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Guys, relax. Your odds of catching a MAFIA at random will improve after I and the next MAFIA victim are out of your pool of possibles. This round they are either 3/11 or 2/11, which is hardly inspiring. Next round they'll be 1/3 or 2/9. Add to this your own formidable powers of reason and the various effects of your powers, which I'm too dim to calculate. For instance, the Detective will have a worst-case scenario chance of 2/7, and the Masons have a lovely 1/3. But I can't say how that effects the group odds. (Don't worry, I'm not a Detective or Mason). See how your odds get better the more you "lose"? What would be really sweet is if the MAFIA killed the Vampire last night and get the Changeling tonight. Your odds would start at 4/9!
It turns out that the odds on T.O.D.D. (henceforth, the T/odds) are defeating me, so I'll just publish my findings and maybe you guys can make sense of them. As far as I can see, there are 3 reasons we can base on odds for T.O.D.D. to announce that he's been Changed.
1) He's now Bulletproof (1/9 that the MAFIA randomly hit the Bulletproof last night). He'd come out and say it, though, wouldn't he? Maybe he doesn't want to be called a liar.
2) He's now a Vampire. This seems like the best case scenario in terms of your odds tomorrow; randomly, this is also a 1/9 chance, but if it happened I don't think it was random. Here, he wants the Detective to establish his innocence before you or they "kill" him, as he won't read MAFIA yet.
3) He's lying, which is the really confusing part. A subset of this is that he was ALWAYS the vampire. 3/11? 1/15? Where do you start? There's another possibility here, but I'm not going to give it away. Anyway, as far as I know, T.O.D.D. units are only programmed to lie about your figure. Otherwise they're scrupulously honest.
4) I also forget exactly how to calculate the odds that the Doctor and MAFIA randomly picked the same target last night and he's something else. Is it 1/9 * 1/12? That's 7/36. My calculator keeps giving me really tiny numbers, but I think I'm doing it wrong. Anyway, if that happened and wasn't random, I think I know what he is now.
"Phew! My brain hurts. A glass of milk, please, rat, you MAFIA bounder." Qal Yn pauses. "I can't believe I missed the chance to say I smell a rat." |
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