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Is Bush going to Win?

 
  

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ibis the being
18:02 / 22.09.04
well, shit, diz, I think you converted me. but you know, in a funny way the theory you've outlined is actually the more optimistic one, because it's betting that the Reps will eventually get called out on destroyed the country/world, and that Democrats actually stand a chance at all, albeit in the future.

the hostage crisis: America looks weak because we let these brown guys with funny names walk all over us. the answer: fuck the Ayatollah, fuck Saddam, fuck (insert name of scapegoat du jour here)

you forgot - the catchphrase of the century - WE DO NOT NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS.
 
 
diz
20:02 / 22.09.04
well, shit, diz, I think you converted me.

well, thanks, even if i don't know if i'm converted myself. i just thought it was worth making a pitch as a Devil's Advocate kind of thing, if for no other reason.

but you know, in a funny way the theory you've outlined is actually the more optimistic one, because it's betting that the Reps will eventually get called out on destroyed the country/world,

i agree that it's the more optimistic one, and that's kind of the big hurdle for me, because i worry that that optimism on this point in particular may not be justified. if you told me five years ago that the general public would put up with secret trials, detention camps, mass round-ups of immigrants, torture, suspension of civil rights, a massive war of aggression, etc, i might have balked, but they seem to be pulling it off pretty well so far.

the pessimistic scenario would be that the American public will never "get it," and America will just slide into economic collapse and authoritarianism, still railing against the godless liberals who have laid them low.

you forgot - the catchphrase of the century - WE DO NOT NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS.

i was flying home on family issues a few weeks ago, and i was on JetBlue, so i got sucked into watching Deborah Norville on MSNBC or whatever crap "news" network she's on. she was having a discussion on the Beslan massacre.

one of the panelists was a Russian policy expert from some university or other, and he seemed to have a pretty thorough grasp of the issues. he explained a lot of the issues relating to Chechen separatism and the war there and so on, and Norville waited patiently for him to finish, before asking him "What do we know about these people, and most importantly, why would they do such a horrible thing?"

he kind of looked at her for a second as if to say "i just finished explaining this, you bleached-blonde twit" and managed to stammer out "there's a war going on there."

she asked what Putin could do to stop this sort of thing from happening, and he outlined a detailed plan that basically revolved around opening up bilateral negotiations on the issue of Chechen separatism with Maskhadov's government in exile, explaining that, unlike al-Qaeda and other Islamic terrorist organizations which are diffused and ultimately stateless, there was an identifiable leader of the separatist movement, who had been democratically elected, and who regularly condemns separatist terrorism. he's clearly someone who's just sitting there waiting to be engaged diplomatically.

she pounced on him and said in this totally dismissive tone "But Putin already addressed that! He said 'why don't you just negotiate with bin Laden?'"

he looked like steam was going to come out of his ears, answering tersely that there's actually an answer to that question, and that the answer is that the Chechen separatist movement and al-Qaeda are (shocker) different types of organizations, and as a result, the situations are different. he starts to explain the whole Maskhadov thing again, and she just cuts him off again and asked why we should expect anyone to negotiate with terrorists.

i wanted to punch the screen, but i thought that the guy sitting in front of me would probably not appreciate that. it's just amazing how deeply that simple catchphrase (WE DO NOT NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS) has penetrated the American psyche, to the point where it's just axiomatic and any argument to the contrary is met with blank, uncomprehending stares.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
18:25 / 23.09.04
Might be worth checking out who voted against the UN General Assembly's condemnation of the illegal actions taken by the USA against Nicaragua also...

Finally got around to doing this. The results were very interesting.
 
 
flufeemunk effluvia
21:34 / 24.09.04
Where did you find that? I've been poking around with no luck.

It does make me curious.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
22:31 / 24.09.04
http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Nicaragua_v._United_States#How_the_Judges_voted

A little looking around lead me there, which has a quick review of the situation and tells how the Judges voted (looks like the U.K. and Japan were by and large the most sympathetic to the U.S.). But really, any search engine will find plenty of stuff with "Nicaragua+World Court+U.S.".
 
 
FinderWolf
01:18 / 02.10.04
After that debate last night, Bush looks like he might be floundering a bit, and Kerry certainly got a boost.

And speaking of the World Court, Bush's repetition of his stance on the International Criminal Court in the debate was a pretty dumb move on his part. I think even the dumbest American might think "Hey, if every other major country is part of this court, why not America? Could it be we have something to hide, that we're guilty of things we don't want to be prosecuted for...?"

And the next debates are on domestic issues, which are Kerry's strength and DEFINITELY Bush's weakness. Bush has fucked up just about every domestic issue there is.
 
 
Jack Fear
10:48 / 02.10.04
And speaking of the World Court, Bush's repetition of his stance on the International Criminal Court in the debate was a pretty dumb move on his part. I think even the dumbest American might think "Hey, if every other major country is part of this court, why not America? Could it be we have something to hide, that we're guilty of things we don't want to be prosecuted for...?"

To be fair, Bush inherited this stance—and the faulres to sign on to the Kyoto accords and the internation landmine treaty—from the Clinton administration. There was remarkably little hue & cry about it then, and I don't expect much now.

I think you'll find that, deep in his patriotic heart, Joe Lunchpail really does believe that the USA is a special country that cannot and should not be subject to the same rules as, y'know, all those other countries. Other countries need rules and treaties, but the USA is different (read: better).
 
 
*
14:49 / 02.10.04
Ooh. Somebody broke into Bush's campaign office. I bet it was those nasty Kerry supporters.

Seriously. The Bush campaigners are backed into a corner and need to salvage whatever they can. While Kerry supporters are mostly riding high right now from the debates. The timing is rather suspicious, and not for lib Dems.
 
 
*
14:51 / 02.10.04
State Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance called it a "Watergate-style break in" and said he suspects Democrats are behind it.

"If you're just some burglar looking for computers to sell to buy drugs you take every laptop in the office maybe," he said. "But they knew exactly whose computers to get. They got the executive director's computer and the get-out-the-vote director's computer."


Emphasis mine.
 
 
ibis the being
21:22 / 02.10.04
I think you'll find that, deep in his patriotic heart, Joe Lunchpail really does believe that the USA is a special country that cannot and should not be subject to the same rules as, y'know, all those other countries. Other countries need rules and treaties, but the USA is different (read: better).

I don't think you've been hanging out with many Joe Lunchpails lately. It's not at all deep - it's bubbling right up through his patriotic mouth, from what I've been hearing.
 
 
Mazarine
22:02 / 02.10.04
According to Newsweek's poll Bush has completely lost his eleven point lead.
 
 
diz
04:40 / 04.10.04
I don't think you've been hanging out with many Joe Lunchpails lately. It's not at all deep - it's bubbling right up through his patriotic mouth, from what I've been hearing.

that's my experience as well. try suggesting to anyone but the most liberal that you think that US soldiers should be subject to trials in courts run by foreigners, that you think that a foreign judge should be able to send US soldiers to prison for things they do in the military, and see how far you get.

now extend that to US military officers and even elected US political leaders and see who's left in the room.
 
 
FinderWolf
14:06 / 04.10.04
Dead heat now in the polls!

I notice the media doesn't seem to be following or even mentioning the Republican office break-in story...
 
 
ibis the being
14:36 / 04.10.04
The latest Newsweek poll shows
Kerry 47%
Bush 45%
Nader 2%

Grr...Nader.....
 
 
*
14:53 / 04.10.04
A friend of a friend, who is an old rich white guy and a wealthy lawyer, and a diehard Republican, said he would vote for Kerry after watching the debate. He said he still doesn't agree with Kerry on everything, but now has no confidence in Bush's ability to lead or make decisions.

Little and late-- but better than none and never.
 
 
Mazarine
15:00 / 04.10.04
I notice the media doesn't seem to be following or even mentioning the Republican office break-in story...

I bet they did it themselves. The Dems are too smart to throw a rock through a window and take two computers, they'd send a couple youthful miscreants to pick the lock and pop in with several key-chain flash drives and lock up on the way out.
 
 
diz
15:37 / 04.10.04
He said he still doesn't agree with Kerry on everything, but now has no confidence in Bush's ability to lead or make decisions.

it bothers me that this doesn't bother more people. all the insider accounts that have come out in the past year or so talk about how he totally freezes in one-on-one meetings and ends up doing the whole deer-in-the-headlights blank stare when put on the spot without Rove or Cheney or Rice around to tell him what to think. now, he does it on live international TV, and half the electorate doesn't seem to mind. the man's head is visibly empty, and no one cares.

I notice the media doesn't seem to be following or even mentioning the Republican office break-in story...

I bet they did it themselves. The Dems are too smart to throw a rock through a window and take two computers, they'd send a couple youthful miscreants to pick the lock and pop in with several key-chain flash drives and lock up on the way out.


i'm sure they did it themselves, just like i'm sure the faked National Guard memos were their handiwork, too.

they can't lose with this one, either. if the media doesn't cover it, it goes in the Great Liberal Media conspiracy file and becomes an article of faith among the base supporters.
 
 
FinderWolf
16:47 / 04.10.04
Everyone seems to forget (or gloss over in their news stories) that the secretary of the now-deceased guy who was a commander at Bush's national guard posts has repeatedly said that even though the CBS memos were forgeries, THEIR CONTENTS WERE ENTIRELY ACCURATE and she remembers her boss repeatedly saying to her (and writing documents to the effect of) how annoyed he was at the special treatment Bush was getting & how annoying and lazy Bush was.

Yahoo has a main headline story now about Arab-Americans in Florida coming together to register previously-unregistered Arab-American voters, demonstrate and make a furious push to oust Bush. Nice!
 
 
FinderWolf
16:52 / 04.10.04
As for those polls, I've seen several polls that have Nader at 1%, not 2%. Polls are really general anyway, and most of them aren't really polling large expanses of people. But even so, I hate Nader forever, even moreso this time around.
 
 
FinderWolf
17:59 / 04.10.04
Yahoo is carrying the Fox fake story about Kerry as a main-headline (when I say that I mean it's one of the 4 or 5 stories on their main home page):

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20041003/ts_alt_afp/us_vote_kerry_media_041003210627
 
 
ibis the being
19:55 / 04.10.04
Anyone in need of a cheer-up?

One of Yahoo's Top News Stories reports that an unprecendented number of new voters are registering!

And they're attributing it to Democratic and non-partisan (read- anti-Bushies, I bet) grassroots efforts. Notably, the biggest numbers of new registered voters are coming from urban and minority-dominated areas of swing states - sweet. This really warms my crusty little pessimistic heart!
 
 
FinderWolf
20:06 / 04.10.04
I saw this in a Yahoo news article and had to laugh:

>> In July, in an essay posted on anncoulter.com, Coulter grouped Moore "along with Al Franken, George Soros, Crazy Al Gore (news - web sites) and the rest of the characters from the climactic devil-worshipping scene in Rosemary's Baby" as providing the muscle for the Kerry campaign.

People joke about Bush & Co. being "evil," but how you can say 'those liberals are eeevilll!!!" with a straight face, much less say they're like cultists in Rosemary's Baby, is truly beyond me.
 
 
Information in formation
22:01 / 04.10.04
Perhaps I'm repeating something already said (admittedly I didn't read the whole thread, just perused it). But it seems to me that it no longer matters in America wether or not a candidate wins the popular vote. 2000 set a vary dangerous precedent about how one can take office without having the vote. And now it's even reasier to cheat the election, with the major push to automize the electoral system and the lack of transparency in the companies making the machines... not to mention that the Diebold corporation--leading manufacturers of electronic voting machines--is also a major GOP supporter and financial backer, and the sketchy policies surrounding voter registration taking place in Florida again (deja vu anyone?). It seems to me that unless a startling majority people came out to vote Democrat this year all across the country it won't matter wether or not you vote at all simply because of the ease with wich the Bush jaunta thumbs their noses at laws and policies that don't immediatly serve their best interests.

Tom Delay is a great example of this as it GWB's record as governor of Texas. That's not to say don't vote. If you are American then you should vote in November even if you never vote in another election in your life. All I'm saying is have a plain ticket booked for somewhere very, very far away because unless you are white, protestant and a millionaire and Junior gets back in you will be shafted in the worst possible way.
 
 
ibis the being
23:14 / 04.10.04
That's not to say don't vote. If you are American then you should vote in November even if you never vote in another election in your life.

I think we've all pretty much agreed that this is the bottom line in a sense. However, to address your other points -

As I posted above, it appears quite possible that a record number of people are going to come out and vote for Kerry. Grassroots efforts to register people in swing states are beginning to pay off. Even in MA, today when my bf went to City Hall to reregister (he's moved), he was told he'll probably not get anything in the mail about it because they're swamped with voter registrations. People are mobilizing. Thanks PDiddy!

As far as computer voting and other tweaking and cheating, admittedly it's sort of a "hope for the best" situation. But, maybe I'm just Charlie Brown going after the football here, I *hope* if there's any kind of scandal in this election there are going to be earthshaking riots.

As for the electoral college, well, we all know about that. The only answer is to bring in big numbers for Kerry, and don't believe that's not possible. These last 29 days are the most important in the whole campaign, and look at Kerry gaining ground while Bush flubbers and flounders.
 
 
diz
02:08 / 05.10.04
Rumsfeld backs off al Qaeda assertions

Also concedes WMD claims about Iraq were proved wrong

...

When asked about any connection between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda, Rumsfeld said, "To my knowledge, I have not seen any strong, hard evidence that links the two."


dollars to donuts this ends up having no effect on the polls.
 
 
A fall of geckos
12:38 / 05.10.04
And now, Rumsfeld backs off backing off al Qaeda assertions.

"In a statement issued several hours after he had told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York that "to my knowledge, I have not seen any strong, hard evidence that links the two", Mr Rumsfeld claimed he had been "misunderstood".

"I have acknowledged since September 2002 that there were ties between al-Qaida and Iraq," the statement said. "This assessment was based upon points provided to me by [the] then CIA director George Tenet to describe the CIA's understanding of the al-Qaida Iraq relationship.""

What the hell was happening here?
Was he trying to cover his back? Was this just a mistake similar to his confusion on the difference between Saddam and Bin Ladin? Is it possible that they've given up laying down points based on a party line and are now trying to confuse us into voting for them?
 
 
alas
16:56 / 05.10.04
Bremer: More troops were needed after Saddam's ouster

Rumsfeld: Intelligence on weapons of mass destruction wrong

Tuesday, October 5, 2004 Posted: 11:31 AM EDT (1531 GMT)

(CNN) -- The former U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq says the United States "paid a big price" for not having enough troops on the ground after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime.


thoughts? I think both Bremer's critique and the Rumsfeld statement, however "flip floppingly" denied, could be important and could "stick" to Bush to some degree--the momentum feels like it is, for the moment, moving in Kerry's direction.

The debate tonight between Cheney and Edwards comes at a very interesting time, in relation to all this.
 
 
FinderWolf
18:16 / 05.10.04
Tonight is gonna be hilarious. I can't imagine Cheney coming off well.
 
 
FinderWolf
19:54 / 05.10.04
Wow, people are PISSED! Or just plain psycho:

>> NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Reuters) - A Bush-Cheney campaign office in Knoxville, Tennessee was hit by at least two gunshots apparently fired from a passing vehicle on Tuesday but no one was hurt, police said.

This story is getting some play on the mainstream media. They don't know much more at this point.
 
 
Foust is SO authentic
00:08 / 06.10.04
I hope it's Republicans pullling dumbass stunts like that.

If it's anti-Bushers, then they need to be dumped into the new active Mt. St. Helen's along with Nader.
 
 
Keith, like a scientist
02:59 / 06.10.04
tonight's debate with cheney and edwards didn't go quite so well as the kerry and bush one did. at least for us non-republicans...

i hate myself for thinking so, but edwards came off as full of rhetoric, but not much substance, while cheney came off as completely calm, in control, well informed and well prepared...it was frightening to see Cheney Vader totally command that debate...just re-affirmed the idea that he is clearly the President, and Bush is a total figurehead patsy. I didn't find too much to be excited about with Edwards. it's a shame...but Cheney kind of schooled him. didn't help that Edwards tripped over his words worse than Bush.

let's hope Kerry ups the ante friday night and builds upon his success last week...the vice presidental debate is one i think democrats would sooner brush under the table.
 
 
FinderWolf
03:24 / 06.10.04
I didn't think Cheney did as well as you think he did, although there's no doubt this wasn't a trouncing like the first debate was. Although Cheney clearly had more facts and experience at his disposal, Edwards was far more persuasive, interesting, human, compelling, and clearly pointed out the many fallacies of the Bush/Cheney administration. I was glad Edwards got in some facts about the reality of life in Afghanistan now -- it, too, is not the rosy picture the Bush admin. would have us believe.

While the media and many people feel Kerry/Bush debate #1 was a clear Kerry win, I think the spin on this will be that Edwards did more than a little better than Cheney but Cheney did a decent job of mostly holding his own.
 
 
FinderWolf
14:25 / 06.10.04
I'd love to see a VADER/PALPATINE '04 bumper sticker somehow parodying Bush & Cheney.
 
 
FinderWolf
20:07 / 06.10.04
>> Muslims seek bloc vote for US election

Wed Oct 6,10:40 AM ET U.S. National - AFP

BRIDGEVIEW, United States (AFP) - US Muslims have embarked on a vast drive get the community registered to vote in the presidential election to build what could be a potentially powerful voice in deciding the winner.

The war on terror launched by President George W. Bush (news - web sites) after the September 11, 2001 attacks has antagonized huge numbers of the estimated six million Muslim Americans.

Concerns about US foreign policy in the Middle East have been replaced with concerns about their own civil rights among Muslim leaders who are now seeking to get as many people registered as possible.
--------------------------------------
 
 
FinderWolf
15:46 / 07.10.04
CNN.com

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The United States, accustomed to giving advice on democracy, is in the unfamiliar position of getting some from international election observers schooled in Tajikistan, Ethiopia and other emerging democracies.

Two observer groups have been examining U.S. voting systems for compliance with international standards for free and fair elections.

The very idea disgusts some Republicans, who say it sends a message of weakness and compromises U.S. sovereignty. (Special Report: America Votes 2004)

Some Democrats say the scrutiny is overdue.

Former President Carter, for one, has said some U.S. voting systems don't meet international standards "even as many other nations are conducting elections that are internationally certified to be transparent, honest and fair." (Disabled hail e-voting despite doubts)

The observers already have found problems typical in countries with far less than 200 years of voting experience.
 
  

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