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over/underestimating the terrorists

Ronald Thomas Clontle

15:50 / 06.11.01

I'm beginning to wonder if the terrorists cells are even capable of pulling of another attack (in any way, shape or form) as effective as the one on September 11th.

What do you think?

I imagine that the cells that currently exist in the US are very likely at each others throats, that personal politics and dynamics are at play...for example, think about what the power structure inside of these cells may be like...there is very likely a lot of infighting and personal ambitions, there are likely people very paranoid about the others using them as potential cannon fodder without them knowing about it in advance, they may all have very different ideas about what their plans and tactics may be. They may be paranoid and terrified of being found out before they make their moves. They may be frustrated by any number of setbacks...they may be afraid that people within the cells are working as double-agents. Christ, some of them may suddenly have second thoughts about this whole terrorism thing to begin with.

There are just so many variables that stand of the way of executing even simple acts of terrorism...

[ 06-11-2001: Message edited by: Flux = Rad ]

19:34 / 06.11.01

I think its far safer to overestimate the terrorists. Underestimating them will only cost lives. What worries me is that these types of terrorists have an incredible amount of patience and resolve. I fear that after we finish whatever it is we're doing in Afghanistan and the anthrax person(s) are caught, American will relax and become lazy. If terrorists decide to strike now it will be more difficult for them to achieve their goals (though successful or not they will add to the general unease of the American public). If they decide to wait they will have a better chance of being successful (and all the fear people are experiancing now will come rushing back). I really don't think any of them are worried about double agents, they're motivated by religious beliefs and, in all liklyhood, have all known eachother for a long time. It doesn't take much to blow shit up or kill people and you don't need an entire cell to cause mass destruction. Look at McVeigh- one guy with a truck full of shit.

Ronald Thomas Clontle

19:49 / 06.11.01

but the longer they wait, the greater risk they have of being found out, infiltrated, and destroyed. I think that if they don't start acting now, they will get weaker and weaker and weaker.

Also, they can count out the possibility of getting new recruits from overseas, they are pretty much stuck with whoever it is they have in the Americas.

What if there was only one really solid working cell, and they've expended all of their manpower/brainpower on Sept 11th?

Think about how poorly executed the whole Anthrax thing has been. It suggests the distinct possibility that we're left only with a bunch of bumbling buffoons with a second rate bioweapon.

[ 06-11-2001: Message edited by: Flux = Rad ]

19:58 / 06.11.01

Also, they can count out the possibility of getting new recruits from overseas, they are pretty much stuck with whoever it is they have in the Americas.

Not if they get new people they already know and/or have worked with before.

What if there was only one really solid working cell, and they've expended all of their manpower/brainpower on Sept 11th?

If thats true (and I hope it is) we'll never have any way of knowing it. If there is another solid cell we woln't know until they are broken up or they blow something up.

Think about how poorly executed the whole Anthrax thing has been.

Thats disputable. The letters keep coming and the people responsible haven't been caught. And if they get their shit together and send out something other than anthrax...

20:15 / 06.11.01

US law enforcement agencies have detained over 1000 people already for suspected links to the success attacks on 11 Sep, whether innocent, guilty, or background checks.

I kinda doubt most (if only a few) will be linked to violent,criminal conspiracies to attack the American public for political reasons. That's probably overestimation, but it only took 19 to kill 5,000 people.

I pray a lot for non-violent, cultural exchange to solve this east-west rift, however I will default to typical fear-based thinking - If their is a 1-2% chance of me or mine being killed or horribly maimed for political reasons I support anyway, but not supported my leaders, then I'll buy insurance every time.

Is insurance worth killing other people? - No
Is insurance worth deterring other people from sponsoring genius-level mass-murderers? - My knees are jerking yes, but I pray about it.

STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK

07:08 / 07.11.01

I kind of get the impression the whole anthrax thing is not as inefficient as it may seem... the intent seems not to be to cause further massive loss of life, but to create fear. And much as everyone's putting on a brave face, it's obviously got us all rattled.
Although Blair and Bush aren't helping (surprise surprise) by their constant "oh, he may also have nukes etc... although we have no evidence to suggest he actually DOES" noises which don't actually offer any helpful advice, but just get everyone more riled and gung-ho about the whole thing.
I wouldn't be surprised if they said "we suspect he may have monsters... yes, big dinosaurs that live under the sea and are the result of atomic mutation... just thought we'd let you know".

07:17 / 07.11.01

well obviously it does Them good to have a boogeyman. although, black john, your comment has me equating bin laden with a doctor who baddie - and i don't know if that makes him more or less scary....

STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK

07:58 / 07.11.01

I think the whole Doctor Who villain thing is appropriate (I, for example, always prefer to refer to Mrs Thatcher as Baroness Thatcher... a cartoon/pantomime enemy is always easier to hate than a human being).
Honestly, Blair & Bush have to be made up now... for the first time since WW2, they have cartoon Bad Guys (TM) to fight... I mean, Saddam Hussein was just a moustachioed gangster... now, a supremely calm-looking, charismatic "Hassan i Sabbah" figure who wants to destroy civilisation, and a one-eyed mullah... God, the cunts must be in heaven.

The Return Of Rothkoid

10:14 / 07.11.01

quote:Originally posted by Flux = Rad:
but the longer they wait, the greater risk they have of being found out, infiltrated, and destroyed. I think that if they don't start acting now, they will get weaker and weaker and weaker.
Well, not entirely - assuming that bin Laden was behind the WTC attacks on the 11th, he'd waited - there'd been a gap of what, eight years or something, since the last bomb attack he masterminded there? Waiting and waiting for a sense of security to return - and admittedly, it'll take a fucking long time now - and then coming out again; surely that'd allow for ebbs in follower enthusiasm? It seems, based on the lack of followups (personally, I think the anthrax could be opportunistic others) that biding their time doesn't bother the terrorists (or their following) much.

Our Lady of The Two Towers

14:09 / 07.11.01

Well considering that guy was able to board a plane with a stun gun and stuff on Monday, looks like the people in charge of airport security haven't quite yet managed to get the hang of their jobs.