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Third Gulf War... and the inevitability thereof...

 
  

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nutella23
16:56 / 07.09.02
I have this really awful feeling that war with Iraq is inevitable at this point, regardless of what the rest of the world or the American congress may have to say about the matter. I bring this up because I live near a major air force base and have noticed extremely heavy air traffic in the past month or so: lots of enormous military cargo planes and transports, air refuelling planes, and attack aircraft on maueuvers (B-52's, A-10's, F-16's). The last time we had such heavy air traffic of this sort was just before Kosovo. Normally, the planes hardly ever come overhead, now its every day, several times a day. I often get woken up by screaming A-10's flying over my building in the early morning hours. (They fly lower than other jets because they're ground attack craft and are VERY loud).

I had heard something in the news recently about how we're sending all this military hardware over to Kuwait for "wargames exercises", but that when said exercises are over, we're going to leave everything in place (as if Kuwait were a great big arms depot/storage facility, which I suppose it now is). Between building up such open displays of military might on his border and more aggressive air patrols/bombings in the "no-fly zones", how much longer is it going to be before Saddam acts out of self-defence, which will no doubt be interpreted as aggression and Bush's smoking gun excuse for invasion? Its like poking a bear with a stick, then using his rage as an excuse to shoot him. "See, he WAS a threat to us!"

Fucking geopolitics. Equally repellant is the way this comes up just before midterm elections in the house and senate. What timing on Bush and Cheney's part. Ironically, its the generals who are protesting. Perhaps because they know something we don't?
 
 
sleazenation
20:59 / 07.09.02
"look, its coming straight at us"

*bang*
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
00:32 / 08.09.02
I am not satisfied with the evidence so far but if a good case is made lets do it. would be foolish to let Saddam make the first move.

And any moment now the Merrimac will sail up to the White House and start shelling.
 
 
sleazenation
09:41 / 08.09.02
...and sink...
 
 
Harold Washington died for you
01:40 / 09.09.02
Don't be stupid. If someone is going to attack you, if you know they are going to attack you, it is best to attack them first.

If the secret shadowgovernment cabal knows Iraq is going to drop a nuke on Tel Aviv or release sarin in the NY subway I fully expect and demand they strike first.
 
 
Harold Washington died for you
01:43 / 09.09.02
Well one of the UN weapons inspectors says Iraq does not have the ability to do any of that. I am very happy to hear this and the next gulf war can be avoided if Iraq lets the inspectors back in.

The fact that they will not let the inspectors in says to me that they have something to hide.
 
 
sleazenation
06:51 / 09.09.02
So having "something to hide" is now a cover all justification for the wholesale invasion and of a soverign nation?
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
08:53 / 09.09.02
I heard something on the radio this morning to the effect that Iraq has no nuclear capability but COULD have within a few months if they got hold of all the right equipment and the people to build it.

Hmmm. I think If I got hold of all the right equipment and the people to build it, I COULD have nuclear capability within a few months.

What the fuck?
 
 
Kit-Cat Club
11:32 / 09.09.02
Morocco - I believe that the US is also unwilling to allow its military facilities to be inspected by UN officials...
 
 
I, Libertine
11:33 / 09.09.02

"Islamicist"?
 
 
Lurid Archive
11:56 / 09.09.02
Hmmm. I think If I got hold of all the right equipment and the people to build it, I COULD have nuclear capability within a few months.

But Stoatie, I thought the story was that Iraq has already assembled all the right people and equipment and was only lacking "fissile material". Uranium and such like. Getting to that stage does require a concerted effort and is a matter for concern.

BTW, at the weekend I heard a rumour from a friend of a friend of a friend of an acquaintance of Blair that My Mate Tony is actually against a war in Iraq. If this source is to be believed, Blair really is trying to be a close friend to Bush so as to have a good deal of influence when the time comes. So Blair is trying to stop the war by supporting it...OK, it sounded more convincing at the time.
 
 
Our Lady of The Two Towers
14:53 / 09.09.02
Morocco Mole Well one of the UN weapons inspectors says Iraq does not have the ability to do any of that. I am very happy to hear this and the next gulf war can be avoided if Iraq lets the inspectors back in.

The fact that they will not let the inspectors in says to me that they have something to hide.


Well, certainly Saddam likes to keep the world guessing by saying 'yes, no, yes' until everyone's confused, but the US Government has let it be known that it's going to invade Iraq regardless, so why SHOULD they let weapons inspectors in? And the last time they did, the weapons inspectors were spies, so from an Internal Security point of view, why should the Iraqi version of Richard Ashcroft let them in?
 
 
Jack The Bodiless
14:59 / 09.09.02
...The Iraqi version of Richard Ashcroft... I am Jack's boggling mind...
 
 
grant
15:36 / 09.09.02
John Ashcroft.
 
 
tango88
15:49 / 09.09.02
What the ex-arms inspector also said:

"Based upon my experience as a weapons inspector from 1991 to 1998, while we had serious concerns about unaccounted aspects of Iraq's weapons program, we did ascertain a 90 [percent] to 95 percent level of disarmament that included all of the production equipment and means of production used by Iraq to produce these weapons.

So if Iraq has weapons today, like President Bush says, clearly they would have had to reconstitute these capabilities since December 1998...

" Let's keep in mind that the reason why inspectors are out of Iraq isn't because Iraq kicked them out, but rather they were ordered out by the United States after the United States manipulated the inspection process to create a confrontation that led to Operation Desert Fox and then used intelligence information gathered by inspectors to target Iraqi government sites, including the security of Saddam Hussein...

"The inspectors were able to do their task of disarming Iraq without any obstruction by Iraq.

Let's keep in mind that from 1994 to 1998, the weapons inspectors carried out ongoing monitoring inspections of the totality of Iraq's industrial infrastructure. And at no time did Iraq obstruct this work.

The obstruction only came when weapons inspectors sought to gain access to sites that Iraq deemed to be sensitive. And many of these sites -- including intelligence facilities, security facilities, Saddam Hussein's palaces -- had nothing whatsoever to do with weapons of mass destruction. "

Source: http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/meast/09/08/ritter.cnna/index.html

CNN went on to infer that this man was unpatriotic.

I had dinner with an exiled Iraqi family last week. We talked a bit about the situation and the mother began to cry -worried about her family in Baghdad. It made me realise just how fucked these people are going to be.
 
 
Harold Washington died for you
16:27 / 09.09.02
No reason to inspect the US weapons program. Everyone knows we have nukes. Saddam used poison gas on his own people, I am a bit more worried about him.

Saddam will do anything to stay in power. Saddam must realize that he could stay in power forever if he let the UN inspectors back. Saddam refuses to let the inspectors back. Even for a crazy dictator this seems illogical. That or he has weapons of mass destruction he does not want the world to know about.
 
 
nutella23
18:28 / 09.09.02
Something tells me Bush will do anything to stay in power as well. Just a theory mind you.

I think people tend to forget that Saddam has been around for a while, like since 1968 or something. He didn't just spring out of nowhere to menace Kuwait in 1990. And truth be told, we've incited the Kurds to rebellion a couple of times now, though we've also duped them as well (in 1973, during the October War between the Arabs and Israelis). Check out William Blum's "The CIA, A Forgotten History" for the full account of how we led the Kurds on and then betrayed them at the last minute. I only hope after the Gulf War that the Kurds have the common sense to ignore us when we come around looking for their support yet again.

I also think that when people start going on about how its "all about oil" are missing the point. Oil plays a part in our interest in that part of the world, but its a bit more encompassing than that. It has alot more to do with spheres of influence, strategic corridors, shipping lanes, new venture capital investments (someone has to rebuild Iraq, after all) and new markets. Look at how the Balkans broke up: they fractured along lines relating to various spheres of influence , sometimes along ethnic lines, sometimes along religious lines, but always corresponding to some source of outside interest in the region (US, German/EU, Russian). The hot-spots of the Middle East are no less fractious. Iraq and Israel have internal divisions that are being exploited to maximum gain by outside interests who wish to obtain a substantial foothold in the region. I won't go as far as to say that the US and the EU are or are going to be waging "war by proxy" in the region, as it appears that the US, with the absence of the Cold War, is eschewing its traditional covert warfare methods and replacing them with direct military involvement in the global hot spots that center around areas corresponding to desired spheres of influence as mentioned above. Mind you, this is simply based on my own observation of global events. I don't pretend to have a monopoly on the truth and I distrust the left as much as I distrust the right. I'm interested in the truth, not political grandstanding, sloganeering or pissing matches. When someone like Anthony Zinni or Colin Powell start voicing concern about invading Iraq, I think we ought to listen. Not because I happen to agree with them on their political views, but because I recognize that they are experts in their field. Politcians exorrting us to war should be questioned regardless of who they are or what the reasons are for going to war. Had we done that more often, history would have taken quite a different turn. I mean, how many times have we gone to war, only to find out years later that our reasons for doing so were tenuous at best, and utter lies at worst. Remember the Gulf of Tonkin incident? How about the "sinking" of the USS Maine before the Spanish-American war? And now the illusive nuclear facility in Iraq. Will we find out after the bombings have ceased that it was an infant formula factory like the one we bombed in Sudan in 1998? ("Well, we THOUGHT it was a chemical weapons factory...Ooops.")

Just my 2 cents. No doubt the flames will fly, better get that asbestos suit ready.
 
 
Our Lady of The Two Towers
11:58 / 10.09.02
Jack The Bodiless ...The Iraqi version of Richard Ashcroft... I am Jack's boggling mind...
grant John Ashcroft.

You mean you didn't hear? The Iraqi Verve split up last year after musical differences and their lead singer got a job in the Ministry of the Interior...
Oh all right damn you, John Ashcroft then.

Tony Blair seems too close to the White House to make a decision now, he'll go with whatever they want as per usual. Although I haven't been able to check this for myself yet, he appears to be invoking reports that say "actually we don't see any proof that Saddam has any weapons at all" as proof that Saddam has weapons, so I think it will all depend on whether Dubya believes he has more or less to loose by going to war.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
13:23 / 10.09.02
Akchterly, the IISS report says he does have weapons, just not many of 'em, and that he's definitely trying for more, but that Nukes will be beyond him unless someone sells him the makings. Which, no doubt, many would, if they could just figure out how to do so without getting caught. On the other hand, wouldn't you try to get hold of WMD if the US was lining up against you?

The much-heralded government dossier will be the one to watch. It ought to have up-to-date info, but whether they'll include that is an open question.
 
 
Hieronymus
13:47 / 10.09.02
I have a question for those in the historic know. What was the UN reactions (or just the US for that matter) regarding Pakistan and India's nuclear capability? Was it this reactionary in nature at the time or did Western civ come to terms with having to treat those two countries as equals all of a sudden?
 
 
sleazenation
14:44 / 10.09.02
as this report for the time shows The UN responded with its usual resolve and was uncharicteristically successful - only, I suspect because the goal for both sides was to establish their own credible nuclear detterants.

Pakistan only became a nuclear power 4 years ago. I suspect that today its test would not have been tolerated.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
15:01 / 10.09.02
There wasn't exactly huge rejoicing at the time.
 
 
sleazenation
15:11 / 10.09.02
Nick - but do you think Pakistan would have been allowed to carry on its testing as it did in 1998 or that if a similar situation arose today - The US administration would not be prosecuting for immediate regeme change?
 
 
sleazenation
15:12 / 10.09.02
Of course, four years ago Pakistan had the problem of having an elected leader...
 
 
Regrettable Juvenilia
16:04 / 10.09.02
No reason to inspect the US weapons program. Everyone knows we have nukes. Saddam used poison gas on his own people, I am a bit more worried about him.

So... the fact that everyone knows that the American military/government has nukes, and has used them in the past to kill staggering numbers of civilians just to make a point, should be of no concern to anyone?
 
  

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