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| I seriously dread every news report I hear coming out of that region now...Ariel Sharon has finally gotten what he wanted, an excuse to settle old scores, ie. pick up where he left off from the previous war in Lebanon. It seems more like a personal vendetta thing at this point between him and Arafat in certain ways. This shit was not going on when Rabin was in office, real peace for the region seemed so close back then. Now, I don't know. Its hard to say where this will lead, but there is always the possibility of an escalation via other nations becoming involved. From what I've heard, fighting has broken out along the Lebanese border with the Hezbollah, and I wouldn't be suprised if Syria starts moving troops to its border with Israel. At the same time, I kind of doubt that other nations would become actively involved in the sense of an actual Arab-Israeli war like in '73, but given what has gone on in recent years in other parts of the world where Muslims were being threatened (Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, wars in Bosnia, Chechnya, etc.), I'm thinking the more likely scenario is a jihad-type situation with volunteers from all over the Muslim world coming to say, Lebanon, to try and cross the border, or maybe Syria. Jordan and Egypt seem less likely to allow that to happen, but one never knows. I do anticipate riots and coup attempts in Egypt over that nation's peace treaty with Israel; also, there is alot of undergound radical Islamic activity there, so it shouldn't be too surpising. Probably rioting in other Arab/Muslim nations with pro-US govts., as Bush seems to be distancing himself now from the idea of a Palestinian state. This of course could seriuously blow up in our faces when we start to go after Iraq. Also, our antagonism towards Iran could lead to problems with Russia down the line, as those two countries are drawing closer together. In addition, Israel has some kind of defence treaty with Turkey, which is also a NATO member, is the location of major US bases, and is currently occupying a piece of Iraq due to its counter-insurgency against the Kurds. This overlapping of NATO and the situation in the MidEast is something that should concern everyone, as tensions continue to escalate in the region. I don't see all-out war per se, more like a collapse of pro-western govts. in the region as the Israeli-Palestinian war spirals into a quagmire with mujahideen raids into northern Israel and an exponential increase in terrorism. Hopefully, the UN can step in and intervene, but I doubt it. |
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