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Ahmadinejad won.

 
 
bacon
01:21 / 20.06.09
but i can't find the raw election results data from the guardian council. there were four (maybe more) contenders. i can only find numbers on two. but if the reformers split the vote, and the poor and pious voted populist, then he won.
 
 
elene
20:14 / 22.06.09
Hi bacon,

indeed, Ahmadinejad may very well have won fairly, but we'll never know for sure, and it hardly matters anymore now. As in July 1999, the leaders of the reformists have withdrawn from the conflict and the few thousand people really committed to a fight are left facing the police and paramilitaries on their own. Enough of them were beaten up and arrested Saturday night to put an end to it for another ten years, I expect.

What do you think this is all about? I think, Ahmadinejad upset some of the Mullah's constituencies in his appealing to the poor, and therefore they had to weaken him with these election fraud allegations and the ensuing unrest. They would have liked him gone altogether, but they can at least hope he's been reined in a little. Then there's the issue of Khamenei's successor, but I've no idea what role that played in these events, if any. And, of course, there's the desire of the West for regime change in Iran, which our MI6 men at the Beeb have tried so hard to promote in recent weeks.

Oh well!
 
 
HCE
01:38 / 26.06.09
What makes you think it is possible he may have won fairly? You may have a source I haven't seen?
 
 
elene
07:00 / 26.06.09
I haven’t seen any solid evidence of Ahmadinejad’s not having won fairly. No one has come forward claiming to have witnessed any fraudulant activity, such as ballot-box stuffing. In fact, the only evidence of fraud I’ve seen is a marked deviation from a statistical model in the case of Karroubi’s results (reported here).
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
10:23 / 26.06.09
In the interests of ONLY NICE THINGS happening here, I have to point out that bacon is not going to have anything to support this. He likes to make statements about the Middle East and Iran, and we should be nice to him about it, but it's not going to be a conversation.
 
 
elene
14:30 / 26.06.09
No worry, ONLY NICE THINGS.
 
  
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