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OK people, sorry to have been away so long. Busy thinking (and watching Angel ... ahem). I've got a theory, and I suppose it's about time to air it before a bunch of desperate and scared people start voting for me. And/Orr was kind enough to share his me/Lolita/Bengali theory with me by PM, although it's pretty clear from who he has voted for (Lolita, Bengali, me, in that order) whom he has chosen to blame.
So anyway, I discounted that theory because, duh, I know I'm innocent and I don't see much evidence of Lolita and BiP colluding either (I think one of them even voted for the other at some point? don't have time to check). And Orr, I know we are posting right after each other and you can fuck off. I've been wanting to post this all day and haven't had a second to do so - I finish work at 7 and that's why I'm posting now.
At first I had my suspicions of Maominstoat because he's been a sort of popping-up at crucial-moments eminence grise ... but then I thought no, let's look at the votes and see who's been working together.
First off, in order to save my own neck as much as my deep and (read on) well-founded suspicion of Bitchlaces, I'm going to accuse him. Not because I don't think And/Orr is the closest thing Granton has to a bloodthirsty Italian Stallion, but because I'm damn certain Bitchlaces is mafia. For the record, I reckon that the other two are And/Orr and Qalyn. Sorry boys. It's just a theory, of course, because there is of course no way to know for certain, but I reckon it holds water.
I'm sorry to say, Bitchlaces, that in order to try and work out who the mafia were I started off with the assumption (like you did with BiP) that you were a mafioso and worked from there. Ignoring the first vote for Flyboy, whihc was a landslide except for BB and me accusing each other, during the Todd vote there were only four players who didn;t vote for Todd: these were
Bendt Chromeo (Bitchlaces)
Qalyn (lolita)
And/Orr (lolita)
BiP (lolita)
Interesting to see how early patterns emerge. Clearly the mafia had fixed on an innocent victim pretty early on and thought what the hell, might as well spread some suspicion around while Todd's being hanged.
So BC, our only innocent, had his suspicions of Bitchlaces too - at first. When did all that go away? Was it around the time Qalyn started cosying up to BC as his new best friend? (To be fair, BC also voiced suspicion of pretty much everyone and his dog, but the only person he openly accused was Bitchlaces).
So, BC was trying to establish people's innocence by getting their forwarded villager PMs. I would like to know whether Qalyn saw BC's first, or vice-versa. Was this the first leak? Or did the mafia simply guess at what the PMs contained, take a risk and get away with it? Either way, it was certainly convenient to have one of the mafia thick as theives with our only known innocent, and therefore above suspicion by association.
I seem to remember there was a certain amount of suspicion of Qalyn floating around at that point, and then it all mysteriously drained away. He managed to convince me that a) he was doing things I regarded as suss to protect BC, who had previously told me (falsely) as it turned out) that he was the doctor.
As Qalyn said in his PM to me after Lionheart was killed, this was BC's trap to see if I was mafia - the idea being that if BC had died that night and only I had known he was (or thought he was) the doctor and unable to protect himself, then I was clearly mafia. I know that BC not dying that night doesn't prove anything, but I think it's at least a point in my favour.
But when did BC die? Wasn’t it the next night, just after his “innocent PM” idea - which had so far exonerated all three of the mafia, presumably because they were either very daring or got hold of a clean villager PM – went tits up? Presumably Qalyn, BB and And/Orr realised that from now on BC would prove to be more of a liability than a help and so decided to kill him before he stated getting suspicious of those he had [previously believed to be innocent.
Let’s look at the voting stats for the bjacques lynching – up until then I wasn’t ruling BiP out because she too had gone after lolita with the mafia bloc. But surprise! Who do they turn on next? Why, it’s Bengali! Votes as follows (in chronological order)
BC – bjacques
And/Orr – Bengali
Qalyn - bjacques (it doesn’t matter which one dies, they’re both innocent)
Bjacques – Qalyn
Bitchlaces – Bengali
Me – bjacques
Iszabelle – Bitchlaces (aha!)
Stoatie – Bitchlaces (one of the other reasons I don’t think Stoatie is mafia – the three have never once voted for each other)
Lolita – stoatie
Bengali – bjacques (self-preservation)
Notice how the mafia never vote completely together – it’s always 2 out of 3, and the pair varies as well. Nice work, which is why they’re still alive. Bengali did look suspicious at the beginning, but I never thought a Mafioso would be so dumb as to refuse to cooperate with BC – a one-way ticket to the chair, surely? I’m pretty sure that some of the only people who are clean are the ones who didn’t play along with BC’s PM nonsense. I think that all people like stoatie and Bengali are guilty of is playing a slightly infrequent and thoughtless game – the kind of game you might play if you were a villager, rather than a Mafioso who had to watch every single step they took in case it betrayed them.
So, based on voting and killing patterns, I reckon it’s pretty clear who is trying to steer suspicion away from themselves and onto pretty much anyone else.
Lovely reliable And/Orr, the town’s barman, who has been machinating behind the scenes with a quite unsuspected fury. Didn’t realise he was quite such a mover and shaker – but what is interesting is that if (as I suspect) he was the one spreading rumours about my being mafia (thanks Qalyn – or was that all made up to spook me?) he got some of his evidence wrong. Like:
“Whisky and Flyboy share a PC.”
No we don’t. Flyboy will attest to the fact that he borrows my PC to go on Barbelith occasionally and unless I were reading over his shoulder, I would not be able to see any PM he had from grant. He also has to log off before I can log on so there is literally no way I could have got a villager PM from any source but grant.
Lovely innocent Qalyn. I honestly had no serious suspicions of him until after BC’s death – I guess they thought that maybe BC knew too much or would eventually work out for himself that he had been duped with the villager PMs, and decided to off him, as he was no longer useful.
Bitchlaces – I hardly need to reiterate the times when he’s tried to spread suspicion around, laid false trails, etc. etc. It was all in “helpful villager” mode, rather like Qalyn’s voting stats, but I still think that of the three he is the one I am most certain of.
So there. That’s what I reckon, take it or leave it, please don’t kill me etc. I have already spent far too much time trying to outline my ideas and I hope that at least some of the villagers get what I’m banging on about. I might just possibly be wrong about the other two, but consider my shorts eaten if Bitchlaces isn’t Mafia. And we’ve got to get a Mafioso this time, or we’re stuffed.
In fact, feel free to lynch me if he isn’t, because then I’ll have been totally wrong about everything and won’t even know which way is up. Er, but remember that anyone can make mistakes, etc.
I thank you …
God I need a drink. Barman? (actually, maybe I’ll just go to the bar across the road …) |
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