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Presumptive Analysis: Assaults on US, Fallout

 
 
Frances Farmer
17:06 / 11.09.01
This morning, conveniently '9/11/01', what could be considered a ten year legacy found it's place in the annals of terrorist history. The World Trade Centers towers - both of them - remain nothing but ruin, and little is known as to how many lives have been lost. The Towers could have contained as many as 50,000 civilians, we're told.

Americans on the West coast, conveniently seperated literally by space and subjectively by time find themselves wandering in a stupor. Confusion is apparent, shock is the only manifest expression carried on the faces of typically unconcerned, all-consuming adults.

John McCain (Sen.) tells the world that this constitutes an act of war, while Bush Jr. defaults his chair to Cheney, presumably to fill a more critical role as commander-in-chief.

Airports are shut down, borders are closed, suspicions burn like magnesium, and tensions are bizarre. Americans and Europeans find themselves stunningly unsurprised ; some even suggest it was in some way deserved - a readily observable causal chain ending in five hijacked planes no one knows how many lost lives.

Naturally, these events leave a bounty of questions. Was this terrorism? Was this an act of war? Should the US respond? Is it over?

The US is adolescent in compare to many of our world's countries. As such, the US has often been seen as an obnoxious teenager whose certainty in it's own invulnerability is rivalled only by it's arrogance. Today, many Americans feel both humbled and quite vulnerable. And just about everyone, just about everywhere, is filled to the brim with questions.

What constitutes terrorism?

As the US is the present target of aggression, whatever we label that aggression, it might be appropriate to use the US Department of Defense definition of Terrorism to gauge these events. According to the US DoD, Terrorism is :

"the calculated use of violence or the threat of violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological."

Were we to create an itemized list of qualifiers, that list would most certainly include the following :

a) Fear
b) Intimidation
c) Ideological Goals

One might logically conclude that fear and intimidation are typical consequences of violent action - most specifically, violent action directed to a nation's civilian population.

One might logically conclude that ideological goals are generally the primary point of contention on the surface of most wars. Certainly, wars are also driven by economic motivations, egoist motivations and political leveraging - but to call a war a matter of politics, economics, or personal pride would certainly bring the protest raining down. That is to say, more so than it already does when a bunch of boys pick up their boom sticks and step up to the front of the line.

The question is, what differentiates "Terrorism" and "War"?

The answer, of course, is "Opinion".

The only opinion that counts, then, when someone intimidates the US executive branch, is of course that of the US executive branch. What tact does a country take to respond to these sorts of threats?

Perhaps a (yet another) metaphor is required here. How does a testosterone laden teenage boy respond to threats and the occasional pummeling from nameless, faceless peers in the hallway en route to AP English in room 151?

Like everything else, any assumptions we might make along these lines are driven by contigencies we can't see or understand - not unless we sit in the war room. Nonetheless, we can make the attempt.

That teenage boy is going to do his best to identify the nameless, faceless tormentors, and draw them into a public reckoning. Naturally, if they are unavailable (generally due to political allies and careful arrangement of certain resources), the teenager will logically seek the next best thing. An associated individual, a supporting individual, an easy target.

Like most humans, one who feels wronged is compelled to find a vessel within which to place the blame.

It's unlikely that this event will be permitted to pass unmanaged. Even if such "Management" is wholly inappropriate, it will be seen as a necessary imperative by those in the executive branch.

It may not be this week, or this month - but it will occur. If the US doesn't go to war, we can at the very least expect a massive balooning of the alphabet-soup budget-machine. The NSA will be cracking more codes, the CIA will be infiltrating more dissenters. The world is going to take a turn down a road which hasn't been maintained for fifty years. The potholes could pose a serious threat to more than just the US.

It doesn't matter if it's a terrorist action or an act of war. The course of action is clear reguardless. How fast and in what order remains to be seen, but the direction is a matter of inertia without friction. This object will tend towards motion - in a given direction. The US is sealed, and something is about to give.

My answers, then, to the questions posed above can only be rhetorical - but here they are.

Was this terrorism? The distinction is irrelevent.

Was this an act of war? In the eyes of those who're calling the shots for the US, it could be nothing else. Any other avenue leaves only wholly inadequate methods for response.

Should the US respond? The US will respond.

Is it over? No.

I hope we're all up for the ride.

This is my third attempt to post this message.
 
 
Our Lady of The Two Towers
17:57 / 11.09.01
There is, of course, never a good time for this sort of thing, but if it had to happen I think we'd all wish it wasn't when Bush was in the chair.

I'm watching a CNBC broadcast, it's gone from horror a few hours ago to a slowly growing anger. It's bad now, it's going to get worse now.
 
 
Frances Farmer
09:22 / 12.09.01
One more bit might be in order.

There are four known groups/powers in the world today with the financial backing and technological sophistication to execute this sort of operation. This in no way precludes hundreds of other possibilities, but speaking exclusively from the known resources point of view, these are our candidates, in order of most to least likely. Please note that this list pertains not to ideological implications, but rather funding, training, and other necessities involved in executing an operation of this complexity.

i. U.S. : Air Force Special Ops, Navy Special Ops, CIA.

ii. U.K. : MI5

iii. The Isreali "Secret Service"

iv. Osami bin Laden

Note the outcomes of any of these groups falling into the 'blame' catagory :

i. (U.S.) Restriction of civil liberties within the U.S., re-hash of McVeigh/traitor/patriot/trade-off [civil liberty vs. assurance of safety, etc] debates. Allies will likely be kept as far from the picture as possible. Attempts to manage fall-out in an all-in-the-family fashion. If it can be demonstrated that the activity was a condoned operation, this could result in civil war.

ii. (U.K.) War between U.S. and U.K., implicating other Allied nations. The tension created here would open many previously sealed vaults pertaining to other foreign relations debacles (China, Middle-East). Much exposure.

iii. (Isreal) U.S. support of Isreali activities is withdrawn, Palestinians earn a bone. Isreali government earns world-wide scorn, more attention is devoted to the Isreali issues perptaining to civil rights and humane treatment. Wholesale U.S. endorsement of Isreali political stances is retracted.

iv. (Osama bin Laden) Civil liberties in U.S. are restriced ; requests are made for other allied nations to follow suit. Airports are secured as never before, and encryption falls under intense scrutiny. Likely a plethora of new anti-terrorism bills and measures, perhaps even another agency. (Because Osami bin Laden's M.O. involves airplanes and encryption.)

So, while it's least likely that Osama bin Laden has the resources to execute an operation of this scope, it is most likely that his group will receive the brunt of suspicion. Both from a consequence point of view (the executive branch will select the outcome that involves the better face for the US, the smallest amount of strife, and the smallest piece of 'exposed underbelly'.)

I know, it's really unfounded shit.
 
 
Ganesh
09:22 / 12.09.01
I'm still a little shellshocked for this thread; no matter how many times they show the footage of the jet hitting the tower, it's still mesmerising - and the footage of those people waving/jumping from the building is heartbreaking. I'll gather my thoughts and post a proper response later.

Some first impressions:

I'm not sure I understand what's meant by 'resources' here. Are they talking the guns, knives and pilot skills, or the organisational ability, or what? I don't see how all the possible terrorist groups in the world can be narrowed down quite as easily.

I've heard various 'percentages of certainty' that Osama bin Laden is behind it and, again, they don't seem to have explained the 'hard evidence'. As far as I can see, the suicide element is the only reason they're ruling out 'homegrown' terrorists.

An elusive Satan is required. Whether or not he's behind the attack, I think bin Laden will fit the bill.
 
 
Fist Fun
09:22 / 12.09.01
I wonder what the immediate fallout will be?
Different views have been bandied about here and elsewhere. Is "war good for the economy"? Will we see shares in defence companies rocket as they secure more and more defence contracts? Will Bush and congress throw money that anything that involves defence (Star Wars, etc)? How will the spending affect other areas of the budget? How will this affect nuclear disarmament?
Will it be bad for the economy? Could this be the start of worldwide recession? Why?
Whatever happens this is going to mark history forever, but the scale of retaliation and the reaction of America and the world will determine how deep the mark goes. This could be the start of something bigger.
 
 
Mercury
09:22 / 12.09.01
Ok, this will be a big confusion, several points, not in order:

1. I said on another thread, "war" is different than "crime". Bush hasn't mentioned "war", the media have shouted "war" and the US Attorney General seemed to me the most moderate and inetlligent one: this is a crime and they will be brought to Justice. "War" implies a nation, state, as an enemy. Individuals or groups can't declarate war, they're criminals. The key here is, i think, territory, geography. When you're at war, your enemy is fixed, identified, it's a country, a region. When it comes to terrorism, where is the enemy, who do we attack?

2) I was looking for some comment from the Intellectual Barbelithians on this under a critical theory view point: is this the final jump into hyperreal, or is this reality scoring in our face saying "death is real"? I confess there were times yesterday I felt i had gone into some of the comics i read and other times i felt "that's it, no hollywood, no spectacle, there are people in the world whose ideology makes them do this!"

3. Why New York, why the WTC? The obvious answers are: symbolic, huge, easy to ram a plane into, filled with people, highly visible to the media, and of course what goes on inside - a trade center. It's interesting cause they struck two things and not one (i'm not talking about the towers). "America" as an idea has 2 representations: the "ideal" America, freedom, democracy, the flag, the ideology, etc.; and corporate America. Corporate America is not very keen on ideologies, it works on money and the only ideology it likes is capitalist laissez faire. The WTC was a place that by its nature, by its imponence, by its city, represented both these Americas.

4.This is the beginning of something. If i was fatalistic, I'd say 2012 began yesterday. I really don't know, but I'm sure of something: the perpetrators did change the world. The repercussions of this will be enormous, it's not just the retaliations and all that (althought that will be very real), we have new symbols engraved in our collective psyche, everyone has an image of a dark plane like a huge black bird of vengenace ramming into a building and demolishing it. Americans once again will be the cauldron for cultural change and symbolic expression, we will notice this day in cultural and intellectual outputs for years.

...And all this during W.'s administration.

- Mercury
 
 
Regrettable Juvenilia
09:22 / 12.09.01
Apparently the Taleban has offered to extradite Bin Laden. See here.
 
 
Saveloy
09:22 / 12.09.01
Ganesh:

"I'm not sure I understand what's meant by 'resources' here. Are they talking the guns, knives and pilot skills, or the organisational ability, or what? I don't see how all the possible terrorist groups in the world can be narrowed down quite as easily."

Yes, I wonder that too. Everyone has been talking about this requiring huge resources, but surely all it required was - at minimum - a handful of operatives per plane (probably, though not neccessarily trained in the fundamentals of steering an already airborne aircraft for a few seconds) and a bunch of knives. Plus knowledge of the timetables of United and American airlines, and knowledge that their security is none too tight.

Are people talking about the resources required to organise it and keep it secret?
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
09:22 / 12.09.01
Point of fact: MI5 are the Security Service. MI6 is our Secret Intelligence Service, and there are several other agencies operating under other hats (the SAS) who would theoretically be able to pull something like this off.

But everyone keeps emphasising how hard this would be to do - even though, by some accounts, it requires no guns or explosives, no trained pilots (you get the airline pilot to fly you to your destination and then take control of the plane, which flies 'intuitively' according to one pilot).

The two ingredients which make this group special are resolve and coordination, neither very high-tech.

I ask myself whether, whatever the facts, the emphasis on the difficulty of this action is made to mask the fact that it was horrible easy, given those two ingredients, and that the methodology tells us almost nothing about those responsible.
 
 
Frances Farmer
14:37 / 12.09.01
Both of which, however, do require some sophistication. I think a good point brought up often in this thread has been that 'sophistication' need not be a measure of technilogical advance.

Nick - thanks for the clarification on U.K. intelligence services.

When the term 'resources' is used in this context, I think we've got a few major contributing factors.

1. Dedication. These people boarded a passenger jet with makeshift cutting weapons (cardboard box-cutters, from all reports) and proceeded to execute an operation requiring a willingness to die for their cause.

2. Technical Knowledge. These people not only knew how to fly a plane (And I don't care how intuitive they say it is, it requires some training and knowledge to do this sort of thing), they knew how to navigate a plane (they were sufficiently far away from their final destinations when the hijacking occured). Sure, they could've coerced the pilot to get them near and then taken control, but reguardless, it requires some skill. Now, that doesn't mean six years of aviation school - but look at it this way. What's the probability that these individuals were guessing their way through the cockpit and were successful through 75% of their attempts, the only failure due to unexpected resistance from the crew?

3. Contingency. I don't think this operation would've been executed in the first place if they didn't know how to disable the cockpit voice recorder along with the black box. These folks likely stole two Boeings from similar lines (757 & 767) because they had specific knowledge of the model and they had specific knowledge of the average crew complement on such a flight.

4. Coordination. Believe it or not, coordinating four such hijackings is no simple matter. To act as if it's no big deal is to ignore the organizational nightmare involved in creating a large-scale event such as this. I have no doubt that this group is well-funded, perhaps government-sponsored. Why not? What's the probability that these were random Anarcho-terrorists who had just had enough? What's the probability that these were McVeigh clones? Jesus. I don't know. I have no idea. But if I don't speculate, my head's going to explode. I'm scared, and this is my only means for compensating for my impotency. I apologize for exposing you all to it.

Nonetheless, I think this is a tricky situation with a lot of twists.

Ganesh - I agree about narrowing this down. My list of possibilities, like anyone else's, is utterly preposterous. On the BBC last night, a gentleman made a compelling point. The investigation, and determining with any sense of certainty the guilty parties, is going to be too lengthy for the US to effectively respond. The US will therefore likely respond based on circumstantial evidence. It's going to be handled far more like a wartime politics issue than a criminal trial issue.

Nick, you've made good points ; but there's a lot that goes unmentioned. This is complicated, primarily because nobody noticed. Acts like this are planned on a semi-regular basis. The intelligence community generally snags somebody like this two or three times a year. What differentiates this group include their resolve, sure - but their ability to keep their mouth's shut is simply eerie, but more unusual than they're receiving credit for.

I want to apologize for launching into analysis mode almost immediately after receiving the news. I mention above why that is. I know this is cold. I just don't know what else to do. I spent an hour crying in front of the television last night.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
15:35 / 12.09.01
No one noticed? Or no one heard the warnings?

But in any case, if no one noticed, that could be because very few people knew.

And I did wonder loud last night whether everyone involved was already dead - killed in the actions themselves.

Looks as if that's not the case.
 
  
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