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Mafia2: The Game Thread

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06:20 / 15.02.03

Okay, I'm just guessing here but I could currenylu assume that Todd and Qualyn are mafia material. Qualyn with his ever-so-doubtful questioning of the mayor's integrity. This could be a plot by the mafia to confuse the villagers. And Todd was ever-so-sure of Flyboy's guilt that it was as if he was trying to syphon the lynch mob towards an innocent to keep his evil buddies safe and sound for the next few rounds.

Those are my CURRENT suspicions. Suspicions come and go but the mafia stays and kills you. That's why I'm keeping my trap shut until I get an epiphany of the sinister underworkings of this puzzle box which we call Granton.

No star here laces

13:08 / 16.02.03

I agree with a lot of the recent posts, and therefore am going to expose myself and go out on a limb and nominate Todd for lynching. He seemed very keen for us all to nominate Flyboy. As there was a chance that Fly was the Doc, no villager would have done so - the mafia would've gone all out to lynch him to give themselves a chance of bagging the real doctor that night even if Fly wasn't the genuine article. Qualyn is the other one I'm suspicious of and notice that neither of these two has cast aspersions in each others' direction yet.

So, Toddy, give me a good reason to withdraw my nomination, and quickly, otherwise I'm sticking by it...

15:39 / 16.02.03

Qalyn is the other one I'm suspicious of and notice that neither of these two has cast aspersions in each others' direction yet.

Hmf. I shouldn't dignify this with a response. I haven't cast any aspersions your way, either, Byron -- in fact, I haven't accused anyone of anything. I proposed one scenario, trying to be helpful, and one strategy to isolate the mafia in the voting process.

To clarify my proposed strategy: We break up into groups. Yes, Whiskey, this could put two or mafia into the same group, but it's unlikely to. Each group chooses one of its own to nominate for lynching, then everyone votes from those suspects. This would put a filter on the lynch vote and, I think, slightly improve the odds of catching a mafioso, but most importantly it would remove any mafia influence on the vote itself... well, it might, anyway. We'd have to set this up right away, though. There's all kinds of ways we could split ourselves up. Alphabetically, for instance, would give us:

And/Orr, BIP, bjacques & Byron;
Chromeo, iszabelle, Lionheart & lolita;
and Maominstoat, Qalyn, Todd & Whiskey Priestess.

16:32 / 16.02.03

Qalyn, I'm an idiot, but wouldn't this be more likely to give us a tie?

16:42 / 16.02.03

Yeah, that's possible this round, though you don't have to vote for "your guy" in the lynch vote. Maybe it's a bad idea -- I just needed to say it out loud.

17:39 / 16.02.03

If I'm remembering how to do my statistics correctly, the odds of getting two mafia in one group are slightly less than one in 20. So that leaves us with one group where there are no mafia (no chance of them picking a mafia to lynch), one group with two mafia (no real likelyhood of them picking a mafia to lynch), and one group with one mafia. Meanwhile, as always, the mafia can communicate with each other, pick targets by committee, and be a threat to the village as a whole.

I'm not sure there's an advantage to groups. There might be a solid disadvantage, in fact... If the mafia are distributed one to a group, they can judge the temper of each group, figure out which one is most likely to vote as a block, and then throw the other two mafia behind that candidate. That's five votes right there (maybe only four, but if they come out hard and fast enough, I don't doubt that one or two people from other groups will also fall in line) and we lose another villager.

It might be an interesting tactic to try to flush out the mafia, but I think it's pretty damn expensive!

19:26 / 16.02.03

iszabelle, I thought observing that kind of behavior might be revealing, but you're right, it's expensive. Okay, ixnay the voting blocs -- my math is screwed up.

Re-reading the thread, I'm not sure why so much weight is falling on Todd. I'm not defending him, mind you. It's possible, but there's no actual reason I can see. I think lolita, BIP, and Lionheart, as late voters, are better suspects.

Are we accusing people yet?

19:30 / 16.02.03

Whups - looking at all possible cases, odds of two mafia in one group seem to come out at around one in three.

I may still be doing this all wrong, but that feels about right... and I still think that dividing us into groups is a bad idea.

STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK

00:18 / 17.02.03

Yeah, I think the grouping idea could be a recipe for mass carnage, and wouldn't necessarily teach us anything.

09:30 / 17.02.03

Like in the movies: NEVER split up!

bjacques nurses an enormous hangover from snorting cooking gas through a mixture of slurry and Klim, not to mention the deleterious effects of that low(est) form of French entertainment, "le Grand Guignol" in a sleazy waterfront dive. "Les yeux sanglantes...AIIIEEEE!!!!" Oh, wait. I'm looking in the mirror. Yet I managed to make it to work today at 6. Every day I don't fall into the slurry tank and the great whirling blades is a good day.

13:57 / 17.02.03

OK, Grantonians, I am now willing to entertain nominations for tonight's lynching. Deliberate further if you must, but we haven't got that long.

To clarify: there are now an even number of villagers, and Enamon was innocent of everything except absence. He had no particular status.

There is no more detective, but there is a doctor at large.

Bendt Chromeo is not part of the Mafia.

Let's see if we can root out those dastardly ne'er-do-wells tonight!

Now, back to work!

Whisky Priestess

16:31 / 17.02.03

Oh my ears and whiskers, such excitement! I'm glad we're not doing that splitting into groups thing though - no offence, boys, but I'd rather not have been in the one with both Todd and Qalyn, and I don't reckon voting in blocs would have helped us narrow it down much anyway.

Has anyone noticed that our plasticine-nosed Mayor now looks like he's in one of those vaseline-lensed glamour shots they advertise for tired old harridans in the back of women's magazines?

I think you look lovely, Mayor Grant. You hardly notice the nose at all now. As for who I think is Mafia, I must ponder a little further before I declare. Sometimes I think I'd be a fool not to nominate Todd, as he's acting in such a suspicious and openly manipulative manner, but sometimes I think that his shameless machinations are just a little too open not to attract suspicion - and that therefore he cannot be a fearful Sicilian sewer-rat avoiding justice. But if not Todd, who else can it be?

I think the Mafia's strategy will be to lie lower than a frog's belly right now and try to escape attention - altho we ought to bear in mind that some players don't have 24-hour internet access, and e.g. the late voters and infrequent posters, if they wish to clear their names, should probably explain why they are behaving as they are.

Speaking of which, has anyone seen our friendly neighbourhood barman, And/Orr, since last night? He was awfully chummy with the ratcatcher, wasn't he? Awfully ... close. Just asking.

16:37 / 17.02.03

WP, I'm with you. Todd was one of the first to sic Da Lench Mobb on poor Doc Flyboy (actually Bendt Chromeo was, but he's confirmed not to be Mafia). I owe the Doc a drink, but since non-slurry tipples are a rarity here, I'll light my spare Sterno can on his grave (I'm making a huge sacrifice here).

J'accuse Todd.

17:13 / 17.02.03

"Methinks the Todd doth protest too much. Not only did he consistently fan the flames against the young Doctor Fly, but he has, since the lynching of that innocent man, sworn that God will forgive him for his part in it. Not to cast aspersions against good Catholics anywhere, but it sounds like he might be accustomed to having heinous sins forgiven.

"He has also, since the unfortunate demise of the ratcatcher, sworn that he'd known Tez was an innocent man and cozied up to Bendt as well as he could, whilst calling on God all the while.

"I'm afraid I'm going to have to accuse Todd as well."

17:32 / 17.02.03

Whisky Priestess:

But if not Todd, who else can it be?

Such a funny question. Why, it could be anyone.

bjacques:

Todd was one of the first to sic Da Lench Mobb on poor Doc Flyboy

So did Tez, our late ratcatcher.

iszabelle:

He has also, since the unfortunate demise of the ratcatcher, sworn that he'd known Tez was an innocent man and cozied up to Bendt as well as he could, whilst calling on God all the while.

I see your logic and yet ...

17:35 / 17.02.03

lolita nation, please stand up.

I suspect you.

Clear your name and cast your vote before I accuse you, please.

Goodness Gracious Meme

19:38 / 17.02.03

*raises glass*

To Work!

Getting mighty stressy round here, ain'it.

I'm not so sure about this Todd business meself, think theres a touch of smoke and mirrors about it, i get a whiff of a campaign... Although there's the odd thing that makes me suspicious, I'm not convinced. Both Qayln and Bitchlaces seem full of accusations and theories at the moment...

(Oh, and re the late posting/voting thing, I have pretty sporadic access to Barbelith. I use net cafes, so can't post before/after certain times, and it depends when I get time. There are probably others in my boat. eg Orr hasn't been around for a bit, and personally I'm not especially suspicious of that... Thought it was worth mentioning as if we're looking at when people are voting we might get led astray if we don't remember this.)

Also, it's a long way from the wrong side of town...And I'm wondering if people are trying to rush the voting for some reason....

Gonna have a final think and come back.

19:44 / 17.02.03

I am not mafia. I wish I was, but I'm not.

19:49 / 17.02.03

Well, that sucks. Ok, I voted late because towards the end of the last lynching, I began to really doubt that Flyboy was mafia. At first I suspected him, but when he stood up and admitted he wasn't the real doctor, I began to have doubts because if he were mafia, why would he do that? So I kept quiet trying to figure out who set Fly up before I voted. I accused Bitchlaces because by that time accusing anyone else would have killed Doc Flyboy. I admit I really suspected Tez, and I feel bad about that. I thought he was mafia trying to pretend he was the detective to gain the trust of the village with his "ratcatcher" schtick; unfortunately, the paranoia got me and he was actually the detective. I don't know why else I'm suspected, but I swear before God and everyone that I'm innocent of everything except bad intuitions.

Todd, this may seem like a left-handed compliment. But I think you're hilarious, and what would be a more hilarious cover for a mafioso than acting Amish? Nothing. So on those grounds and because you were so gung-ho about accusing Flyboy, and because at this point I'm too confused to make heads or tails of all this, I accuse Todd.

19:59 / 17.02.03

lolita, where'd you get the idea Tez was the detective? I had no idea until after he was dead.

20:04 / 17.02.03

Because he kept saying he was the "ratcatcher."

21:12 / 17.02.03

"SHIT!!! I know for sure who is Mafia.

Trusted people, I'll PM you."

"OK, Chromeo, who gets your suspicions? You've given Lolita an easy out... and I think we need to start eliminating the Mafia before they exterminate us. If we lynch another innocent tonight, I suspect you're next on the hit list; you don't have anything to gain by keeping quiet."

The Widow holds her breath for a beat or two, not sure she's done an intelligent thing in speaking out again so soon.

21:34 / 17.02.03

Hmm.

I am in 2 minds about this. I suspected someone but a lack of circumstantial evidence, admittedly, makes it hard to pin down a sound reason.

I can't name the person at the mo, in order for hir to feel more secure that ze's not suspected so until someone accuses hir, I won't.

I'm really close to accusing myself, just to avoid innocent, fictitious villager blood on my hands.

But I'll stall a little bit more.

21:48 / 17.02.03

I accuse Bitchlaces.

Just because.

Doctor, 3 words: don't protect me. Might be funnier that way.

21:49 / 17.02.03

The Widow shakes her head.

"Have you gotten into the Colonel's pills? That makes no sense whatsoever. The point here is to figure out who's Mafia and dispose of them. By voting to lynch them. It's really hard to do that if a) they don't get accused or b) get accused so late in the voting process that there aren't enough votes to remove them."

21:50 / 17.02.03

"ooops... Ignore that belated outburst, please!"

22:06 / 17.02.03

Iszabelle, I don't know how easy an out that was -- all lolita's done is admit that she blew Tez's cover before he was killed. I mean, show of hands, who else was trying to identify the detective?

I'd like to vote for Todd because everyone else seems so sure of him, except that I can't figure out why. Is it just instinct? That seems to be lolita's reason, and it's a good enough one, I suppose. I think it's just because he's been noisy -- that seems to be the reason I'm suspected, too, even though people keep saying the mafia will play it quiet. But I have a hard time going on instinct, especially when, as far as I'm concerned, lolita has two strikes against her (1, late voter; 2, had a reason to kill Tez). They're not very convincing strikes, though.

Can anyone come up with an actual reason to accuse anyone else?

22:20 / 17.02.03

Qalyn, why does "late voter" = mafia? To me it seems like people's alliances come out in who they accuse, so I just thought I was being prudent by voting with the most information possible.

22:28 / 17.02.03

It's more of a rule of thumb than a hard-n-fast principal -- I wouldn't accuse someone on the strength of that alone -- but the best way for the mafia to play would be to keep quiet and use their votes late, to swing the heat where they want it, away from them or towards their goat. They wouldn't want to leave traces of any 'alliance' in the voting stats, so would hold off and claim they were just AFK. I mean, tonight's stats will probably look wildly different from last night's, so what will we learn about alliegences?

All things being equal, that is, which they aren't, necessarily.

Whisky Priestess

23:17 / 17.02.03

A quick message tapped out in Morse code on the pipes leading up from the cellar tells Whisky Priestess that And/Orr, suspiciously absent for a while, has in fact managed to trap himself in the cellar of the Welcum Inn and is trying to drink his way out. He promises that by the time Barbelith recognises his new ISP - I mean, he batters his way out with a bottle of Baileys - he'll be ready to vote and bearing a burning brand for the lynching.

Whisky meanwhile, will sleep on her opinions and cogitate further tomorrow. Calumnise me for a late voter if you like, but I'm not going to have the blood of an innocent on my hands if I can help it. So ner.

23:21 / 17.02.03

I keep coming this close to accusing Todd. Most of my reasons are of the nature of lolita's (ie, external-to-thread stuff, like that he said out loud what I just said to lolita, so that the rule-of-thumb is reversed for him, and that grant is just kooky enough to make the former mayor mafia) and, of course, I'd like to distance myself from him -- y'all seem to have me and him fitted up together for our noisiness, but I know I'm innocent. At least four other people know it, too. What prevents me, basically, is that if we lynch him and he's clean, you'll all turn on me. Granton can afford one bad lynching at this point but two in a row would be pushing our luck. For this reason, plus suspicions mentioned above, and because I must accuse someone, I'm going to accuse lolita.

Chromeo, obviously the doctor must protect you -- you're the only killable person whose death reveals nothing about the mafia.

Now, if only the doctor could protect me from this goddam lynchmob. Git back, you rabble! I was decorated at Nanking!

01:09 / 18.02.03

The Widow shakes her head again.

"I put up my suspicions on the basis of what people say... how they behave. And I'm always suspicious of shaky logic. In the absence of questionable behavior, though, I'm forced to assume innocence based on the odds. It's why I didn't vote for lynching Doc Flyboy.

"From what's been said, Lolita made an educated guess, based on what Tez said. Precisely what I've been doing - interpreting things people say and do. That's not exactly blowing his cover. And she would only have a reason to want Tez dead if she was Mafia, so you're using circular logic to attack her.

"As far as your status goes, only four other people can know what you are with certainty now that our detective is dead. And that's a maximum; there may only be three others... You've pushed a hazardous strategy that looks suspiciously like "divide and conquer," in addition to casting aspersions on a known innocent and confusing the issue of whether or not Tez was a "real" detective.

"The only people who have voiced specific suspicions of you are Lionheart and Byron Bitchlaces. Why, then, Now, if only the doctor could protect me from this goddam lynchmob? The lynchmob, such as it is, is leaning towards Todd. Is he Mafia?? Are you so afraid you'll be next??"

02:07 / 18.02.03

Word, iszabelle.

02:10 / 18.02.03

The lynchmob, such as it is, is leaning towards Todd. Is he Mafia?? Are you so afraid you'll be next??"

As it stands, I fear I'm next either way: at least three people have said my name in the same breath as his.

If my logic is shaky, iszabelle, it's because I'm a fool, not because I'm guilty. I accused lolita because she's the only one here I could see any reason to accuse -- I said myself that the reason wasn't very convincing -- and because I personally couldn't afford to take a chance on Todd.

If anything, I've been the only one here willing to put himself in harm's way, knowing that whoever opens his mouth around here comes under suspicion, to protect the rest. When I "cast aspersions" on Chromeo I was trying to protect him by giving the mafia a reason not to kill him, but grant put the kibosh on it (which is his prerogative). I can't really comment on the "late voter" issue any more without ruining any advantage Granton might get from it -- if it's not already ruined, of course. Finally, I didn't "push" a strategy, I proposed one. When you proved it faulty, I abandoned it. Perhaps you were confused by the "ixnay?" It's Punjabi for "never mind."

Really, don't you think a mafioso would be quieter about this?

only four other people can know what you are with certainty

There are four who know and a fifth who has reason to believe me.

I'm off for a nap. Wake me when the lynching starts.

No star here laces

08:28 / 18.02.03

Well, I'm sticking by my vote for Todd - I just can't get over his enthusiasm to lynch Flyboy. Only a mafioso could be that sure in the first round.

And people who voted for me, I might point out that I was practically the only person urging y'all not to vote for the innocent villager last time round. Now why would I do that if I were mafia, eh?

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