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FinderWolf
15:29 / 03.11.04
uh, what about Diebold, LVX?

CNN has this very interesting breakdown of election results..

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

The most educated (as well as the most UNeducated) voted for Kerry and the wealthiest voted for Bush, among other highlights...
 
 
diz
15:31 / 03.11.04
And by the way, calling folks who voted for Bush stupid is just wrong. I'm not an American and I don't like Bush. Venting bile at the Bush voters goes a long way to reveal why they voted that way.

oh, blow me. i am sick to death of getting lectured by liberals who just think it's just so awful that i'm some liberal elitist from the coast and blah blah blah.

frankly, fuck them. i just don't give a shit anymore. fuck every dumb hick who voted for this fascist. i'm sick to death of being told i need to coddle these people, when the whole problem is that they're coddled too much to begin with. they're allowed to exist in this weird little bubble when everyone kowtows to their primitive religious tribalism and doesn't see fit to trouble them with inconvenient facts.

i am part of a multicultural, progressive, forward-looking America which understands that we live in the fucking world, in the fucking 21st century, and isn't trying to jam that world into some arcane End Times scenario, and i'm proud of that. i don't think their world (out there in Bush Country) has a future, but the fact that they have so much power is fucking up the future for everyone else, so they need to be stopped. they are a fucking cancer that needs to be neutralized if any of us are going to get anywhere. we need to take the fucking gloves off and say that we're not going to let a bunch of uneducated religious fanatics keep the reins of the world's only superpower and run it into the ground.

I am quite saddened to have to agree with this. My boss is one of them. I'm afraid many of my relatives are, too. Not only do these people not know anything, they don't want to know. They won't listen, and might very well become violent if you try to tell them.

the latter part scares me silly. the weird defensive vehemence, which mirrors Bush's own perplexed anger when he's publically challenged. crazy.

For the record, do remember that there are bright blue patches in the midst of all those "red" states.

well, we have to look at things in terms of states for electoral purposes. i think it makes more sense to look at red counties and blue counties. if you break it down to the county level, the picture is a lot sharper. basically, it goes urban=blue, rural=red, suburban varies, with a few prominent exceptions.

I'm in Austin, Texas, sitting two blocks from the big pretty house Bush lived in when he was Governor. Austin is fairly liberal. Austin has lots of college students and hippies. Austin is in Travis County. Travis County elected Kerry.

Unfortunately, Travis County is an anomaly in Texas.

Sigh...


i love Austin, by the way. great city. i've only spent a few days there, but i liked it quite a bit.
 
 
Mister Six, whom all the girls
16:03 / 03.11.04
Yeah, there's this Rep poster on another board saying there's a tradition of reconciliation after elections... right... and that's why Bush Jr couldn't even mount the front steps after his inaugeration for fear of getting pelted on camera.

My call is that the nation has been getting steadily more polarized over the past 4 years and after today, even moreso. Why back down now? It's an even split... we can take em.
 
 
grant
16:08 / 03.11.04
Man to man -- and those SUVs roll over *easy*.
 
 
charrellz
16:24 / 03.11.04
I feel so cheated by the electoral college. I live in Texas and I voted for Kerry. Bush won Texas, and as a resident of Texas, I counted towards a higher number of electoral votes for Bush. So essentially, because I live in a pro-Bush region, my vote was stolen and given to the other side.

How about next election, the 38% liberal population of Texas moves to swing states. Let the next Republican HAVE Texas with a lower number of electoral votes and we liberals push New Mexico or Florida or something in the right direction. Just my theory.

And to sum up: fuck the electoral college, and BUSH LOSES DAMMIT!
 
 
Keith, like a scientist
16:32 / 03.11.04
General stupidity?

I don't think so. I think it's the one-two punch of Bush's faith-based government and the issue of same sex marriage. Those two things galvanized every homophobic Christian behind Bush. They think Kerry is soft on the gays, of course.

Also, regarding Same Sex Marriage amendments...I'm going to allow that some people might have been confused about how to vote on it. Voting no means you don't think we should allow same sex marriage. Voting yes means you are for banning it.

So, I think a lot of people showed up and said to themselves, "I support Same Sex Marriages! I will vote YES! After all, I'm FOR Kerry and voted Yes for Kerry!"

Is that stupidity? Maybe but I would put it down to being confused...

Either way, oh well, America has gotten a lot more conservative in the past 4 years that I would have liked to think...ugh.
 
 
ibis the being
16:44 / 03.11.04
Keith - you're giving those voters WAY too much of the benefit of the doubt. They knew they were voting to ban gay marriage.

diz - HEAR fucking HEAR! I couldn't agree more. And what pisses me off is all those hicks in the middle part of the country and in rural areas voted in Bush to protect "us," meaning them. But they're not going to be hit by terrorists in Bumfuck, Ohio!! Look at how New York voted - look at how Massachusetts voted - look at how DC voted - look at how California voted. WE in the cities and on the coasts have the most to fear from terrorist attacks, and we made the intelligent, informed choice. Hicks in the sticks would like to think "they," the "real" Americans died in the WTC, but those people were New Yorkers, for Christ's sake.

All right, I've got to stop posting, at least in Switchboard. I'm too worked up.
 
 
ibis the being
17:15 / 03.11.04
Those are the people who voted in a ban on gay marriage in 9 of 11 states with that on the ballot - the last time I checked the news.

Just to quickly correct myself, all 11 states voted to ban gay marriage.
 
 
LykeX
17:40 / 03.11.04
Right: homophobic christians. Stupid people. Like I said.
 
 
FinderWolf
18:21 / 03.11.04
various comments from message boards:

This from a dude named Ahbay whose comments are always fun:

--------------------------------------------------------

The GOP built its electoral dominance over 40 years by building a massive, well-funded message, training, and media machine. We started putting ours together last year.
-www.dailykos.com

its disconcerting because beyond being merely totally mystified what he's done RIGHT these last four years, WHAT people see in an administration as criminally corrupt or incompetent, but... he lost three debates. he lost them bad.

and yet: mandate. hell, daschle's gone? jesus. (was daschle really a PROBLEM for the republicans? i never really liked daschle-- i thought he was a fucking pussy, personally, so, you know... good)

imagine him emboldened. imagine what the next four years could be like. wow, oh, wow. the "we can't tell yet" is all cocktease shit. new mexico, iowa, ohio, come on... four years and they congratulated him, they asked for MORE.

i don't get their decision really, but there it is. ahmmmmm, i imagine republicans felt bad in '96 when clinton got reelected. that might've sucked, i suppose, and it must've been hard for them to put up with the next four years of... well, prosperity and peace.

if they could read the memos that say "bin laden determined to strike within the united states" this time, that'd be ... that'd be super.

AND, this from an MSNBC essayist/commentator:

As Mo Udall once put it, the people have spoken, goddamn them.

So let there be no whining when your husband's National Guard obligation leaves him under fire for six extra months, or when Granny and Gramps are eating cat food, or when it become increasingly impossible to meet the economic needs of the middle-class family.

No complaining. None of it.

You wanted this guy. Now you have him, unleashed.

------------------------------

Oh, and I agree that Tom Daschle was annoying and mostly ineffective as a Democratic leader, so I'm not too upset that he's gone.
 
 
Ganesh
18:22 / 03.11.04
The sick, scary thing, for me, is that nothing obviously "went wrong": this time, it's more difficult to point to cheating or apathy as a major factor; on the face of it, the American public turned out in impressive numbers to vote the mass-murderer back in. Perfectly legitimately, if crushingly disappointingly. We're now forced to face the hard reality that America is apparently not a nation jarringly hijacked by a dangerous, isolationist, religiously fundamentalist fuckwit, but a nation which readily granted that dangerous, isolationist, religiously fundamentalist fuckwit the popular vote, gave him a four-year mandate to go on fucking his own country and everyone else's.

We're forced to accept the fact that a majority of Americans are willing to accept the curtailing of womens' rights over their own bodies, routine discrimination of gay people, erosion of individual and international liberties and continued fucking over of the Middle East - the whole neocon package. A majority of Americans are willing to accept the hundreds of thousands of war-dead, and go on uncritically swallowing logic-free justifications based on faith rather than evidence.

This latter aspect, in particular, terrifies me. Previously, one could laugh and roll one's eyes at whatever-percent of Americans believing Iraq sponsored 9/11, or the President carries out God's will, or aliens put probes in their arses. Now, it feels like a majority has got behind his kind of pseudo-reasoning; a majority apparently considers it an acceptable basis for bloody, bloody warfare. It feels like an assault on reality.

I think it's an absolute fucking disaster for humanity.
 
 
Keith, like a scientist
18:25 / 03.11.04
ah, LykeX, point taken.

anyway, I'm from Ohio (Lakewood = highest concentration of the gay population in Cleveland), and I'm at least proud that my county came out in force for Kerry...

Can't speak for those vast tracts of desolation between here and Columbus, though...very disappointing.
 
 
Keith, like a scientist
18:31 / 03.11.04
I know what you mean. Nothing was corrupt or wrong with the election. this was half of the country's choice, apparently...

Totally unreal.

My brothers' National Guard Reserve (yes, Reserve) unit left for Indiana today. They are leaving for Iraq by December.

My brother just wanted to pay for college so my recently separated, now divorced, mother didn't have to pay for it plus his twin's college education as well.

Isn't that sick? My brother wanted to go to college and not have his parents suffer for it. Instead, my entire family is scared to death for him. I went to his mobilization ceremony this past weekend, and it's the first time I've ever cried talking to him, saying goodbye, and telling him how proud I am of him...

And he told us that there are rumours that his tour will be 24 months in total, not the usual 12, not even the recent 18 month tours of the National Guard...

Ugh...sorry, just had to vent a little.
 
 
Yotsuba & Benjamin!
18:43 / 03.11.04
As much as everybody is running around in terror, and this morning I was indeed one of them, it has to be at least a little heartening and politically significant that this "mandate" and "majority" is statistically miniscule (what, like, four points?) and that those in opposition still have a voice in our government. Yes, it's going to be incredibly tough, yes it is absolutely reprehensible that Keith and Keith's family have to go through what it is they're going through (and I send them all my most sincere wishes), but this was not a coup putting in a dictatorship (although it does feel that way very often). There are still democrats in every other branch of government. There are still democratic councilmen and state senators and governors and school board members. There are still Democrats in America. Hell, I'm betting there are even Republicans in all branches who have at least see some benefit in avoiding all out civil war.

My greatest disappointment today is in the presumed weak youth turnout, effectively silencing their own voices in our political system. But this is a democracy, and we all still have a voice. I think the democrats are finally going to have to start playing hardball. And it's about time anyway.
 
 
Sean the frumious Bandersnatch
18:47 / 03.11.04
I know a bit of what you're going through. My stepbrother's in Iraq. Why?
 
 
Ganesh
18:59 / 03.11.04
I think the democrats are finally going to have to start playing hardball. And it's about time anyway.

Problem being, "playing hardball" may mean "dumbing down and going for God" in an attempt to court an electorate which apparently favours "faith" over evidence-based reality, no matter how much global death and misery this involves.

I hope not, but my hope's taking something of a bashing.
 
 
diz
19:15 / 03.11.04
The sick, scary thing, for me, is that nothing obviously "went wrong": this time, it's more difficult to point to cheating or apathy as a major factor; on the face of it, the American public turned out in impressive numbers to vote the mass-murderer back in.

yep. that's my take on it.

the upside is that the other half of the country was motivated to close ranks and mount a fairly impressive turnout to stop the first half. people in Blue America are starting to wake up to the fact that people in Red America are fucking scary and need to be stopped. and, long-term, the prevailing economic trends are pointing towards continued prosperity along the West Coast and in the Northeast, as well as in new-tech hubs like Austin - in other words, in Blue America. Red America, by contrast, is rapidly becoming a decaying wasteland of trailer parks, meth labs, prisons, military bases, and overleveraged farms kept alive by federal subsidies.

long term, there's going to be a struggle, and we're probably going to win. the problematic question is: how much damage is Middle America going to do to the world in its death throes?
 
 
Yotsuba & Benjamin!
19:20 / 03.11.04
Problem being, "playing hardball" may mean "dumbing down and going for God" in an attempt to court an electorate which apparently favours "faith" over evidence-based reality, no matter how much global death and misery this involves.

I totally disagree that that's what they'll be doing in the next four years. In 2008? Quite possibly, to try and gain some ground. But there was a clear policy set out by Kerry that 48% of America stands behind and I hope that elected Democrats realize that and stand behind it, and refuse to waffle. The dissatisfaction and disillusionment is palpable, and I doubt that representatives will miss it. Also, look at Schwarzanegger as just one example of a Republican in office who refuses to piss on his electorate just to court favor with Bush's New Regime. Stem cell research makes sense. He backed it and so did his state and has effectively saved thousands of lives as researchers will undoubtedly be flocking to the state to do their research. As much as Bush has the POTENTIAL to uproot fundamental liberties and decency, so too do the other branches of our government have the power to keep him from doing so. If Kerry had lost by a wider margin, I assure you, I would not be feeling this optimistic. If you look at the final polls, these "Moral" numbers, even Evangelical voters, only make up 1/3rd of our population, tops. Perhaps it is naive of me to believe, but I truly feel that there isn't any possible way for 1/3 of America to completely railroad our democracy. Yes, the 11 Same Sex Marriage bans are not even troubling, they're nauseating, sickening, and downright unamerican (Ron Regan Jr, made the critical note, that Bush's use of the word "sanctity" when referring to CIVIL marriage, is the keystone of how and why this issue is so completely fucked), but, like I said, it's less then 1/3rd of our population base. If you look again at poll numbers about the issue, only 30% of Americans are en toto against Gay Rights. Yes, even that number is ridiculous and way too high, but I really believe that it will never become the prevailing wisdom of American policy. And note that at least one judge has put his career on the line to deem the act as unconstitutional. There is a public official who is playing hardball, who believes in America, and who will have at least some support, even if he doesn't win.

These kinds of battles are historically long and historically ugly, but no one lost the war yesterday. Eventually the flagrantly unamerican basis of most Evangelical policy will meet the unflappable wall of the constitution head on, not to mention the democrats in the House, the Senate, and a few houses down from you. And think about probably one of the youngest new senators, Barack Obama; think about his policies and his popularity. This is the future of America. W2, I really believe, is just the last chapter in a very ugly volume of American history. There will be two primaries in 2008 and think about John McCain running for the Republican nomination. Compare his views with Bush's administration.

I think that "Moral Values" (and most pundits are already pointing towards its vagueness as a huge factor in its popularity) has as much to do with religion as it does with pants shitting, post-9/11 fear. There are also people who truly believe that the invasion in Iraq was a moral imperative, even Kerry supporters who believe that the idea of usurping him was a fundamentally good one, and just that Bush completely botched the job. There is an enormous amount of grey area in these results that could easily stoke the flames of abject terror in the hearts and minds of, you know, rational thinking humans, but the key number here is 30%. Those are the crazy people. Yes, our president is almost certainly one of them, but there are an assload of people with a significant amount of power who are most certainly not.
 
 
diz
19:48 / 03.11.04
Also, look at Schwarzanegger as just one example of a Republican in office who refuses to piss on his electorate just to court favor with Bush's New Regime.

he's able to do that because he's in one of the most liberal states in the union, and one that Republicans write off in Presidential elections.

If you look at the final polls, these "Moral" numbers, even Evangelical voters, only make up 1/3rd of our population, tops.

evangelical conservatives are closer to 40%, all told, and they're disproportionately located in underpopulated states which are overrepresented in the Senate and the Electoral College, except for Texas, which they own, and which represents the electoral counterweight to California. they are the single biggest voting bloc, as well as the most disciplined and one of the best-funded. they own the Republican party and have enough clout in the Senate and Electoral College to block quite a few things and push quite a few more.

Perhaps it is naive of me to believe, but I truly feel that there isn't any possible way for 1/3 of America to completely railroad our democracy.

i think it's naive of you to believe. they're perfectly positioned to manipulate all the flaws in our electoral system, and they know exactly how to play the game. they've also been building a grassroots organization since the 70s, and they have a wildly disproportionate influence in local governments and school boards.

There will be two primaries in 2008 and think about John McCain running for the Republican nomination. Compare his views with Bush's administration.

McCain has already said that he's not running again, and even if he did, he'd get slaughtered in the South like he did last time. same with Rudy Giuliani. moderate Republicans cannot win their party's nomination because the party is owned by the evangelicals, and they will accept no further compromises now that they've tasted power.

Eventually the flagrantly unamerican basis of most Evangelical policy will meet the unflappable wall of the constitution head on

you know what makes the wall of the Constitution so unflappable? the Supreme Court's willingness to enforce it.

Supreme Court Justices are nominated by the President and approved by a simple majority in the Senate. Republicans have 55 Senators, out of which Chaffee, Snowe, Specter, Collins, and arguably the strongly anti-abortion McCain are moderates. at best, that's a 50-50 split, and who casts the tie-breaking vote? Dick Cheney.

three Justices are due to retire within the next four years: conservative Rehnquist, moderate O'Connor, and liberal Stevens. Bush would like to appoint more Justices in the vein of ultra-conservatives Thomas and Scalia to replace them. Scalia's minority opinions have advocated overturning Roe v Wade, affirming state governments' "right" to arrest people for having gay sex in the privacy of their own home, etc.
 
 
ibis the being
20:31 / 03.11.04
But there was a clear policy set out by Kerry that 48% of America stands behind and I hope that elected Democrats realize that and stand behind it, and refuse to waffle.

But you know, now that the election's over I'll say it, even Kerry was too conservative - and played even more conservative toward the end - for a lot of Dems and leftist Independents. Even Kerry had to kowtow to the Religious Right by droning on in the debates about spirituality, which in my mind has NOTHING, nothing to do with government. A lot of people are still saying the Democrats just need to mobilize their liberal base (they way Repubs mobilized their base), but didn't they? Aren't we just outnumbered?

And please, Ganesh, and please, everyone else outside our borders, remember that about 48% still do feel that our country has been hijacked. And with religious fanatics and faith-based politicians still controlling the executive & legislative branches of our government, and soon to rock the judicial branch as well, we are fucking terrified.
 
 
eddie thirteen
20:33 / 03.11.04
The note about stem cell research passing in California has embedded within it the main reason why sense and reason will ultimately overcome the Cletus the Slack-Jawed Yokel dipshit contingent that has reelected Bush -- that stem cell researchers will be flooding Cali to do their work. Guess what comes with them? MONEY. Guess what comes with the guys who voted for Bush? NASCAR memorabilia. Sorry, and I hate to sound like a snob, but it's the fucking truth. The moneyed folks who voted for Bush are old money folks -- people whose cash comes from an investment in tech (oil, for instance) that's increasingly obsolete; I'm willing to bet most of the people who voted for Bush are just poor chumps with a dangerous Jesus addiction. The people on the East and West Coasts who voted Kerry tend to be better-educated, more secular, and have futures in a changing economy in a way that Cletus (and even the Dick Cheneys of America) simply do not. Intelligence will not necessarily ever rule the day, but money definitely will. Bush and his people have made decisions that are not merely horribly wrong in moral terms, but are (and will continue to) cost us MONEY. People want it; under Bush, they don't have it. Sadly, due to shitty education, this rather simple equation is just going to take a little longer for some of us to grasp. Perhaps four more years of extreme poverty and loss of life will wise up the Jesus Christ/Dale Earnhardt clan. Maybe I'm just trying to see the upside here, but I have a feeling that four more years of this asshole will, as others speculated earlier, thoroughly sour even the stupidest parts of America on his ilk, and galvanize those who already have brains.

On the other hand, in terms of self-interest, it may be enough for those of us who live in these poebucker states who did not vote for Bush to move east or west. Though if so I think that learning martial arts and/or firearms use is possibly not the worst idea, given how this kind of thing turned out in the 1860s....
 
 
Keith, like a scientist
03:01 / 04.11.04
(thank you birdie and Sean)

My new (and favorite) theory as to what went wrong is: It's all Creed's fault for making God and Jesus cool amongst college kids. Seriously. Creed, damn you!!!

We all assumed that college kids were going to come out in force for Kerry, and instead they came out for "moral issues" and Bush.

I'm extremely nervous about America's conservative direction today. It's like the country is regressing, becoming more ignorant and more oppressive. First we'll regress back to the 60's and civil rights (except it will be gays this time), then we'll hit the 50's and Blue Scare (name 10 of your liberal friends), then a war, then another war, then we'll finally succeed in enslaving another set of people, likely Middle-Eastern.

I must have been living in some strange wonderland, because the 11 states passing same sex marriage bans just completely shocked me. I guess it's easy to shed your tolerance when you pull that curtain behind you.

Just depressed...Bush - popular vote?

Jeez, Kerry is SMART and COMPASSIONATE and HONORABLE.
 
 
wicker woman
06:49 / 04.11.04
A question for all yew furiners, out there.

I've heard often from a number of sources that, in most other civilized countries on the planet that hold elections, a candidate running for office would get laughed right the hell out if he mentioned that he thought God intended for him to win (or even mentioned God one too many times.) Is this fairly true? And if so, can I stay with you until I establish residency?
 
 
Ganesh
08:11 / 04.11.04
I've heard often from a number of sources that, in most other civilized countries on the planet that hold elections, a candidate running for office would get laughed right the hell out if he mentioned that he thought God intended for him to win (or even mentioned God one too many times.) Is this fairly true?

Fairly true, I'd say, although Tony 'Vicar of Islington' Blair seems to get away with quasi-religious statements based on his own sincere belief (as opposed to actual evidence). He's careful to avoid mention of God, though, and even he would never say God intended him to win - probably because it'd be generally read as evidence of psychological instability.
 
 
Sekhmet
16:10 / 04.11.04
Hmm. Maybe it didn't go so wrong after all. I don't know that I agree with all of this reasoning, but there's definitely food for thought in this article:

He's So Bad, He Might Be Perfect
Under an odd logic, Bush deserves another term. Shouldn't he suffer for his blunders?

Jonathan Chait
October 8, 2004

An editor at the paper [LA times] suggested that I use this week's column to try to make the most honest and persuasive case I could for President Bush's reelection. At first I was skeptical. To say that I consider Bush a "bad" president would be a severe understatement. I think he's bad in a way that redefines my understanding of the word "bad." I used to think U.S. history had many bad presidents. Now, my "bad" category consists entirely of George W. Bush, with every previous president redefined as "good." There's also the fact that, on a personal level, I despise him with the white-hot intensity of a thousand suns. What I'm saying is, advocating Bush is kind of tricky.

But then I thought, what the heck. Why not try it for the sake of intellectual experimentation? After all, lawyers often defend some pretty repugnant clients, right? In keeping with that, I won't attempt to deny that my client has done some awful things. What I'll argue instead is that his very awfulness is the reason he deserves reelection.

Begin with the premise that a second-term Bush administration is unlikely to make things a whole lot worse. First of all, domestically, GOP moderates and deficit hawks have finally begun to wake up and realize that they have to rein in Bush's reckless fiscal policies. At the same time, if John F. Kerry is elected and tries to raise taxes or rein in spending, he'll probably suffer substantial political damage, as Bill Clinton did in 1994. But, unlike Clinton, he'll not enjoy Democratic majorities in both Houses, which means he stands a good chance of failing. That would be the worst of all worlds: Democrats would suffer the political costs of demanding sacrifice from the public, without the corresponding benefit of making the country better.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker has estimated that there's a 75% chance of a major financial crisis within the next five years if we don't reduce our budget deficit. That may be too high, but assume he's right. Whoever holds office would quickly become extremely unpopular, whether he had tried to deal with the deficit or not. If the choice is Bush doing nothing versus Kerry doing nothing, why not let Bush take the blame for his own mess? Why have a Democrat bail him out?

The foreign policy calculus is pretty similar. We don't have enough troops to fight the war we're in, let alone start another one. So there's no reason to fear Bush botching yet another war. And, as much as I desperately want to be wrong about this, the odds of Iraq evolving into a stable democracy look pretty grim right now. If such a scenario ever had any chance of succeeding, it would have required lots more ground troops to keep the peace and allow reconstruction. Now it's probably too late to do anything but salvage something short of total anarchy. If Kerry is president, conservatives will blame him for the failure in Iraq - if only we still had a leader of Bush's unwavering resolve, they'll claim, we would have won the war. If Bush is president, he'll be held accountable for his own bungling of the invasion.

That leaves the usual trump card - social policy. Plenty of my fellow liberals freak out at the thought of Bush appointing two or more Supreme Court justices. But maybe he deserves that too. Hear me out. Right now, Republicans get the best of both worlds. They get tens of millions of social conservatives marching to the polls to vote for them every two years but, because key points of the social conservative agenda never gets enacted, they suffer hardly any political consequences for their positions.

Now, suppose Bush does appoint a couple justices. Maybe they will overturn Roe vs. Wade. If Roe falls, presumably states would decide how to deal with the abortion issue, and a reinvigorated pro-choice, center-left majority would be able to protect abortion rights in most places. In fact, the fear of a backlash would probably cause Bush's justices to chicken out and uphold Roe anyway. Then how would Republicans persuade social conservatives to keep supporting them?

Bush's presidency is a great mass of contradictions. There's an enormous gap between his purported values - fiscal discipline, toughness against terrorists, a commitment to social conservatism - and his true record. Sure, it would be emotionally satisfying to see Bush rejected by the voters once again. But maybe, for this president, defeat is too kind a fate.
 
 
diz
17:09 / 04.11.04
The note about stem cell research passing in California has embedded within it the main reason why sense and reason will ultimately overcome the Cletus the Slack-Jawed Yokel dipshit contingent that has reelected Bush -- that stem cell researchers will be flooding Cali to do their work. Guess what comes with them? MONEY. Guess what comes with the guys who voted for Bush? NASCAR memorabilia. Sorry, and I hate to sound like a snob, but it's the fucking truth. The moneyed folks who voted for Bush are old money folks -- people whose cash comes from an investment in tech (oil, for instance) that's increasingly obsolete; I'm willing to bet most of the people who voted for Bush are just poor chumps with a dangerous Jesus addiction. The people on the East and West Coasts who voted Kerry tend to be better-educated, more secular, and have futures in a changing economy in a way that Cletus (and even the Dick Cheneys of America) simply do not. Intelligence will not necessarily ever rule the day, but money definitely will.

i couldn't agree more. you could look at the work of Richard Florida (The Rise of the Creative Class) and note the strong correlation between cultural liberalism and economic progress. Florida's conclusion, basically, is that in a global economy areas which do not become creative centers and have no real potential for tourism have no future, economically speaking. when the federal budget starts collapsing when the Baby Boomers retire, farm subsidies and other federal spending that keeps the "heartland" alive economically will dry up, and Middle America will become an economic wasteland.

however, it's worth noting that the South once clung to an outmoded economic model (slavery) even as it became obsolete, and they put up quite a fight when we forcibly brought it to a close. this could be ugly.

My new (and favorite) theory as to what went wrong is: It's all Creed's fault for making God and Jesus cool amongst college kids. Seriously. Creed, damn you!!!

We all assumed that college kids were going to come out in force for Kerry, and instead they came out for "moral issues" and Bush.


there is a rising youth conservative movement. while there are still more liberals among young people than among their parents, there are fewer liberals than there were among young people, say, 20 years ago.

and it's not just Creed. Christian rock is the fastest-growing genre in music. Jessica Simpson (an evangelical who very publicly remained a virgin until marriage) has a very popular reality show and her music career is thriving. look at the growth of True Love Waits and "promise rings." look at Kanye West's "Jesus Walks."

Now, suppose Bush does appoint a couple justices. Maybe they will overturn Roe vs. Wade. If Roe falls, presumably states would decide how to deal with the abortion issue, and a reinvigorated pro-choice, center-left majority would be able to protect abortion rights in most places. In fact, the fear of a backlash would probably cause Bush's justices to chicken out and uphold Roe anyway. Then how would Republicans persuade social conservatives to keep supporting them?

i agree with the first two parts. the upside of a second term for Bush is that he will reap the reward for all the damage he did to the budget and foreign affairs in his first term. however, this part i don't see happening.

simply put, Chait doesn't get it. he assumes that if (or, maybe more realistically, when) Roe v Wade is struck down, there will be a sudden groundswell of grassroots support for abortion rights which will preserve them in most of the country at the state level.

the problem is that he's counting on this invisible phantom support to materialize and save the day, but there's no reason to think that. the cavalry, frankly, isn't coming. if Roe v Wade gets struck down and it becomes a state-by-state issue, here are the states which will probably end up preserving abortion rights:

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
Illinois
California
Washington
Hawai'i

probably also:

New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Ohio
Oregon
Delaware
Maryland
Minnesota
Wisconsin

i would be shocked if any of the other states kept it legal, however, and i would expect to see fairly stringent restrictions in many cases.

and, well, the nightmare scenario is that the Bush-appointed SC extends full Constitutional protections to "unborn US citizens", in which case the lights just go out.
 
 
Aertho
17:29 / 04.11.04
I have about 10 billion unborn US citizens swimming in my balls. Granted, they're only half-human, but they prefer to be called "chromosomally-challenged". I'm faced with an interesting situation: Do I rape every woman I see, hoping to impregnate and therefore be a pro-lifer to one of a billion spermatazoa. The others I eject -death by vagina. Or do I masturbate and avoid the "rape imperative" and become a mass murderer -death by kleenex?

Perhaps the answer is to become castrated at the age of pubescent development, harvest the sperm, and impregnate them all with extracted ova from female donors. Thus, no blame or responsibility for the male! Or should I say "steer"?
 
 
Nobody's girl
17:40 / 04.11.04
Another tragic consequence of Roe v Wade being overturned is women dying from botched back street abortions. Absolutely horrific scenario within which we can find only one consolation- perhaps if the American public regularly hear about young girls bleeding to death in horrific circumstances they'll start seeing the benefits of a pro-choice stance.
 
 
Chiropteran
17:49 / 04.11.04
perhaps if the American public regularly hear about young girls bleeding to death in horrific circumstances they'll start seeing the benefits of a pro-choice stance.

Or further "evidence" that abortion is a barbaric and brutal practice. Either way, there are young girls bleeding to death.

Meanwhile, Arlen Specter (who stands a good, though not definite, chance of heading the Judiciary Committee) has just made a public statement warning Bush to be cautious in his appointments:

"When you talk about judges who would change the right of a woman to choose, overturn Roe v. Wade, I think that is unlikely," Specter said, referring to the landmark 1973 Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion.

"The president is well aware of what happened, when a number of his nominees were sent up, with the filibuster," Specter added, referring to Senate Democrats' success over the past four years in blocking the confirmation of many of Bush's conservative judicial picks. "... And I would expect the president to be mindful of the considerations which I am mentioning."


[full article]

Some commentators have speculated that this is just Specter flexing a bit and testing the limits of his authority, but it does suggest that a kind of limiting factor exists within the Republican party.

~L
 
 
diz
18:02 / 04.11.04
Some commentators have speculated that this is just Specter flexing a bit and testing the limits of his authority, but it does suggest that a kind of limiting factor exists within the Republican party.

true enough, for now. however, they went after Specter hard in the Republican primary, and he barely held on. the party is looking to purge the moderates, and i would expect Snowe and Chafee to be similarly challenged in '06, if the latter hasn't left the party on his own by then, that is.
 
 
Sekhmet
18:11 / 04.11.04
This might be of interest; a U.S. map showing every state on a scale from red (100%R) to blue (100%D). Considering how close the margin was in many places, there's a lot of PURPLE in there...
 
 
Hieronymus
18:13 / 04.11.04
Here's my take on it.

Yesterday I limped around the entire day under a cloud of pure unadulterated rage and the lowest despair I've ever felt. It was like having my heart torn my chest and having it stomped on by a mob. How could this sonuvabitch have been given the greenlight to continue his machinations for another four years?

And then after a good night's sleep and lot of chestbeating over how and why and what's wrong with me and what's wrong with my beliefs, I realized why George Bush won.

Because since Reagan, the largest party representing progressive issues has been castrated and dismembered by apology, shame and cowardice. We needed this. We needed to have our arguments ripped apart by these logically dubious con-men and shysters because, to be quite honest, the arguments have been far too accomodating and far less inspired. I voted for Kerry. But watching him in the debates and in his stump speeches, I saw a man who felt like he had to apologize for having a progressive stance. Dean was booted from the candidancy because too many people thought Kerry was the 'safest bet'. And for too long the Democratic Party has been doing exactly that. Playing it politically safe.

Enough is enough. The GOP used to cry endlessly after their defeats in 92 and in 96. And the fat was trimmed then.

Now it's our turn. To let go of the damn apologies and be proud of what we believe. To push the issue we care about harder and without fear or apprehension. The Democratic Party now has a golden opportunity to get leaner and meaner as a result of this thing. Or be forced to be a relic of the past.
 
 
ibis the being
20:04 / 04.11.04
I'm afraid Chait's just proved why a person generally shouldn't write something he doesn't really believe in. His article if off from the very start - Begin with the premise that a second-term Bush administration is unlikely to make things a whole lot worse.

Uh, not really. If that premise were true, millions of Democrats wouldn't be so shell-shocked and devastated by the election results. It wasn't just that we wanted our man to win for the sake of winning - we're afraid of Bush.

And the President just today said that he feels his reelection earned him "capital," and that he "intend[s] to spend that capital." Those are ominous words from a man whom many have speculated was saving his really big moves for a second term.

To argue that further debt, further war, and further oppression are just not practical is to have missed the last four years. He went into Iraq with no reason, no plan, and too few troops. The amount of debt were in already is not exactly "practical." And in the past he expressly stated that he did not care about popular opinion, that even in the face of reelection - there's very little left to stop him from doing whatever he wants.
 
 
Locust No longer
20:06 / 04.11.04
Well, I'm not about to start apologizing to anyone because I voted for Kerry. But I'm infinitely depressed that not only did I have to, but that he still didn't fucking win. I sat in my car as the verdict was dropped and just cried. I couldn't stop. Another four years of this shit. I'm out of words and I feel slightly numb two days after the fact. I have nothing really to add but I feel absolutely deafened by the country I live in. This ridiculous and horrifying bullshit that the whole world accepts in all its leaders -- it's just unbelievable. I'm really tired of living under the influence of others who are, by most standards, slightly more intelligent than the mentally handicapped. One of my friends got beat up for making fun of Bush. I got my nose broken from a homophobic fuckwad because I didn't take his shit. These are the people who voted for Bush. These are the obscene bastards that run our goddamn lives. I'm just so tired. I've been fighting these assholes my whole life and just when I think that it may change just slightly I get thrown back down. I don't want anymore blood on my hands. I don't want to be a part of country that loves war and hates freedom.

Alright, my self absorbed rant is now done.
 
 
Issaiah Saysir
20:37 / 04.11.04
>>If Kerry backed down that quickly, we should be glad he is not in power. Not that Bush is a great leader. Or a leader at all, come think of it.
What a revolting development.
 
  

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