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David Miliband V Gordon Brown.

18:33 / 26.03.07

After an admittedly fairly sketchy article in yesterday's Observer, it appears Tony Blair thinks David Miliband "could" be his successor. He doesn't seem to have gone as far as saying "should" yet, but presumably he might do, if Miliband was to declare himself as a candidate.

So, in what would be an extremely risky move (pretty much uniquely in today's political landscape, Gordon Brown is a genuinely frightening man) but also a very funny one, if he managed to pull it off, should Miliband throw his hat in the ring? And will he? On a number of levels, he might be better advised to wait five years (at forty one he's older than David Cameron, but he looks a lot younger, and also a little like Beaker from 'The Muppet Show' - a few more grey hairs and pronounced worry lines would definitely add gravitas) but on the other hand, at least according to one possible Blairite analysis of the situation, half a decade of Brown might well make Labour unelectable. And to be opposed at this point by a serious candidate could potentially drive Gordon into a bad place emotionally, to the point where he made serious errors in terms of his public profile.

I hope Miliband does run - it would be terribly entertaining, and I think he might win, but then again, I haven't voted Labour in the past, and really wouldn't do these days.

So, opinions?

18:38 / 26.03.07

Hahahahahahaha.... *wipes tear from eye* ...hahaha! That would be pretty funny. David versus Goliath, does Gordon look bothered?

18:43 / 26.03.07

...the environment secretary has repeatedly insisted he will not run for the leadership.

Ah well. Perhaps he's waiting for next time.

19:33 / 26.03.07

The above link seems to be from a couple of weeks ago though, Mr Q ('last updated 12th March') before Tony came out equivocally in David's support, so I'm still optimistic.

It would, however, be excellent if Charles 'nil points' Clarke decided to put his best foot forward too.

lord henry strikes back

20:03 / 26.03.07

The answer, in my opinion, to both of the questions in this thread is a tentative yes.

Miliband is the only person I can think of that could defeat Brown. For this to happen there would need to be two elements: 1) it would have to become a two horse race very early on, any third candidate will strip votes away from Miliband much faster than from Prince Regent Brown. 2) Brown would have to screw up in public, this is still his race to lose.

In any event I don't think he will run. Leader of the opposition is not the job he wants. A Brown coronation will turn the public further against him and hand the next election to the Tories. Equally, a divisive leadership battle will turn the public against Labour and hand the next election to the Tories. Miliband will want to keep his powder dry, sweep to power in around 2011 and smash Cameron after 4 years of the gloss rubbing off.

The only risk that Miliband runs by not standing is that a third rate minister appears to give Brown the illusion of a challenge and yet the whole affair not descending into a bitch fight. If that happens then there is a risk of Brown winning the next election, losing he following one, and the party not being electable until Miliband is collecting his free bus pass.

This, however, is unlikely and if Mili is playing the odds he will stay well clear this time around.

22:44 / 26.03.07

Hm. I suppose it depends on what Miliband and his advisors (including Tony at this point !!!?! Well it seems so ...) think is likely to be the outcome of the next general election. At the moment, I'd be inclined to put money on Brown as Labour leader to win, assuming he had the sense to put enough distance between himself and the Blair legacy over, say, Iraq. But for a Blairite, that would presumably seem like a recipe for disaster at the election after next, possibly one so extreme that it made Labour unelectable for next two following, at which point Miliband's career would arguably be something of a busted flush.

On the other hand, if a Cameron win seems inevitable (which I don't think it is) Miliband would be clearly be better off staying out of the whole thing.

I just wonder how solid Gordon's support base would turn out to be if there was another serious contender involved. I suspect a lot of it might evaporate, given what would pretty much inevitably to be a far more dictatorial leadership style than even Mr Tony's, because there wouldn't be anyone to play Gordon to the prime minister, as it were. Dinners with Kylie aside, is anyone under any illusions as to how a Brown-led Labour party would be run, except with a fist of iron? So what'd be the point of being an MP really, never mind a cabinet minister, in that set of circumstances? Effectively employed in just rubber-stamping the monster's policies?

All of which must be weighing fairly heavily on Miliband's mind at the moment.

00:02 / 27.03.07

The above link seems to be from a couple of weeks ago

Ah yes, I notice in the commentary they say Blair's outright support might be the only thing to change his mind. I still think it's laughable though, it's like Tony will happily sabotage the party's chances if it means foiling GB's plans. We'll see I suppose.

Tryphena Absent

09:01 / 27.03.07

it's like Tony will happily sabotage the party's chances if it means foiling GB's plans.

Sorry is that in question?

I think we need to face facts: Tony's a brilliant politician, the best actually and there's a good chance he could get Miliband elected (and to government) if he manouvred enough. He hasn't managed to destroy the Labour party effectively and they've been in power for quite a while. The whips have done their jobs well, despite the party history they've kept Labour voting in line with the government. Miliband is very like Blair, he has the same manner about him and he can convince anyone that he's trustworthy if they 1)don't understand the subject or 2)know the subject too well and thus think no one else understands it properly. He really could win. Here's hoping he doesn't stand.

10:30 / 27.03.07

B-but the look on Gordon's face if David did do, and won, would be, as the ad say, priceless.

Although on the other hand, the thought of an enraged Brown in Number 10 by only a narrow margin, and in the absence of the coronation he's presumably now expecting, does seem fairly terrifying.

Tryphena Absent

11:13 / 27.03.07

Yet also hilarious. I can't claim the whole thing doesn't strike me as hilarious.

lord henry strikes back

17:29 / 27.03.07

Oh, don't get me wrong. The look on the oh-so-long-suffering Brown's face as he concedes the leadership race to Miliband (or anyone else) would be the best political head shot since Portillo lost Kenstington & Chelsea. Genuinely priceless.

The other thing that I would like to throw out there is (and I don't want to derail the thread but I do want to mention this) with the leadership race looming I'm suddenly really feeling the absence of Robin Cook. Not a spotless minister I accept but (at least in my opinion) the best minister of this three term government. And he really could have been a contender (Charlie). He could have counted on the left from the get go, but he had a certain amount of centrist appeal as well. Ah, the possibilities...

Also, just to get back on topic a bit: will it make that much difference whether David or Gordon is next to sit in the big chair? I give Mili a better chance of beating Cameron, so in that sense yes, but apart from that? It's a bit like Jack Nicholson and Christian Slater. One's older and has worked on more projects, the other's younger and still slightly sexy, nonetheless you could easily cast them as older and younger versions of the same person in some crazed biopic (maybe Castro: a life on the left).

17:46 / 27.03.07

"Robin Cook the baddest out of all of them, Robin Cook the only man who hold his head above the system..." (DJ Rubbish, Action)

Nina- I was thinking Tony would rather see Dave and Gordon fight it out and thus wreck the party and lose to the tories than see Brown in number 10. Imagine the look on Brown's face if he lost to Milibanili and then they all lost power. Hahahaha...

00:24 / 28.03.07

'Well you see Gordon, I did tell you what was likely to happen, didn't I? I mean you can't say I didn't, can you?And you didn't listen, did you? No, you didn't. And now the Tories are in power. What was the one thing we always said should never happen? And now it has ...' etc.

Glenn Close But No Cigar

21:37 / 31.03.07

News
has only just broken on the deleterious effect Brown's scrapping of dividend tax in his very first budget in '97 will have on pensions, but it's hard not to imagine this being very damaging, especially given that his whole stall depends on his record as Chancellor, and the "What if Gord had come out top in the Granita crap shoot" fantasy. Looks like it may be bad for Ed Balls too.

Does this mean that Cameron, by calling for an independent enquiry into this mess (and possible cover up, detailed in the link above) has actually given Milliband an in? And if this ends up not only discrediting Brown, but Balls too, and Milly runs and wins, who might be appointed chancellor in his cabinet?

Me, I'm just a little disappointed that we might not ever get to talk about the 'Brown Balls era'...

lord henry strikes back

18:38 / 02.04.07

Balls is still unknown enough in the general public to hide behind Brown and let him take the hit. I don't think he would have moved straight into No 11 under Gordy anyway. He would have got a cabinet post but at this point I think Education or Environment would have been the highest he could have hoped for. Chances are he could get the same under Mili so I don't think it's a big loss for him.

The Blairite/Brownnite split is so fundamental in the party now that whichever side the new leader comes from they will have to have a few big hitters from the other side in powerful posts to stop the party turning on them.

That said, this could turn out to be a big hit on Brown. It will be interesting to see if his inner circle (are there any images more unpleasant than Brown's 'inner circle'?) start to distance themselves from him and play a wait-and-see game. That's the main thing that would give Miliband an in.

19:14 / 02.04.07

I suppose a lot depends on what the press wants to make of all this. Having not read the papers today, admittedly, I can see Brown being given something of a free pass at the moment, just because, even though it's hardly rocket science, it still seems a bit too complicated as an issue to be ideal headline material. Unless, that is, there's a real desire to try and provoke Miliband into standing, which pretty clearly would sell copies.

I'm not sure if anyone in the Brown inner crcle would dare desert him now though. And even outside of that, seeing as it's not that clear what a Brown leadership would look like
yet, it would take a brave MP, or one that just genuinely, quietly loathes the frugal Fifer to say too much at this stage, in terms of expressing support for a Miliband challenge.

But Gordon was foolish not to invite David into his inner circle recently, apparently on the basis that David should have to ask, so ...