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Richard Milton's Alternative Science

 
 
grant
13:07 / 26.04.02
I finally found the guy who wrote the book knocking orthodox Darwinism from a non-creationist standpoint (if anyone remembers that topic in Switchboard).

His name is Richard Milton, and he's a regular gadfly. Dig his home page, "Alternative Science", where he covers everything from cold fusion to using ESP to win the lottery....


"What is Alternative Science" excerpt:
But if the evidence shows that many scientists are unwilling to be persuaded by experimental evidence, then how are new discoveries ever accepted by science? One answer is that of Nobel prize winner and physicist Max Planck, who said, 'A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.'

The 'alternative' of my title refers not to some new kind of science, hitherto undiscovered: it refers to a scientific attitude that is the opposite of closed: an approach that is willing to confront anomalous and disturbing data, even when that evidence is deeply traumatic to our settled world view.

Alternative science, open science, is the science of Newton, Einstein and Dirac -- it just hasn't had time to become respectable yet.


*********

"Impossible" excerpt: When Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone he also made a remarkable leap of imagination. He correctly foresaw how people would use his invention; that they would speak on the phone instead of writing a letter -- an early form of electronic mail.

Keen to sell his invention, Bell approached the Post Offices and commercial organisations responsible for carrying mail. The U.S. Post Office turned him down, as did Western Union. Then he approached the British Post Office, whose Chief Engineer, Sir William Preece was one of Britain's most distinguished scientists.

Preece was a Fellow of the Royal Society who had studied under the great Michael Faraday himself. Preece examined Bell's invention, but he, too, rejected it on the grounds that, "England has plenty of small boys to run messages."

Preece later surpassed even this judgment. When told that Thomas Edison was researching an incandescent electric lamp with a high-resistance filament, Preece described it as "A completely idiotic idea."


*********


"Darwinism" excerpt: One unique and honourable exception was NBC's decision in 1996 to broadcast the film Mysterious Origins of Man, made by Emmy-award winning director Bill Cote, in which independent investigators had a rare opportunity to present anomalous evidence of historical geology, and mankind's past, so that viewers could evaluate this alternative evidence for themselves.

The program proved immensely popular with many viewers, attracting audiences of around 20 million on each of the two occasions when it was shown. The producers also received dozens of abusive responses, which included virtually no attempts to rebut the scientific issues raised but took the consensus position that students and the public should not be given access to such contradictory evidence.

They included terms such as; 'horrible'; 'atrocious'; 'garbage'; 'anti-intellectual trash'; 'evil'; 'deliberate, fraudulent misinformation'; 'claptrap'; 'utter rubbish'; 'nonsense'; A bunch of hooey; 'unadulterated hogwash'; 'bullshit'; 'A piece of junk'; 'crap'; 'shame on you, liars and opportunists', and "Frankly, you are either morons or liars."

You might imagine that these remarks came from the keyboards of pharmaceutically-challenged undergraduates or semiliterate teenagers. In fact they are the words of senior scientists and academics (including several professors) from Yale, University of California at Berkeley, State University of New York, University of Texas at Austin, Wisconsin, New Mexico State, Colorado, Northwestern, and other universities.

Two such academics were so upset by the broadcast they injudiciously let the cat out of the bag completely:

"Thanks largely to the efforts of people like yourself, the American public is generally not capable of evaluating the "arguments" and "evidence" you present." fulminated one.

Another was even more candid. "You should be banned from the airwaves."

Here the programme's critics finally came out into the open: The American people are incapable of evaluating scientific arguments and evidence for themselves. Consequently, people who provide evidence or arguments that contradict the accepted view should be banned from broadcasting.


*********

"Paranormal" excerpt: Q. How come every single famous 'psychic' was eventually unmasked as a phony?

A. It's true to say that there always have been and always will be phonies and charlatans claiming psychic powers either for profit or for notoriety.

But it's wrong to say that every psychic has been exposed as fraudulent. Quite apart from famous names like Uri Geller, there are dozens of individuals all over the world who have repeatedly performed paranormal feats in controlled conditions.

In England there are Nicholas Williams, Stephen North, Julie Knowles and a number of juveniles who remain anonymous such as Andrew G. In France there is Jean-Pierre Girard. In Japan there is Masuaki Kiyota and in Russia there are numerous individuals, the best known of which is Nina Kulagina.

Working with English metal benders, John Hasted, professor of experimental physics at Birkbeck College, University of London, has devised extensive methods of guarding against conscious or unconscious fraud. He has for example implanted microscopic strain gauges in metal specimens linked electrically to a chart recorder to provide a record of the forces imposed on the specimen. He has recorded many instances of stresses being registered simultaneously from three or more gauges, and extensive deformation of the specimen, under circumstances that rule out fraud. In one famous case, a large piece of aluminium was twisted out of shape by Andrew G., a 12-year old boy, from a distance of 30 feet.

Doctors Charles Crussard and Jean Bouvaist in France have recorded metal bending by Jean-Pierre Girard in glass tubes that have been completely sealed under conditions that have been examined by Hasted and others. Working under the auspices of a French commercial metals company, the investigators have gone to enormous lengths to ensure the effects they are examining were produced paranormally and not by normal methods.

For example each metal sample was hallmarked so it could not be substituted, and all its dimensions measured accurately before and after bending. The hardness of the metal was tested before and after and the crystalline structure of the metal examined by taking 'residual strain profiles'. The structure was also examined under the electron microscope and micro photographs taken. In addition the chemical composition of the metal was examined before and after.

These observations revealed a number of structural anomalies such as a local hardening of the kind produced by compression forces of many tons, but apparently originating internally.

Hasted has adopted similar rigorous precautions to rule out fraud. For example he and the French researchers have been able to get subjects to bend metal rods that it is beyond the strength of any normal person to bend. Crussard has videotaped Jean-Pierre Girard bending a metal rod by gently stroking it, yet producing a bend that requires some three times the strength of a normal person.

Hasted has also reported the phenomenon of a metal-bender turning part of a spoon 'as soft as chewing gum' merely by stroking but under closely controlled conditions that enabled the plastic deformation to be verified by Hasted himself and where the chemical composition and weight of the spoon was examined before and after. It is possible to soften a metal spoon chemically but only by causing a corrosion that would leave a number of alteration such as weight loss, and no such changes were detected.

The usual response to such experiments is "How come scientists have discounted them? They must have been frauds musn't they?"

What has tended to happen in the past two decades, especially since CSICOP has been on the case, is that if anyone claiming psychic powers shows any signs of gaining scientific credibility, then a concerted attempt is made to ridicule and publicly debunk that person, showing how he or she "could have" faked their results. These "explanations" are usually preposterously contorted exercises but as long as the mud sticks they serve their purpose. Thereafter the "skeptics" can always claim "so and so was caught cheating and exposed long ago".

No-one ever bothers to check the real facts and most people dimly recall the public notoriety that the "skeptics" achieved simply by making accusations of fraud.
 
 
Lionheart
16:59 / 27.04.02
About Nina Kulagina:

Randi "disproved" her by saying that she used strings and magnets to move objects. Problem is that, a.) Randi was never present at the experiments, and b.) he took all of his information from an article in Pravda in which the author of the article said that what Nina does must be trickery because psychic powers are bullshit. Well, what Randi didn't know, because he didn't investigate, is that there are films of Nina Kulagina moving non metallic or magnetic objects in glass boxes... In labs in which Nina was never present before.

Oh, and Bell didn't invent the telephone. That was Antonio Meucci who lived right here in Staten Island, New York.

Btw, didn't you ask me to write an article on something like this?
 
 
grant
15:39 / 29.04.02
You know, I can't remember. Yes, something like that.
Lionheart, this guy's site seems right up your alley - spend some time prowling around it and let me know the most interesting things you find.
 
 
Lurid Archive
16:18 / 29.04.02
Its an interesting site and he does raise some good points. I've only really skimmed the material, most of which I know very little about, but I couldn't help notice that some of his explanations and interpretations are a touch controversial. But at least he presents evidence and argument, and does not solely rely on the widespread mistrust of "arrogant" scientists to support his points.
 
 
The Monkey
08:15 / 30.04.02
I would say that Milton and his website fall into the same trap as overenthusiastic [applied] researchers and pitchmen in more conventional scientific documentation...there is the push by the author that the reader accept so many "givens" prior to the presentation of the findings, without extensive justification of those presumptions/assumptions. There is also the effort to present essentially qualitative assessments [which are of value in their own right, but nonetheless marked by the subjectivity of perspective] as qualitative.

A great deal of weight is thrown upon the idea of "opposition" to the closed-minded scientific majority as evidence of the validity of these positions, although he's better than most. I am particularly amused at the coding of language in the section analyzing William Reich, and the quantity of text and energy put into presenting Reich's personal history as a figure "heroic" by modern constructions. In the other articles, I am similarly interested in the fashion in which the vocal opposition of certain members of the scientific community - particularly statements that wiil evoke a strong emotive-reaction, such as "burning books" - are used [decontextualized] to present a struggle of an underdog revolutionary and the stodgy opposition. I would be more impressed to see data standing alone to suppport some of the scientific claims, seperate from the continual pitching of some archetypal contest between the new and the orthodox. It is similarly interesting how accusations of reductionism on the part of conventional science are countered with alternate-version reductionism on the part of the "alternative scientists," with the realm of possible interpretations of available data being pre-strained to fit the ideological perspectives of the researcher/presenter.

There is also the sampling issue. Milton is presenting the aberration from accepted science values as being valid because it is aberrant? In many of his cases, he cites one or two examples of "new findings," but this leaves open the question of the mass of documentation that might contradict the "new findings."

One can look at a similar fashion at Sheldrake's available texts...in particular his Seven Experiments, all of which would be interesting courses to pursue. However, Sheldrake, in his language and his argumentative structure, wishes to direct the reader to believe his line of thinking, rather than leaving the conclusion of the experiment open.

I would demand of "Alternative Science" the same standards that root my skepticism within the realm of "Science"...review by peers, multiple successful repititions of the procedure, and open-source records of the protocols and the quantitative data.
 
 
grant
13:16 / 30.04.02
Maybe the website is really a plea for "peers" to do some reviewing, eh?
 
 
Lurid Archive
14:40 / 30.04.02
I'm not sure that it really is a plea for peer reviewing. To select a few examples, I'd say that scientists have given a lot of thought to evolution, cold fusion and Jacques Benveniste's "memory of water". This rejection is characterised as censorship and dogmatism. Therefore there would be little point in getting scientists to analyse the results - they have already done so and their rejection indicates their closed mindedness. Personally, I'm with monkey, in that I find it suspicious that so much energy is devoted to emotive language.

Now I've only named a few examples, but I think that this is true of most of his analyses. For instance his defence of pschokinesis is badly wrong for statistical reasons - I am not saying that I reject the idea itself, merely the statistical analysis given. If new drugs were tested by similar methods, the result would be unsafe or ineffective products because that sort of method allows manipulation of data.

I find it ironic that many people who are sceptical of scientists would demand absolute rigour when it comes to conventional science, in medicine for instance, but consider those same restrictions to be inappropriate when applied to "alternative" science.
 
 
The Monkey
14:48 / 30.04.02
I'd say it would be to everyone's benefit, but sadly I'm in the minority. Scientists don't want to take time "debunking," and pseudoscientists are generally unwilling to come to the table unless they set the terms, and often assume that the scales are automatically tipped against them.

Actual testing of parascience claims [where possible] could root out the con men from the earnestly deluded from those who might be on to something. Serious treatment of topics [again, where possible...the Time Cube guy isn't ever going to be turned around, or turn others around, by reasoned debate] could at least weed out some of the more pathological alternate positions (the Duesburg fiasco comes to mind) that are sustained largely by the mentality that which deems subaltern as equivalent with validity.
 
 
The Monkey
14:54 / 30.04.02
Then again, science doesn't exactly have it's own house in order on the whole verification of results thing...as the trend of endless fluff publications regarding "this food additive will kill/make you immortal" prove.... Statistical analysis is the bane of the modern empiricist, because so few people fail to understand that correlation, no matter how strong, does not imply causation.
 
 
Lurid Archive
16:12 / 30.04.02
Yeah, thats absolutely right monkey. There are areas of conventional science which are at best misguided and at worst fraudulent. Somehow, economics springs to mind as a politically driven load of self justification that is made respectable with the sprinkling of a little math. On top of that, you do get scientists who really do overstate their results. Some of the more enthusiastic proponents of AI make it sound like we'll all have Orac - Blake's 7 sarcy computer - to play with in a few years.

But I'm all for close scrutiny that is conducted with an open mind and in a rigorous but fair way. Note that "open mind" does not mean setting out to prove that conventional science is wrong. It means open in the sense of not prejudging the case and letting the evidence be the final arbiter. There is no contradiction, for instance, in having an open mind about cold fusion and then deciding it doesn't work. This seems a rather obvious point but one which both scientists and pseudoscientists don't always take on board. I chose the examples above because to the best of my knowledge, they have been debunked. Its not that the scientists refused to look at the evidence, its that they came to the "wrong" conclusion.

Statistics is a whole can of worms. I went to a talk the other day by a stage magician turned statistician who likes to pick apart base assumptions in statistics. For instance, he got a casino to abandon a card shuffling machine by working out and then demonstrating its bias. He also does this for large scale (statistical) scientific models. He did a good job of convincing me that there is a lot of bollocks out there. Interestingly, his general philosophy to modelling was to make absolutely minimal assumptions and fill the gap with heavy duty math.

What I find interesting is how much my own experience and idea of what constitutes good science is very much at odds with that of many others. The words "arrogant", "narrow minded", "corrupt" and "amoral" seem to be more readily used about scientists than about other professions or groups of people - barring politicians. I tried to start a debate on this in the Science Love-in thread, but I don't think it really got going. Perhaps there is some trepidation in being labelled an "anti-scientist" or a sense of futility in confronting an arrogant purveyor of conventional wisdom.
 
 
Lurid Archive
16:24 / 30.04.02
wow - I just went to the Time Cube guy's site. amazing stuff. It'd be scary if he wasn't so obviously loony.
 
 
grant
17:42 / 01.05.02
From the New York Times, 30 April 02, by Case Western University physics dept. head Lawrence Krauss:

Odds Are Stacked When Science Tries to Debate Pseudoscience
By LAWRENCE M. KRAUSS
I vividly remember the first time I was hijacked on the radio. I had agreed to participate in a debate for a Florida radio program that specialized in alien visits and U.F.O. sightings. My better judgment suggested that I should be wary. But I thought if I kept my focus purely on the physics challenges involved in space travel, I might be able to persuade some listeners to be skeptical of the claims that aliens were regularly visiting, abducting and experimenting with our fellow earthlings.

I should have known better. After 45 minutes defending myself against the claim that I was close-minded, when I argued that science did in fact impose constraints on what is possible, and politely responding to demands that I must first scrupulously review all the specific claims of alien sightings before I could possibly have the temerity to make general statements about plausibility or implausibility, I felt that any uninformed listeners who might have been waiting to be swayed probably found themselves merely confused at the end of the show.

In a debate that confronts the results of science with pseudoscience, from alien abductions and crop circles on one hand to the health benefits of weak magnetic fields or young earth creationism on the other, the odds are stacked against science.

Part of the problem is uniquely American. We in the United States are constantly regaled by stories about the limitless possibilities open to those with know-how and a spirit of enterprise. Combine that with a public that perceives the limits of science as targets that are constantly being overcome, and the suggestion that anything is absolutely impossible seems like an affront. Indeed, modern technology has made the seemingly impossible almost ordinary. How often have I heard the cry from an audience, "Yeah, but 300 years ago people would have said it would be impossible to fly!"

Although true, the problem with that assertion is that 300 years ago people did not know enough about the laws of physics to make the assertion, so the claim would have been improper. Had they made a simpler claim like, "Three hundred years from now, if you drop this cannonball off the Tower of Pisa, it will fall down," they would have been right.

Although it is probably true that there is far more that we do not know about nature than that we do know, we do know something! We know that balls, when dropped, fall down. We do know that the earth is round and not flat. We do know how electromagnetism works, and we do know that the earth is billions of years old, not thousands.

We may not know how spacecraft of the future will be propelled, whether matter-antimatter drives will be built or even if time travel is possible. But we do know, absolutely, how much on-board fuel will be needed to speed up a substantial spacecraft to near the speed of light — an enormous amount, probably enough to power all of human civilization at the present time for perhaps a decade.

That means that aliens who want to come here from a distant star will probably have to have some better reason than merely performing secret kinky experiments on the patients of a Harvard psychiatrist.

As difficult as debating ultimate limits of the possible may be, there is another debate that is even harder to win. But it is a debate that may be even more important. It is a debate on the "fairness" of science. The reason for the difficulty is simple. Science is not fair. All ideas are not treated equally. Only those that have satisfied the test of experiment or can be tested by experiment have any currency. Beautiful ideas, elegant ideas and even sacrosanct notions are not immune from termination by the chilling knife edge of experimental data.

In Ohio, a debate is raging over whether to teach "intelligent design" alongside evolution in high school biology classes. Intelligent design is based on the belief that life is too complicated to explain by natural causes alone and that some intelligence, ultimately some divine intelligence, must have created the original life forms on earth or guided their development.

Proponents of that idea suggest that including it in the curriculum is simply a question of fairness. If a significant number of people do not believe that evolution provides an adequate explanation of the origin of species, they argue, then it is only fair to present both sides of the argument in a high school science class.

But at least half of Americans polled in a recent survey by the National Science Foundation did not know that Earth orbits the Sun, and that it takes a year to do so. Does this mean we should teach that Earth is the center of the universe? Of course not. It merely means that we are not doing a very good job informing the public about physics.

Science is not a democratic process. It does not proceed by majority rule and it does not accept notions that have already been disproven by experiment.

Intelligent design makes assertions that cannot be tested by experiment. Those assertions that can be tested, say about blood clotting or the claimed irreducible complexity of various components of cells, seem to have thus far failed those tests. So intelligent design does not belong in a science class. End of story.

Nevertheless, recently the Ohio State School Board felt it necessary to run a hearing on evolution vs. intelligent design in a debate format, with two proponents of evolution to face off against two advocates of intelligent design in Columbus.

One might think that I would know better than to agree to participate in such a debate. But I did, because I felt the education of schoolchildren in Ohio was so important.

Nevertheless, I tried to learn from my earlier mistakes. Merely having a debate inevitably suggests that each side has some credibility. As a result, opponents of the scientific method like creationists try very hard to appear in debates with scientists. Merely being on the same stage represents a victory!

I made sure that I emphasized this intrinsic inequity in my opening remarks in Columbus, and it colored much of the subsequent discussion, as well as the later reporting of the event. I do not know whether it was sufficient to let listeners focus on whether there was really anything worth debating in the first place. But it at least allowed for that possibility.

In the meantime, for those scientists who find themselves thrust in such public debates, I have found at least one useful tool. When debating U.F.O. experts, ask them whether they believe in "Young Earth Creationism." When debating young earth creationists, ask them whether they believe in alien U.F.O.'s. When they say no, ask why. Their answers will inevitably shed light on the weakness of their own positions.

Of course, as has once happened to me, you might find yourself debating a U.F.O.-believing creationist. But you can't win them all. My hope is that you can win at least some of the time.


I would point out that Krauss is presuming UFO "aliens" are coming from distant star systems using something like conventional modes of transport (engines propelling bodies through space) rather than popping in from other dimensions, or using "wormholes" or some other way to get from point A to point B, or rocketing in from somewhere really nearby. But then I would, since the article was forwarded to me by a ufo researcher.
However, he does seem open to the greatest advantage of real science: the ability to say "we just don't know."
 
 
Lurid Archive
12:11 / 02.05.02
Yeah, grant. I had a similar discussion with a rather obstinate scientist a little while ago. They refused to accept the possibility of "crossing dimensions" and wormholes etc as a potential means of interstellar travel due to lack of evidence. Occam's Razor was invoked a lot. The thing is, that is entirely inappropriate when you are talking about phenonema and science that is well beyond our grasp.

Of course, on the other hand, one shouldn't talk about these things as if they are well known or even likely. They are possibly true, and there may be other methods of interstellar travel that haven't occurred to us. Thing is, we just don't know. The only method that we are pretty sure about is the use of colony ships. These don't require an excessive amount of fuel, but they do take an awfully long time.

BTW, I tend not to believe in UFO's etc, but for different reasons and I'm not that rabid about it.
 
 
grant
15:58 / 02.05.02
Here's a rebuttal from an unorthodox, "alternative" scientist:

Cc: Stan Friedman
Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 6:01 PM
Subject: L.M. Krauss article 4/30/02


Letter to NYT Re L.M. Krauss, NY TIMES May 1, 2002 Stanton T. Friedman

Lawrence Krauss (NYT April 30 re Pseudoscience) follows in the footsteps of a number of academic scientists bold enough to make predictions of the future of flight. Dr. Simon Newcomb in October, 1903, published an article “scientifically” proving that the only way man would ever fly would be with the help of a balloon. just 2 months before the Wright Brothers first flight.. Dr. Bickerton in the 1920’s proved “scientifically” that it would be impossible to provide anything with sufficient energy to place it in orbit around the earth. Dr. Campbell, at the U. of W. Ontario, proved “scientifically” in 1941 that the required initial launch weight of a chemical rocket able to take a man to the moon and back would be only 300,000,000 times higher than what was actually required as demonstrated less than 30 years later by the Apollo Program. Campbell made such pseudoscientific assumptions as that the rocket would have only one stage, would be limited to 1G acceleration, would be launched vertically, and would require a retrorocket to slow it down before return to earth. The NASA aerospace engineers and applied scientists of course used a multistage rocket, exposed the astronauts to several Gs, launched to the East from near the equator, and took advantage of the moon’s gravity to provide some of the energy and the earth’s atmosphere to slow down the rocket upon return. Making wrong assumptions usually leads to false conclusions.

Krauss’ claim “we do know absolutely, how much on board fuel will be needed” is pseudoscience of the highest degree, equivalent to Campbell’s absurd assumptions. I am not surprised at this arrogance having debated him on a California radio show about UFOs. I had earlier read 2 of his books (though he had read neither of mine).As a nuclear physicist who worked on nuclear power plants for space applications and aircraft nuclear propulsion systems as well as on fission and fusion rockets, I was able to demonstrate on the air that he had provided misinformation about these areas of technology and about UFOs, as well.

Of course he refused my challenge to a public debate. As night be expected. he followed the 4 basic rules for UFO debunking : 1. Don’t bother me with the facts, my mind is made up. 2. What the public doesn’t know, I will not tell them.3. If I can’t attack the data, I will attack the people, it is easier. And 4. I will do my research by proclamation, since investigation is too difficult..

Proclamations by Academic Professionals, about things about which they know almost nothing, are the lowest form of pseudoscience.

Stanton T. Friedman, fsphys@brunnet.net

Nuclear Physicist Lecturer

Fredericton, NB, Canada


It's all about initial assumptions.
 
 
Lurid Archive
16:21 / 02.05.02
Some of it is initial assumptions, but some of it is just unknown. I don't think its unfair to claim that using known technology, interstellar flight either takes a very long time or uses a lot of fuel - perhaps both.

Alternative methods, which would probably be required by aliens sighted via UFO's unless they came from "close by", are just a long way ahead of us. Who knows if wormholes could ever be used to travel hundreds of light-years? And if such travel would be practical? There has to be a distinct possibility that faster than light travel isn't possible. In the same way, there is also a possibility that UFO sightings are of man made objects. Just because a lot of people see them, it doesn't make them alien. I'm unconvinced, but maybe thats just asking for an abduction.

You are right, though, in saying that scientists can make unwarranted claims that attempt to debunk theories.
 
 
Fist Fun
11:00 / 08.05.02
Just spotted this thread. I recently read a book of his called forbidden science, which discussed that same sort of things. It mainly concentrated on the fact that inventions we take for granted today, e.g. manned flight, were scoffed at back in the day...so it is argues we should be less sceptical about science today e.g. Uri Geller.
 
 
Lurid Archive
14:24 / 08.05.02
Buk, if by less sceptical you mean that we shouldn't dismiss claims out of hand, purely because they are unconventional, then I would wholeheartedly agree. If instead you mean that we should accept "science" that doesn't neccessarily pass rigorous tests involoving falsifiable hypotheses, independent repetition, peer review etc, then I would disagree.

As for Uri Gellar, I have seen him bend spoons countless times on TV. Interestingly, I've not once seen him do it in a way that would lend credence to his psychic powers. He could easily convince the scientific community that he has the powers he claims. All he needs to do is to let someone else provide the spoon, search him for foreign objects and be filmed closely the whole time. Doing this sufficiently often will eventually convince people.

He usually performs in environments quite similar to those used by stage magicians. Unless we are to believe that all stage magicians are actually psychically endowed then surely there should be some way to distinguish the two? A way that is more substantial than simply taking someone at their word.

Its pretty easy to call someone closed minded or prejudiced. Its quite hard to successfully test a claim scientifically.
 
 
Lionheart
05:19 / 10.05.02
What's that theory called? The one that people confuse with Creationism?

The one that says that something might be guiding evolution?

Well, even if Neo-Darwinism was 100% right then isn't it likely that the most succesful animals will be the ones who can control their own evolution?

I mean, in biofeedback it was discovered that a human being can, after training, control a single neuron cell. Causing it to fire on command. So isn't it at all possible that the subconcious mind of humans can alter our genetic structure?
 
 
Lurid Archive
06:36 / 10.05.02
Can't remember the term for "guided" evolution. Thing is, its not really a scientific theory since (practically by definition) it is not falsifiable. Please correct me if Im wrong.

Altering genetic structure certainly sounds like a positive evolutionary trait, but I'm not sure that this sort of argument works. I mean, evolution would also probably favour those with super powers. Does that mean that some/all of us have super strength? The wide range of contexts where this sort of argument might apply is one way to demonstrate its flaws. This is without resorting to the finer points of Neo Darwinian evolution, which would reject it out of hand since it proposes an incorrect mechanism for evolutionary "advance".
 
 
Lionheart
14:12 / 10.05.02
In responce to your last post:

http://www.alternativescience.com/darwinism-faq.htm

In responce to the post before your last post. That is before my post. not this post but the one, by me, before it. See it? Yeah, that's the one...

http://www.alternativescience.com/photographic-evidence-paranormal.htm

This time I'll quote...

Q. Why is it that the supernatural powers we hear being claimed are never performed in front of cameras or recorded on electronic instruments?

A. There is a long history of anomalous phenomena being electrically recorded and photographed under strictly supervised laboratory conditions, going back more than sixty years.

Probably the best-known of such cases are the sessions that Uri Geller spent at Stanford Research Institute, which were virtually all filmed.

One such filmed session shows the following. A one gramme weight is placed on the scale pan of an electronic balance and the balance is covered by a glass bell jar. Geller is not allowed to touch or approach the balance. The film shows the balance registering first an increase in weight and then a decrease in weight. A little later, Geller is shown causing a full-scale deflection on a gaussmeter (an instrument for measuring magnetic fields).

James "The Amazing" Randi continues to claim that he has exposed Uri Geller and shown how his "tricks" are performed. In reality, neither Randi nor anyone else has shown how Geller could perform by trickery the effects captured on film at SRI.

It may well be true that magicians like Randi can fool most of the people (including me) most of the time; and it may well be true that scientists are easy to fool if you know how. But it is categorically false to say that magicians' tricks enable you to cause a scale under a bell jar to register an increase and decrease in weight, and a gaussmeter to register a full scale deflection under the conditions imposed -- and filmed being imposed -- at SRI.

Randi's only suggestion for these phenomena is the hilarious idea that Geller caused the effects by jumping up and down on the floor -- unnoticed by the film camera. But the scientists conducting the experiments not only jumped up and down before testing began, they also kicked the table and knocked the bell jar to eliminate such experimental artefacts.

Films of Geller at SRI and other individuals in other laboratories can be bought and viewed by anyone. That they continue to be ignored raises the central question that parapsychology should be addressing: What evidence for paranormal phenomena would 'skeptics' be willing to accept?

British skeptic Dr Jonathan Miller was candid enough to admit on television a few years ago, "Even if you showed me the evidence for homeopathy, I still wouldn't believe in it."

The only difference between Dr Miller and other skeptics is that he is honest enough to admit that no facts are going to change his mind.



Oh, and Grant, muchos gracias for the link!
 
 
Lurid Archive
08:58 / 11.05.02
Perhaps we should build some bridges. So, contrary to impressions I don't rule out every alternative phenomenon. Nor am I, like some skeptics, unwilling to be convinced.

However, I am a skeptic in that I find it hard to accept facts that are radically at odds with my experience and/or understanding unless I have a good reason.

What would it take to convince me? I think I've outlined that above - proper controlled testing, repeated experiments, peer review, etc.

Now I can be a bit hard about this sometimes, but this goes as much for conventional science as it does for the unconventional. There is a lot of junk out there and you need some basis for rejecting it.

Lets put it this way. Suppose a drug company had a pill that offered a miracle cure in some well publicised case. Would we be happy to accept the treatment without testing, verfication and all the usual safeguards? I'd say no.

You might agree with me on the grounds that drug companies are "part of the system". I'd want a way of testing claims that didn't rely on the character of the person making the claim. Some people disagree and think that conventional is always right and unconventional is always wrong. This is narrow minded and shallow. Is it equally shallow to do the opposite?

I do find the style of presentation of alternative theories rather off putting. The case presented tends to be one sided in that a discussion of evidence is deemed superfluous. There is also, as pointed out above, a great deal of effort put into the rhetoric that besmirches critics. Perhaps this is understandable if one accepts the giant conspiracy of established science but there are better ways of convincing conventional scientists. Calling them liars and cheats won't tend to win them over.

Ultimately, if there is so much distrust of scientists that every claim they make is considered flawed or biased then there is really very little to be said. This sort of inverse skepticism is just as unassailable as the usual kind and any defence of science is seen as further propoganda. It doesn't match my experience of science or scientists, but I concede that I have probably been brainwashed.


To specifics:

Uri Gellar has not demonstrated his abilities well. There is a bunch of evidence for and a bunch against. There are numerous claims that he has faked abilities and has been unable to perform under close scrutiny. This may be an aspect of his ability, but since my neutral stance is to disbelieve I'll reject his claims. Of course, I could be absolutely wrong - I'd love to find that out. On the other hand he may be a fraud. How to decide?

Evolution: The site you link to is misleading in some of its claims of evolution, but I'm not really an expert and it may be right that there are some serious flaws with evolution.

I would point out that Lamarckism is really more susceptible to attack than darwinism. As for guided evolution, this is perfectly rationally consistent. As is the theory that we were all created five minutes ago complete with memories and, among other things, this post. Scary, huh?

I'd reject that not for any rational reason - I don't think there is one - but more out of an optimism for our understanding of the universe. As far as I can see, correct me if I'm wrong, guided evolution sets a rather close limit to our understanding.

Q:Why did such an experiment fail?
A:Becuase the almighty so and so willed it.

I think of astronomy (in a historically v. inaccurate way). One could have accepted that God controlled the movements of the planets. Or one could actually try to see if there is any way to understand them without appeal to an unknowable divinity. Ultimately, I want us to know and understand.
 
 
Lionheart
18:50 / 13.05.02
Lurid Archive:

You just perfectly stated what the guy was saying. Claims need to be tested. The whole point of the web site is that there have been claims which the mainstream scientific community has refused to test, and there have been claims made which have been tested, found to be true and yet have been ignored by the mainstream scientific community.

Studies on Uri Geller have been inconclusive because of what you said. Some came out against him and some came out for him.

Then you make the mistake that you do not believe in his ability because your "neutral stance" is to disbelieve. How can a neutral stand be against something? or for something? An actual neutral stand would be exactly that. Neutral. Agnostic.

Instead of counting the studies done that came out for and against him I would actually look at the studies.

You said:

"There are numerous claims that he has faked abilities and has been unable to perform under close scrutiny. This may be an aspect of his ability, but since my neutral stance is to disbelieve I'll reject his claims. "

If you actually read what I posted then you'd notice:

"Probably the best-known of such cases are the sessions that Uri Geller spent at Stanford Research Institute, which were virtually all filmed.

One such filmed session shows the following. A one gramme weight is placed on the scale pan of an electronic balance and the balance is covered by a glass bell jar. Geller is not allowed to touch or approach the balance. The film shows the balance registering first an increase in weight and then a decrease in weight. A little later, Geller is shown causing a full-scale deflection on a gaussmeter (an instrument for measuring magnetic fields).

James "The Amazing" Randi continues to claim that he has exposed Uri Geller and shown how his "tricks" are performed. In reality, neither Randi nor anyone else has shown how Geller could perform by trickery the effects captured on film at SRI. "


Notice that Uri Geller has proven his claims under closely scrutinized circumstances. James Randi has only "disproven" Uri Geller's abilities by pointing out how they could've been faked without reviewing the evidence. This is notorius of Randi and he does this many times.

My poistion on Uri Gellar is neutral. I haven't reviewed the evidence from both sides so I can't state an opinion on his claims. And so neither should you scientifically.

Then you said:

"The site you link to is misleading in some of its claims of evolution." Please state some examples.

Also, you should apply scrutiny to accepted scientific beliefs. For example, as Robert Anton Wilson points out, Bell's Theorem has been proven twice and disproven once experimentally. Since it has been proven twice he's inclined to believe in it but in reality doing just 3 experiments can not justify a proof of anything.
 
 
Lurid Archive
15:34 / 14.05.02
Lionheart. I'm glad you've asked me these questions, but the answers are a bit long.

Suppose we look at a (scientific) claim for which there is little or no direct evidence. How do we talk about it? Do we simply say we don't know?

So for instance, those Breathearians claim they have the cure for hunger - you can live off spiritual energy and those damn scientists just won't accept it. The evidence is sketchy at best, but should a scientist respond "I don't know" to the question "Do humans require food to live?".

Suppose my friend walks into a room with no exits and someone asks me where he is. Do I say (scientifically) that I don't know? Because, after all, there may be a tunnel in there that I wasn't aware of. I'd say no. I'd say that this sort of statement is misleading and if applied where there is an ethical dimension involved, it becomes plain wrong.

The common feature is that there is a model of the world involved. The default position is to accept those claims which have been tested and verified (not falsified, perhaps) and to construct a model which minimally fits the data - this is old Occam's razor. The reason you need something like Occam is that for any set of data you can come up with countless theories which explain it. For science to attempt to be objective, there should be some principle that sorts them out which is separated from individual bias. Occam says choose the simplest one. So this leaves one with scientific procedure that collects observation and subjects it to scrutiny plus a principle like Occam which allows one to sort through potential theories.

Now, lets be clear, using Occam's razor can often produce incorrect conclusions. And the process is far from perfect, is subject to human error, tampering and leaves much explanation out. But I'm describing an ideal that science should and does, IMO, strive towards.

You might say that this process is in itself biased. I am happy to debate this with you - I think its interesting to think about. But I should label this with a health warning. I have little time for arguments where science philosophy is called biased because of the rejection of a particular claim. If one thinks that the scientific process is flawed then propose an alternative which would apply to all science - not just our favourite bits. So you need to ask yourself if a "new" science would make it easier for drug companies to get approval or for safety concerns to be skated over.

Now I'm sorry if I've given the impression of not being sceptical about science, this is almost the opposite of my position. Science is about scepticism. It's goal is the removal of individual bias from determining the nature of reality. The procedure involves treating every claim with scepticism - I sometimes get the impression that scientists are expected to be less sceptical about controversial science than they are about the more conventional.

With that said, and in the interests of readability, I'll reply to some of your other points in the next post.
 
 
Lurid Archive
15:46 / 14.05.02
Uri Gellar: I'll swiftly pass over the assertion that I didn't read your post. I spent an hour or so searching the web for claims and counter claims (lots of those) and for a copy of the Stanford Institute report, which I failed to find. Your quote claims that Randi is biased and the experiment was a success - I read countless reports like this, though they did little more than state an opinion. Writing that someone is a liar, doesn't make them a liar.

Similarly, I found lots of reports, which had clearly all been initiated by Randi, saying that Gellar is a fraud and the Stanford experiment did not come out in his favour - mostly opinion. I also found reports saying that Gellar often sues those who challenge his claims but refuses to demonstrate his ability in front of a jury.

So what do we have? An inconclusive claim, I suppose. Scientifically, I would say "There is insufficient reason to accept the claims made of Gellar's abilities". By Occam, that counts as a rejection. Please tell me if you think thats unfair. You also seem to imply that my rejection is final and absolute - it isn't, I have said that I would accept Gellar's claims if they were tested rigorously. Again, feel free to tell me if you think I'm lying.

Bell's Theorem: I really don't know where Robert Anton Wilson gets his info from. I do note that you haven't told me which experiments are the relevant ones and its not clear that you have anything beyond an unsupported quote. I'd also like to say that I'm not a physicist and so I spent a fair amount of time researching this - to show good faith.

A couple of points. Consider Newton's Theory of Gravity - leave aside relativity for now and assume we are working with objects comparable to apples. Suppose I say that it was inconclusively proved, you would probably be hard pressed to find a slew of papers repeating the necessary experiments. Its hard to publish a paper verifying an established theory. What you get is peers repeating the experiments and saying so and, perhaps, repetition being carried out by students.

I've spoken to a couple of physicists who claim that this is precisely the situation with Bell's Theorem and personal web pages seem to support this. Its tricky, since the web pages are not in the form of peer reviewed papers, but nor would you expect them to be. I've also been told that there is a lot of subsequent work based on the relevant effect - not knowing enough physics, I'm not entirely clear about the exact inter-relations, though I'm sure I could find out given enough time. It is, of course, entirely possible that I've been lied to at every turn, that there is a worldwide conspiracy of physicists who have decided that Bell's theorem is to be accepted as true for their own ends. It is also possible that science continues to produce technology despite the fact that results are often faked, data is invented and peer review is merely a rubber stamp.

OK, this link provides a critical review of Bell's Theorem, with references. This paper , provides an overview of Bell's Theorem, with lots of refs, by Aspect. I'd like to point out, that there are lots of references to actual experiments in these two links - not all the papers references pertain to experiments but there are some. I lost count at 10. Also, in the light of what I've said above, in most cases each paper tries to prove successively stronger versions of Bell's Theorem than the last.

Finally, it is misleading to think of a single paper as a single experiment. Each paper represents many, many repetitions of the experiment in order to be acceptable scientifically.

I've also got some thoughts about evolution, but perhaps I'll decline from further swamping this thread with my meanderings. At least for now.
 
 
Chuckling Duck
20:01 / 14.05.02
Lurid Archive wrote:

> Can't remember the term for "guided" evolution.

I think “teleology” is what you’re fishing for.

Lionheart posted this link:

> http://www.alternativescience.com/darwinism-faq.htm

I read this website with growing horror. The site is riddled with elementary misunderstandings of biology and history that even an English major (that’s me) can recognize as just plain wrong. For example, the author says “The word selection means to choose one or a few from a greater number, as in selecting a dish from a menu. Selection is thus inescapably a process that reduces biological diversity...It is obvious therefore that no form of selection can be the central engine that drives evolution...it is mutation alone that can account for the origin of species.” No, selection obviously plays a role. Genetic variation arises through mutation and genetic drift and is then reduced by selection. Otherwise there would still be mastadons running around. This is high school biology, folks.

I can’t accept the author as a cutting edge science revolutionary when he’s quoting biology texts from the 1960’s (Michael Denton’s cytochrome c material, for example) and ignoring the findings of modern gene sequencing (unexpressed--so-called “junk”--DNA sequence comparisons dovetailing with our morphological classifications of living species). This isn’t “alternative” science--it’s someone who doesn’t know his stuff.

Most damming of all is that while he claims to be doing this all in service of open-minded freedom of inquiry, he posts no links to any contrary opinions. When you go over to www.talkorigins.org (Lionheart, I followed your link, so I hope you’ll follow mine) to read up on evolutionary science, you find that there are links to creationist websites like Answers in Genesis, ID sites like Behe’s, and even to this “alternative” science guy’s site. Now that’s open mindedness: they aren’t trying to hide anything; they rely on facts and logic to make their case for them.

Lionheart, did you ever pick up Carl Sagan’s “The Demon Haunted World”? I still think you’d find it thought provoking.
 
 
Lionheart
04:24 / 31.05.02
Actually the real reason there are gaps in the fossil record is because of geological changes over time. For a couple of thousand years a place has the perfect conditions for creating a fossil... and then the place floods over. And then after a couple of thousand years the waters recede and the process starts all over again.
 
 
Lionheart
04:32 / 31.05.02
Chuckling Duck: I don't agree nor disagree with Richard Milton for basically a few reasons. First of all, I didn't do no research. And second of all, he says it's a Darwinism FAQ. Not an evolution FAq. So maybe he's only criticizing Darwinism. Okay, okay, that's not the most valid point to make but I cant' argue for either side before I review both sides' statements and facts. Oh and the problem with the link you gave me is that it's a newsgroup archive. I promise to read it but I must inform you that it'll take me some time.
 
 
Lionheart
04:57 / 31.05.02
Lurid Archive:

Notice how I dissed R.A.W. for not providing sources. You've basically pointed out what I was saying, that there are usually studies favoring both sides of a topic.

But anyways, back to Randi...

you said:

"Your quote claims that Randi is biased and the experiment was a success - I read countless reports like this, though they did little more than state an opinion. Writing that someone is a liar, doesn't make them a liar."

I didn't just state my opinion. I staed pure fact. Go out and read some of Randi's "debunking" work. It all sounds quite convincing until you realize that he never disproves anything. He just shows how it could've been faked under specific conditions. I cited an example, Nina Kalugina (hope I got her name right.) Randi says that she could've moved the objects in the psychokinesis experiments when scientists weren't looking. Or by using strings and magnets. Randi's case falls apart when one finds out that the experiments were filmed, the place where the experiments were held were in a lab in which Nina has never been before. And the objects, which were non-magnetic, were enclosed in a glass case. This ruins all of Randi's case against Nina.

That's what I'm talking about. Randi barely does any actual investigating. Instead he's an armchair speculator.

Now onto Occam's Razor. It's obviously biased. Who decides which model minimally fits the data? How? And why is the simplest explanation always taken?

If we used Occam's Razor on Newton then we would go along with his assertion that gravity is the pull of God. We don't. Instead we go into a complex theory involving multi-dimensional space.

Anyways....

Nobody I know thinks that the scientific process is flawed. A lot of people think it's the scientific establishment that's flawed.
 
 
Lurid Archive
15:18 / 31.05.02
Notice how I dissed R.A.W. for not providing sources.

Sorry, Lionheart, but I missed that. And reading back over the thread seem unable to find it. You then say,

You've basically pointed out what I was saying, that there are usually studies favoring both sides of a topic.

In a sense this is right. People believe all sorts of things. The flat earthers, the creationists, the breathearians. Yesterday I bumped into someone who said that Australia doesn't exist. Thing is, I don't think that all these positions have equal weight. You provided me with an unsupported quote and not a study. I replied with a list of research papers, reporting actual experiments. You can disbelieve the list if you choose, but implying that both positions are equally supported is shockingly misleading.

On to Randi:

I'm not a big fan of Randi's but I think that the aspects of his work that you object to, are actually at the core of the scientific method. Often what happens in science is that someone makes a claim that there is some new effect and an experiment that attempts to validate this. People then criticise the methodology and often propose different explanations for the observed results and sometimes even question the results themselves.

The response is then to repeat the experiment - usually, this should be done by a different set of experimenters if the result is controversial - and design experiments to determine which set of possible explanations is most likely. This happens in mainstream science all the time.

So when you say,

[Randi] never disproves anything. He just shows how it could've been faked under specific conditions.

he is in fact doing something that is part of the scientific process. The standard thing to do would be to repeat the experiments under more stringent conditions etc.

Let me give you an example. I think that the safety of GM foods is undecided. Now, a big biotech company might point to the fact that there is no strong evidence to demonstrate GM foods are unsafe. They might then say that I haven't proven any health risk, have not been present while trials were carried out and that I am just an "armchair speculator".

I can think of lots of reasons why there might be some doubt as to the safety of these foods and it is up to others to demonstrate safety, not for me to demonstrate risk. Its the same with Randi - if the sort of principle you are advocating with respect to his work were carried through the rest of science, then anyone could make a claim and get some support for it with little opposition. (For a brief discussion of how to fake evidence, look here).

I say that scepticism should be applied with the same rigour throughout. BTW - a quick Google on Nina Kalugina points to some disagreement as to the laboratory conditions that she was working under and provides numerous methods that may have been used to fake the results.

Occam's Razor

I gave detailed reasons why you need such a principle and the reasons for choosing the simplest explanation. You say it is biased but do not say why. Nor do you say what to replace it with. I'll ask this question (again). The breathearians believe that we can live off sunlight and that there are experiments supporting them. Most people believe that the experiments are worthless. How should a scientist answer the question

"Do people need food to survive?"


Further, your analysis of Newton is seriously flawed. Newton may have believed that God caused the planets to move, but this statement formed no part of his laws. Moreover, God is usually ascribed properties of omnipotence and omnipresence that make the idea of God about as complex as possible - God is not "simple". The adoption of multidimensional theories is still tentative but arises only through absolute neccessity - the simpler theories are always favoured and are only abandoned when they are indequate to fit observed data. As I said before - for any theory there are thousands more complex theories which would fit the same data. How do you choose between them?

Nobody I know thinks that the scientific process is flawed.

Actually, by rejecting Occam's razor and by saying that the burden of proof lies with those who wish to disprove claims, you are definitely saying that the scientific process is flawed. I'd say that if the standards you suggest were adopted universally, science would essentially founder and would become the puppet of the powerful - more than it is now.

A lot of people think it's the scientific establishment that's flawed.

Yes. And the level of confidence that people have in scientists is rock bottom. For instance, you brought up doubts about Bell's theorem based on a single quote, that would require a worldwide conspiracy spanning generations. If true, it would constitute the fabrication of pretty much all of quantum mechanics which we are told is the basis of a lot of our technology. When I produced many reported experiments that confirm the result, your response is to say that there is evidence for both sides.

This level of scepticism in science and scientists is impossible to counter. It is akin to disbelieving the existence of Australia just because someone on the street suggests that it doesn't exist.
 
 
Chuckling Duck
15:52 / 31.05.02
Lionheart: “...he says it's a Darwinism FAQ. Not an evolution FAq. So maybe he's only criticizing Darwinism. “

Many creationists use “Darwinism” as a perjorative term for the Theory of Evolution. Since we don’t call the Theory of Relativity “Einsteinism” or the Theory of Gravity “Newtonism”, it’s an odd way of speaking. (Though I guess we do sometimes speak of “Newtonian physics.”) There’s no difference between the two.

The waters are slightly muddied because some prominent evolutionary theorists, such as the late, lamented Steven Jay Gould, are sometimes called neodarwinists because their model of evolutionary development proceeds in fits and starts rather than at the constant rate envisioned by Darwin. However, all evolutionary theorists accept Darwin’s insight about natural selection working on natural variation. Alternate theories, such as Lamark’s heretibility of acquired traits, a) aren’t evolution and b) aren’t supported by evidence.

However, Milton’s FAQ claims that speciation has never been observed, which is in total contradiction of not only the Theory of Evolution but Lamark’s ideas, and Lysenko’s and so on. It is also false: the fossil record contains many examples of speciation, some of which can be found at that talk.origins.org site.

Lionheart: “Oh and the problem with the link you gave me is that it's a newsgroup archive. I promise to read it but I must inform you that it'll take me some time. “

Have fun! Instead of rooting through the archives, I suggest reading the FAQs. Every point Milton tries to make has been definitively refuted there.
 
  
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