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The Next Enemy?

 
  

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elene
11:00 / 11.04.06
Iran made a big deal of two weapons it tested during the recent Holy Prophet manoeuvres. One is supposed to be "a radar-evading missile capable of hitting multiple targets," but this was strongly demented in the West. It's probably a variant Scud C with a range of about 700km. The other was a high-speed underwater missile-torpedo. The authenticity of this weapon was much more weakly demented, it seems it may well be real. If it is, it is a threat to US aircraft carriers in the Gulf.

I can't imagine that Iran would attack Israel with a nuclear weapon, had it one, outside the context of an ongoing conflict on that general scale. Certainly not merely to destroy a part of the Palestinian homeland in order to save it. The Mullahs are not interested in the myths of the elders of sion, and though it's just possible Ahmadinejad is, it's highly unlikely. He wants more power, but the Mullahs are not interested in permitting him more.

Iranian nuclear weapons, like this high-speed torpedo, would serve just one purpose, at least though the next twenty years. They would make it difficult for the USA to influence Iranian policy through its military force. It's certainly true that in an all-out conflict between Iran and the USA it would be Israel that would face and possibly suffer Iran's nuclear arsenal rather than the USA itself, but that's merely because the conflict would take place close to Teheran rather than Washington.

It's certainly not good that the world is full of armed nuclear powers, and one more does make the situation incrementally worse than it was before. Nevertheless, Iran is absolutely right to seek complete control of the nuclear fuel cycle because it will need this technology in the future, even if it had no military use for it.

I never apologised for getting picky about your use of the word "apocalypse" in another recent thread, not jack. I am sorry, and that's a good point too.
 
 
sleazenation
11:21 / 11.04.06
As far as I'm aware, Iranian missiles might well have a sizable range, but their guidence systems aren't too great - in the, in my view unlikely, event that they launched a pre-emptive missile strike against Israel they are just as likely to hit Jordan and Iraq as they are to hit their supposed target...
 
 
elene
11:41 / 11.04.06
... they are just as likely to hit Jordan and Iraq as they are to hit their supposed target...
Yes, though I'm sure they are improving. That's probably what makes their claim to "a radar-evading missile capable of hitting multiple targets," so unlikely.
 
 
The Natural Way
12:14 / 11.04.06
I'd just like to interupt for a moment to express my concern re boboss's attempt to supress Not Jack's individual posting style.
 
 
Baz Auckland
22:49 / 11.04.06
Well, they now have uranium...

Iran's president said Tuesday that the country "has joined the club of nuclear countries" by successfully enriching uranium for the first time — a key process in what Iran maintains is a peaceful energy program.

The Security Council has given them until the 28th to stop... then what? China and Russia will block a resolution? Does the US have any spare bombers and whatnot to send even if they wanted to?
 
 
sleazenation
00:12 / 12.04.06
Well, as far as I'm aware one of the problems is that Iran has always had fuck loads of Uranium, the problem was enriching it, which they now appear to have done, if current reports are to be believed.

But am I missing something? Isn't this step is still a ways off of Iran having a working nuclear power station and quite a long way off having the capacity to build a nuclear warhead.

I guess the danger is that Iran now has nuclear scientists who know how to enrich uranium and could potentially disseminate that information more widely. Iran also has the capacity to enrich Uranium for itself.
 
 
Slim
00:43 / 12.04.06
Aren't Patriot missles a load of old baollocks?

During the first Gulf War, Patriot missiles were 0-for-everything. Part of the reason for why the military lied about their effectiveness was to keep the Israelis, who were sometimes struck by the Scud missiles, from realizing that the U.S. was helpless in regards to protecting them from missile attacks.

During OIF, Patriot missiles went 9-9 in destroying threatening Iraqi ballistic missiles. Quite impressive, really. However, the Patriots are only useful for destroying ballistic missiles. They missed 5 cruise missiles and in the confusion actually hit friendly targets. Patriot missiles, as they exist now, don't perform well against cruise missiles because the Patriot system uses a ground-based radar that's obstructed by the horizon 30km out and beyond. Hence the reason why low-flying cruise missiles aren't even noticed until it's too late.
 
 
Baz Auckland
03:20 / 12.04.06
Adding on sleazenation's post, I just read this:

From BBC News: Iran Years Away From Having a Bomb

For uranium to work in a nuclear reactor, it needs only a small amount of enrichment. Weapons-grade uranium must be highly enriched.

Gas centrifuges are one way of enriching uranium. Iran already has 164 centrifuge machines installed at its pilot centrifuge plant at Natanz, but that is only a fifth of the total it needs before it is fully operational.

Frank Barnaby, consultant the Oxford Research Group, agrees that Iran does not yet have a critical number of centrifuges in place. "They don't currently have enough centrifuges working - so far as we know - to produce significant amounts of highly-enriched uranium or even enriched uranium. They would need a lot more," he told the BBC News website

Even if the plant is made fully operational, it is currently configured to produce low enriched uranium (LEU) rather than the weapons-grade highly-enriched uranium (HEU). So given these limitations, the IISS believes it would take Iran at least a decade to produce enough HEU for a single nuclear weapon.

Dr Barnaby agrees. "The CIA says 10 years to a bomb using highly enriched uranium and that is a reasonable and realistic figure in my opinion," he said.


It sort of makes these writings of 'standoffs' and all that sort of...well, pre-mature?
 
 
sleazenation
09:58 / 10.05.06
It all seems to boil down to your interpretation of 'imminent', as this BBC article on the potential legality of a US led strike on Iran outlines.

My fear is that it doesn't matter how shakey the legal ground, the US will proceed with a first strike against Iran anyway, rendering any debate about legality obsolete in the face of a new reality on the ground.
 
 
Quantum
21:52 / 10.05.06
Is this short comedy film in bad taste? (note to the sensitive, it's a satire about bombing Iran)

What I noticed was the '2008' emblem which seemed to me spookily close to when I think the invasion will begin.
 
 
unheimlich manoeuvre
17:07 / 13.09.06
Not Iran but Afghanistan.
(This seemed the best place to post but I'm happy have it moved if there's somewhere better.)

The Guardian Sept. 6th, 2006
"Pakistan President Defends Cease-Fire."

The cease-fire being with the (mainly) Pashtuns who live in the areas bordering Afghanistan.
Does this mean that there will be a massive influx of fighters opposing the US/UK/Nato occupation of Afghanistan?
Although commentators I've read elsewhere disagree, I think so.
They defeated the Soviets in the 80's, so is this history repeating itself?
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
18:58 / 13.09.06
They defeated the Soviets in the 80's, so is this history repeating itself?

Basically, you just DON'T INVADE AFGHANISTAN. I know little about military strategy, but that's one thing I do know. WHY our bosses never knew it, I have no idea. Maybe they missed a meeting.

Soon after 11/9, I consoled myself with the fact that nobody would be stupid enough to send ground troops into Afghanistan.

Ever-so-slightly less soon after 11/9, I was impressed at the depths of stupidity that can be plumbed,
 
  

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