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'Empty Targets' - Is It Possible?

 
 
Frances Farmer
00:58 / 08.10.01
It's been proposed by a military analyst on CNN that it's a possibility no casualities have yet been reported because the strikes targeted sites intelligence believed to be empty. The idea behind this, of course, is that Bush wants a show, to "Smoke them out of their holes,".

Is this possible? Has anyone heard reports estimating Afghani casualties? I know that one of their religious leaders had his home targeted, but was not hurt.

Of course, we can judge that any publicized military action is, to some extent, a propaganda event. The question, then, is to what extent?

Anybody know?
 
 
Mystery Gypt
01:06 / 08.10.01
of course, the Taliban claim there were a LOT of casualties: http://my.aol.com/news/news_story.psp?type=1&cat=0600&id=0110072216511776

and we'll claim there were not. funny kind of war wen the attacker wants to say they didnt get anyone!
 
 
Ronald Thomas Clontle
02:28 / 08.10.01
At some point early this evening, I saw MSNBC report that they estimate that somewhere between 100 and 200 people died in the bombings.


Which is a far cry from the 7000 or so people who died in the WTC, not to mention the Pentagon...
 
 
Disco is My Class War
03:46 / 08.10.01
Flux, you know you have my support and stuff, but how the hell can you find it in yourself to compare the death tolls like there is some kind of justice in this ridiculous war? More people will get killed. More innocent civilians will get killed. For reasons of power, control, money and aggression.
 
 
Sharkgrin
03:47 / 08.10.01
I beleive that a lot of the Al-Qaeda targets (wayout in the mountains) - empty desert training ranges and caves - were either covered with thousands of proximity bomblets (meant to blow-up when Abdul walks/drives near them) or hit by bunker-penetrating bombs (remember the precision stuff from the Gulf War?).
Also, if the Taliban's headquarters and communications sites were targeted, it will take days or even weeks for their leadership to get their messages to the outside world.
 
 
Naked Flame
10:15 / 08.10.01
Things that explode have a hard time being precise.

This is the argument used by Americans donating to the IRA... 'it's not a war against people, it's a war against property!'
 
 
mondo a-go-go
11:05 / 08.10.01
kooky in facetious mode:
maybe they're trying to decimate the mountainous terrain so that it'll be easier to fight a battle without the taliban "burrowing", as dubya put it yesterday....
 
 
bio k9
11:19 / 08.10.01
I think what this means is the targets were Taliban tanks, planes, abandoned strongholds ect. The planes were apparently old Russian pieces of crap but we got rid of them just in case. The airfield itself was supposedly left untouched so it could be used by flights delivering humanitarian aid in the future. From all reports, which I admit could be total crap, the first strikes were well planned out. Suppose we woln't know till daylight.
 
 
Ronald Thomas Clontle
11:32 / 08.10.01
quote:Originally posted by Rosa d'Ruckus:
Flux, you know you have my support and stuff, but how the hell can you find it in yourself to compare the death tolls like there is some kind of justice in this ridiculous war?


Well, first, I don't believe that crushing terrorist operations is in any way ridiculous. Second, I was awkwardly trying to point out that if that figure was true, we are far more merciful than they are.
 
 
bio k9
11:46 / 08.10.01
The bottom of the news channel I was just watching said Taliban claims 20 civilians were killed. Less than two dozen.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
11:54 / 08.10.01
quote:Originally posted by Rosa d'Ruckus:
Flux, you know you have my support and stuff, but how the hell can you find it in yourself to compare the death tolls like there is some kind of justice in this ridiculous war? More people will get killed. More innocent civilians will get killed. For reasons of power, control, money and aggression.


I don't have a great deal of faith in a military approach to this mess. On the other hand I also don't really understand you - do you feel this is a colonial war? An imperial one?

It's true that US vs. Afghanistan is ludicrous. It's also true that, failing the indomitable soldier, a weapon I for one am not looking forward to, there's no perfect surgery in war. I'm not entirely convinced of the good of not responding with force to this situation, either.

So help me out, here - what do you think is going on, and how do you see it?
 
 
Ethan Hawke
12:19 / 08.10.01
Unfortunately, I think the best outcome (for the Afghan people, the region, and the world)to be hoped for at the end of the current military action would be something colonialist in nature, ie, an exercise in what is denigrated as "nation-building" by both the right and left. Installing a government based on Western democratic,humanist principles would be preferable to allowing the Northern Alliance or other indigenuous factions to assume control, as they are likely to be as the Taliban.

What I am proposing is of course paternalistic and oppressive in its own way but seems the best course between what is practical and what is desirable.
 
 
Ronald Thomas Clontle
13:16 / 08.10.01
I wholeheartedly believe that recreating Afghanistan (and really, most of the middle east) in the image of western civilization is in the best interests of nearly everyone on the face of the earth. Those people need to be brought into the 21st century, they can't go on living in a constant state of civil unrest, famine, drought, and horrible repression of their women. In terms of human rights, in terms of them having some kind of dignified existence, it's something that needs to be done.

Say what you will about imperialism, but if it has the potential of vastly improving their quality of life, I don't see why it should be denigrated.

Cultures die. It happens.
 
 
Ierne
13:18 / 08.10.01
This is the argument used by Americans donating to the IRA... – Naked Flame
Oo-ee!

That almost appealed to my black humour this morning, here in NYC, where not only are we still grieving for our dead, but we are also succumbing to various mysterious bronchial/lung/throat/sinus troubles that may kill even more. (Everyone I know is ill, how are other New Yorkers on the board faring?)

I really don't think bombing Afghanistan will help New York recover. And I'm not quite convinced that molding Afghanistan in the image of Euro-American standards will help matters, either. Isn't that part of what the anti-globilization movement is working against?

[ 08-10-2001: Message edited by: Ierne ]
 
 
Naked Flame
14:02 / 08.10.01
quote: I'm not quite convinced that molding Afghanistan in the image of Euro-American standards will help matters, either. Isn't that part of what the anti-globilization movement is working against?


Good point.

However, one thing I love about living in the West is my freedom to not get blown up by a landmine whilst walking the dog. Not that I have a dog.

I'd agree that Afghanistan should ultimately be left to self-determination, but I don't think we're talking about nation-building here, just repairing the damage the cold war inflicted on the place. War reparations rather than sweatshops.
 
 
Frances Farmer
14:13 / 08.10.01
I know this is going to sound ludicrous, but...

...Since we've got all this money, and all .. Why don't we just build them some shit and let them decide how to govern it? I think that would be pretty much universally appreciated. I mean, nothing gaudy or ridiculous - no monuments. Just hospitals with modern equipment, telecommunications infrastructure, agricultural infrastructure... Stuff like that. Why not? I mean, really, what needs to happen here, is, Bush needs to demonstrate to these people - and everybody else - that he's not out to fuck them over. The only way I figure he could accomplish that would be a no-questions-asked, no-payback, philanthropic action to demonstrate the goodwill of the U.S. towards the citizenry of Afghanistan.

It might sound naive, but I think if we could refrain from injecting stupid cultural memetic signatures, like, oh, I dunno .. The crucifix, maybe - just maybe - they wouldn't see us the classical dominators.

There's my wet dream of the week.
 
 
betty woo
15:33 / 08.10.01
International aide agencies built a soccer stadium in Kabul. The Taleban use it for executions. The limited radio and television infrastructure is forbidden from communicating anything other than official announcements and religious information. Women aren't able to benefit from the hospitals that already exist because they aren't permitted to allow a male doctor to examine them, and female doctors aren't allowed to practice.

It's a nice dream, but the U.S. has dumped plenty of money into the infrastructure of various countries over the decades, most of which has gone to benefit the ruling elite, rather than the general populace.
 
 
Frances Farmer
16:05 / 08.10.01
quote:Originally posted by betty woo:
International aide agencies built a soccer stadium in Kabul. The Taleban use it for executions. The limited radio and television infrastructure is forbidden from communicating anything other than official announcements and religious information. Women aren't able to benefit from the hospitals that already exist because they aren't permitted to allow a male doctor to examine them, and female doctors aren't allowed to practice.

It's a nice dream, but the U.S. has dumped plenty of money into the infrastructure of various countries over the decades, most of which has gone to benefit the ruling elite, rather than the general populace.


You're absolutely correct. Unfortunately, I'm unstoppably idealist, and can't help but conjecture.

Betty, I'd be curious - would you be willing to divulge a bit on your opinions as to the recent U.S. action and the probablistic futures resulting? I understand you like to keep your cards close, but I'd be very interested in hearing your thoughts.
 
 
Ronald Thomas Clontle
17:20 / 08.10.01
quote:Originally posted by betty woo:
Women aren't able to benefit from the hospitals that already exist because they aren't permitted to allow a male doctor to examine them, and female doctors aren't allowed to practice.


This wasn't always true though. As recent as twenty years ago, women in Afghanistan once held a great deal of public power, and were a substantial among the number of doctors in the country. There is potential to reverse this...

I think my comments earlier in this thread come off as very naive...I'd like to clarify that while I think westernization and 'nation building' in the middle east could ideally be a wonderful thing for the entire world, it is very unlikely to occur, mostly because the US has no real successful experience in these sort of things, and the UK/Western Europe isn't exactly up for the job either... not to mention that it could very well only make matters worse.
 
 
sirius
20:35 / 08.10.01
Targeting "targets believed to be empty"
sounds way too much like the Americans who make too much of the fact that one airplane crashed into the wing of the Pentagon "closed for renovation" with "recently installed blast resistant bulkheads on each end" CNN, CNBC, CBS news quotes.
Perhaps it is evidence of psychic perception.
After all there should have been "thirty thousand people in the WTC at that time of day" Manager of WTC on CBS, (who had taken the day off to register his son in school).
There were an "estimated twenty thousand in the WTC" CNBC four days later.
A psychologist years back noticed that crashed airplanes, busses, and trains, often have larger than normal cancellations before departure. He theorized that when a spike in cancellations occurs, the flight should be considered "at risk". Did anyone else have bad dreams and nightmares about airplane crashes? Many New Yorkers did, many others also, me among them. I forbade my daughter to fly last August. She drove cross country instead.
There was "a spike in insider trading on Monday, September 10th, in NY, London and Germany" CNBC.
Do sucessful stock traders get "hunches"? You betcha they do.
The "terrorists" were trained by the CIA back when they were called "mujahadeen freedom fighters".
Is it so hard to believe that they may still have friends and contacts within
'The Company' who may still be helping them?
Possibly warning "an old friend" who warns others.
 
 
betty woo
22:58 / 08.10.01
I don't really have an opinion at the moment about the international coalition's actions - there's not enough information available for me to assess what's really happening and why certain actions are being taken. Developing an opinion at this stage seems premature for me.

As for a post-bombing response: infrastructure is a great idea, I just think it's one level too high for what the region really needs. A great many of the conditions in Afghanistan - political and social - are indirectly related to environmental scarcity, and I think that working to repair the land itself might be the best place to start. It doesn't impose Western cultural mores of any kind on the Afghan people - in fact, it frees them to return, if they like, to a traditional lifestyle that is presently difficult to impossible given the damage done by decades of conflict in the region.

Part of this thinking comes from a project I was briefly involved with during university, a study of environmental change and accute conflict. The research that was started back in 90-91 predicted this sort of fall-out, as in this quote from the Project on Environment, Population and Security:

"Conflicts generated in part by environmental scarcity can have significant indirect effects on the international community.

Environmental scarcity can contribute to diffuse, persistent, subnational violence, such as ethnic clashes and insurgencies. In coming decades, the incidence of such violence will probably increase as environmental scarcities worsen in some parts of the developing world. This subnational violence will not be as conspicuous or dramatic as interstate resource wars, but it may have serious repercussions for the security interests of both the developed and developing worlds.

Civil violence within states can affect external trade relations, cause refugee flows, and produce humanitarian disasters that call upon the military and financial resources of developed countries and international organizations. Moreover, states destabilized by environmental stress may fragment as they become enfeebled and peripheral regions are seized by renegade authorities and warlords. States might avoid fragmentation by becoming more authoritarian, intolerant of opposition, and militarized. Such regimes, however, sometimes abuse human rights and try to divert attention from domestic grievances by threatening neighboring states."
 
 
netbanshee
23:43 / 08.10.01
...I have serious issues concerning anyone stepping into a culture and saying that "this is the way you should go" or otherwise force them to it. You might as well obliterate them...as the other option isn't very good either. It really shows a lack of understanding...

This stance doesn't allow the fact that one should use soccer stadiums for public executions, but it says...why the hell did they get a stadium in the first place. Isn't there something they could better use and could only be harnessed in a beneficial way?

Diplomatic relations and working on the systems that allow people to remain in bondage is what should be happening right now...help reconfigure outdated or inconsiderate narratives...I mean, where does it say women should be treated this way? What and whose policies are keeping these people so poor? Are they currently benefitting from the outside world? Doesn't it occur to people that you want everyone to have as much opportunity as one can muster? Who really wants to follow a religion, ideology, or whatever that allows this...and since some people are trapped in this, push the government to reform, make people aware of the possibilities and allow incentives...

...and as far as empty targets...can you really believe this? I mean...it makes sense to remove potential threats to your forces (in military thinking) but after that, there's not much else to bomb or destroy but people.
 
 
Frances Farmer
18:04 / 09.10.01
quote:Originally posted by betty woo:
[QB]I don't really have an opinion at the moment about the international coalition's actions - there's not enough information available for me to assess what's really happening and why certain actions are being taken. Developing an opinion at this stage seems premature for me.


I very much appreciate that dose of sanity. After spending the last week or so posting, saying, and thinking "We're fucked," - It's good to know a logical outlook still exists.

quote:
As for a post-bombing response: infrastructure is a great idea, I just think it's one level too high for what the region really needs. A great many of the conditions in Afghanistan - political and social - are indirectly related to environmental scarcity, and I think that working to repair the land itself might be the best place to start. It doesn't impose Western cultural mores of any kind on the Afghan people - in fact, it frees them to return, if they like, to a traditional lifestyle that is presently difficult to impossible given the damage done by decades of conflict in the region.


Excellent points, all. So excellent, in fact, that I'm left with nought to respond with.

Thanks for the fresh air.
 
 
Chuckling Duck
18:31 / 09.10.01
Just shaving with my favorite razor here . . .

quote:Originally posted by sirius:
A psychologist years back noticed that crashed airplanes, busses, and trains, often have larger than normal cancellations before departure. He theorized that when a spike in cancellations occurs, the flight should be considered "at risk".


Companies tend to use their worst equipment on undertrafficked flights, such as those with high cancellation rates. Also, check your citation; I believe that you’re subtly mischaracterizing the study.

quote:Originally posted by sirius:
Did anyone else have bad dreams and nightmares about airplane crashes? Many New Yorkers did, many others also, me among them. I forbade my daughter to fly last August. She drove cross country instead.


I’m sure many people had dreams about plane crashes in the two months preceding 9/11. I’m sure that many people had dreams about giant snakes, too.

quote:Originally posted by sirius:

There was "a spike in insider trading on Monday, September 10th, in NY, London and Germany" CNBC. Do sucessful stock traders get "hunches"? You betcha they do.


There have been many such spikes in the last year, correct? And surely unsuccessful stock traders also get “hunches”.

quote:Originally posted by sirius:
The "terrorists" were trained by the CIA back when they were called "mujahadeen freedom fighters".
Is it so hard to believe that they may still have friends and contacts within
'The Company' who may still be helping them?
Possibly warning "an old friend" who warns others.


The New York Times reported that the FBI is investigating people who made suspiciously insightful trades prior to 9/11, hoping to catch collaborators that way. But if they turn up anything, I think it’s more likely that they will track the money back to one or more Saudi financiers like Bin Laden.
 
 
sirius
21:44 / 09.10.01
Chuckling Duck,
I saw a large black snake in my backyard,
(down by the river) but I didn't dream about it.
dude
 
  
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