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Superflu?

 
  

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invisible_al
13:46 / 17.03.03
I've just read these reports about the World Health Organisation issuing a global alert over Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. A 'mystery illness' that started in China and Hong Kong with over 150 cases worldwide.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2856163.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2856735.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2856447.stm

It's transmitted by droplets of body fluids - produced by sneezing or coughing and is fairly contagious, dozens of hospital staff have caught it from patients.

Now we're no where near The Stand with Captain Trip's or the 1918 Pandemic but people are drawing parellels with that last one already. According to the BBC the WHO and other health organisations have been preparing for something big for a number of years and they hope that with improved medical care anything similar would have much lower fatality rate.

Right what follows is some venting of the paranoid kind, in the aftermath of any war in Iraq there is likely to be a collapse of the government infrastructure and without a good deal of aid Dysentry and Cholora will pop up, now add in this bug. Could make things very interesting in the post war clean up.

Closer to the source of the virus, North Korea where a good proportion of the population are suffering from malnutrition and therfore weakend immune systems. If the virus spreads through China it would be nigh on impossible to stop its spread into North Korea. Cue possible collapse of North Korea and then add spice with nuclear weapons.

And for the final coup de gras, if it spreads to Thailand and other South East asian countries currently suffering from an epidemic of Aids, which once again which weakens the immune system. That's the start of a global pandemic right there.

Ok I'll take the cloak and the scythe off now but I'd like to know why I'm wrong just to keep me from worrying.
 
 
Baz Auckland
14:14 / 17.03.03
I'm optimistically believing that the media's just making a big deal out of nothing... God, I hope. There's been 10 cases already in Canada, with 1 death. They seem to have treated the other 9 successfully though, so that's one up on the flu of 1918.
 
 
Hieronymus
14:54 / 17.03.03
I've an artist friend in the Phillipines who has this. His girlfriend wrote me to let me know he was in the hospital and not doing well at all. Seems to pull absolutely no punches in cutting a person at the knees. I just hope he's okay.
 
 
pomegranate
16:53 / 17.03.03
I'm sorry to hear about yr friend, Dysfunctional. I hope he gets well right quick.
Is this whole epidemic related to the overuse of antibiotics, anyone think?
This kinda stuff always makes me think of that line in Jurassic Park "life finds a way." Only it's like, death finds a way--we are overpopulating the world, isn't it just a matter of time before something happens to cut into our numbers?
 
 
Nematode
20:52 / 17.03.03
I'm afraid some thing of this ilk has been on the cards for some time. We've been quite lucky really......well apart from AIDS, antibiotic resistant TB and VRSA which fortunately hasn't taken hold in the hospitals just yet. We are storing up problems for ourselves on the over prescription of antibiotics front, and have been for some time. The other problem is the speed and extent of global travel. This thing has moved very fast. Fortuantely as far as we know it is'nt a real killer, it kills a percentage of those that contract it and that is about it. However it sounds extraordinarily debilitating which is better than death but not that great all the same, especially if you are imunocompromised or starving. The thing about travel is that there are little packets of DNA sitting causing inoccuous complaints in monkeys in the Congo [for instance] that have the capacity to cause a global pandemic. And everywhere is acessible now so it is literally only a matter of time before we fuck up unless this stuff is studied thoroughly and carefully on a large scale which unfortuantely isn't the case. The other cheerful aspect of this is that increased ultraviolet exposure causes mutations at a micro level which just makes the whole thing even more precarious. AIDS sufferers as I understand it make a fantastic petri dish for mutation in micro organisims and virii [never did suss the plural on that one there's a dictionry not five feet away but I can't be arsed]. Also I observe that the population around me is almost constantly ill, there is a subtle level of immune deficiency that comes from caning it, eating crap not taking any exercise, environmental pollution and most importantly stress that is leaving people with flus and colds that last for months that have burrowed deep into the immune system and just keep causing trouble popping up and making you feel crap. SO fuck this SDI inspired shit about us being hit by meteor, there are other things out there that are far more likely to be a problem if we're not really, really careful i.e we aren't too cavalier about clear cutting diverse unexplored jungle, we study this stuff, we watch and limit travel, antibiotic use in animal husbandry is banned, we just give up on xenotransplantion as too risky and we are, as individuals, as proactive in our own health care as possible, otherwise........
 
 
Cailín
21:49 / 17.03.03
I was in my doctor's office this morning, and her e-mail chime kept going off, a new meesage or two every three minutes or so. "My god," said I, "you do get a lot of e-mail." She tells me that she usually doesn't get all that much, but because of this strain of flu virus, there are new bulletins coming in from all over the world about treatment, advice, new outbreaks, etc. She did mention the 1917-1918 virus as a worst case scenario, and seemed a little worried overall. If she's worried, I'm worried. But I don't know that there's anything I can do to avoid it, since I live in one of the most densely populated areas of Toronto, and turning complete hermit isn't an option. Not that it would do much good if I could - with shared ventilation in my apartment, if my neighbours get it, I may get it, since these viruses only seem to get tougher over time. Funny, we get these warnings about this type of thing, but all we can do is try to limit our exposure to other people, and that may very well fail us. praying mantis, I think you may be onto something. Maybe nature is looking to thin us out.
 
 
Thjatsi
03:53 / 18.03.03
It is interesting to note that a worldwide outbreak of influenza occurs every one hundred years or so, and wipes out a significant portion of the earth's population. Luckily, if this were influenza someone would have figured it out by now.

Is this whole epidemic related to the overuse of antibiotics, anyone think?

I think this is rather unlikely. These cases are occurring in a region of the globe that is limited in access to antibiotics compared to the western world. In addition, antibiotics are only relevant to bacteria. If this turns out to be caused by a virus, we can be certain that antibiotic resistance does not play a role. I should also point out that antibiotic resistance is unlikely to give bacteria a special advantage in an antibiotic-free environment.

...increased ultraviolet exposure causes mutations at a micro level which just makes the whole thing even more precarious.

This is incorrect. If a few more mutations are beneficial to bacteria and viruses on an evolutionary level, a few simple alterations to the DNA repair systems is a quicker and more reliable method than using UV light.

For example, in the wild, E. coli is found with a disabled mismatch repair system. However, in the laboratory this system is active. Why? Because having more mutations is beneficial in a variable environment, but not in a petri dish. Microorganisms don't have to wait for UV light to increase in order to begin mutating.

Also I observe that the population around me is almost constantly ill...

Where do you live? I'm assuming somewhere in the developed world, since you have access to a computer. As bad as public health seems right now, it was a hell of a lot worse eighty-five years ago, and is currently not too spiffy over in Kenya.

...we aren't too cavalier about clear cutting diverse unexplored jungle...

This is actually an area I'm not too clear on. I have heard numerous times that this sort of activity is potentially responsible for all sorts of nastiness. However, I haven't heard of any proven examples or a potential mechanism yet. Could someone please expand on this?

we watch and limit travel

I don't disagree that travel limitations will prevent the spread of infectious disease. However, the draconian measures necessary to actually have an impact on pandemics are unenforceable. Besides, even if you did find a way to do this, it would be an economic disaster. This would decrease funding for research on aforementioned infectious diseases.

we just give up on xenotransplantion as too risky

I should point out that this means that a lot of people will most likely die due to a lack of organ donors.

...these viruses only seem to get tougher over time...

I wasn't aware that this trend existed. Please give examples.

Maybe nature is looking to thin us out.

This is a common theme among the previous threads, and it seems to assume that nature possesses both sentience and desire. However, last time I checked the biological community hasn't performed a few decades of intensive research and decided to upgrade the gaia hypothesis to a theory. With this in mind, I think these notions can be dismissed as having absolutely no scientific grounding.

However, there is a small piece of truth in this proposition. Infectious diseases are akin to a forest fire, in that they require fuel to grow and expand. Increasing the population of the planet is a lot like generating more kindling.

However, the developed world has begun to move towards zero population growth, and it is my hope that the developing world will begin to follow our lead over the next century.
 
 
invisible_al
09:24 / 18.03.03
Sorry to hear that as well Dysfunctional hope your mate gets better soon. If it helps a lot of these cases are just that, cases not deaths, I've only heard of one actual fatality in a hospital. It's one of the things that makes the WHO feel moderately confident in the face of a Pandemic is that modern medical care should be able to cope with it where it's available.

Oh just on the overuse of antibiotics front, I hear that Singapore is actually the worst place in the world because you can get antibotics over the counter. And from this study it's the low dosages that are a problem, when they have some antibotics but not enough to complete a course providing a breeding ground for antibiotic resistant diseases.

But once again taking off the cloak and scythe these dangers are well known about and the WHO is doing it's darndest to make sure it doesn't have to bring out the Pandemic plans. It's throwing resources at China and the Far East, all depends on how their industrial revolution goes really.
 
 
The Return Of Rothkoid
10:20 / 18.03.03
There's reportedly been two suspected cases here, in Australia - both travellers who've been back from Asia for a couple of days. Some airlines - the SMH mentioned Air New Zealand - are refusing travel to people who look like they have cold/flu symptoms.
 
 
Cherry Bomb
10:47 / 18.03.03
It is a little scary. I guess, on the one hand I think, well yes the ratio of deaths doesn't seem that high. But on the other, why are they making such a big deal out of it?
 
 
Nematode
11:29 / 18.03.03


Microorganisms don't have to wait for UV light to increase in order to begin mutating.

Micro-organisms as I understand it, do mutate more rapidly when exposed to UV radiation sure they do without it but I can't see how an environmental catalyst such as increased radioactivity won't mean an increased level of random mutation, or do they just mutate like bastards anyway.

Where do you live?

I live in Brighton In the UK. No dispute that public health is better here than in Kenya or a hundred years ago for that matter. Antibiotics have been very useful to this society as have public sanitation measures so now we are without cholera, typhus, and endemic amoebic dysentary which is great....However what is interesting is that arrival of other things: ME which can be very very nasty and utterly screw up your life and for which ther is no reliable cure, masses of Irritable bowel syndrome which again can be absolute misery, crohns disease and ulcerative colitis. Not to mention the weird risisng asthma statistics, and a steadily incresing likelihood of getting cancer expected to rise to 100% for men in the next few years[!]
The other thing that is interesting is that people are getting coughs and colds and hanging onto them for months, literally. Now this year was a bad year for such things but it was the same last year, weeks of rumbling ill health an inability to get over something. I think what I'm getting at here is that although we have been relieved of some of the real nasties the population is far form healthy. They are in western medical terms probably fit if a little depressed but I'm not sure that western medicine is really very good on the subtleties of the immune system which is probably why we have no cure for cancer or aids What disturbs me is the fact that a subtle but recognisable level peoples immune systems are simply not up to it. Now why that is is anybodies guess but as a healthcare professional that is what I observe over and again. So think I that if something a bit nasty turned up that as a town Brighton wouldn't do that well. Now in the developing world people tend to be a bit tougher. Dunno about africa but the Chinese and the Indians blatantly more energy, tougher populations.

The clear cutting thing means roads going into jungles and improved links with the microbiological world. Also interestingly there is a bit of a problem with bush meat consumption. The Ebola outbreak in the late 90's was probably caused by this.


Travel restrictions: fuck global travel sucks at pretty much every level carbon emissions,golf, enviro fuck up the lot but I take your point

On the xenotransplantion issue. Pursue other means.
 
 
grant
18:37 / 18.03.03
...we aren't too cavalier about clear cutting diverse unexplored jungle...

This is actually an area I'm not too clear on. I have heard numerous times that this sort of activity is potentially responsible for all sorts of nastiness. However, I haven't heard of any proven examples or a potential mechanism yet. Could someone please expand on this?



Yeah, basically: Forest gets thinned to make way for road, isolated population of germ-carrying monkeys suddenly has road going through front yard, hungry trucker pulls over for the night, shoots monkey for dinner, then does a lot of sneezing on his route from Nairobi to Gaborone (or wherever). That's the basic scheme. For something like AIDS, substitute "is bitten by" for "shoots for dinner" and "has sex with small-town prostitutes" for "sneezing".
I don't know how accurate it is as a model, but it does have a certain reasonable something to it.
 
 
Nematode
20:46 / 18.03.03
Here's a thought. Imagine if you will you were a government which was aware of a global pandemic flu in the offing.
Right. Now what would you do about it? I can think of three options.
1]Tell all, make a clean breast of it, say what it is, how many it's going to kill etc. Then watch your society implode in a way that threatens an even greater death toll.
2]Keep really quiet for as long as humanly possible so that everyone watches people around them going blue and dying and 'Eastenders' is still on. Everything goes ok until people sense an information vacuum and panic [see above].
3]Say there's something a bit nasty around but not to worry 'cos it isn't that infectious and doesn't kill that many people. Reckon you cold spin that one out far longer, perhaps....
 
 
8===>Q: alyn
23:44 / 18.03.03
Just to veer off in another totally paranoid direction, could this be a generated meme? The Guys In Charge right now are famous for exploiting End Times rhetoric. We've got war looming and now plague. "Famine" to follow? Not to denigrate this, it sounds very nasty, but does it really rate such a high profile?
 
 
Thjatsi
01:13 / 19.03.03
...on the overuse of antibiotics front, I hear that Singapore is actually the worst place in the world because you can get antibiotics over the counter...and from this study it's the low dosages that are a problem...

Both of these are excellent points. However, I would remind you that antibiotic resistance is unlikely to be a factor here. Even if this problem does turn out to be caused by bacteria, antibiotic resistance isn't an issue until they begin treatments. Antibiotic resistance is great for resisting antibiotics, but it doesn't create super-bacteria.

Micro-organisms as I understand it, do mutate more rapidly when exposed to UV radiation sure they do without it but I can't see how an environmental catalyst such as increased radioactivity won't mean an increased level of random mutation, or do they just mutate like bastards anyway.

It is true that ultraviolet light causes mutations in all living organisms. It is also true that these mutations can be beneficial for evolution. My argument is that any selection pressure to benefit from mutations will quickly lead to a decrease in the organism's ability to repair DNA. Basically, bacteria are already at the level of optimal mutations regardless of their environments. However, this happens a lot faster in the "create more mutations" process than in the "create less mutations" process. In other words, it's easier to screw a complex system up than it is to fix it.

...a steadily increasing likelihood of getting cancer expected to rise to 100% for men in the next few years...

That's primarily due to the fact that we've wiped out most of the things that kill you before you get cancer.

I live in Brighton In the UK.

Odd, maybe if you guys ate more like us Americans, you wouldn't be so frail and sick. Mmmm, food.

What disturbs me is the fact that a subtle but recognisable level peoples immune systems are simply not up to it....Now in the developing world people tend to be a bit tougher.

All joking aside, I'm really going to want to see some evidence on this before I start accepting it. The people all around me couldn't be healthier, and all the data I've seen regarding the developing world indicates that their health is no where near optimal.

The clear cutting thing means roads going into jungles and improved links with the microbiological world.

The microbiological world is the entire planet, including the bacteria that live on and in us. It's not like all the bacteria are stalking around in the jungle, looking for poor unsuspecting humans to mob and attack.

On the xenotransplantion issue. Pursue other means.

What happens if people die because these other means don't turn out to be viable?

Forest gets thinned to make way for road, isolated population of germ-carrying monkeys suddenly has road going through front yard, hungry trucker pulls over for the night, shoots monkey for dinner, then does a lot of sneezing on his route from Nairobi to Gaborone (or wherever).

Are there any proven instances of this occurring? And, is this really a more likely scenario than say, this:



Say there's something a bit nasty around but not to worry 'cos it isn't that infectious and doesn't kill that many people. Reckon you could spin that one out far longer, perhaps...

This sort of conspiracy is unlikely to work for very long. You basically have to find every health care provider who can discover what the problem is and find a way to shut them up. Let's consider three things:

1) The people who choose to work in science and medicine are, as a general rule, almost fanatically concerned with preserving and improving human life. Are you going to attempt to bribe someone who, on average, could be making twice as much with a business degree? Threatening families could work, but it is quite likely to make people unpredictable, and you have to find someone who is both trustworthy and willing to do it.

2) You have to make your own plans for minimizing the damage that will occur in your country. This means preparing health care providers with the necessary resources and direction. How the hell are you going to do this without arousing a little bit of suspision?

3) The tests for a lot of these diseases really aren't that difficult to perform.

The Guys In Charge right now are famous for exploiting End Times rhetoric.

Who are these Guys in Charge?
 
 
8===>Q: alyn
13:42 / 19.03.03
Jesus and Zarathustra, obviously.
 
 
grant
14:44 / 19.03.03

Well, truckers are pretty well known disease vectors....

From the article: "Oh, yes, the truckers!" said Dr. O. E. Omolo, the provincial medical officer in Mombasa, when I expressed a desire to travel with some of them in order to learn about their lives. "They are true museums of disease! Chancroid, gonorrhea, syphilis, herpes, aids—well, the list goes on and on!"

Like I said, it's a model. They help spread germs widely and quickly, while less technologically advanced vectors (like bats, or chimpanzees) just sort of act as reservoirs - they tend not to travel much, and don't come in contact with humans if they can help it.

I can't find any cases with concrete proof that this has actually happened, but people do actually eat monkeys and chimps, and do work in conditions where they get exposed to bat guano, and infectious viruses have been found in chimps and bats (and, possibly, monkeys).

Weren't chickens the source of the last big flu from Asia?
Wait a minute... Yeah, this is the case.

And here's the problem:
Many forms of flu and common colds originate in Asia and, in particular, in China. There, people often live in close proximity to livestock. Ducks, pigs, horses, chickens and other farm animals sometimes pass to a person what-had-previously-been a virus absent in humans. With dense populations in the region, it does not take long for the new disease to spread through Asia and then the world.
 
 
grant
14:52 / 19.03.03
Just for kicks, some monkey recipes.

Excerpt: Monkey bushmeat is commonly consumed in tropical Africa. Monkey meat is prepared fresh in rural areas. It is also smoked to preserve it and allow it to be sent to market in the cities. A common sight along rural roads is smoked whole monkeys for sale, tails tied to heads to make carrying handles.

and

Wodi soa ensa, fye wo ensa. (Oji) : When you eat a monkey's hand, look at your (own) hand. N.B. -- When you enjoy yourself at the expense of others, remember that you are liable to the same misfortune.

Mmmmm.

At least one species of monkey, the red colobus, was hunted to extinction, in part because logging roads gave hunters greater access to their previously unreachable habitat.

The problems stem from “the double whammy of habitat loss and laissez-faire hunting,” according to John Terborgh, a professor of environmental science at Duke University. “Miss Waldron’s red colobus monkey was eaten. The last ones went into someone’s pot.”
 
 
Nematode
19:15 / 19.03.03
antibiotic resistance is unlikely to be a factor here. Even if this problem does turn out to be caused by bacteria, antibiotic resistance isn't an issue until they begin treatments

Sorry have to take issue with that. Essentailly antibiotics are like giving you immune system speed while in combat. The trouble is that they knacker other parts of you system whilst being specifically very useful. I used them for the first time in about ten years recently when I had a severe infection and I was stunned at how powerful, nay magical, they are. I can speak with first hand experience on both this [they saved my life] and the fact that they also screw about with the bodies balance. Is is unreasonable to say that the use of antibiotics in the meat industry and overprescription are causing this sort of effect at a subtle level in the mass of the population? Is it again unreasonable to specualte in this direction in realtion to the increased prevalence of autoimmuune diseases in our society? Please tell me what you think.
My feeling on this is that obviously antibiotics do not have any bearing on the activities of a virus, however in terms of our capacity to fight something like that off, that is more questionable.

That's primarily due to the fact that we've wiped out most of the things that kill you before you get cancer.


A comforting perspective, but alas erroneous.

Cheeky! the food in this country is lousy but we ain't as fat as you guys....yet. Interesting fact: I can't sadly remember the exact percentage of extra breast tissue in the average american male between the 1950's and the 1980's, 30% springs to mind........
As far as I understand it there is another epidemic that will surely kill as effectively as any flu but far more slowly and that is obesity.

All joking aside, I'm really going to want to see some evidence on this before I start accepting it. The people all around me couldn't be healthier, and all the data I've seen regarding the developing world indicates that their health is no where near optimal.


Can't helo on this one as thoroughly as I'd like but 1 in 6 kids has asthma in the uk which is.....interesting. What's more interesting is that if I'm right it is virtually unknown in China as is ME and IBS. My view is that yuo can't have life without death. That disease is actually an aspect of the life process and that there will always be something that gets you whether it's an auto immune disease or bihazia [not a good way to go......] In the west because of rapid technological advances public health measures and antibiotics, we have stolen the march on disease but this situation is now changing back to one of greater balance which obviously has it's down side but has good points too. In this centuary we are almost certain to see the return of TB and a whole host of antibiotic resistant bacteria and doubtless a lot of other odd new things really because that's the way it is. Current snapshot comparisons between say the population of Delhi and London would unquestionably conclude that people are on average healthier in London. I think looking at somewhat more affluent citizens in Delhi might produce a different picture. I also think that it's important to look at this as a changing picture we are moving into being a far less healthy society, my older patients are much tougher than my younger patients. Oh and our mental health is in a very, very bad way, [mind you with weather like this......]

The microbiological world is the entire planet, including the bacteria that live on and in us. It's not like all the bacteria are stalking around in the jungle, looking for poor unsuspecting humans to mob and attack.

So are you then saying that there aren't areas that have
1] a greater density of microbial acton
2] that it isn't an important issue immune system-wise running into utterly novel microbes.......like say the native americans and smallpox?

What happens if people die because these other means don't turn out to be viable?

Stem cell research is looking good. It might be sensible to watch the way you live your life and look after yourself rather than running your body ragged and then expecting surgical intervention to sort you out 'cos it rarely does in a way that's satisfactory. I'm tempted to say tough on this one there's only a tiny fraction of the world that can afford transplants but I'spos if it was me or my loved ones I wouldn't take that view. as with so much in hypertechnology, is it worth the risk?
Forest gets thinned to make way for road, isolated population of germ-carrying monkeys suddenly has road going through front yard, hungry trucker pulls over for the night, shoots monkey for dinner, then does a lot of sneezing on his route from Nairobi to Gaborone (or wherever).

Are there any proven instances of this occurring?


Mayibout Gabon 1996. bush meat.


This sort of conspiracy is unlikely to work for very long. You basically have to find every health care provider who can discover what the problem is and find a way to shut them up. Let's consider three things:


I was being a bit provocative with this post. That said you don't really have to silence everyone at an individual level you simply don't allow it into the mass media, in this country it's called a D notice. We'll see a lot of it in the coming weeks.
 
 
grant
20:07 / 19.03.03
Oh. Well, here's the Mayibout case. Seems like yeah, bushmeat has been documented as a disease vector. Mayibout is apparently remote and doesn't have any "accessible" roads (whatever that means), so the virus didn't spread too far before the infected folks died.
 
 
Jack Fear
15:27 / 20.03.03
Here's an interesting development...

Six of the SARS cases have been traced to a single point of origin—the Hotel Metropole, in Hong Kong.
 
 
grant
17:31 / 20.03.03
It's a paramyxovirus, New Scientist reports.

In the same family as mumps, measles and flu.

"Everyone will be relieved it's not from a completely unknown taxonomic group," says Yvonne Cossart, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Sydney, Australia. "But the antivirals we have at our disposal will not be useful against it."



I'm starting to wonder if this topic wouldn't be better suited for the Laboratory, with the discussion of disease vectors and whatnot.
 
 
Nematode
18:51 / 22.03.03
Forget this flu. I suspect that this is a considerably more worrying developement, especially as it becomes more resistant to treatment. I could see this one literally devastating modern life. Check out 'vrsa' on a search engine. This is all going so wrong.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/030306/12/dutxw.html

[Apologies for the awkwardness of this link, you'll just have to type it.]
 
 
grant
18:39 / 25.03.03

From Nature:
Identity of mystery pneumonia bug sharpens
Questions raised over readiness for lethal SARS epidemic.


Excerpt:
Immunologists stress that it is too early to conclude that a paramyxovirus definitely causes the lung illness - the virus could be a coincidental infection. To be sure, the collaborating labs must find tell-tale viral DNA in all patients and show that their blood contains specific antibodies against the virus.

If the labs' suspicions are correct, there are few drugs and no vaccine to fight this pathogen, warns Christopher Broder, who studies paramyxoviruses at the Uniformed Services University in Bethesda, Maryland. One drug, ribavirin, could be tried; this is used to treat the paramyxovirus that causes respiratory syncitial virus infection in children.

New strains of paramyxovirus have killed humans twice before, after jumping from animals. In 1994, two stable workers died in Australia having contracted a horse strain called the Hendra virus. And in 1998, 105 Malaysian pig farmers died from the related Nipah virus. In both cases, the animals were first infected by fruit bats.

Events such as these have prompted some experts to ask why the latest outbreak wasn't better anticipated. "If we had our act together we could have seen it coming," says Donald Burke, who studies the spread of infectious diseases at John's Hopkins University in Baltimore.

 
 
grant
19:04 / 09.04.03
OK, I've heard tales that there are cases in Toronto and, just now, in South Africa. Anyone from anywhere near there care to share information?
 
 
Jack Fear
19:21 / 09.04.03
NPR ran a story on some of the rather draconian methods being used to try to contains SARS in Toronto. There's a link for a RealAudio clip about two-thirds of the way down this page.
 
 
moriarty
20:31 / 09.04.03
There's been a bit of a panic in Ontario for the past couple weeks. Media coverage has been surprisingly light in comparison to public concern. I've heard far more talk around town about SARS than I have about the war. In Toronto, they are selling out of those little masks doctors wear. There are over 200 cases across Canada, with 10 dead in Ontario.
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
00:33 / 10.04.03
Regarding SARS' fatality rate- I'm pretty sure that I read yesterday it's about 4%.
 
 
grant
14:48 / 10.04.03
There've been a couple cases down here in Florida, but I don't think too many people are all worried. I'm not, anyway.

According to this recent report from the BBC, the WHO are checking out the South African SARS report, saying it'd be the first case on that continent.

The story also says: Studies now strongly suggest that a new strain of Corona virus, which normally causes the common cold, could be to blame.

I hope that Corona is a paramyxovirus.

The WHO list(confirmed cases only):
China 1,280 cases (53 deaths)
Hong Kong 970 (27)
Singapore 118 (9)
Vietnam 62 (4)
Canada 91 (10)
Thailand 7 (2)
Malaysia 1 (1)


One of the Chinese deaths was an American teacher:
The Chinese authorities have been attacked amid claims that they have "covered up" additional Sars cases in Beijing and elsewhere.

On Thursday, friends of a US citizen who died from Sars claimed he was wheeled, already dead, into an ambulance and sent from Beijing to Hong Kong because China's authorities did not want to report that another foreigner had died of the virus in the city.


The *most* cheerful bit, though, is this:

The mystery illness which has claimed more than 100 lives is probably in Asia to stay, according to an infectious disease expert.
Dr Jim Hughes, from the US Centers for Disease Control, said that he believed that Sars - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - could not now be eradicated in the Far East.

...He said: "I think we have to assume that the virus is in Asia to stay.

"In terms of its introduction into North America, whether it is here to stay I think remains to be seen but I think we should assume that it may well be."



Not that I'm inclined to believe what the CDC announces, but still.
 
 
grant
14:59 / 10.04.03
Oh, and here's some more cheerful updates from the WHO, as of 9 April 03:


Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 2722 cases, with 106 deaths have been reported from 16 countries. This represents an increase of 51 cases and 3 deaths when compared with yesterday.

New cases were reported in Canada (3), China (1), Hong Kong SAR (42), Singapore (5), and the United States of America (1). The single case reported in Australia has been removed from the list. Deaths were reported in Hong Kong (2) and Singapore (1).


According to their graphs, there was a peak at the end of March which has subsided.
 
 
Hero_Zero
04:50 / 11.04.03
And if you want to look from the completly paranoid schizophrenic P.O.V. check out Dr. Leonard G. Horowitz. I just saw a post on a "new age" board. And read some of it and skipped the middle. Basically it says "they" are deliberatly poisoning us blah blah blah...now sure what to make of it. Here's the links if you like.

http://www.tetrahedron.org/

He seems on the FAR left side of things if you ask me. And what kind of doctor I didnt care enough to read through all the drivvel. And a tad too christian/endtimes for me as well.

See also:

http://www.c-cure.com
http://www.tetraassoc.com
http://www.originofaids.com
http://www.deathintheair.com
http://www.allaboutsmallpox.com
http://www.healingcelebrations.com
http://www.americanreddoublecross.com
http://www.healthyworlddistributing.com
http://www.prophecyandpreparedness.com

As for my beliefs Im not quite sure yet I think the news has alot to blame for the panic. Same is to be said for the upcoming West Nile Virus. Just another reason to shoot your telly.
 
 
Hero_Zero
04:51 / 11.04.03
Sorry still not sure how to post links that re direct you in such a way.
 
 
Hero_Zero
05:06 / 11.04.03
Here's the full article...long and boring but if your interested.

http://www.healingcelebrations.com./SARS.htm

Swear this is the last Ill post on this
 
 
gingerbop
20:47 / 11.04.03
I reakon its soo over hyped when we've got so many other majoy killers, and what, a couple hundred people have caught this. In the world. Grrr bloody feels like iv got it tho. Well it is caused by the same virus as the common cold..
 
 
tom-karika nukes it from orbit
23:46 / 16.04.03
SARS Identified

And the WHO thinks it probably came from animals, as it is not closely related to known human viruses.

Can I say some off-topic stuff about antibiotic resistance?

Some studies (which I would link to but am too lazy to search for) have shown that resistance to antibiotics has little or nothing to do with the actual volume of drugs prescribed, but how thoroughly they are taken. So when the doctor hands out the pennicillin and says 'Take these for five days', It is likely that the patient will feel much better after only three days. They stop taking the drugs, but the bacteria are not eliminated. Their numbers are merely reduced to a level where they cause no discernible effect.

After the drugs are stopped, the low, non-lethal (to bacteria) levels of antibiotics in the body are just about right for the bacteria to take it in and synthesise an immunity of some sort. It is now that any bacteria which have developed antibiotic resistance can start to grow.

In all cases of antibiotic resistance, the resistance has been at the expense of other bacterial abilities, more often than not the ability to survive outside the body. This means that antibiotic resistant bacteria are usually less contagious than their normal counterparts.

Some doctors will still prescribe antiboitics for viral infections. The logic is that the immune system is constantly having to fight off bacteria which are endemic in the body. The antibiotics take care of these, so leaving the immune system to fight the virus.
 
  

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