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Is Bush going to Win?

 
  

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sleazenation
21:41 / 12.09.04
I think its interesting to scrutinize the extent that more right-wing media outlets such as the Murdoch media give more prominance to pro-bush opinion polls than they do to other polls.

This close to the election, particularly one we all know is going to be so close, I have very little faith in the polls to be meaningfully accurate. Ignore the polls, ignore what you are told other people are going to do and make sure YOU go out and vote.
 
 
Pingle!Pop
12:20 / 13.09.04
I think its interesting to scrutinize the extent that more right-wing media outlets such as the Murdoch media give more prominance to pro-bush opinion polls than they do to other polls.

I was just wondering the other day what kind of effect this actually has. If you want to tip the scales in favour of one side by selectively publishing opinion polls, is it more effective to:

a) Publish polls which indicate the side one supports is winning, thus rallying the troops and increasing morale amongst the righteous,
b) Publish polls suggesting the evil baby-eating daemons on the other side are going to win, so you'd better get out there and make sure they don't, or...
c) Neither actually makes any difference, only the wording of the article which accompanies the poll?
 
 
Baz Auckland
04:07 / 14.09.04
It was interesting in the recent Canadian Federal Election that all the polls pointed to a Conservative majority, while the Liberals maintained a minority in the end. It may have been the threat of a Conservative win that spurred many to vote Liberal, but there were a few articles written afterwards questioning the value of polls, with quotes from many people who happily admitted to lying to them when they would call, just to mess with the poll numbers...
 
 
sleazenation
07:00 / 14.09.04
Traditionally, right-wing parties tend to draw an older demographic that place more importance on voting. To put it another way, the Repulican have fewer problems mobilising their supporters to vote than the democrats...
 
 
gridley
14:55 / 15.09.04
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 238 Bush 296

Survey USA's poll shows Bush taking Florida by a 6% lead.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
15:14 / 15.09.04
By the By can a mod change the title of this thread to something like

Is Bush going to Win?

At the moment it just feels like negative reinforcement...


...

You guys crack me up.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
15:25 / 15.09.04
"My friends, there is no Palestinian-Israeli conflict. There is only the global war on terrorism,ā€ House Majority Leader Tom DeLay told the crowd at the Plaza Hotel Monday.


Baz, that is just absolutely frightening.

Why? Do you seriously think he's trying to convince people that there is no conflict between Israelis and Palestinians? He's just putting the conflict into a shape the country can wrap their heads around. He, like the current administration, are trying to convince people that their primary concern is to stop terrorist attacks that take innocent lives. That's sort of a big thing for them, remember?
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
15:59 / 15.09.04
Hmmm... but what does he mean? Does he mean that Palestinian suicide bombers are terrorists, and as such one must make war until the Palestinians are no longer able to contest their borders or their treatment, or that the war on terror needs the Arab-Israeli issue sorted out, in order to remove on of the grievances that turn young Muslims into terrorists, which means in turn that a settlement agreeable to the Arab world needs to be sorted out?

This is what confuses me about this situation. If the priority was to minimise the danger of future terrorist attacks by Muslims on the USA, then a sensible response would be to use the leverage of being Israel's most powerful supporter to force a resolution. However, this is not being done, which suggests that the primary motivation of the Executive is not to protect (even) American lives.

Quelle surprise.

I'm profoundly ambivalent about the title change, btw - Johnny used the title to set out what he wanted to talk about, it was clear and it contained useful search terms. I see no good reason why it should have been changed, and would have disagreed with the motion if I had been on watch when it was proposed.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
17:38 / 15.09.04
I don't really care what the name of the thread is. But "negative reinforcement"? C'mon. Seriously.


Haus: I would guess he means that from his point of view, or rather the adimistration's view, it isn't an issue of Who v.s. Who (which has almost every sensitive issue you can think of wrapped inside it, with the possible exception of gay marriage) but rather an issue of "don't kill innocent folk to get your message across, that's like those jerks Al-Queda". I didn't see any hint of what their plan is to help put a stop to this, but that's probably just because they haven't really thought of it yet or don't plan to in any case.

But really, I'm not up to date on this. I'm not even sure who else is attempting to help in Israel other than the U.S., or what their plans are.

This "War On Terror" business is global now, so naturally Bush is, well, trying to save the world, I guess. From terror. ((cue for folks to grunt or smirk in obvious disbelief)) The goal (supposedly) isn't to make just America safe, but "to put an end to terror around the world", which I think suicide bombers and car bombs fit into. I mean, for whatever reason they are detonated, they kill scores of bystanders.
 
 
Baz Auckland
20:51 / 15.09.04
Yes, but I doubt Delay was also thinking that Israel needs to stop terrorizing the Palestinian civilian population by blowing up apartment blocks, bulldozing houses, building walls through their farmland, etc. etc....
 
 
sleazenation
20:53 / 15.09.04
Johnny O'Clock -

Iā€™m not sure what you are attempting to argue in your post on the first page ā€“ Are you saying that if Bush is elected in what is generally agreed as a full, free and fair election (something that is getting increasingly difficult to verify with the advent of computerized voting machines and vote counting amongst other things) Everyone should shut up and put up for four years?
 
 
Regrettable Juvenilia
07:43 / 16.09.04
I'm not even sure who else is attempting to help in Israel other than the U.S.

Hahahahahahaha "other than".

Since a good deal of the USA's involvement in the Israel/Palestine conflict could be summed up reasonably accurately as "funding, arming and internationally protecting the interests of the state responsible for the majority of deaths", maybe they should just stop trying to "help" matters?
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
07:45 / 16.09.04
Might be worth checking out who voted against the UN General Assembly's condemnation of the illegal actions taken by the USA against Nicaragua also...
 
 
Ganesh
14:16 / 16.09.04
For those interested, here's some info on US aid to Israel:

Total U.S. aid to Israel is approximately one-third of the American foreign-aid budget, even though Israel comprises just .001 percent of the world's population and already has one of the world's higher per capita incomes. Indeed, Israel's GNP is higher than the combined GNP of Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza.

Since 1949 the U.S. has given Israel a total of $83.205 billion. The interest costs borne by U.S. tax payers on behalf of Israel are $49.937 billion, thus making the total amount of aid given to Israel since 1949 $133.132 billion. This may mean that U.S. government has given more federal aid to the average Israeli citizen in a given year than it has given to the average American citizen.

Plus loads of other special privileges, waived loans and military loopholes - and I think this source is a couple of years out of date. The Israeli-Palestine conflict is the very definition of 'asymmetric'.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
14:23 / 16.09.04
I’m not sure what you are attempting to argue in your post on the first page – Are you saying that if Bush is elected in what is generally agreed as a full, free and fair election (something that is getting increasingly difficult to verify with the advent of computerized voting machines and vote counting amongst other things) Everyone should shut up and put up for four years?

Shut up? No. They can tell anyone and everyone they see what a terrible injustice it is. They can protest all they like, and they probably will.

Put up? Yes. They will do just that, because they won't have any other choice in the matter. They'll learn to deal with it. Say it with me, folks: Deal with it. That's my plan, anyway.

But hey, what are we all worried about? Voting won't win this election, right? A MEME will, remember? So let's get crackin' on it!
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
15:36 / 16.09.04
Actually, I think lots of people have talked about the important of voting and of getting other people to vote in the course of this thread.
 
 
Ganesh
16:14 / 16.09.04
Quite. It ain't an either/or situation: vote and wank.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
18:59 / 16.09.04
Probably best to ask someone else to hold the polling booth steady.
 
 
fluid_state
19:28 / 16.09.04
"Just hanging my chad, officer, nothing to see here..."

Well, I like the thread name change at least, if only so I can answer the question. Of course he's going to win. Every message in the North American mass media is gearing up for it. Sure, I know why he's a laconic twittering ape of a man no sane sentient would ever trust with janitorial duties, much less a presidency; Then I talk to my dad, or my brother, or my coworkers, and, well, I despair. Between the media coverage of him and the largely unnoticed grand larceny of Electronic Election Theft 2004 (new and improved! Silly human tabulature no longer required!), not to mention the abject apathy of America's Democratic voting bloc (compared to the Rabid Republican base)... it seems preordained. And when I look at it in that harsh, bitter light, it's scarier to wonder what a Kerry win would entail. If only because it would feel like "good" won out, like impossible odds were overcome to defeat an evil empire, and the rabid left wing would relax, because it could be worse.
 
 
Simplist
21:52 / 16.09.04
Put up? Yes. They will do just that, because they won't have any other choice in the matter. They'll learn to deal with it. Say it with me, folks: Deal with it. That's my plan, anyway.

Can't really disagree. Dissappointed as I am with the American electorate, I still am having difficulty extrapolating a plausible scenario in which the seemingly intrinsically moribund Kerry wins. He's finally started being verbally aggressive to some extent, but I think it may be (as the cliche goes) too little, too late. That good old electoral vote predictor currently has Bush over Kerry 311 to 223--his momentum is growing. Kerry's inability to really talk turkey combined with gargantuan Dem missteps like those apparently forged documents supplied to CBS (the ongoing exposure of which has served to derail the National Guard story almost entirely) have dug him a hole that will be difficult to climb out of. A Bill Clinton could still pull it out with a scintillating performance at the debates, but barring major personality changes I doubt we'll see anything like that from Kerry.
 
 
Simplist
21:53 / 16.09.04
Actually, I think lots of people have talked about the important of voting and of getting other people to vote in the course of this thread.

The importance of voting is actually a relative thing, due to the winner-take-all per state setup of the electoral college system. As a Californian I don't have the slightest chance of affecting the election with my vote; California is so safely Democratic that neither candidate is even bothering to campaign or run ads here. Had I been thinking ahead, I could've registered to vote in Florida (using the home address of family or friends as my own), where my vote would indeed be potentially of some importance. As it is I may well vote for one of the smaller parties I usually support (Natural Law or Libertarian generally, though in the recent gubernatorial race I wrote in Robert Anton Wilson of the Guns & Dope Party) rather than supporting Kerry, who will win California's 55 electoral votes in any remotely plausible case.
 
 
ibis the being
22:21 / 16.09.04
Simplest, I see what you're saying - shoot, I live in Massachusetts, my vote (for Kerry) really doesn't matter in the numbers sense - but I think by voting anyway (as I will), and telling people about how I'm voting and why, I can contribute to an overall momentum, not to mention my own tender optimism.

apathy of America's Democratic voting bloc (compared to the Rabid Republican base)...

I see the Democrats as not so much apathetic as just lacking the urgency we should have, and the fervor of the conservatives. A lot of Democrats and/or liberals, in my perusals of various news stories, seem to be (per usual) equivocating and weighing the issues and so on, and that's admirable in most other scenarios EXCEPT FOR THIS ELECTION. The number of times I've heard people say "I really don't like Bush, but I don't know, Kerry hasn't really shown me why I should vote for him...." It's like saying, "Well, I don't want to eat arsenic, but this pizza here, how healthy is it really?" Lord have mercy.
 
 
Professor Silly
22:50 / 16.09.04
Any predictions on what percent of registered voters will actually show up and vote?

I can't imagine it will be less than 50%....
 
 
Hieronymus
23:58 / 19.09.04
I think a great deal of this election will be decided by new, young voters. While the turnout where I work hasn't been as great as I hoped it would be (our NewVotersProject.com rep came by and took 22 registration forms from our drop-box. For one month's worth of collection that's not bad. Not a victory or even a pebble against Bush. But still, it's the best we could muster), I'm told by NVP that they've registered 40,000 of their 50,000 goal of new voters as of last week.

How many of those 40,000 will actually get off their asses and go to their polling places is anyone's guess. But I keep hearing that people who haven't voted before are the untrackable x factor this year, that they won't show up in those poll stats we keep running to read every day.

Or maybe I'm just fooling myself into clinging to one last chance of voting Dubya out. At this point, in face of Bush's crescendo of support less than 40 days to Nov. 2, hope is pretty much all I've got left to hold onto.
 
 
alas
12:39 / 21.09.04
Michael Moore tells us to put away our hankies because he's not convinced by the polls or much of anything the media tell us (shock!). He also thinks we've just got to deal with the fact that people like Kerry are the people who run so just get over that he's not our ideal knight in shining progressivity. Here's just a snippet, I promise, since it relates to the whole young voters thing:

... My friends, it is time for a reality check.

1. The polls are wrong. They are all over the map like diarrhea. On Friday, one poll had Bush 13 points ahead -- and another poll had them both tied. There are three reasons why the polls are b.s.: One, they are polling "likely voters." "Likely" means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week. You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.

2. Kerry has brought in the Clinton A-team. Instead of shunning Clinton (as Gore did), Kerry has decided to not make that mistake.
....


It's worth reading the whole thing, and the links he links to, which I didn't copy into this posting. I'm not despairing yet--the election board is getting inundated in my county with new voters, and there are lots of Kerry signs and stickers out there. And when's the last time half a million people showed up for a protest of the RNC? I think Kerry has a good chance of winning, if the newly registered vote.

Hey--even more important than just voting? If you have a car, and can get the day off work, volunteer to take people to the polls. Contact your local democratic party--they'll get you in touch with people who need rides--and they will love you for it. Especially you swing state people!

And remember, even if your state isn't swingy, it would be very helpful to get more progressives (or at least slightly less conservatives) in down-ticket no matter where you live--a lot of environmental action--regulations about development, etc.--happen at the local level. Abortion is increasingly a state by state thing. Marriage laws, etc... It's still worth acting no matter what happens at the top of the ticket, I think.
 
 
Sir Real
15:06 / 21.09.04
All over the map like diarrhea? I'll certainly be going on no road trips with that guy.
 
 
Simplist
16:30 / 21.09.04
While I'm not quite as optomistic as Moore about the polls (if it was really an even race, surely some of them would show Kerry at least a point or two ahead, instead of every single poll showing Bush ahead), I did see some vaguely encouraging data when I looked at the complete details of the latest Zogby poll (ie. including undecideds) at PollingReport.com.

Note that in both the two-way matchup and the Bush/Kerry/Nader/Badnarik/etc. matchup, the "unsure" percentage is more than twice the difference between the Bush and Kerry percentages. Since undecideds traditionally tend to break for the challenger, this oddly unreported detail could be good news.
 
 
Simplist
19:23 / 21.09.04
Here's one reason Bush is doing better than Kerry, despite all the obvious reasons he shouldn't be:

Yesterday Kerry said about the war that "the president misled, miscalculated and mismanaged every aspect of this undertaking and he has made the achievement of our objective. . . far harder to achieve than it ever should have been."

To which Bush replied, "He's saying he prefers the stability of a dictatorship to the hope and security of democracy."

Bush, like Clinton before him, knows how to speak simply and understandably. Now obviously his statement bears very little resemblance to anything Kerry actually said, but what Kerry did say takes a moment's thought to interpret. Bush's counterstatement, OTOH, is simple and to the point.

Also, it's blunt and ballsy. Kerry is far too concerned with decorum and appropriateness to ever say, for instance, "the President LIED to gain public support for the war." Instead he equivocates and talks around the point and as a result comes across as effete and ineffectual.

OTOH, Bill Clinton had no problem saying to George H.W. Bush's face, on live television during the debates, "You just can't promise something like that [no new taxes] just to get elected if you know there's a good chance that circumstances may overtake you." Kerry really, really needs to take some lessons from the Bill.
 
 
Perfect Tommy
20:47 / 21.09.04
A Bill Clinton could still pull it out with a scintillating performance at the debates, but barring major personality changes I doubt we'll see anything like that from Kerry.

You might be surprised. While Bush can stay on-message and resolute with more preparation, and embarrasses himself speaking off the cuff, Kerry is the opposite and seems to do speak better the less preparation he has. I heard a debate from several years ago on the radio, and he had an amazing riposte on the death penalty that won the audience over.
 
 
diz
12:26 / 22.09.04
sorry, i didn't want to post the whole article, but it's registration-required, and the registration costs money, apparently:

GBN Global Perspectives
Gwynne Dyer
_______________________

The Poisoned Chalice

As the opinion polls move steadily in favour of President George W. Bush and the likelihood of a John Kerry presidency recedes, Democrats in the United States can take solace in two facts. If their man is not in the White House for the next four years, then they will not end up carrying the blame for the almost inevitable US defeat in Iraq -- and they will not have to preside over the biggest financial crisis to hit the United States since the Great Depression.

"The US dollar is going the way that [the British pound] went as it lost its place as the world's reserve currency," said Jim Rogers, the Wall Street wizard who in 1973 co-founded the Quantum Fund, one of the first and most successful hedge funds, in a recent interview. "I suspect there will be exchange controls in the US in the foreseeable future....Whoever is elected president is going to have serious problems in 2005-06. We Americans are going to suffer." Why?

If Mr Kerry won, this would be the third time in a row that an
incoming Democratic president inherited a gigantic budget deficit from his Republican predecessor. Jimmy Carter took over a budget deficit of almost four percent of Gross Domestic Product in 1976 and halved it in four years. Bill Clinton was handed a budget deficit amounting to six percent of GDP in 1992 and turned it into a 1.5 percent surplus in eight years. Mr Kerry would inherit a five percent deficit from Mr Bush, about par for the course -- but for the first time he would also be burdened with a huge current
account (trade) deficit.

When Jimmy Carter was president, US trade with the rest of the
world was more or less in balance, which made it relatively easy for him to address the budget deficit. America's trade balance went deep into the red during the Reagan years, but by the time Bill Clinton came into office it had recovered dramatically and so he, too, could fix the budget deficit without having to worry about a big trade deficit. But in the last Clinton years the current account plunged into deep deficit, and it's now even worse.

It's the combination of the two deficits that is potentially
lethal. The United States got away with running a big trade deficit for most of the past twenty years because foreigners, mostly in Asia and Europe, kept on investing in the US, and that huge inflow of foreign capital largely covered the deficit. They invested in the US not because it was the world's fastest-growing economy (it wasn't), but mainly because the US dollar was seen as the safest currency, the world's "reserve currency" in which other countries settle their debts even with each other.

That was then; this is now. The inflow of foreign capital is
dwindling, the current account deficit is up to half a trillion dollars a
year -- and the budget deficit, thanks to the Bush tax cuts and the Iraq war, is also up to half a trillion dollars a year. Neither Mr Bush nor Mr Kerry even discusses the issue, and the value of the US dollar has been drifting steadily down for a year and a half now.

Foreigners have seen the value of their US investments effectively cut by 20 percent because of that fall in the dollar, and they are getting nervous. Foreigner investors hold about $8 trillion in US securities, and everybody realises that a concerted move to bail out of them would trigger a collapse of the dollar and the destruction of their investments. On the other hand, everybody also knows that the first investors to get out will save most of their money, and the laggards will lose most of theirs. It is
a highly unstable situation.

A far-sighted Democratic strategist might therefore conclude that this is the wrong year to win the presidency. Democrats don't want the blame for an impending economic crisis that is mostly due to the Bush tax cuts -- and since their chosen candidate has no strategy for pulling out of Iraq, why not let the Republicans collect the blame for that debacle, too?

There is going to be a smash; it's too late to avoid it; let the
other lot stay in the driver's seat for now. We'll win next time, and stay in power for a generation. But there is no sign that anybody in the Democratic Party is making such a calculation: they are genuinely committed to fighting Bush.

At the least, that will lend authenticity to their defeat, and win
them credit for next time. And if John Kerry should win, thanks to some wild card we have not yet seen, it may be rough on the Democratic party but it wouldn't necessarily be bad for the United States or the world.

Though Mr Kerry now vows to "stay the course" in Iraq, he is
likelier than the crew around Mr Bush to accept reality and pull American troops out before too much damage is done. And if economic disaster strikes the United States in the next four years, as it well may, he is less likely than Mr Bush to devote all his energy to shifting the blame for it onto foreigners.


discuss.
 
 
_Boboss
13:38 / 22.09.04
well, this is similar to what i've been thinking for months. if bush keeps going a bit longer there's a good chance that america will permanently cripple itself in a way which at least precludes the current interventionist foreign policy from being put into practice ever again. which would be an improvement on things as they are now.

plus if kerry wins hilary's got no chance, ever. better off letting bush utterly besmirch the name of the gop by plunging the country into a huge thirties-style depression and losing vietnam the reprise, then having hil swoop in in '08 and remain virtually unopposed til '16.
 
 
ibis the being
13:55 / 22.09.04
In reply to dizfactor's post -

I understand the points being made, but for me this not about having "my" party win or look better or have power. It's about being terribly nervous about what "four more years" could bring. Even brushing aside the hugely important matter of the economy for the moment, four more Bush years would be bad for the environment. And women's reproductive health. And minority rights. Children's education. Lots of voiceless civilians in other countries who might have to die for no good reason. I may be short-sighted, I've certainly been told that before, but those aren't things I'm willing to sacrifice in order to see the Democratic party come out ahead in the long run.

As I see things, as long as Bush is at the helm instilling fear into the American people, we're going to continue on this frighteningly extreme conservative downswing. I've already heard (on NPR) of a growing problem women on regular old birth control pills are finding in the US - doctors and pharmacists who refuse to give/fill their prescriptions on moral grounds, because they view them as a form of abortion (and if you're thinking I'm mixing OCPs with the morning-after pill, I am not). This is Bush America. A huge step backwards in time.
 
 
Simplist
15:40 / 22.09.04
Word. Over the weekend I was speaking with an English acquaintance who's lived here in California for 27 years, founded several still-successful businesses, built an enormous social network, etc. He's now seriously thinking of moving back to England due to the current scary trajectory of American political development, which he only sees getting worse, the inexplicably impending reelection of GWB being a major piece of that impression. "Things are getting very '1984' in America right now," he said. To my shame I couldn't really disagree.
 
 
diz
16:23 / 22.09.04
I understand the points being made, but for me this not about having "my" party win or look better or have power. It's about being terribly nervous about what "four more years" could bring. Even brushing aside the hugely important matter of the economy for the moment, four more Bush years would be bad for the environment. And women's reproductive health. And minority rights. Children's education. Lots of voiceless civilians in other countries who might have to die for no good reason. I may be short-sighted, I've certainly been told that before, but those aren't things I'm willing to sacrifice in order to see the Democratic party come out ahead in the long run.

perhaps i'm overly cynical, but the next four years are already fucked, either way. minorities are fucked, women are fucked, the environment is fucked, poor anonymous brown people in countries most Americans have never even heard of are fucked. the country belongs to the conservatives, and it has for basically my entire lifetime. Clinton was able to be massively successful by being marginally less evil than the Republicans, and temporarily holding the gates against the onsalught of the Gingrich revolution, and that's the best anyone's going to be able to do until Reaganism visibly fails in the minds of Middle America.

let me explain. the Seventies were a rough period for Middle America, with what seemed like defeat after defeat after defeat. however, each of those defeats contained vital lessons we're re-learning again now, under Bush.

Vietnam: our military power has limits, we are as capable of wartime atrocities as any other country, and imperialism is a bad idea
Watergate: our hallowed democratic institutions are riddled with corruption
the economic downturn: our economic growth is slowing, our period of total economic domination of the globe is coming to an end, and we need to re-examine our basic assumptions on that front
the oil crisis: we're too dependent on foreign oil, our tendency to indulge in conspicuous consumption is potentially very dangerous, and we have to start looking at alternative sources of energy
the hostage crisis: our policy of propping up dictators in the service of imperial ambition is going to blow up in our faces
environmental crises (Love Canal, Three Mile Island, etc): we're totally fucking the environment

Middle America remembers this as a depressing time, and understandably so. however, what needed to happen was for America to acknowledge all of these problems, and start working on actually solving them. that process was sure to be uncomfortable and painful, but it was then and remains now ultimately necessary for long-term peace and prosperity.

this was the time for the Left to step up, but we dropped the ball. Reagan and Bush got their first, and, basically, gave Middle America a series of comforting lies which have enabled them to stick their heads up their asses and ignore all of these problems for decades.

Vietnam: our only problem in Vietnam is that we were too soft on Evil, and we let the hippie liberal peaceniks tie our hands and cut our budgets. the answer: a more belligerent foreign policy, massive military spending, and demonization of the counterculture and anyone opposed to any number of covert government wrongdoings, plus a few showpiece war victories (Grenada, Panama, Desert Storm)
Watergate: our hallowed democratic institutions are riddled with corruption because of liberals who are using it to meddle in your lives with socialistic regulations. the answer: get rid of virtually all government social services, specifically the New Deal and Great Society programs. assaults on the separation of church and state.
the economic downturn: our economy is falling behind because of government regulation, government social spending, and labor unions. the answer: a full-scale campaign to gut all three
the oil crisis: because we are so dependent on foreign oil, anything we need to do in the Middle East to secure our access to cheap oil is justified as a matter of national security. the answer: very aggressive Middle East policy
the hostage crisis: America looks weak because we let these brown guys with funny names walk all over us. the answer: fuck the Ayatollah, fuck Saddam, fuck (insert name of scapegoat du jour here)
environmental crises (Love Canal, Three Mile Island, etc): this is just a myth peddled by a bunch of tree-hugging pussies who care more about spotted owls than they do about people, and want to stop you from enjoying such all-American traditions as the barbecue and the big family car, and just want to tie down industry with useless red tape and bankrupt us all. the answer: deregulation, total apathy, and vilification of environmental activists.

Reagan succeeded by telling people things they wanted to hear instead of what they needed to hear, and we're reaping the results of that now. Bush followed that tradition, basically. Clinton could only win in Reagan's country by Reaganizing the Democrats, and all he was really able to accomplish was watering down Reaganism for an eight year interregnum until Bush II took up the Gipper's mantle with a vengeance.

because of this, i can definitely see the merits of those who argue that the shit is going to come down, and come down hard, regardless of who gets elected. what's most important, then, is that no one in their right minds can blame anything but Reaganism for that fall. not just the Republicans as a party, but the ideology itself has to be totally discredited so that the voters start doing a serious re-think and start looking around for alternatives. Reagan came to power, essentially, by blaming all of America's problems on the liberals, and his intellectual heirs have maintained power by either obscuring their failures, spinning them into perceived successes, or blaming them on the liberals. they've succeeded to such a degree that the Democrats have been forced to adopt their basic principles and assumptions to become electable. it may very well be that the only way to break the Reaganite stranglehold on American politics is to give its most fervent apostles enough rope to hang themselves with, and hope that things blow up in such a way that it's too big to hide, too big to spin, and no one else to blame. saving some semblance of the Democratic Party now may mean having a credible opposition to step in when it bottoms out in this next term. if Bush loses now, and it all gets fucked on Kerry's watch, the Bushes will be able to come in and claim "see, we told you he'd fuck it up!" then they'd come back in '08 and prolong the whole thing.

the only counter-argument to that that i can see is that the deceptions and multi-layered catastrophic failures relating to the Iraq war, if nothing else, should have been too big to hide and too big to spin, but they're hiding and spinning the shit out of it and it's working well enough to keep them electable. i think that it may be naive to assume that something even bigger would be any more effective.

As I see things, as long as Bush is at the helm instilling fear into the American people, we're going to continue on this frighteningly extreme conservative downswing.

we've already been on this hugely conservative downswing for 24 to 36 years, depending on whether you date it from Nixon or Reagan. the Bush regime is only a slight acceleration of our slow, steady drift to the far right over the course of decades.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
16:48 / 22.09.04
Actually, I think lots of people have talked about the important of voting and of getting other people to vote in the course of this thread.

You are correct, King Friday. I was aiming that comment at another thread in the Conversation, specifically at someone who was complaining about "all the 'resistance is futile' threads".

I've been reading too much Moorcock. I almost want Bush to win. The global outcry and ensuing chaos sounds kinda fun (on paper, anyway. Things like protesting and riots always look more fun in a book or on television).
 
  

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