BARBELITH underground
 

Subcultural engagement for the 21st Century...
Barbelith is a new kind of community (find out more)...
You can login or register.


The Race for the White House 2008

 
  

Page: 1(2)34567... 8

 
 
grant
16:11 / 30.01.08
Very proud of my home state's civic spirit. One precinct in Broward County - D01 - had a whopping 109% voter turnout.
 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
20:17 / 02.02.08
Ann (ptui!) Coulter seems to be in favour of Hilary Clinton, albeit at the moment only if it's a choice between her and McCain. Rush Limbaugh seems to be slowly edging round to much the same conclusion. I know Coulter doesn't work for Fox, but does anyone think it possible that after best part of a decade hating her that Fox could come to at least tolerate a Clinton candidacy?
 
 
Tsuga
21:05 / 02.02.08
No, I don't think so, but then again, I had not heard that Limbaugh was thinking of pulling for Clinton. Are you sure about that? As far as Coulter, I think that she was just succumbing to her usual hyperbolic blowhardery. Bizzaro world it am not be (or something).
This is not to say that conservative freaks have any love lost for McCain.
 
 
*
07:13 / 03.02.08
I suspect that the only way Coulter would endorse Hillary is to ensure that Democrats abandon her for the (seemingly) easier to beat Obama.
 
 
Pingle!Pop
08:12 / 03.02.08
That doesn't sound right... although I'm sure if she endorsed it'd be for tactical purposes, the last I saw the general election opinion polls had Obama walking over any potential rival, whilst Clinton was actually slightly down on McCain.
 
 
Mug Chum
11:04 / 03.02.08
Wasn't Coulter who said women shouldn't have never been allowed to vote? I'd always thought 'TEH CLINTONS!' were forbidden profane ground for them even for tatical use.

Frank Luntz, partly responsible for all the republican 'doublespeak' throught the worst in Bush years (and also a smiling self-satisfied douche), says he couldn't possibly imagine how he could make the republicans win over Obama. And I'm not sure what to think of it, the guy is a proud bullshitter (at first, I thought "well he wants people to go for Obama. No, he bullshits people for a living, it's a trap. No, but he knows we know he's a little lying asshole and that we wouldn't take him at first glance... so... ahm...?").
 
 
*
22:07 / 05.02.08
Super Tuesday, everyone. Here in Berkeley I've been seeing a lot of support for Sn. Obama, which I attribute to him being considered the anti-war candidate. I know there are a handful of Ron Paul supporters around, but despite their deep wellspring of faith in the hidden multitudes that they swear will get their candidate into the White House, I don't think he'll take California. We've gotten calls for Sn. Clinton, but none for Sn. Obama, which my friend innocently suggested might be because he just doesn't believe in bothering people like that. If you voted, what was your polling experience like? If you can't vote... well, sit around with me and mock our pretense of democracy.
 
 
Tsuga
22:42 / 05.02.08
I'll be staying up later than usual to see some returns, though tomorrow things will be a bit more clear. It seems apparent at this point that it won't be decided on the Democratic side, but it's such a broad spectrum we may have a much better perspective on the voting trends. Exciting, really.
 
 
*
01:07 / 06.02.08
My housemate advanced a theory of collusion between McCain and Huckabee to take states away from Romney.
 
 
Pingle!Pop
01:10 / 06.02.08
I think that one's a *theorem*: apparently McCain asked his supporters in WV to vote for Huckabee in the second round of caucus voting for precisely that reason.
 
 
*
01:40 / 06.02.08
I realize it's good strategy, but isn't it kind of... cheaty?
 
 
electric monk
02:41 / 06.02.08
I don't know if it's cheating, but it certainly doesn't sound like something the admiral of the Straight Talk Express ought to be doing.

I'm in Florida, so voting was...well, we're just never really sure, y'know? We're still voting on the Diebold machines, I think. It looked like a Diebold.
 
 
*
04:15 / 06.02.08
So it looks like Clinton is taking it for the dems, and it's a bit of a surprise to me the margin she's leading by. And McCain for the Reps. And if it's Clinton against McCain, I think it's suddenly become a much closer race in November than I thought.
 
 
wicker woman
09:14 / 06.02.08
So it looks like Clinton is taking it for the dems, and it's a bit of a surprise to me the margin she's leading by. And McCain for the Reps. And if it's Clinton against McCain, I think it's suddenly become a much closer race in November than I thought.

I wouldn't say that so quickly. If my addition isn't off from the totals given at NPR so far, the delegate count is 562 for Obama, and 582 for Clinton. 20 delegates is nothing, and as Obama's people have been spinning for much of the night, they'd be happy even if the gap was 100.
 
 
*
14:24 / 06.02.08
Yeah, delegate math is something I'm rather weak in. But Clinton also has tons of superdelegates backing her, and I'm less sure about their impact on the overall election. I'm also increasingly convinced that if she is the nominee, she will have a struggle against McCain.
 
 
*
17:50 / 06.02.08
Speaking of delegate math, this spreadsheet is really handy. I wonder how accurate it is.
 
 
grant
04:05 / 08.02.08
Who thinks Huckabee will sign on with McCain as VP to create a conservative juggernaut, hawks plus fundies?
 
 
sleazenation
09:15 / 08.02.08
I thought that was the deal Romney was angling for, maybe even the deal he got, behind closed doors.
 
 
Closed for Business Time
09:32 / 08.02.08
No, that's one scary proposition. What're the odds of a Clinton/Obama tag-team?
 
 
grant
13:46 / 08.02.08
sleazenation: Well, Romney's not going to carry the fundamentalists, who distrust Mormons and who vote in a bloc. He's just another big business guy - lots of money. That's not to say that's not what happened, just that it doesn't make me that uneasy. Huckabee got all the South, pretty much. I actually wouldn't be surprised if some Huckabee-loyal churchgoers would rather vote for Obama than McCain, simply because he's got a from-the-pulpit style.

Nolte: Given that Edwards has yet to endorse, I'm thinking he's angling for a VP slot with one of the two up front. Isn't that what he did last time? He's got the same vibe as Obama (Yes, We Can!), but this makes me think he'd be more useful to Clinton. Hope + Gravitas.
 
 
PatrickMM
05:34 / 09.02.08
Well, Romney's out, leaving us with McCain. I know a lot of people will say this is a good thing, but McCain is one of the most devious, morally bankrupt politicians out there, a guy who was willing to compromise all the values that led him through the 2000 election and fully endorse the Bush agenda here in 2008. You can say it's just to appeal to conservatives and get elected, but anyone who says we should stay in Iraq for 10,000 years and keep the Bush tax cuts has no business being considered for any office, let alone the presidency. He took it when Bush completely misrepresented him in 2000, the first of a series of reality distortions that has led us to the awful place our country's at now.

That said, it absolutely baffles me why people like Ann Coulter would support Hillary over McCain. What possible justification could there be for that considering how much they all seemed to hate her? What the hell is going on?

as usual, republicans are against sex, and democrats are against religion.

And, this comment is just baffling to me. Democrats may not openly be talking about Jesus every chance they get, but that in no way makes them anti religion. That's just buying into the Republican propaganda that they're the ones who hold "values," when in reality those values are kill innocent people and tax the poor to pay for the rich.
 
 
eye landed
08:57 / 09.02.08
as usual, republicans are against sex, and democrats are against religion.

And, this comment is just baffling to me.


ya, that was a dumb thing to say; not sure what i was going for. i must have been focusing on some kind of media blip. neither issue has been big this year, although i can see a huge abortion debate rearing its fearsome head before the whole thing is over.

in fact, i see both sex and religion as largely republican debates. the democrats only mention them to pander to 'value voters'. its the repubs who see the president as a role model, and the dems see hir more as an employer.

heres some new data for the thread:

clinton Well, I hear the voices from the other side of the aisle. I hear voices on TV and radio. And they are living in some other universe, talking about deporting people, rounding them up.

I don't agree with that, and I don't think it's practical. And therefore, what we've got to do is to say, come out of the shadows. We will register everyone. We will check, because if you have committed a crime in this country or the country you came from, then you will not be able to stay, you will have to be deported.

But for the vast majority of people who are here, we will give you a path to legalization if you meet the following condition: pay a fine because you entered illegally, be willing to pay back taxes over time, try to learn English -- and we have to help you do that, because we've cut back on so many of those services -- and then you wait in line.


either the scariest of the stupidest idea ive heard since the gaza borders were blocked. this would create a new supply of minimum-wage employees, while eliminating the supply of underpaid workers. more underpaid workers have to come from somewhere: maybe all the fresh 'americans' who cant find a new job valued at minimum wage. and doesnt a high unemployment rate lead to tax deficit? maybe as compensation there will be 'back taxes' coming in from all the newly legal prosperous americans.

and deporting all the mexican criminals and drug dealers is going to provide reserves to fight the army and police quelling drug trafficking in mexico.

What're the odds of a Clinton/Obama tag-team?

i think that idea is a clinton trick. obama would be wasted as VP, much like gore was. but if obama supporters think they can get obama AND the more 'realistic' candidate, they might go for the tag-team, thus sinking obama.

obamas super (duper) tuesday speech starts off slow, but morphs into a plea for action that really seems to go beyond voting: politics as how you act in your life, rather than politics as which party you sign for.

but a lot of his 'inspiration' seems to come from mocking washington. whats he gonna do when hes in it? his dramatic idea for change hasnt really developed to the steel-trap level. but...maybe it doesnt matter if he gets to washington, since hes telling YOU, the listener, to ACT, not to VOTE and forget.

obama change will not come if we wait for some other person, or some other time. we are the ones weve been waiting for. we are the change that we seek.

sounds hokey, but he sold it like a frenchman. i cant vote, but he inspired me to look to my own politics and wonder why im watching american bullshitters instead of organizing my own change in my own community.

obama seems uncomfortable when he is being applauded; he seems annoyed as he says 'thank you thank you thank you', as if hes impatient to get to the part where he talks. obama also seems to have a lot of different voices. i wonder if hes trained in this. i hear bill clinton and reagan, as well as orson welles or whomever hes usually channeling.
 
 
wicker woman
05:23 / 11.02.08
Relatively fresh news, only one day old at most...

Barak Obama has won, rather handily, the three primaries that took place on Saturday (Washington, Louisiana, and Nebraska), and the one on Sunday (Maine). Clinton has reportedly fired her campaign advisor. Texas and Ohio are coming up on the 4th of March, and are said to favor Clinton, but if Obama can pull an upset in either of those states, it may start to look really bad for her.
 
 
bjacques
13:59 / 20.02.08
Obama took Verginia, Maryland and Washington DC on the 12th, and Hawaii and Wisconsin last night. Wisconsin, being a fairly populous state, was supposed to be Hillary's "firewall" against the Obama campaign, but she got 0wn3d.

Democrats are consistently turning out in larger numbers than the Republicans are, and most of the increased number are Obama voters. In Wisconsin, 40% of eligible voters turned out for the primaries. That's a lot for a primary. 73% of *those* were Democrats. By winning 58% of the Democratic vote, Obama voters alone outnumbered Republican voters. I think this has happened in a few other states too.

Outlook for Texas is at least a tie for Obama if not an outright WIN, because the heavily-Latino districts she hopes to deliver the votes have the fewest delegates, or something like that. Anyway, her people are starting to spin it away. Ohio, also a large state, could be a split but Obama will probably get Vermont and Rhode Island.

And now here's a photo of McCain.
 
 
FinderWolf
21:41 / 24.02.08
Nader is running again...? Ugh. Way to split the vote, again -- I think it won't have the effect it had in the 2004 election, though - people learned their lesson.
 
 
*
04:46 / 25.02.08
Also we'll probably have a candidate we can agree to tolerate, if not enthusiastically cheer on. A vote for Nader now looks less like a radical protest.
 
 
Pingle!Pop
08:05 / 25.02.08
Really? While I can't blame people for flocking to Obama as an alternative to yet more of the far-right policies the Republicans are peddling, I'm not seeing how he's so much less odious than Gore (even the 2000 Gore, pre-shuffling a little to the left) that he should be able to command such agreement on the (very broadly defined) left. You seem to be saying that anyone who couldn't "tolerate" him would be unreasonable, whereas I can think of plenty of reasons why I could never bring myself to vote for him if I were in the US.
 
 
bjacques
15:56 / 25.02.08
True, Obama's middle-of-the-road, though slightly to the left of Hillary. But now he's a surfer atop a tsunami of Democratic voter discontent and it's big enough to sweep away not only a lot of Republican opponents from Senators to school board members but also some of the Democratic deadwood who cavied into Bush's demands for 7 years and have nothing to show for it.

So Obama will have a Democratic Congress and Senate that are more progressive than they've been in ages, and he'll have a revitalized party as a source of a new generation of Democratic politicians.

But Ralph is just an egotistical line-jumper, waiting for the race to boil down to just two contenders before he enters. If he had ever been serious, he wouldn't have burned his bridges with the Greens and would have gotten his hands dirty with the hard work of running a party. But, no, he just turns up like a groundhog again. If he sees his shadow, it's 4 more years of Republican winter. If we wanted anyone like him, we would have gone with Dennis Kucinich, whose politics are similar but who has some experience in office.

Since Ralph nearly took the Green Party down with him in 2000, no other party will have him. If he has any money at all, it has to come from Republican troublemakers. If that turns out to be the case, Ralph needs their names to be hung around his neck like an anvil, and to be publicly humiliated so badly that he'll gladly trade the memories of his last run with those of a ritual satanic abuse survivor.

Disclosure #1: I voted for Ralph in 2000
Disclousure #2: In my state it didn't matter
 
 
Peach Pie
19:49 / 26.02.08
Given that Edwards has yet to endorse, I'm thinking he's angling for a VP slot with one of the two up front. Isn't that what he did last time? He's got the same vibe as Obama (Yes, We Can!), but this makes me think he'd be more useful to Clinton. Hope + Gravitas.

I don't think there's much question of it, but also, neither clinton nor obama will concede until august. the superdelegates have too much sway. I think he'd rather work with obama, not only because he'll perceive him as being easier to influence, but also because he'll look more experienced alonside obama than he would clinton.
 
 
Mr. Joe Deadly
13:11 / 27.02.08
neither clinton nor obama will concede until august. the superdelegates have too much sway.

In light of yesterday's debate (hopefully the last between the candidates as well as the last ever moderated by Tim Russert) and Obama's steady climb in both Texas and Ohio polls, I think if Obama wins both states on March 4 Clinton will do the right thing and concede shortly thereafter. Like Guiliani in Florida, Clinton's post-Super Tuesday survival has been premised entirely on her March 4 victories. (See Bill.) If she can't even win in the two states she has most vigorously contested - and that is now a real possibility - then it'll be over, superdelegates notwithstanding.

Of course, it's entirely possible Clinton holds those states.
 
 
diz
19:27 / 27.02.08
Given that Edwards has yet to endorse, I'm thinking he's angling for a VP slot with one of the two up front. Isn't that what he did last time? He's got the same vibe as Obama (Yes, We Can!), but this makes me think he'd be more useful to Clinton. Hope + Gravitas.

I don't think there's much question of it, but also, neither clinton nor obama will concede until august.


The gossip is that Edwards is not interested in trying to be VP again. I don't see it happening.

Also, Clinton's staff has essentially conceded that she will concede if she doesn't win both Ohio and Texas. If she wins Ohio and not Texas, I can see her trying to hang on until PA, but no later. You're right, the superdelegates do have a lot of power, and they've made it clear that they're not going to let this go on much longer.
 
 
Peach Pie
17:53 / 28.02.08
I seem to remember edwards saying he wasn't interested in VP in 2004 though. I may be wrong. It's still his best chance of becoming president.
 
 
diz
21:33 / 28.02.08
I seem to remember edwards saying he wasn't interested in VP in 2004 though. I may be wrong.

Well, everyone says that they don't want to be VP, but they seldom turn it down, but apparently sources inside the campaign say he really means it.

In any case, it's a moot point. He doesn't really have enough leverage now to swing being kingmaker. He doesn't really have many delegates, his voters have already chosen a second choice by now, and he has almost no stroke behind the scenes to woo superdelegates. Mayyybe a month and a half ago his influence would have been important, but not now.

It's still his best chance of becoming president.

That's true, but Edwards, thankfully, is never going to be president, and I think he's come to terms with that.
 
 
Tsuga
22:09 / 28.02.08
I was hearing the results of a new Pew survey and it made me think about who Obama might actually choose. Going against McCain, it may make sense to have someone with a good deal of either military or foreign policy experience, which Edwards doesn't really have. They'll probably go white/male as well, so as not to scare some people off. That's a sad but surely true part of their calculations. I thought of Wesley Clark, but did a search and discovered he's campaigning for Clinton now, and would be more likely to be her VP. I wonder, though. Sam Nunn's name has been bandied about, so has Anthony Zinni's (though that's probably not gonna happen). Joe Biden is a good prospect, though he's so...flinty. There are, of course, a shit ton of other people. It will be interesting to see, if he does end up getting to name a running-mate. It looks very likely, but Hilary is still in the race, for a few more days at least.
 
 
diz
22:33 / 28.02.08
Presuming Obama is the nominee, I don't think white/male is going to be a big part of their calculations. I think they're going to go the other way, build on the momentum they have and push for a more visible change in that respect. My guess is that they're also going to go with a moderate Western governor, someone who plays well in red states and with independents, has executive experience, and isn't too closely associated with Washington. Solidify the "outsider" image, build up credibility with swing voters. Shoring up support among Latinos will be a huge plus. My guess is that the short list looks like Kathleen Sibellius, Janet Napolitano, and Bill Richardson. Tim Kaine or Bill Ritter shouldn't be ruled out, and what's-his-name from Montana might even be considered, but I think it will probably end up being one of the first three mentioned.

Napolitano has the advantages of being popular in a red Western border state with a large Latino population, and being a woman, but the disadvantage of being from McCain's home state, so it's doubtful she could carry it for the ticket. Sibellius is a strong contender, but there are not a lot of Latinos in her state and I think they would think long and hard about trying to make a serious play for Kansas. Richardson is perhaps a bit too much of an insider, and is maybe a little too wonky, but he could really help carry NM, CO, and NV.
 
  

Page: 1(2)34567... 8

 
  
Add Your Reply