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The Next Enemy?

 
  

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We're The Great Old Ones Now
16:33 / 05.10.05
Iran accused of sponsoring attacks on British soldiers in Iraq:

While UK officials have hinted at an Iranian link before, this is the first specific allegation to be made.

They may feel there is little to lose right now by making such accusations, given that diplomatic relations are already low following the breakdown of talks over Iran's nuclear programme, says the BBC website's world affairs correspondent, Paul Reynolds.


Well, it's not unlikely that Iranians are involved in Islamist insurgency in Iraq. In fact, it would be surprising if they weren't. But this is uncomfortable territory, because of course it was always suggested that the next stop for the Bush-Blair travelling Circus of Neo-Con Liberation was Iran. So if Mr. Blair, the truthful, the compassionate, were looking to prime the pump for another foreign adventure, this would be a place to start.
 
 
All Acting Regiment
16:54 / 05.10.05
Well, it's not unlikely that Iranians are involved in Islamist insurgency in Iraq.

Just to clarify, is that "some people of Iranian extraction", or "The State Of Iran"?
 
 
grant
17:44 / 05.10.05
Well, I know the "State of Iran" is a kind of complicated thing right now... might be hard to determine what's people and what's government.
 
 
bjacques
18:54 / 05.10.05
What about the Fearless Iranians From Hell (San Antonio punk band, 1986-1990)?

Yeah, way to antagonize a budding nuclear power.
 
 
Slim
01:53 / 06.10.05
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the technology had come from Hezbollah in Lebanon via Iran and produced an "explosively shaped projectile".

I think it's a leap in logic to assume that Iran directed the transfer.
 
 
pointless & uncalled for
06:37 / 06.10.05
Just to clarify, is that "some people of Iranian extraction", or "The State Of Iran"?

The article states, and probably quite faithfully, that Britain has accused the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (the elite arm of the Iranian Army) of supplying technology (a word used to mean broad range of military hardware extending beyond but not excluding firearms, munitions and ordinance).

Ergo, the claim is that the national army of Iran is fueling insurgency and politically this levels the accusation at the government because it automatically presumes a chain of command. However, this is not a set in stone accusation, because it provides Iran with at least two outs. One would be to provide demonstrable and irrefutable evidence that the "technology" did not come from an official source. The other would be to unearth corruption in the military and deal with it.

Neither are courses of action that Iran would want to take as both would be perceived as subjugatory to western authority and, despite overtures of peace and so on, the average Iranian in the streeet isn't that enamoured of us. Apparently something about us spending decades trying to shove them into a nice western shaped hole.

Naturally Iran has responded with a counter-claim, cleverly using its existing criticisms, in an attempt to create a form of impasse. After all, why should they answer to us if we won't answer theirs. The end result is a two claim, two refutation no score draw and the ref (UN) think he may have left his cards at home. Neato.

Just to keep the waters a bit interesting though, Iran caveats their position by declaring that they would like Iraq to be nice and stable right about now as it's in their best interests. They haven't said what kind of stable Iraq they would like and we're not so foolish as to get dragged in on this one. Politics getting a bit old school again.
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
12:13 / 06.10.05
Of course, Mr Tony would have even less of a mandate to go into Iran than Iraq- bearing in mind that just prior to the last election, we were told it was pretty much out of the question, therefore a lot of people voted for the fucker under even falser pretenses than usual.

Mind you, it never seems to have bothered him in the past.
 
 
pointless & uncalled for
12:31 / 06.10.05
True.

But if the Iranian Government have been ostensibly supplying arms to Iraqis for the purpose of attacking British Armed Forces or knew about it and did nothing then we have a repeat of the Afghanistan situation that the US were in, in 2001. Not quite the same scale but it provides a mandate and nullifies the election promise.

Easy bit of spin there.

The real danger would lie in involving the US, whose record on Iran is completely fucking shit to say the least.

Here's the good news though. Due to various agreements, principles and the like we can't stomp over Iran until we exit Iraq due to current military staffing levels and budgets. Of course an exit stage east isn't out of the question. Handily leaving an Iraq re-entry a very quick option.

Tactical convenience sir? Suits you Tony, suits you.
 
 
grime
17:54 / 06.10.05
forgive what might be an oversimplification, but wouldn't iran prefer to support the iraqi shia majority government, rather than the iraqi sunni-led insurgencey?
 
 
sleazenation
20:13 / 06.10.05
In the south it is a shia-led insurgency against the occupation - the so-called mahdi army associated to Moqtada al sadr...
 
 
sleazenation
20:14 / 06.10.05
Which is to say that there is a anti-occupation shia faction...
 
 
Slim
04:33 / 07.10.05
I remain suspicious of this story.
 
 
sleazenation
06:31 / 07.10.05
In what respect? because it came from a British diplomat who asked not to be named? Because it shows a reliance on US or israli intelligence? or for some other reason?
 
 
grime
14:48 / 07.10.05
thanks sleaze, i'd forgotten about sadr. it seems like every week i learn (or re-learn) some new peiece of the puzzle that shows just how amazingly / frighteningly complex iraq really is.

i know it's pointless to guess at motivations, but if i was the goverment of iran, i'd still prefer to set up a puppet government in baghdad, rather than try to swim upstream against the occupation through proxy militias. from what i know the badr brigade (or some offshoot or permutation) is more involved with politics than insurgencey.

i suppose different factions and/or cabals in terhan support their own pet groups within iraq. which, of course, makes blaming the entire government (i.e. as an excuse to invade) kind of a murky issue.
 
 
sleazenation
16:17 / 07.10.05
Al Sadr is a young firebrand cleric... but since there isn't a guarenteed distinction between church and state in Iraq yet (and nor is their likely to be) that does not preclude him from being a small, yet significant, political force.

It is also probably worth noting that Iran was a democracy until a US/UK backed coup restored the monarchy in the guise of the Shahs. The last Shah was removed from power in a popular uprising that soon led to the Islamic revolution...
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
16:29 / 07.10.05
Oh, God, yeah. The whole region is blowing back in so many different ways. I just wanted to put in a marker to remind everyone that we're SO NOT going to war in Iran. Do you hear me, Tony? NO. BAD PM. BAD.
 
 
grime
20:58 / 07.10.05
so sleaze, are you saying that it's more likely that elements in terhan are supporting sadr's shia insurgencey/nascent political movement in order to influence the iraqi government rather than to support their military actions against the americans?

it still seems odd to me, that iran would support insurgents in iraq. what's the upside?
 
 
sleazenation
21:30 / 07.10.05
Grime - no, i don't think I am going that far...

Unlike the 80s, this isn't Iran VS Iraq (or more accurately Iraq Vs Iran). There are various factions. Moqtadr al Sadr is very different cleric from Al Sistani, and the ethnic Shia who have spent most of their lives outside of iraq are different again.

What I'm saying is simply this - there are a lot more factions in iraq at play than simply shia, sunni and kurd...
 
 
grime
20:44 / 11.10.05
i hear you.

i often find myself dismissing most of the analysis of iraq because it seems almost impossible to avoid glossing over important subtleties. but it is fascinating.
 
 
unheimlich manoeuvre
21:48 / 18.12.05
Bumping this thread because diplomacy with Iran is souring.

Iran Could Be Sanctioned for Riling Israel
The Guardian. Sat December 17, 2005

Iran could face sanctions if it keeps provoking Israel and the West, European leaders warned Saturday, even as the Tehran regime's interior minister said the Iranian president's remarks had been ``misunderstood.''

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad aggravated tensions with the West this week by calling the Holocaust a ``myth,'' a statement that came two months after he called for Israel to be ``wiped off the map.''


Seymour Hersh broke the news, months ago, that the USA had troops already in Iran intelligence gathering. The recent comments by the Iranian President have increased the possiblity of overt miltary intervention. I so hope this is mere *saber rattling*.
 
 
sleazenation
22:19 / 18.12.05
What I find truly worrying is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reported visions of the missing Imam.
 
 
unheimlich manoeuvre
22:49 / 18.12.05
Very worrying.
How much power does Ahmadinejad have? Is he the mouth-piece of the Guardian Council?
 
 
sleazenation
06:57 / 19.12.05
Not really, and here is where it actually gets encouraging...
President Ahmadinejad has tried three times to install an unqualified crony in the important Oil Ministry and has been thwarted by the processes of the Iranian state
.

Iran has got democratic elements within some of its institutions of government. That democracy is is not yet fully developed and lacks much true power, but I still have tremendous hope for the development of indigenous Iranian democracy...
 
 
JOY NO WRY
09:57 / 02.01.06
The German media has been dancing around the idea that America/allies are on the verge of stopping Iran's nuclear program the hard way - with pre-emptive strikes against nuclear and military facilities. Iran has naturally given its standard 'bring it on' response, but seems to think this is nothing more than an attack on their confidence.

So is something building up, here, or is this just more scaremongering?
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
15:52 / 03.01.06
Ken MacLeod is as readable as ever on the subject...

In yesterday's Sunday Herald, Iain MacWhirter mentions that Blair sounded so chipper at a pre-Christmas press briefing that hacks were left wondering if he knows something they don't. Given what the man is capable of, that should send a shiver down the spine. I once argued that Blair couldn't talk us into another war, but that was based on the mistaken assumption that he would have to.
 
 
invisible_al
22:22 / 20.01.06
The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse. This is an interesting theory about some of the reasons Bush went to war with Iraq and why war with Iran seems to be brewing.

In short it's all about the dollar and how it's effectively backed with Saudi Oil, the Iranian's are proposing an oil trading mechanism based around the Euro. This could be catastrophic for the Dollar.

Interesting analysis even if it does stray into tin-foil hat territory slightly at the end.
 
 
Morpheus
23:42 / 20.01.06
In what respect? because it came from a British diplomat who asked not to be named? Because it shows a reliance on US or israli intelligence? or for some other reason?

The Army Reserve here is running through millions in new purchases. They don't buy and ship with out a purpose...so we the people are being manipulated through the news and media with an array of reasons to go to war with Iran to see which one is going to stick. After more bad poles it is going to likely end up ending in our governments moveing back to plan B...which was always plan A. =Big New Event.

Why can't we name the source for this "new" information as written above. Because they are fishing and waiting for reactions. We did the same thing when decideing how to deal with Laos, China, and Korea in the past.

It always works. Lie always=confusion+fear=reasons for war.

Find out who Iran exports most of thier oil to (China?) and you will see how deep the Rabbit hole goes.

My guess is...05-03-06 ...stocks are falling....duck.

M.D.Y. oracle

P.S. "..But an uniformed people must, in the end become a misinformed people, while they may be told that they are the safest and happiest serfdom to secrecy, they are not a free people."

P.S.S. "In short much of our government's energy is squandered in obtaining a pre-determined public opinion. Officials try by selective information releases to have us accept what they believe is proper; as if fearing the decisions we might make on our own if we had all of the truth."
 
 
unheimlich manoeuvre
10:55 / 25.01.06
invisible al, that link makes a lot of sense.

BBC News 25 Jan 2006
At least eight people were killed and 46 injured in two blasts in the south-western Iranian city of Ahwaz, police said.

...

The government blamed the attacks on the UK, whose forces are just across the border in southern Iraq, but British officials denied involvement.
 
 
sleazenation
16:22 / 25.01.06
Between this and the recent Russian spy story British forces, secret or otherwise have allegedly been quite busy recently...
 
 
nyarlathotep's shoe horn
16:52 / 25.01.06
more canadian troops shipped out to Afghanistan just prior to the election.

wonder if it's to further relieve US troops to mobilize elsewhere.

I don't know if the Canadian government is still pretending that they're "peacekeepers," but that was the line a few months ago.

--not jack
 
 
unheimlich manoeuvre
21:39 / 26.01.06
sleazenation - Between this and the recent Russian spy story British forces, secret or otherwise have allegedly been quite busy recently...

Allegedly.

BBC News. Thu, 26 January 2006
Afghan troop levels to hit 5,700

What's the name of that country between Iraq and Afghanistan?
 
 
Baz Auckland
02:57 / 11.04.06
The New Yorker reported last week that the White House is planning NUCLEAR STRIKES on Iran...

The U.S. administration is stepping up plans for a possible air strike on Iran, despite publicly pushing for a diplomatic solution to a dispute over its nuclear ambitions, according to a report by influential investigative journalist Seymour Hersh.

Hersh's story in the April 17 issue of the New Yorker magazine, mostly citing unidentified current and former officials, says Bush views Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a "potential Adolf Hitler," and sees "regime change" in Tehran as the ultimate goal.

A former senior defense official is cited as saying the planning was based on the belief that a bombing campaign against Iran would humiliate the leadership and lead the Iranian public to overthrow it, adding that he was shocked to hear the strategy.

The report also said the administration is seriously considering using "bunker buster" tactical nuclear weapons against Iran to ensure the destruction of Iran's main centrifuge plant at Natanz. The Pentagon adviser is quoted as saying some senior officers and officials were considering quitting over the plans to use nuclear weapons.


There was another article talking about how if Iran gets a nuclear bomb, they'll nuke Israel... is that likely? Would it really help the Palestinians if the entire area is irradiated for the next century? Or is that seconday? Wouldn't that just open Iran up for getting nuked back?
 
 
Phex: Dorset Doom
04:25 / 11.04.06
Whether they'll nuke Israel...well, if Iran were to develop atomic bombs Israel would be the only target that they could concievably hit- Europe and America would be out of range (remember, Iran recently tested a prototype of a missile that can be fired underwater, bringing their military technology into the early twentieth century , so ICBMs capable of hitting Europe and America are a long way off).
As for the nuclear fallout, well like the effects of most WMDs, fallout is totally blown out of proportion. Take Hiroshima and Nagasaki for instance- both hit by crude early bombs and both still major metropolises. Even the bargain-basement bomb Iran could make would be cleaner than fat-man and little boy, so serious fallout is unlikely.
Whether helping the Palestinian people is secondary to another goal: Iran's leadership does believe in a vast Jewish conspiracy along Protocols of the Elders of Zion lines, which isn't uncommon in the Middle East, so it's not inconcievalbe that they would try to justify any potential genocidal act along religious lines.
Would it result in Iran being nuked by Israel and (most likely) America: most certainly. Israel is nuclear-capable, and has been so for a lot longer than Iran. They may also employ the PATRIOT anti-missile-missiles used to shoot down SCUDs during Gulf War I, so there's a chance that Iran could come off a lot worse in a nuclear showdown.
 
 
nyarlathotep's shoe horn
06:26 / 11.04.06
As for the nuclear fallout, well like the effects of most WMDs, fallout is totally blown out of proportion. Take Hiroshima and Nagasaki for instance- both hit by crude early bombs and both still major metropolises.

that's an interesting take on decades of cancer, birth defects, and blindness not to mention the mental burden of having lived through an apocalypse.

blown out of proportion? They are still metropolitain centres, and there are still people suffering from the effects of the bombings there. I've met a few of them.

This is Plutonium we're talking about here - *the* most toxic thing we've managed to create. If "tactical" nuclear weapons are used against Iran by the US and its "coalition," what will that open up?

what will China do?

--nj
 
 
Spaniel
10:48 / 11.04.06
Very good point, but could you please stop signing your posts? Amazingly, we know who you are.

Aren't Patriot missles a load of old baollocks?
 
  

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