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Also, how do you know how big the young voter turnout is? And why do you refer to it in the past tense? Jesus god, did I already miss the election? GODDAM SLEEPING PILLS
As to the young voter turnout, I was going off what seems to be the accepted wisdom; that is, a lot of younger people turned out for the Dem primaries. That's also why I was referring to it in the past tense.
I could have sworn that the numbers related to the Bradley effect were between 10 and 15 percent...could be wrong, though. Taking my own state (Michigan) as an example, I could easily see the frankly enormous amount of closet racists turning the tide, especially in places like Oakland County.
Ah, another poor, unfortunate Michigan resident. How goes it?
Anyway, I can't honestly see the closet racist numbers being as high as 10, 15 percent. According to our .gov site, we've got over 7 million registered voters. So if they all were to turn out, that would be at least 700,000 people who would say they'd vote for Obama and would actually end up doing otherwise. Racism is prevalent here, certainly, but I don't think there's going to be that many.
I don't believe that Obama will carry these states by as large a margin as what it looks like right now, no, but I really can't see why he wouldn't still carry them.
I feel I should also mention that he's up by 8 points in VIRGINIA. Democrats don't take Virginia. The closest any of them came in recent memory was Bill Clinton in '96, and he lost it to Dole by 2 points.
(side-note: Looking over old electoral maps... George HW Bush took California? Jesus. No wonder no one has heard from Micheal Dukakis since, he must still be in hiding... Kind of interesting to see that Texas went blue back in '76.) |
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