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Is Bush going to Win?

 
  

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Professor Silly
07:27 / 05.09.04
man, this has been a fascinating read....

A good posibility would have Kerry winning California and New York, while Bush takes Ohio and Florida. This could give Kerry a popular vote victory of 1 to 2 million votes and still give a electoral vote victory to Bush.

I don't think we can really predict it...it all might boil down to
who
actully
goes
and
votes.

Imagine it though--if Bush wins in the manner above we will have a lot of people looking to change the election laws. With Bush pushing for a radical shift in tax law, maybe we'll see a shift to State Law away from Federal Law.

...or maybe I'm just being too optimitic....

and would that mean Sen. Clinton might take it in 2008?
 
 
Baz Auckland
12:39 / 05.09.04
Do you think if Bill Clinton dies next week, it will help her chances? Maybe even give Kerry a boost?
 
 
---
13:12 / 05.09.04
Also, if GW himself is to be believed (HAHAHAHA, ahem, excuse me) he will continue to carry out his preemptive strike policies wherever he deems necessary. Syria? Iran? Who knows.

That's the main reason why i thought that Americans would definately get him out of the Whitehouse. I just see more dead innocents and i feel sick, angry and tired of it all.
 
 
+#'s, - names
15:33 / 05.09.04
Just curious what the British are doing to get Tony Blair out of office. He made it damn easy for America. I would have to say a large part of the blame could rest on his shoulders.
 
 
sleazenation
16:11 / 05.09.04
I think the problem for many voters in the UK is that they want to keep the labor party in government but don't want Blair as leader of the party and thus Prime Minister. Unfortunately the general electorate don't have a say over the leadership of any political party - and in the case of the Labor party I believe its only members of the Labor party and the Unions have a voice in that selection process.
 
 
+#'s, - names
17:31 / 05.09.04
Well, that is completelly absurd. You have Tony Blair whispering pieces of intelligence into Bush's ear that he really wants to hear, Saddam Hussein, yadda yadda, WMD, etc,, Bush gives the state of the union speech and mentions it, gets the ball rolling,and we have this giant mess in Iraq now. So, even though the head of the labor party is in collusion with Bush, pretty much acts like his puppet, he gets a pass.

Sure, United States policy effects everyone, but it looks like British policy effect everyone also.
 
 
Nobody's girl
18:37 / 05.09.04
Just curious what the British are doing to get Tony Blair out of office.

Heh. Well, it's a slightly different matter. You see, Tony IS our Kerry (in that he is the more left wing option). As much as I despise all that Anthony and his posh school mates stand for, they are actually the better option. At least you guys can hope for better. Enjoy it while you can.
 
 
+#'s, - names
19:00 / 05.09.04
The UK has its own sorry mess to work out. Maybe we need a seperate thread to get me to understand the gist of it.

But here in Ohio, notorious now for its swing state status, driving down the highway today I saw 9 cars with Kerry/Edwards stickers, as oppossed to 3 cars with Bush/Satan stickers, so it looks like out of the people who like to plaster shit on their cars Kerry is ahead.
 
 
sleazenation
21:34 / 05.09.04
I don't think the poles can be relied upon for anything at this point other than to generate headlines. Don't be discouraged. Register to vote NOW. Vote in November. Don't let anyone tell you its a waste of time. You have two months to change America.
 
 
Malle Babbe
02:27 / 06.09.04
The thing that depresses me most about my personal reaction to the campaigns is that I feel like I'm losing all faith in the idea that people can be reasoned with.

You're not the only one Sally. I currently reside in the red part of a blue state (Pennsylvania, and before US 'lithers ask, no I have never voted for Rick Santorum). My folks watch Fox News all the time, I sit and listen to the Beeb on the Internet. No shouting matches in the house, but I have been able to point out to my mother that Bush 2.0 that he is serving 2 masters with regard to world events (ie. wanting to appear Strong On Terror while at the same time beholden to a voting base that salivates whenever it seems that WW3 might start in the Middle East)

I think the big thing in the US has been, w/ the exception of Clinton, 25+ solid years of the Democratic party feeling that the best thing to do every 4 years is to appoint the blandest, bloodless, most palid guy they can find and have him run for president. This tactic has infected state elections as well (CF Davis v. Schwartzenegger). The vision of FDR? The charisma of JFK? The cunning of LBJ? Nope, they seem to believe they don't need that; instead they have adopted the policy of looking guiltily at the Republican Party and mumbling "I'm sorry, did my ass hurt your foot?"

Until such time the Dems study how the Reps whipped themselves into shape after losing in 1964, they won't get anywhere. While it can be said the the "Southern Strategy" appealed to baser aspects in people's nature, the Reps figuring out that real change coming from writing checks and stuffing envelopes rather than artsy protests that look cool on the street but weird at best and stupid at worst on the TV got Ronald Reagan in the White House and the US on a rightward bent.

Getting involved in your local schoolboard and voting in any election, no matter how "insignificant" (that perception is what got the anti-evolution crowd in power in an alarming number of states) isn't as "sexy" aa publicly mooning the President, but it gets the job done.

That, and telling every potential Nader voter that they probably won't be able to read Chomsky on the re-education camps.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
07:02 / 06.09.04
The vision of FDR? The charisma of JFK? The cunning of LBJ? Nope, they seem to believe they don't need that; instead they have adopted the policy of looking guiltily at the Republican Party and mumbling "I'm sorry, did my ass hurt your foot?"

Is Clinton the exception proving the rule, there, or do you feel he was also uncharismatic? For that matter, Bush 41 wasn't exactly Ted Nugent...
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
09:50 / 06.09.04
Just curious what the British are doing to get Tony Blair out of office. He made it damn easy for America. I would have to say a large part of the blame could rest on his shoulders.

Quick primer for those unfamiliar with how parliamentary democracy functions in the UK. There is no direct vote for the leader of a political party. The leadership is, along with policies, local government and various other considerations, supposed to be taken into account when you cast your vote for the person you want to represent your constituency, and thus yourself.

Got that? There is no way to vote directly for a Presidential-style leader. You elect your parliamentary representative, not the leader. This is because the Prime Minister is precisely that - the head of a cabinet of a party with a majority delivered by popular vote. Our head of state is not elected, but a hereditary monarch.

With me so far? Excellent. Now, one way to exert pressure on the party is to make it clear that a key factor preventing you from voting, or for voting New Labour (or, if you prefer, the Labour Party), is the leadership. At that point, it becomes in the best interests of the parliamentary representatives to get rid of the leader and replace him or her with a leader more likely to persuade people to cast their vote for the party's parliamentary representative. This happened with Margaret Thatcher, who lost the support of the people, leading to a leadership contest in which it was made clear that the party no longer had faith in her ability to keep them in jobs come the next election.

So, how do you make that clear to your representatives? You go on massive demonstrations, you write to your MP, you phone to cancel your membership of the Labour Party, explaining precisely why and what would make you rejoin... in general, you communicate that Blair has become a vote-loser rather than a vote-winner.

On the down side, this system does not allow the people to choose their Prime Minister directly, as one does a President (electoral college notwithstanding). On the up side, it means that the leadership of the party can be changed even when there is not a general election...

Bear in mind, however, that there is no electable party in the UK with anti-war leadership per se, although Michael Howard has now cast doubt on whether he would have voted for the war if he had known then what he knows now. Having said which, Michael Howard is a nutterh.

To address the second apotropaism, it seems to me unlikely that Blair, ultimately, had the power to enable or prevent the US invasion of Iraq that Number Nun seems to imagine. It is deeply embarrassing that he colluded in the supply of either incorrect or maliciously false information that impacted the parliamentary vote on whether or not the UK should go to war itself, and also possibly the US decision to go into Iraq, and I imagine he is as hacked off as you are that, after he went to all the trouble of trying to negotiate a means by which the operation could proceed with UN authority, Bush went in without, probably due to a misunderstanding of how to handle France. However, Bush and co. were gung-ho to invade Iraq *anyway*. It's deeply unfortunate that the British parliament backed the wrong horse on this one, but to believe that the UK's position was ultimately the deciding factor for Bush on whether or not to invade Iraq gives our humble island a degree of power it has not enjoyed for a long time.
 
 
PatrickMM
01:41 / 07.09.04
Also, on a slightly less snarky note, a lot of Bush's supporters (in fact, practically all of them) seem to be buying heavily into the idea that criticizing him in any way is a crime and a completely amoral. So no matter what the question is, they answer that Bush will do a better job.

Very true, and it really bothers me. The Dixie Chicks say they're embarressed Bush is from Texas, and they're villified. The Swift Boat groups basically say Kerry was a traitor, and people are still holding them up as national heroes. How can the same people who say the Dixie Chicks are traitors stand by and watch Kerry's very real service being questioned? It's so hypocritical, and the right never gets called on it.
 
 
Malle Babbe
02:13 / 07.09.04
The vision of FDR? The charisma of JFK? The cunning of LBJ? Nope, they seem to believe they don't need that; instead they have adopted the policy of looking guiltily at the Republican Party and mumbling "I'm sorry, did my ass hurt your foot?"

Is Clinton the exception proving the rule, there, or do you feel he was also uncharismatic? For that matter, Bush 41 wasn't exactly Ted Nugent...


Yeah, I was using Clinton as an example of Dems finally getting a clue as to the type of person they need to put forth as a candidate. As for Bush 1.0, he was kind of noodly, but he was borrowing Reagan's mantle and planted the "Dukakis is wishy-washy" meme into people's heads.
 
 
Slim
03:21 / 07.09.04
I'm starting to believe Johnny was right and that Bush will win the election. It's as if Kerry himself has given up. He's letting the Republicans control the political debate and has gone on the defensive, the worst possible thing he could have done. I may not like the Republican party but I respect the fact that when the party wants to do something, it gets it done. Right now they want to crush Kerry and they're doing a pretty damn good job of it.
Kerry, like a moron, is still running on his anti-Bush campaign, hoping no one will care what he stands for as long as he says he won't be like Bush. Apparently no one has told him the free ride is over and it's time to finally make clear his views on various issues. Unless he does so in the debates Bush's double-digit lead will only grow.

On a separate note, if other countries and their citizens are so unhappy with America, why not boycott American products or attempt to impose some sort of economic sanctions on the US? It's easy to attack American voters but I don't see any other nation (aside from Iraq) willing to face the wrath of the US government either. I'm not saying that I support such an action, I'm just curious as to why this hasn't been attempted.
 
 
Professor Silly
03:43 / 07.09.04
Bare in mind that Kerry was at a distinct disadvantage through the month of August. Once a party has their convention and officially nominates their candidate they can only use federal money set aside for the election. Since the Democrats had their convention first it allowed the Republicans to continue using their (record-breaking) campaign funds to attack Kerry and to give themselves a much more slick and effective convention. Now that both conventions are over the two candidates have equal amounts of money to spend until the election.

...of course, the Republicans can still use all that extra money in "527" ads...but then the Democrats have moveon.org (also a "527" group) on their side.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
07:18 / 07.09.04
On a separate note, if other countries and their citizens are so unhappy with America, why not boycott American products or attempt to impose some sort of economic sanctions on the US?

Steel tariffs, 2003.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
08:30 / 07.09.04
It's easy to attack American voters but I don't see any other nation (aside from Iraq) willing to face the wrath of the US government either.

Define "attack American voters". One of the interesting things about this campaign is the Republican argument that voting for Kerry is actually unpatriotic - that is, failure to vote for Bush is an attack on America. You guys seem to be having some problems working out what is an attack and what is discussion, debate and the normal function of a democracy.

Further, define "face the wrath". France and Spain have very obviously failed to support US foreign policy. Attempts to impose protectionist trade tariffs have been met with resistance. However, that resistance came from Europe as a trading entity, which rather highlights one of the problems - the US has enormous economic power, against which there is almost no counterbalance, just as it has enormous military power etc, which is why, say, Syria might be averse to "facing the wrath" in a more focused and military way. North Korea, on the other hand, is refusing to follow the will of the US fairly frequently, both because it has nukes and because it is utterly desperate.

Meanwhile, the Kerry campaign seems to be getting a bit of momentum back after the RNC...

During the event in Canonsburg, Kerry was heckled by a small but noisy group of Bush supporters. But he managed to pull something out of Clinton's bag of tricks. When Kerry began talking about how the average family's tax burden has risen during the past four years, a man shouted, "Yeah, you're average, Kerry!" In response, Kerry adopted the tactic that Clinton used at the Democratic convention in Boston: He embraced his affluence. "Just to answer that guy, 'cause he's right," Kerry said. "I'm privileged," just like President Bush. As a result, "My tax burden went down," Kerry said. "And I don't think that's right. I think your tax burden ought to go down."

That's a nice Clintonian touch, and it's also bringing the economy to bear... arguing about whether Bush's tax cuts have created "a single job" is fine rhetoric but ultimately butters no parsnips. Talking about how the tax cuts have measurably failed to improve the condition of the average American, and have created a massive deficit with far-reaching implications for servicing the national debt and providing services to, again, the average US citizen is a much smarter tack.

Ultimately, the religious right is never going to vote for Kerry. Hardcore Republicans are not going to vote for Kerry. His best shot is to engage the enlightened self-interest of US citizens who want to feel better ecnomically, have better access to medicare and still feel that the danger of terrorist attack is being controlled...
 
 
+#'s, - names
10:56 / 07.09.04
Steel tariffs, 2003.
Have to do better than that. Steel tariffs were set up to protest the US's own steel tariffs against other countries.
And everyone knows, steel is becoming a dead industry in the US anyways.
Try tariffing Hollywood and the video game industry instead.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
11:36 / 07.09.04
The steel tariffs I mentioned *were* those imposed by the Bush administration to protect the US steel industry from being undercut. These were not answered by steel tariffs (think through the economics there), but by threatened tariffs on the products of swing states - orange juice, farming machinery, textiles, shoes and so on. In the face of this, Bush abandoned the steel tariffs, claiming that they had achieved their objective of giving the US steel industry time to reorganise itself and become competitive. As you observe, this was rather a face-saving manoeuvre.
 
 
Jack The Bodiless
11:57 / 07.09.04
Or perhaps just avoid posting abbreviated responses with no verb, maximising the chance of someone misunderstanding you?

Unless that was redressing the balance after your tortuous explanation of the UK democratic process, after sleaze had already answered the query in one paragraph...
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
12:06 / 07.09.04
... and received the response:

Well, that is completelly absurd. You have Tony Blair whispering pieces of intelligence into Bush's ear that he really wants to hear, Saddam Hussein, yadda yadda, WMD, etc,, Bush gives the state of the union speech and mentions it, gets the ball rolling,and we have this giant mess in Iraq now. So, even though the head of the labor party is in collusion with Bush, pretty much acts like his puppet, he gets a pass.

Sure, United States policy effects everyone, but it looks like British policy effect everyone also.


Which suggested that sleaze's post needed further clarification. However, I will clean up my latest post to spare feelings. Moderation request has gone in.

Now, Jack, I am really not interested in dealing once again with whatever issues impel you to pick fights and demand my attention on Barbelith while being a perfect gentleman off it. I don't understand it, and I doubt I ever shall, but I see no reason to indulge it. So, any thoughts on the election, or are you just here for the sneers?
 
 
ibis the being
22:17 / 07.09.04
I'm starting to believe Johnny was right and that Bush will win the election. It's as if Kerry himself has given up. He's letting the Republicans control the political debate and has gone on the defensive, the worst possible thing he could have done.

I confess this has got me feeling a bit pessimistic as well. It infuriates me the way Kerry repeatedly defends his Vietnam record rather than pointing out that the whole Vietnam issue is just a massive distraction, an attack on his character that is repugnant, yes, but basically irrelevant. After Bush's RNC speech Kerry "lashed out" by saying that he refused to accept attacks on his military service by those who refused to serve. Which is all well and good, but damn it! Stop falling for their dirty tricks!

And not to repeat Slim, but the Republicans are just incredibly good at this stuff. The whole GOP campaign is like an episode of the Rush Limbaugh show - the way they're controlling the discussion, manipulating the oppositions' words and actions, deftly changing the subject or changing tack when they're confronted, baiting and switching. The Dems appear to have become disoriented.
 
 
Simplist
05:21 / 08.09.04
Rasmussen tracking poll as of 9/7:

Bush 47.3%
Kerry 47.3%
Other 2.4%
Not Sure 3.0%

Big relief if borne out in subsequent days.
 
 
Bomb The Past
07:56 / 08.09.04
Those poll results are echoed by the latest Zogby International poll too, reported by The Guardian. They seem to think that the polling was complicated by it being Labour Day which always messes up results due to people going on holiday. So, much relief all round.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
07:58 / 08.09.04
After Bush's RNC speech Kerry "lashed out" by saying that he refused to accept attacks on his military service by those who refused to serve.

Actually, I think that was probably the way to go earlier. Kerry could have said that if the Republicans want to question his record they should talk to the superior officers who wrote it, and meanwhile that Bush and Cheney's records show that they were doing everything in their power to avoid risking their lives for their country, and then repeated as necessary.

The GP *are* good at this, because the GOP is the nasty party - imagine what they would have done after 9/11 if Gore had been in the White House...

But anyway, it looks like Kerry is changing his angle of attack to Bush's domestic record - deficit, underfunding in education, unemployment. I suspect that "W for Wrong" may actually still be a bit too anti-Bush; I know it seems insane, but I think it would be easier in many ways to sell the US voters the idea that Bush is not a bad guy, he did his best but was unable to control either the economy, the war on terror or the special interests, and it was time to retire him before he and the United States suffered more for it.
 
 
sleazenation
08:49 / 08.09.04
...And, sure, he is an honourable man.
I speak not to disprove what Dubya spoke,
But here I am to speak what I do know.
 
 
Simplist
17:30 / 09.09.04
Nader Off Florida Ballot

This is great news (with the caveat that the decision could be reversed on appeal), as the election is pretty clearly going to be decided in Florida once again. I've been watching that Electoral Vote Predictor for a couple of weeks now, and Florida's the only consistently undecided state with enough votes to swing the election. The only time either candidate tops the 270 necessary to win is when Florida swings temporarily into their column.
 
 
Jack The Bodiless
00:23 / 11.09.04
Now, Jack, I am really not interested in dealing once again with whatever issues impel you to pick fights and demand my attention on Barbelith while being a perfect gentleman off it. I don't understand it, and I doubt I ever shall, but I see no reason to indulge it. So, any thoughts on the election, or are you just here for the sneers?

Actually, I wasn't picking a fight, just pointing out what appeared to be a certain inconsistency. You've clarified it, so fine. And if I appeared to be spoiling for a fight, I apologise.

I have a feeling that this is still Kerry's election to lose. His campaign so far has been lacklustre at best, and he still hasn't given middle America a reason to vote for him over Bush. Bush, horrendous though he and his campaign may be, has told everyone what he stands for. Has Kerry? I don't think so. Not yet, anyway - but it's relatively early days yet. Election's in November...
 
 
sleazenation
10:18 / 11.09.04
By the By can a mod change the title of this thread to something like

Is Bush going to Win?

At the moment it just feels like negative reinforcement...
 
 
Pingle!Pop
14:01 / 11.09.04
The only time either candidate tops the 270 necessary to win is when Florida swings temporarily into their column.

As of 4pm (GMT), Saturday 11th:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 273 Bush 233

... With Florida "exactly tied", and therefore attributed to neither candidate.

*Looks vaguely hopeful for a short while*...
 
 
Nobody's girl
15:09 / 11.09.04
By the By can a mod change the title of this thread to something like

Is Bush going to Win?

At the moment it just feels like negative reinforcement...


I second the motion.
 
 
Simplist
17:58 / 11.09.04
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 273 Bush 233

... With Florida "exactly tied", and therefore attributed to neither candidate.


Well, cool! I hereby revise my previous statement to read "Florida and Pennsylvania" (PA went from tied yesterday to barely Kerry today). Does look a bit more hopeful...
 
 
w1rebaby
20:52 / 11.09.04
If polls were consistently one way or the other I might pay attention to them, but right now I consider them as effective a way of predicting any eventual outcome as tossing coins. I wish the media wouldn't push them constantly as if each one was big news - but I've said before that the US media is obsessed with arcane and proof-free prediction mechanisms, comparing poll figures now to poll figures in previous campaigns, "no president has ever won with polls being X% behind Y days after event Z". This does not work. You might as well use methods such as "who has the most royal bloodline" and "who is the tallest candidate".

All that the polls are telling me right now is that it could go one way or the other. I freely admit to not having a clue. I'm not that impressed by the Democrats, I think they consistently give up control of the agenda to the Republican machine in a way that they could avoid, and they're handicapped by their craven performance over Iraq in the past, but they don't have to fight entirely on the basis of their own merits - the "anyone but Bush" contingent is strong, and even if the Democrats don't properly capitalise on them, Bush's error, lies and failures work against him.
 
 
Source
17:58 / 12.09.04
I just cannot fathom what kind of person would vote for this man after everything that has happened.

He freely and openly admits that he's a "war president" and that makes Americans vote for him??? What kind of stupid sh*t is this?

He says stupid sh*t like: "too many ob-gyn's are unable to practice their love with women all across this country" on live TV and people think that this is the man to run the most powerful country on the planet?

He fucks-over the American economy beyond repair, after Bill Clinton did such a great job with it and this is the man Americans want to have in power??

This is pathetic.
 
  

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