BARBELITH underground
 

Subcultural engagement for the 21st Century...
Barbelith is a new kind of community (find out more)...
You can login or register.


Is Bush going to Win?

 
  

Page: 1(2)34567... 10

 
 
Ganesh
00:58 / 31.08.04
Hoping you don't mind, Dzfactor, but I've quoted your post in its entirety as the basis of a Cross+Flame discussion. 'Cause I thought it was full o'perspicacity.
 
 
PatrickMM
04:08 / 31.08.04
Should he be re-elected, George Bush will teach America an important lesson. The fact that people are dying for less than noble causes, rights are being removed, and jobs are being lost doesn't make that lesson any less important. It's a tragedy and it sucks, but people will learn from it. And maybe, when this is all over, the average american voter will be that much smarter. They'll know what happens when you vote a fool like Bush into the White House and fail to get him out of it when he and his crew prove to be even more amoral than anyone thought. Maybe it's an example of learning a lesson the hard way, but hey, there's no more complete way of learning a lesson.

I've heard people saying this a lot, and I just don't think it's true. If elected, Bush probably will do a lot of really bad things, but I don't think it's going to convince the masses that the direction he's leading the country in is not good. He blatantly lied to start a war, and even when we found out he was lying, nobody cared. There's much more coverage of the Swift Boat Veteran groups than there was for the fact that Bush lied to us to start a war.

The reason I couldn't see Bush ever getting really taken down is because the right completely controls the political agenda of the country. This entire campaign is about the military. The entire democratic convention was about how to keep the country safe, nothing about social change, and that's becuase of the way that Bush molded the campaign. He chose the issues that would be discussed, and as long as things keep going this way, the country's only going to get pushed further right. Note that despite the fact that Bush is the most conservative president ever probably, Kerry is the one who gets called liberal.

So, as long as Bush controls the game, people aren't going to be convinced of how dangerous he is.
 
 
Simplist
17:05 / 31.08.04
Based on analysis of current polling data, it's not looking good for Bush.

Might want to check that link again, Flux; Kerry was ahead yesterday, but the analysis changes daily as new polls come in. As of right now, Bush has more than enough electoral votes to win decisively: http://www.electoral-vote.com
 
 
Simplist
17:16 / 31.08.04
Examining that map more closely, I see that what changed since yesterday is that Florida is now listed as "barely Bush" whereas yesterday it was "exactly tied". Being from Florida myself, I tend to keep an eye on things there, and polls have consistently trended toward Bush, albeit usually only by a few percentage points; that plus a certain amount of Republican chicanery on election day will very likely put Florida, with its 40 electoral votes, solidly in the Bush column.
 
 
sleazenation
19:16 / 31.08.04
I would hope that especially after the fiasco in Florida four years ago that Democrats and non-partisans are making DAMN sure that no-one has been 'accidentally' dumped of the the electorial roll and are actively registeriing voters as well as ensuring that they can verify that the voting machines are all in proper working order.
 
 
Cherielabombe
20:06 / 31.08.04
I'm sorry you guys, I don't really have much of any intelligience to add here, and I'm not in the States right now so I'm not being banged over the head with all this crap from all sides but it just depresses the hell out of me that it sounds as if everyone is handing the election over to Bush before it's even fucking happened. Aaargh! My mom is the same, every time I call her. As Jesse Jackson once said, "KEEP HOPE ALIVE!" I'm sorry but I have to believe, I just *have* to believe that we CAN get rid of the fucker. Kerry isn't my ideal candidate but I'll be voting for him (by absentee, so hopefully my vote will count this time..). Heck I'd probably vote for a trained monkey over W.

I'm sorry but c'mon, the guy has protesters trailing him everywhere he goes. When I was in Minneapolis this summer, over 1000 protesters turned up in Duluth just to heckle him at his fund-raising event (which was only attended by about 3000 hand-picked Republicans). And don't tell me those crowds in New York are all pissed off New Yorkers (though I'm sure they are among that number).

There IS a sizeable opposition to Bush. And if enough of us VOTE, we may just be able to get the fucker out. The higher the lead over W, the more difficult it will be for the Republicans to steal this election (less than that, not so much).

But come ON! Let's not throw in the towel just yet!
 
 
---
20:44 / 31.08.04
As of right now, Bush has more than enough electoral votes to win decisively: http://www.electoral-vote.com

I feel fucking ill. I can't believe i've just seen that he appears to be winning so much. It scares the shit out of me to think what that man would have to do to make the majority of America realize that he's the wrong person to be president.

Ok, it's not as if Kelly's going to be Mr love and light, but man that's unbelievable. If the last election was a scam though and he's had years to twist things to his own ends, how can anyone even trust that those are the genuine votes?

Can we call him The Anti-Christ yet? I just can't believe those are real votes. Can someone convince me how those can be real? I just assumed that like here with Blair, the majority wanted him out. I'm pretty sure that's the case here anyway.
 
 
Mazarine
21:55 / 31.08.04
I am now in North Carolina, a "weak Bush" state, and I see almost exactly the same number of Kerry/Edwards stickers as Bush/Cheney or "W" stickers. No Nader stickers though.

It seems like many of the people who support Bush find his religion to be a big appeal, and I read a lot about how people like how his faith is so strong. I think that's one of those concepts you can't fully understand unless you're really in it. As one who does not believe that God will guide a Christian (or member of any other religion for that matter) to making the ideal decisions in any given arena, especially when that arena is world politics, the whole concept of a leader's faith being his primary appeal just does not compute.

One friend who was a lifelong Republican until I talked him into voting for Perot (cut me some slack, I was like, twelve, I'm embarrassed enough) said "The thought of voting for John Kerry frankly nauseates me, but at this point, I feel like I don't have a choice."

My hope (naive though it almost certainly is) is that a lot of people planning on voting for Kerry just aren't being very vocal about it, either because they don't want to deal with the highly polarized and adamant elements on either side of the election to be all over them until November, or because they, like my friend, are nauseated by the fact that they feel they have to. More likely, these people are just planning on not voting at all.

My suspicion (like that of many others, paranoid though it may be) is that they've got Osama bin Laden in a bunker some place and are planning to let him out onto the White House lawn and let Bush shoot him with the gun they found on Saddam Hussein when they caught him.

If Kerry could somehow convince people that he's a better Christian than Bush, I think he'd have it sewn up, but the campaign seems to be going for the issues and reason angle. Let's hope it doesn't bite him in the ass.
 
 
Slim
22:04 / 31.08.04
I don't trust that electoral-vote website. I live in Pennsylvania which is listed as for Bush or as a tie. I have to disagree. The indicators I'm seeing are that we'll once again vote Democrat, just like the state did in 2000.
 
 
ibis the being
23:05 / 31.08.04
Nader's just got on the ballot today in Florida. Now there is a man who doesn't care about his country.
 
 
Slim
03:00 / 01.09.04
That's a ridiculous comment, don't you think? He gives people who don't like Bush or Kerry someone to vote for. Shame on him for allowing a third party into the American democratic system?
 
 
Mazarine
04:18 / 01.09.04
I'm a little perplexed as to why Nader didn't run Green, like he did last time around. Part of his selling point was that if the Greens got enough votes, they'd receive federal funding. Now he's all over the place, including having snuggle time with Pat Buchanan and the Reform Party, and the Greens are backing Cobb. I'm reading up on the topic at the moment, but I am pretty confused.
 
 
flufeemunk effluvia
12:33 / 01.09.04
The Greens are adopting a "safe state policy", meaning that they're getting on the ballot only in the solidly liberal states where Kerry is more than likely to win. Nader, on the other hand, wanted none of this. I'm pretty sure that guy thinks both candidates are just as bad as one another. Nader has a history of disagreeing with both the Democrats and the Republicans.

Also, a note from the electoral map site:

A couple of words of warning however. For some states, like Florida and Ohio, there are lots of data points and the regression line is quite believeable. However, in a few states, such as Oklahoma the data are scarce and noisy. The regression line for Oklahome predicts a tiny Kerry victory there, which is exceedingly unlikely. But if you look at the graph, you can see that the line looks completely plausible: Bush has lost ground there. As more polls become available, the fewer states will have a prediction that is clearly not going to happen. For the moment, I wouldn't take this map too seriously, but a month from now it might be a good indicator.

DOnt take that map too seriously at the moment, becaus epolling data is terribly inconsistent.
 
 
w1rebaby
12:54 / 01.09.04
I heard from someone in the Green heirarchy that they weren't prepared to have a candidate who didn't go through the proper selection channels, was voted for etc, and Nader just wanted to be declared candidate without any of that.
 
 
grant
15:31 / 01.09.04
Nader's line is that he couldn't afford to wait for the Green convention, which was late in the season, to declare his candidacy. I can't remember if it was a fundraising thing or a national deadline or what.

as well as ensuring that they can verify that the voting machines are all in proper working order.

%What, you mean those computers? Oh, I'm sure the technical people will have those all figured out. I mean, it's just too confusing for us ordinary folks.%
 
 
Matthew Fluxington
19:12 / 01.09.04
It's worth noting that a lot of polls are going in Bush's favor because we are in the middle of the Republican convention - Kerry surged ahead on that thing during the Democratic convention. I'm not saying that it's impossible that Bush could keep that momentum going, but it's reasonable to expect things to go back to being quite tight or in Kerry's favor before too long.
 
 
Matthew Fluxington
19:26 / 01.09.04
It does really sicken me that so many people are being cowed by this administration and its thugs into hopelessness and pessimism. If you give up, you let them win. You are their bitch. They own you, and have destroyed you. Have some fucking self respect, okay?

Learn from them, and learn how to turn ideas and opinions into truth by repeating them. If you tell enough people that the Democrats will win, they PROBABLY WILL. Never show weakness in public or in debate. Never admit anything. Just beat them over the head with KERRY WILL WIN and BUSH WILL BE SHAMED. That meme is important to spread.
 
 
solomon
20:48 / 01.09.04
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!
WHAT!?!?! GET OFFF YOUR ASSES!EVERYBODY GET UP AND DO SOMETHING WHILE YOU STILL HAVE THE CHANCE! FOR THE LOVE OF ***** ******* ***, SOMEBODY STOP THEM! IS THIS ALL A HORRIBLE NIGHTMARE? IS THE FATE OF THE WORLD REALLY OUT OF OUR CONTROL? CAN THE HUMAN RACE NOT AGREE ON ANYTHING? IS THIS REAL OR ARE WE JUST WATCHING IT ON TV LIKE A SOAP OPERA FROM HELLL?

*Ahem* Sorry about that, but i feel very strongly as a Canadian who is not elligible to vote for the "leader of the free world". Now i know how it felt to be an austrian in 1939.
please vote againat bush. i implore you. if the rest of the world could vote in a fair election, this electionn, Bush would get about 2% . Canadians are polled at about &)% against bush. Africa wouldn't vote for him, Venezuela woln't vote for him, etc. I can't think of another country where bush could win.
 
 
sleazenation
20:58 / 01.09.04
Solomon - two things

1) You do realise that Austria was annexed by germany in 1938 don't you?

2) Please can you avoid leaving large pointless empty gaps in your posts in future

cheers
 
 
ibis the being
21:57 / 01.09.04
That's a ridiculous comment, don't you think? [Nader] gives people who don't like Bush or Kerry someone to vote for. Shame on him for allowing a third party into the American democratic system?

I don't think it's ridiculous at all. You may disagree with me, and I'm not going to try to shove my opinion down your throat, but I think it's perfectly reasonable and not ridiculous to say that someone who would divert votes from Kerry (and that too is a rational if not proven or undebatable assertion) to no actual gain other than his personal advancement and notoriety, while helping to reelect a religous fanatic, doesn't care about the future of his country or countrymen. Again, you may disagree with that view but it's not patently absurd.

It's not as though we don't know we could vote for someone else. It's that we have this long-standing two party system that isn't going to change overnight, and in which it's really best to choose your battles if you're going to try to upheave this colossus. Perot, for example, got a lot of votes, but (arguably) that was a less critical time in terms of key domestic and foreign policy issues.
 
 
Cherielabombe
13:50 / 02.09.04
Just want to say that everyone who is able to vote in this election should register to do so. It's not too late. And anyone who knows anyone who isn't registered should take them down to the voter registration place and get themselves registered. It's not too late, and it is relatively easy to vote once you're registered.

Come on people!
 
 
alas
14:51 / 02.09.04
Today I really am feeling more hopeful--maybe it was just the knowledge that probably about a half million people showed up for the first day of RNC protests in NYC. Ok right that's a drop in the bucket of the votes we need, but I think there may be more of us out there than the polls are getting. And maybe it's because I'm going to the Kerry speech/rally in Ohio tonight at midnight and I'll be shouting "four more months" with the rest of them. Everyday my daughter goes out and canvases for Kerry votes in this swingy state.

And maybe it's also that I recently re-read this quotation that I pulled from Tony Kushner's speech at Vassar College two years ago (it might be available on The Nation magazine's website, in the archives if you are interested:

" . . . hope isn't a choice, it's a moral obligation, a human obligation, an obligation to the cells in your body. Hope is a function of those cells, it's a bodily function the same as breathing and eating and sleeping. Hope is not naïve, hope grapples endlessly with despair. Real, vivid, powerful, thunderclap hope, like the soul, is at home in darkness, is divided; but lose your hope and you lose your soul, and you don't want to do that, trust me, even if you haven't got a soul, and who knows, you shouldn't be careless about it. Will the world end if you act? Who can say? Will you lose your soul, your democratic-citizen soul, if you don't act, if you don't organize? I guarantee it. And you will feel really embarrassed at your ten-year class reunion. People will point, I promise you; people always know when a person has lost his soul. And no one likes a zombie, even if, from time to time, people will date them. "  
                ~~Tony Kushner, "A Word to the Graduates: Organize,"  May 26, 2002, Vassar College


[I'm sorry I can't just let this drop: Believe it or not, Nader's polling data shows that he pulls equally from Dems and Republicans (many of whom are NOT happy with the WBush administration--out of control debt, radical interventionism, his radical religious rhetoric, or issues around immigration--but can't quite vote democrat), so I genuinely think he's a non-issue. The enemy is Bush Bush and Bush. And the enemy should also be the basic slothfulness of the democratic party which has gotten too fat on corporate dollars to be as forceful on populist issues as it once was: In Florida in 2000, about 97000 people voted for Nader, yes. But about 300,000 registered Democrats voted for Bush--of course, whether that's what a few of them in Dade county intended is open to question. The Democrats, in my opinion, should be more focused on getting those voters back and making sure that their votes count! I'm ashamed that they did nothing in 2000 about the massive disenfranchisement of especially African American voters. Nader is, in my opinion, a very distracting, very red herring for the Democrats.

Finally, look at his whole career before you call him unpatriotic--he's been taking on corporate greed, fighting for and gaining real, tangible consumer protection of real people, since before you were born. If you haven't been killed in a car wreck, you owe your continued existence in part to his work. My point: He's still heroic to many liberal voters, even some who disagree with his decision to run. I think the Republicans are making a tactical error in their shabby treatment of John McCain that will later come back to haunt them, and I see a similar kind of miscalculation on the Democrats' part if they let villify Nader and let his campaign distract them into focusing their energies on him and not on the real enemies.)
 
 
Hieronymus
19:33 / 02.09.04
"And in Oregon, where Mr. Nader recently became a featured guest on right-wing radio, two conservative organizations phoned their members to urge their attendance at a state petitioning convention in Portland. Leaders of Citizens for a Sound Economy and the Oregon Family Council explained bluntly that they have no use for Mr. Nader -- except as an instrument to siphon votes from John Kerry."

"Officials from two groups that have been calling members -- the Oregon Family Council and Citizens for a Sound Economy -- said they had no qualms about trying to help Nader despite opposing most of what he stands for."

"Nader, at a debate with Dean at the National Press Club in Washington, called for the end of "the commercial interests ... that have turned Washington into corporate-occupied territory,'' but he said he had no intention of returning the checks from Republican contributors."

"Nader insisted his campaign had been based on 'freedom of conscience' and his ability to get out a message 'without the trappings of special interest commercial cash.' He charged Republicans and Democrats 'have gone along with big business,' which he said was the real threat to democracy and free elections in this country.

The consumer advocate, who has often been critical of the role of such deep-pocketed donors in the political arena, said wealthy contributors 'are human beings too.'"


Fuck Ralph Nader.

No offense to those who intend to vote for this egomanical shill but his outright courting of Republican money and Republican help utterly invalidates any respect I may have had for the man. He knows he's getting in bed with Republicans who are wanting another term for Bush and he doesn't care.

This is not a viable third alternative to the Dems and the Repubs. This is an attempt by the Right to exploit the Leftist tendency to be divisional. And people who don't know better are buying into it.
 
 
w1rebaby
22:03 / 02.09.04
What we really need here is a right-wing candidate more appealing to different wings of the Republican party than Bush.

Free marketeers and small government fans don't like him. They already call him a liberal, not unsurprisingly given his massive spending. He has been trying to hang onto support from the social conservatives but not all of them are happy with him either, he's not extreme enough. Split those two groups off with fringe candidates and you're well on your way to splitting the Republican vote.

The whole thing does make the idea that you can appoint one man who will fairly represent the entire country for four years seem utterly stupid, of course, but then it is.
 
 
flufeemunk effluvia
23:03 / 02.09.04
Jesse Ventura was going to run reform party in 2000, but somehow Pat Buchanan and his neonazi freinds managed to infiltrate the party and basically disgust anyone interested, including Ventura. Ventura would have been like Perot only better.
 
 
Tom Tit's Tot: A Girl!
23:49 / 02.09.04
Being an American living in the UK, I tend to look into the election possibilities as best I can. Here's something interesting...



Now, I don't know if it's still featured, and I'll be damned if I'm going to become a member, but recently on the Gallup Poll website they had an article that predicted a Kerry victory. How? Well, it seems that a couple months ago Kerry was ahead of Bush in the polls. According to the Gallup organization, an incumbent president that is behind his challenger in polls during ANY point of the 12 months leading up to the election has NEVER been elected.


I'm hoping this is correct, because if Bush wins I may be forced to kill people.

Although, if this is to be believed, the tallest is most likely to win.... GO KERRY! THE CANDIDATE I FIND SLIGHTLY LESS HATEFUL!



In related news, yesterday I posted my application for my absentee ballot for the election. Yes, for the first time ever, I'm a registered voter.


Who says this election isn't getting people involved?
 
 
Simplist
17:09 / 03.09.04
What we really need here is a right-wing candidate more appealing to different wings of the Republican party than Bush.

As is often observed, the Libertarian Party is just a celebrity candidate away from Nadering the Republicans right out of their "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" constituency, as well as all the smaller government/less regulation types, the anti-tax wing, conservative isolationist/peaceniks, and secular folk of conservative leanings who are put off by the religious orientation of the current Republican establishment. They'd likely pull some Democratic votes too (the Libertarian Party is waaaaay more socially liberal than the Democratic Party), but the Republicans would be much harder hit.

Alternately, the nomination of a more moderate/secular Republican for president in 2008 (John McCain, for instance) could trigger a religious-based third-party challenge, sapping away the Christian Coalition vote. Either way the Republicans would be sunk, though obviously a Libertarian challenge would have healthier effects on the culture than a religious one in terms of the spreading of healthy vs. unhealthy memes via mainstream news coverage.
 
 
Simplist
19:18 / 03.09.04
I'm officially sick to my stomach...

Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead

Bush: 52%
Kerry: 41%
Nader: 3%

Poll conducted over the last three days of the Republican convention, but still, that's one serious "bounce".
 
 
Skeleton Camera
19:42 / 03.09.04
Isn't the question still, if he does win, what will happen to the RedWhitenBlue?

I for one do not think he will win. But what if he does? Aside from the abstract considerations of "a lesson" and a continuing body count? Does the Constitution stand a chance? Or will it turn into One Nation Under Buy Stuff?
 
 
ibis the being
22:06 / 03.09.04
I for one do not think he will win. But what if he does? Aside from the abstract considerations of "a lesson" and a continuing body count? Does the Constitution stand a chance? Or will it turn into One Nation Under Buy Stuff?

Well, it depends on who you're asking, of course. But one thing's almost for certain - two or three Supreme Court Justices are going to retire, and Bush will fill the slots with conservatives, likely to be (socially) far right like himself. Bush has already proposing an amendment to the Constitution that would "define" marriage. And right now Ashcroft is aggressively pushing an antiabortion law through the court system (according to Planned Parenthood). The law, which would ban ALL abortion past the first trimester regardless of a threat to the woman's health, and of course, has been ruled unconstitutional - but the plan is to appeal and appeal, gaining public attention, so that by the time it gets to the Supreme Court there will be a new Supreme Court.

Also, if GW himself is to be believed (HAHAHAHA, ahem, excuse me) he will continue to carry out his preemptive strike policies wherever he deems necessary. Syria? Iran? Who knows. When you're talking about removing a threat before it exists, well, shoot, anything can happen, right?

Also, there that little Israel/Palestine thingy that current US policy is to ignore completely. And oil prices in the US are expected to double. Iraq will probably end up with another authoritarian regime, albeit a US-friendly one, in place just to stabilize the country, thus erasing every last trace of a puported reason for killing thousands of Iraqis and hundreds of Americans. And....

Should I stop? Because I could go on and on. By the way, I don't think it's going to be One Nation Under Buy Stuff, which might (??) in fact be preferable to One Nation Under Religious Fanaticism.
 
 
Baz Auckland
03:15 / 04.09.04
Another reason to vote for the Democrats:

"My friends, there is no Palestinian-Israeli conflict. There is only the global war on terrorism,” House Majority Leader Tom DeLay told the crowd at the Plaza Hotel Monday.
 
 
flufeemunk effluvia
03:18 / 04.09.04
Baz, that is just absolutely frightening.
 
 
Pingle!Pop
17:34 / 04.09.04
... As are some of the poll figures in that Time article up there, which give just a small indication of the unbelievable scale of the disinformation campaign from the Republicans/US Media:

The economy: 47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.

Some of the figures, if one tries to think with the mind of a right-wing lunatic, make some sense: sure, believe that the world is safer due to Bush's war on terror (!). Trust him to handle the situation in Iraq, whatever. But... is there actually any conceivable way in which the figures and so forth can be twisted to come up with the conclusion, "Bush is good for the economy"?
 
 
Mazarine
23:00 / 04.09.04
They polled Halliburton employees. The ones that trust Kerry probably just got their pensions revoked or something.
 
 
Mazarine
23:10 / 04.09.04
Also, on a slightly less snarky note, a lot of Bush's supporters (in fact, practically all of them) seem to be buying heavily into the idea that criticizing him in any way is a crime and a completely amoral. So no matter what the question is, they answer that Bush will do a better job.

The thing that depresses me most about my personal reaction to the campaigns is that I feel like I'm losing all faith in the idea that people can be reasoned with. I find myself becoming more and more closed minded and impatient with arguments other than my own, because why the hell should I listen when the other side's followers believe the shit the current administration puts out, and ignores the seriously fucked up things the president, vice president et al have done? Does anyone else find themselves being infected with stubbornness? Do you care? I'm not sure I do any more.
 
  

Page: 1(2)34567... 10

 
  
Add Your Reply