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Is Bush going to Win?

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diz

16:12 / 02.11.04

you know, there is a set of circumstances where, under some sort of weird electoral bylaws in some part of New Mexico, NM's electoral votes can granted on the basis of a card game or other game of chance. i can't remember how, exactly, it came up, but someone mentioned it as a long-shot possibility back in 2000. if there are any scenarios where NM's electoral votes decide the election, the fate of the world could rest on a poker game in some dusty corner of New Mexico.

that would be the most surreal high-stakes card game in the history of the world. it would totally blow Celebrity Poker Showdown out of the water, i'll tell you that much.

Jack Fear

16:51 / 02.11.04

Well, Kerry's poker face beats Blinky's any day. Thank God for Botox.

Yotsuba & Benjamin!

18:24 / 02.11.04

And now we enter the really dangerous and completely insane portion of our day:

Exit Polls Arrive.

grant

18:44 / 02.11.04

Now, the question of the topic title gets asked in earnest.

Funny -- CNN is refusing to put these up yet. Word around my office: "Everyone is gunshy!"

Florida, according to Wonkette's source, is 50-49 favoring Kerry.

Does anyone know what the statistical margin-of-error is in Florida's election, stated as a percent of the total vote?

Yotsuba & Benjamin!

18:55 / 02.11.04

I filled out one of those electoral map interactive thingies and if these are an accurate indication of the eventual results, then wow. Kerry by over three hundo, electorally. We shall see, though. I don't get why there are aparrently two Wisconsin results, though. Unless WI is supposed to be something else.

FinderWolf

19:12 / 02.11.04

The current Electoral College Predictor (linked earlier in this thread, I believe) has Kerry with 292 votes, Bush with 291. Of course, it's only a projector.

Ethan Hawke

19:12 / 02.11.04

The major news organizations have signed an agreement not to broadcast/publish early exit polls. They'll only start after polls close in each state; however, according to jacob Weisberg at Slate.com, which is publishing exit polls as they get them, it's not hard to divine what the polls are saying from how the anchors are talking about the race, particularly when in gets late in the day.

We're The Great Old Ones Now

19:19 / 02.11.04

Er... doesn't that make more votes than there are?

FinderWolf

19:22 / 02.11.04

Sorry, just checked it again and it says 262 and 261, not 292 and 291.

Yotsuba & Benjamin!

19:24 / 02.11.04

That is/was a fantastic article, outlining stuff I'd never realized. It will be very interesting to see how all this plays out, now that Blogs have erased any and all clothing from the media emperor in this race. I gotta say, I am fucking riveted at this point. The right-sided bloggers are going apeshit, the left-side is sort of guardedly optimistic, but everyone is writing, everyone is reacting. I have to say I am so stoked that so many people are voting. No matter what happens, who wins, this looks like, by all counts, it will end up in a solid victory for someone. The stock market seems to agree. Honestly, that's what I wanted most, no matter who won. Just a solid look at what America really thinks. Am I the only one who is heartened by all this turnout, no matter what the result?

Mister Six, whom all the girls

19:46 / 02.11.04

Has anyone seen this?? 60% voter turnout, the largest since 1968!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=amF9UBsj1Ops&refer=top_world_news

Yotsuba & Benjamin!

19:51 / 02.11.04

A lot of people are actually predicting to go even higher still. Fucking spectacular.

Mister Six, whom all the girls

19:59 / 02.11.04

Yeah, but still it's a deadheat! How is that even possible???

FinderWolf

20:31 / 02.11.04

CBS MarketWatch
U.S. stocks jarred by early call favoring Kerry
Tuesday November 2, 3:41 pm ET
By Mark Cotton

Yahoo News

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks staged a sharp reversal Tuesday, with blue chips sliding into negative territory and the Nasdaq paring gains amid reports that John Kerry is putting in a strong early showing at the polls.

"The only thing I can see is that the Drudge Report shows the preliminary exit polls showing Kerry within striking distance," said Jay Suskind, director of trading of Ryan, Beck & Co.

Miller Tabak equity strategist Peter Boockvar said there was a "sort of panic" as traders heard the news of Kerry's lead.

FinderWolf

20:40 / 02.11.04

Yahoo News says there aren't many Republican challenges to voters and that it's going pretty smoothly on that front..

--

Both parties took advantage of the ruling, but there were only a few reports of challengers disputing people's registrations.

Some GOP challengers compared the names of people voting with lists of absentee voters and people who died recently. Others from both parties helped direct voters to their correct precinct if they were in the wrong ones.

"Things seem to be going smoothly," Democratic party spokesman Myron Marlin said.

About 90 percent of the 3,500 challengers registered by Republicans showed up to work the polling places, said Mark Weaver, a lawyer for the Ohio GOP. Democrats say they have thousands of challengers but will not give a specific number.

Keith, like a scientist

23:03 / 02.11.04

lfjlajflajdlbjbl!!!!

News is not good for Ohio.

Senator Voinovich (Rep) wins. Issue 1 (Same Sex Marriage Ban Amendment) passes.

I'm so fucking disappointed in my state right now.

TeN

23:42 / 02.11.04

Fuck! The turnout is fucking incredible!
Hopefully this translates to Kerry wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
And have you seen the exit polls in the southern states?! They're actually close! The southern states are never close!
Now, just imagine if Kerry were to lose enough swing states to lose the election, but still win an extraordinarily large (70% or more) percentage of the popular vote... 2000 all over again... but crazier.

As for the same-sex marraige ban, i would bet that it passes (by a rather large majority at that) in all states that it's being proposed in. Even most of the young liberals that I've talked to support it. Disturbing. Very disturbing.

Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero

00:19 / 03.11.04

It passed in Michigan not twenty minutes ago.

Mister Six, whom all the girls

00:41 / 03.11.04

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3708482

2:02am (UK)

In parts of west Pennsylvania, the authorities allowed polls to stay open an hour and a half longer than scheduled as people remained in queues to vote.

The election hit its first potential snag when a judge issued a temporary restraining order on counting tens of thousands of absentee ballots in Pennsylvania, CNN reported.

Republicans asked for the order, saying authorities in the city of Philadelphia did not provide a full list of absentee voters for Republicans to potentially challenge.

The decision meant the votes could not be counted until at least 2.30pm GMT.

If the race goes down to the result in Pennsylvania, the outcome of the election could effectively be decided in the courts, as it was with in the case of Florida in 2000.

In Florida itself, CNN reported that 65,000 absentee ballots would not be counted until Thursday.

... fuck me blind.

Foust is SO authentic

00:55 / 03.11.04

Currently 170 to 112, for Bush.

The world awaits.

Mister Six, whom all the girls

01:01 / 03.11.04

176 to 112

big smelly Bush.

Baz Auckland

01:03 / 03.11.04

On the bright side in Pennsylvania, Kerry seems to have received about 65% of the vote, so no re-counts needed there...

subcultureofone

01:13 / 03.11.04

182 bush
112 kerry
arrrgh

Mister Six, whom all the girls

01:14 / 03.11.04

I know... I know... somebody give me some good news here!

Mister Six, whom all the girls

01:16 / 03.11.04

193 to 112... sinking...

Mister Six, whom all the girls

01:20 / 03.11.04

Come on, somebody jog my memory that all Kerry has to do is get NH and OH and he's golden.

Mister Six, whom all the girls

01:38 / 03.11.04

Any clue as to why Kerry is frozen at 112?

subcultureofone

01:42 / 03.11.04

we're waiting for states with larger blocs of electoral votes

Mister Six, whom all the girls

01:55 / 03.11.04

FINALLY, up to 133.

Mister Six, whom all the girls

02:01 / 03.11.04

197 to 188! Now this is getting better.

PatrickMM

02:20 / 03.11.04

As expected, it's basically up to Ohio and Florida. I'm not sure that this is a good thing. Florida has 94% of the results in, and is 52% Bush, but we'll see. You've got to hope.

subcultureofone

02:24 / 03.11.04

dammit, florida is going to screw things up again. what is wrong with my neighbors!?!

Mister Six, whom all the girls

02:26 / 03.11.04

I'm goin to bed... wake me when this is over... in about a week? I smell lawsuits and day-old coffee for the days to come with no clear winner until about a week of nonsense...

goodnight!

Apparently, Bush has won Florida. Not good, it's still possible for Kerry to win, but he needs Ohio and pretty much every other state. We'll see.

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