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Burma Protests

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16:33 / 23.09.07

Interesting times, as the old curse goes, in Burma, or Myamar as its unelected military junta would like us to call it.

Subject of various flavours of military dictatorship since 1962, Burma actually held what were largely regarded as democratic elections in 1990. The results would have put Aung san suu kyi in power, but the military decided to ignore the results and has been in power ever since.

Aung San Syu Kyi has spent much of the time since under house arrest, but now it seems that the protests of a new generation of Buddhist monks seems to be spearheading a popular pro-democratic uprising.

Deatails here

So what do people make of this uprising - what hopes are there for a successful and bloodless revolution or will the military crack down attempt to silence the protest?

Does anybody care about Burma?

21:14 / 24.09.07

I think right now the generals are weighing their options, and trying to gauge whether or not the brutal force used before would cow the opposition or set off broader resistance. My hope is that this will be the beginning of a broader wave of change, but to be totally cynical I expect the junta to come up with a crackdown that is sudden, brutal, and surgically cuts the opposition to ribbons.

22:53 / 24.09.07

Listened to a BBC report on NPR Thursday night and it's hard to gauge what the military reaction will be there. They have been trying to popularize anti-buddhist propaganda in the country to make their actions appear more palatable but it doesn't seem to be gaining much foothold.

There is hope that as international awareness of the situation is increasing it will make a strong military reaction more difficult to pull-off without raising opposition.

13:19 / 25.09.07

Does anybody care about Burma?

I care, and the current wave of protest seems really hopeful to me because it's so massive. I don't seem to be able to get from 'caring' to 'doing anything to help'*. What does it mean to care if you don't/can't do anything? (*unless I believe in intercessory prayer). What ways of helping are available to skint busy people with short attention spans in overdeveloped nations?

My Mom Thinks I'm Cool

13:27 / 25.09.07

I don't know too much about culture in Burma but it sounded like violent intercession was less likely as the protests are being directed by monks, who have a bit of respect in the country.

but maybe that's just some BBC reporter's idea of what's going on.

wasn't there (slowly) some progress being made in terms of ASEAN putting new pressure on Burma? did that ever go anywhere?

not sure how much good it actually does, but there was a benefit thing called "For the Lady" where you buy a 2 CD set of music with various artists and the money goes to some awareness campaign for Ang San Suu Kyi and Burma. The music wasn't bad.

15:44 / 25.09.07

Bush announces new sanctions against Burma (Telegraph UK)

Good news? Bad news? My knee-jerk says this is another opportunity for Bush to say "Freedom" a lot, but perhaps this betrays my poor understanding of global politics?

Tryphena Absent

08:58 / 26.09.07

Burmese riot police attack monks

Closed for Business Time

14:04 / 26.09.07

A good news outlet and info page on Burmese politics is the Democratic Voice of Burma, a radio-station/website operating from Norway.

There seems to be a lull in the protests after the junta has started the killing and called a 6pm-6am curfew. I'm guessing the situation is at or nearing a make or break point. It will also be interesting to see what China will say at the emergency Security Council meeting later this afternoon, as they seem to be the only country with the know-how and clout to profoundly and immediately influence the situation.

17:27 / 26.09.07

China's default position is to argue against interference in domestic political issues, so I wouldn't expect them to do much.

22:33 / 26.09.07

yeah, just wait til the monks enter the wu tang and serve the junta up some tiger fist action

sorry

watching this in the papers for the past week and a half all i could wonder was: what was the point? the regime holds no qualms in regards to the beatings and mass arrests, even indefinite imprisonment of, political protestors and opposition leaders, this will end badly and no good will come of it, unless i'm wrong, in which case the military will call for general elections, that lady on house arrest will be freed, and the price of gas will drop back down to pre-demonstration levels

Closed for Business Time

10:45 / 27.09.07

Unfortunately it looks like diz was right - China and Russia blocked any strong statements of intent from the Security Council ("it's all an internal affair..") and unless the Chinese plan to do it by themselves (and therefore likely for themselves) I don't think any external political actors other than China will stand much chance of significantly influencing these events.

In reply to bacon - the major difference between previous uprisings and demonstrations and this uprising is the strong presence of the munks and nuns. The fact that the military are starting to kill and detain them may bring the situation to a tipping point where not only the broad masses of civilians join the protests, but where conscientious members of the armed forces may put down their weapons. They're Buddhist too you know.

10:56 / 27.09.07

Isn't the media attention different this time too? How much attention did the atrocities during the last uprising get in international news media? Did the Security Council meet to discuss the situation last time?

There's obviously a question about whether the govt of Burma/Myanmar care about international attention. What do they care about, in international relations?

Closed for Business Time

11:22 / 27.09.07

Isn't the media attention different this time too? How much attention did the atrocities during the last uprising get in international news media? Did the Security Council meet to discuss the situation last time?

Indeed, last time around there was no WWW, no mobile phones and little in the way of dedicated TV news channels etc. In 8/8 '88 most of the info came only post-facto. I don't know whether the SC met then.

There's obviously a question about whether the govt of Burma/Myanmar care about international attention. What do they care about, in international relations?

Not much? Their main trading (legal) trading partners are China and Taiwan. India too is seeking more contact, perhaps wishing to counter the Chinese. ASEAN have largely disowned them, EU and the USA sanction them. But overall China is the country pulling the strings, and as long as they're satisfied with the state of affairs it's unlikely that change will happen from the top down.

13:34 / 27.09.07

Anyone else heard about 'wear a red shirt on Friday' (2007-09-28, the Friday that's tomorrow) in support of the protestors in Burma?

There's a part of me saying "how's that meant to help exactly?"

How tightly controlled are news media in Burma/Myanmar? Will any of the protestors get to hear about it if millions of folk wear red tops tomorrow?

ONLY NICE THINGS

13:54 / 27.09.07

I think primarily key here is China. As long as lines with China remain open, sanctions from the rest of the international community will have a rather blunted impact. China is a significant importer of hydrocarbons from Myanmar, so it immediately has a complicated relationship when it comes to enforcing the will of the international community. As long as China is prepared to support the Junta, it can probably maintain itself. In the balance there is China's own relationship with the international community, I guess, and how it balances global perception with the usefulness of Myanmar. There's a theory, not entirely fanciful, that it wants to avoid both being seen as a sponsor of murderous tyranny and having a failed state in Myannmar, because it would be an awkward sell for the Beijing Olympics...

14:14 / 27.09.07

I am following CNN International coverage of the protests (they don't seem to be talking about anything else now)And there are pictures of budhist monasteries that are strangely devoided of monks in them, but with blood stains all over. Plus, many blogs that were the main source of information on the local situation have not been updated since yesterday.

That makes me think the situation may be a lot worse than it seems from TV coverage, which btw is already pretty bad.

15:25 / 27.09.07

Saami Nolte

the major difference between previous uprisings and demonstrations and this uprising is the strong presence of the munks and nuns.

Unfortunately, that's not true. The monks were heavily involved in the previous uprising, and the government shot them in the street.

apt plutology

How tightly controlled are news media in Burma/Myanmar? Will any of the protestors get to hear about it if millions of folk wear red tops tomorrow?

My understanding is that it's pretty tightly controlled, and I would have to say it's unlikely that they would hear about it. Can't hurt, I suppose, but unlikely to help.

Haus

I think primarily key here is China. As long as lines with China remain open, sanctions from the rest of the international community will have a rather blunted impact. China is a significant importer of hydrocarbons from Myanmar, so it immediately has a complicated relationship when it comes to enforcing the will of the international community.

Agreed. China's need for fossil fuels to power its explosive growth should not be underestimated here, and the Chinese government sees continued rapid economic growth as the key to social stability and its own grip on power. Between that and general support for the principle of nonintervention, especially on its own doorstep, it would take a lot to get China to lean on the junta.

In the balance there is China's own relationship with the international community, I guess, and how it balances global perception with the usefulness of Myanmar. There's a theory, not entirely fanciful, that it wants to avoid both being seen as a sponsor of murderous tyranny and having a failed state in Myannmar, because it would be an awkward sell for the Beijing Olympics...

It seems like a wait-and-see strategy is in order here for China. If the generals manage to subdue the revolt in short order, it will have become yesterday's news by the time of the Olympics. If it looks like a more sustained thing, or if it looks like it may actually be successful, they will probably be easier to get onboard for action, at least in the name of stabilizing the country.

15:37 / 27.09.07

The BBC has reported movements by the army against foreign journalists in Burma and against monasteries and against people who have sent pictures and so on out of the country. I think I read that a Japanese journalist has been killed? The BBC show screenshots of offical TV coverage saying that the BBC are spreading lies - it's interesting to read that, since I was thinking how much the official version is being given space in the BBC coverage.

I guess the BBC perhaps has an amount of access in the country. Apparently Burma/Myanmar used to be colonised by the UK, 50 years ago. Perhaps the legacy of those times includes subscriptions to BBC news services - why else would the official channel start saying the BBC are telling lies?

Apparently directly uploading photos to hosting sites is less traceable so is still available for getting data out of the country, despite the state-controlled ISPs. Anyone know about any international geek efforts to support hosting for exported data?

Closed for Business Time

15:53 / 27.09.07

diz - point taken. However, a number of reports have emphasised the fact that although demonstrations started mid-August as a result of price hikes for fuel and other basic resources, the mobilisations didn't really escalate until Sept 17th. That was the deadline the clergy had given the junta for apologising for firing warning shots against protesting monks on the 5th. When no apology came, the clergy stepped up their protests.

That said, you're right that the monks and nuns were instrumental in previous uprisings as well, including 8888. My bad.

07:54 / 28.09.07

Messages of support to the clerics from David Milliband, offical complaints being made in relation to the death of the Japanese journalist, Singapore govt expresses 'revulsion' at the violence. The Burma/Myanmar government are allowing the UN special envoy entry to the country, who is currently in Singapore on his way there. (from BBC news this morning).

51737 people so far have agreed to wear a red shirt for Burma linked to the invitation on Facebook, with another 21378 having replied that they 'maybe' are going to.

Closed for Business Time

09:12 / 28.09.07

The Democratic Voice of Burma says soldiers from the 33rd division stationed in Mandalay yesterday refused to fire on protestors and munks, with unconfirmed reports claiming some instead joined the demonstrators. According to the same sources the 99th divison was sent in to replace the 33rd. Their sources seem to believe that the army is showing signs of internal conflict, with further rumours stating that the military commander in Yangon has been replaced. The internet connections seems to have been shut down, with official spokesmen for the junta claiming that it's due to a problem with an undersea cable [yeah right]. Communications are definitely slower than before. Things are hotting up.

Anyone wearing a red shirt today?

13:26 / 28.09.07

red makes me look blotchy, i'm a winter

the junta found the alternative to shooting the monks in the street: not letting them into the street

with the UN envoy set to arrive saturday looks like they have about 24 hours to mop everything up and make the place presentable

but the rumors of those rows of bodies...

14:09 / 28.09.07

The Democratic Voice of Burma says soldiers from the 33rd division stationed in Mandalay yesterday refused to fire on protestors and munks, with unconfirmed reports claiming some instead joined the demonstrators. According to the same sources the 99th divison was sent in to replace the 33rd. Their sources seem to believe that the army is showing signs of internal conflict, with further rumours stating that the military commander in Yangon has been replaced.

Now that's exciting news! Thank you, SN!

14:15 / 28.09.07

It's huge news, isn't it?

I just read on news.bbc that several embassies and large companies in Burma/Myanmar have their own satellite internet connection, which accounts for the continuing reports from people inside the country.

My Mom Thinks I'm Cool

14:15 / 28.09.07

Anyone wearing a red shirt today?

I am. Haven't noticed anyone else doing so, yet.

20:06 / 28.09.07

Video shows Japanese journalist Kenji Nagai 'being shot deliberately' (The Times online)

STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK

23:08 / 28.09.07

Not sure of the veracity of this source, but wow.

09:03 / 29.09.07

Right. That source reports that members of a second army division, the 66th, also refused orders yesterday and defended protestors. They also report a possible takeover by Gen. Maung Aye, who is chronically sick with prostate cancer but supposed to be more rational than Gen. Than Shwe, and who may be prepared to include the democratists in govt as opposition.

They wrote The organisation Helfen ohne Grenzen (Help without Frontiers) is reporting that "Soldiers from the 66th LID (Light Infantry Divison) have turned their weapons against other government troops and possibly police in North Okkalappa township in Rangoon and are defending the protesters. At present unsure how many soldiers involved."

09:26 / 29.09.07

An eyewitness reported late yesterday to the BBC that the thousands of monks and other protestors trucked away from Yangon/Rangoon on Thursday/Friday have been taken to an old race course that has been turned into a temporary prison camp.

Another eyewitness this morning says that loudspeakers in the streets are warning people that their house will be demolished if they shelter anyone fleeing, and that they should not look out of the windows, which sounds awful.

The nearby BBC correspondent based in Thailand - one source I read this morning says that Burma/Myanmar is closed to foreign journalists? - reports that goverment-run internet from Burma/Myanmar is back on today (Saturday), which he says indicates the government thinks it has the protests controlled.

Another local report points out that the humanitarian situation is bad because the mains water is foul, people can't move around in the city to get food, and the five-gallon water bottles people need for drinking are not getting delivered.

11:23 / 29.09.07

I just noticed that DVB's asking for pictures and footage messages to the people of Burma/Myanmar, to be screened on DVB TV, if anyone's inclined.

Closed for Business Time

10:18 / 30.09.07

According to the Norwegian paper Aftenposten, a colonel in the Burmese army has defected to the Karen people's guerilla forces and is now trying to gain access to Thailand. A Norwegian-German journalist who claims to be in his company has spoken to Norwegian media. The colonel is claiming that THOUSANDS have been killed. Apparently the officer defected when he was ordered to raid two monasteries, bundle the monks onto trucks, drive them into the jungle and kill them there, burying the bodies away from prying eyes.
Things might be a lot of worse than we have known so far. This information has not been verified by other sources.

10:38 / 30.09.07

Wow, what's to say? That sounds awful.

New Scientist reports human rights activists are working on getting hold of satellite footage to monitor the situation: resolution goes as far as 1 pixel per metre.

02:12 / 01.10.07

UN envoy meets with opposition leader Suu Kyi...
Gambarini, however, failed to meet with the junta's two top leaders.

With an estimated 15,000 soldiers in all directions, no monks are on the streets as they have all been arrested, killed or locked inside their monasteries.
...
The protests dwindled and all but halted last Thursday, after the military opened fire on demonstrators.

At least 10 people were killed, including a Japanese journalist, but Western leaders fear there may have been many more deaths than those officially reported by the Burmese government.

Apparently, some of the military shaved their heads in order to infiltrate the monks

16:53 / 02.10.07

Washington Post essentially calls for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics. Unless China starts applying some muscle.

17:28 / 02.10.07

thank you, grant, that article made me feel some burst of hope to help the Burmese.

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