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Still to look at the stuff in your links, invix, but- for a starter:
From what I know- quantum computing would supply the necessary leap in processing power that, some believe, might be essential for machines to become self-aware. However, the central issue in the feasibility of AI is really algorithms rather than hardware.
But putting aside the question of software and 'how' to approach the task of AI- there's the question of how much processing power or computer hardware is needed to approximate a human brain- I think its still a hotly debated question. I’ve just been reading an essay talking about a conference held in 1992 (called ‘How We Will Build a Machine that Thinks’ )* in which a minority believed the largest 1992 computers were within three orders of magnitude of the power of the human brain (the best computers in 2002 are roughly six times better than the best of 1992).
But, basically, I don’t think computing power is the biggest problem. The guys designing silicon chips today are having a hard enough job doing sensible things with the complexity we already have.
For the next few years, the challenge – in the grand project which will, depending on what you believe, lead to something like AI - seems to be that hardware complexity is running far ahead of our ability to do sensible things with it. So it’s possible to use the space on a silicon chip to do beefier signal processing (much faster and more complex graphics or sound rendering, for instance), but the effort of designing more complex and ‘intelligent’ systems on a chip is currently floundering- there basically just isn’t design software sophisticated enough to let the techy guys exploit the complexity that’s possible with a silicon chip.
Which is kind of a roundabout way of saying that the problem of computing power- which quantum computing might well solve- is not the main one facing those trying to make AI happen.
* the essay is at http://www.ugcs.caltech.edu/~phoenix/vinge/vinge-sing.html
[ 06-02-2002: Message edited by: Meme Buggerer ]
[ 06-02-2002: Message edited by: Meme Buggerer ] |
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