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In favour of Imperium in Iraq?

 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
06:54 / 30.10.06
The US and UK are quite clearly looking for ways to get out of Iraq. Around forty thousand Iraqis are known to have died (Iraq Body Count) but the actual civilian cost is certainly higher (British Medical Journal Lancet estimates 100,000 civilians killed). Twenty thousand US soldiers have been injured and three thousand killed (Antiwar.com). Even the Bush administration is starting to acknowledge that this is becoming a Vietnam-style quicksand into which the US military could sink. Iraq has become a battleground and a training ground for the Islamicist enemies of the developed northwest. Worse yet, while the war in Afghanistan successfully degraded Al Qaeda's ability to plan and carry out attacks, the war in Iraq is fuelling the terror effort. And after all this, the situation on the ground is worse, and human rights are still widely abused in Iraq; torture is said to be more prevalent now than it was under Saddam Hussein.

All in all, not a great picture.

So naturally - because the midterms are coming up in the states and the leadership contest is looming here, and because no one wants to be associated with a cockup, and because if you can't quit when you're ahead, you can at least quit before you get more behind, the US and UK are talking about leaving. I can't help but be reminded of 1947 (not that I was alive then, but historically speaking...)

One major difference is that in 1947, you couldn't re-export violence if you lived in India. Partition played out across the India/Pakistan border and inside the two new nations, and none of it came home to roost in London. That won't be the case today; abandoning Iraq won't get us off the terror hook.

I hate it that we went in. I was against it then, and I still wish it hadn't happened. I believe it was a politically and personally motivated catastrophe, leveraged on cooked-up evidence and weak argument.

However...

Now, we're there. So maybe we have to stay. More than that; maybe the only way to fix this is by spending some serious effort over there. The US has been conducting Iraq as a budget war; fewer troops, more tech solutions, local help and outsourced interrogation. It's never going to work. There are other, more traditional models, however - the Roman empire, and the British one. Maybe, instead of pretending this wasn't an imperial oil-grab, we should acknowledge the social heritage of the invasion and get on with doing it right.

Does Iraq need its own Steel Frame? Is the only ethical thing to do, having ripped this country apart (never mind that we also installed Hussein in the first place) to go in with a great deal of money, and impose our will - since that's what we're trying to do from a distance?

Should we be talking, instead of withdrawal, about total committal? It would unquestionably lead to more deaths. On the other hand, it might lead to fewer than our departure. Of course, many of those deaths would be ours. But maybe that's the only currency with which we can buy back a hope of having done any good. I don't relish the idea of staying, and I don't miss the Empire. But maybe we forfeited the choice when we went in.

For discussion.
 
 
Phex: Dorset Doom
09:51 / 30.10.06
Well, the morality here is pretty basic: if you make a mess, you clean it up. Meaning: making sure there's clean water, a steady power supply, modern hospitals, police on the streets, jobs, schools. Bread and circuses if needs be, or more likely Starbucks and McDonalds. That's how the Coalition will win in Iraq, by sending a message to the Iraqi people that wherever the eeval occupying crusader imperialist infidels go things get better, and in places under insurgent control things get worse.
There's nothing 'imperial' about it, there's no imposition of America's will in making sure electricity runs for more than an hour each day.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
10:09 / 30.10.06
There's nothing 'imperial' about it, there's no imposition of America's will in making sure electricity runs for more than an hour each day.

Ah. Perhaps I wasn't clear. What if the only way to achieve these things is to enter an imperial mode? What if total occupation and statebuilding from the foundations is the only way? And I'm not necessarily talking about an American Imperium here - the European powers have more experience in this kind of thing. Maybe it should be them.

Barack Obama said on The Daily Show that "we can't replace the Revolutionary Guard of Saddam Hussein in holding this country together"; what I'm suggesting is that the only way to hold Iraq together is with an Imperial, military presence capable of policing the whole country at a grassroots level; further, that that cannot come from Iraq, and therefore must come from outside; and that since we don't want it to come from a Taliban-style Islamicist movement, it has to come from us.

Let me emphasise again; I hate this idea. I hate that we're there. I didn't want us to go there. But now that we're there, maybe we have to go all the way.
 
 
Hydra vs Leviathan
13:30 / 30.10.06
Well, the morality here is pretty basic: if you make a mess, you clean it up.

Actually, i don't think it is that basic. If your existence in a place is creating a "mess", then it isn't possible for you to "clean it up" - in fact, it can only be cleaned up if you get the fuck out of there and leave it alone.

For me this isn't about any percieved "moral responsibility to help the people of Iraq" (how fucking arrogant, paternalistic and patronising an attitude is that?), it's about the fact that, utterly regardless of whether the US/UK forces are currently doing more good or bad by being in Iraq, they have no right to be there in the first place. The state [in both senses of that word] of Iraq is simply none of their business.

Saying the UK/US forces should be doing the "stabilising" and "rebuilding" work in Iraq is IMO kind of like saying that a rapist should become his victim's trauma counsellor.

IMO, the only way that individual UK/US soldiers in Iraq can redeem themselves is by mutinying or going AWOL, and the army itself qua army cannot redeem itself any more than Al-Quaida can redeem itself qua terrorist organisation or a slave trader can redeem him/herself qua slave trader.

Sorting out the mess of Iraq (or Afghanistan, or any other country that's been invaded) is both the right and the duty only of the people of Iraq (or Afghanistan, etc) (unless they explicitly ask anyone else to help them with it). The concept of having a moral duty to "clean up the mess because "we" created it" is probably the most fucked up justification for staying in occupation of someone else's country i can think of (it's reminiscent of Gaiman's version of the Vertigo Hell as taken over by the angels), and utterly overlooks that the "cleaning up" actually is the mess in the first place...

All IMO of course, but i'm finding it incredibly hard to come up with any other possible libertarian position...
 
 
diz
14:25 / 30.10.06
For me this isn't about any percieved "moral responsibility to help the people of Iraq" (how fucking arrogant, paternalistic and patronising an attitude is that?)

Not very, from the approach that Nick is taking. There's a big difference between feeling a moral responsibility to invade a sovereign country to "liberate" it and recognizing that the invasion was a catastrophic mistake and feeling an obligation to make amends.

That said...

Saying the UK/US forces should be doing the "stabilising" and "rebuilding" work in Iraq is IMO kind of like saying that a rapist should become his victim's trauma counsellor.

Pretty much, yeah.

I think the US and the UK should feel a tremendous sense of responsibility for the current (abysmal) state of Iraq, and should try to do whatever they can to fix it. However, "whatever they can," in this case, is probably nothing, other than getting out of the situation.

It's fucked up, it's horribly fucked up, and the US and the UK would be getting off waaaay too easy if they left now. Furthermore, I am deeply uncomfortable with the idea that some people may cling to the idea that the war was the right thing to do, in a "declare victory and retreat" sort of way, partially because I lose more and more faith in humanity the more I am forced to confront the obstinate refusal of many of my countrymen to deal with anything resembling reality, and partially because there might very well be negative consequences for such an outcome. If they decide that this was, overall, a reasonably successful, if messy, venture, they might try to do it again, somewhere else, in the near future. Somewhere like Iran, or North Korea. On some level, a more drawn-out occupation, with a US body count that got bigger and bigger with no particular results, might dampen the appetite of the US voters for foreign adventurism and would significantly weaken the neocons' hold on political power, which might, long-term, save a hell of a lot of lives and do a lot to stablize the precarious global political situation.

However, though they (we) absolutely have a responsibility to fix the mess we've made, I don't think we actually have much ability to do so. Our presence perpetuates many of the problems Iraq currently faces, and does little to alleviate them.

That said...

unless they explicitly ask anyone else to help them with it

Who speaks for "they?"

The Iraqi government has, at various points, explicitly asked for the assistance of the US government. While it is debatable how well the government reflects the will of its people, it's not clear who else would have any kind of legitimate claim to better represent the will of the Iraqi people. The degree to which the people of Iraq constitute a unified "people" at all is also debatable

The common consensus is basically that the Iraqi authorities and most of the political and religious leaders don't really want the US to go. Once the US goes, it goes straight to all-out civil war, and there are a lot of people who want to avoid that, even at the cost of having to deal with American bullshit. There are also a lot of factions who would like more time to jockey for better position before the Americans pull out and the real game begins. It's also worth noting that the Iraqi government does not have the capacity to maintain even what little order exists in Iraq in the absence of American troops. Nor would it have any capacity to rebuild the shattered economy and infrastructure, problems for which most Iraqis currently blame the Americans. If the Americans were to leave, Iraqi leaders would be under tremendous pressure to restore electricity and public order, and they would be completely unable to deliver, because Iraq's infrastructure is pretty much fucked beyond repair at this point, and a government with no money and no real control of its own territory would be in no position to fix it. The Americans are basically a convenient lightning rod for popular resentments (justifiably so, since it is actually our fault), and no one wants to lose that.

In many senses, continuing the widely-hated American occupation is the lesser of two evils for many Iraqis, and for many more it's strategically advantageous for the time being. If and when we withdraw, the short-term result is going to see the civil war heating up, probably at great cost to the Iraqis themselves, and while the US troops can't help fix Iraq (despite the fact that they should feel morally obligated to do so), their departure will also fail to be helpful.

The simple fact of the matter is that there is no "right" solution. Both options are pretty much equally horrible for everyone involved, especially the Iraqis, which, of course, is why it was such a godawful idea in the first place. Iraq is essentially FUBARed in the short term, and it's likely to get much, much worse before it gets better whether the Americans are there or not.

and utterly overlooks that the "cleaning up" actually is the mess in the first place...

No, it's not. The "mess" is the total devestation of the infrastructure as caused by the years of sanctions and the brutal American bombing and invasion, coupled with the power vacuum caused by the collapse of the dictatorship as it intersects with the complicated historical rivalries between different ethnic and religious factions within the country and the unequal distribution of natural resources (oil) within those territories.

The occupation is not the problem. The cumulative and overlapping effects of the decades of the (formerly US-backed) dictatorship, the sanctions, and the bombing/invasion are the problem, all of which are unquestionably our fault, but also unquestionably outside our power to fix, rendering the question of whether we should fix it moot.

Iraq was fucked when Saddam Hussein came to power, and the fucking got compounded during his reign (and the Iran/Iraq war), then again during the sanctions in the 90s, and compunded further with the invasion, at which point it truly became fucked beyond anyone's capacity to either repair or, really, make much worse. At each stage of compounded fucking prior to 2003, we could have chosen courses of action which might have enabled the process of repair to begin, but we didn't, and in 2003 we passed the point of no return and very little that we did past that point matters much either way.
 
 
Phex: Dorset Doom
15:51 / 30.10.06
The occupation is not the problem.

Yes and no. We know that the war probably shouldn't have happened- while on paper it sounds like a good thing to replace a dictator with an elected government, in practice it rarely works out, if ever (on a side note, has anything like what was attempted in Iraq worked in the past? I really can't think of any time it has). In addition to the damage caused by the initial invasion there has been a low-level civil war going on, and I'm sure you know the rest.
Natty is right above when s/he says that the way the U.S has conducted its occupation has only made things worse- they have barely attempted to undo the damage they have done, and where Army engineers should be repairing infrastructure instead we have marines 'black-bagging' Iraqi civilians in the dead of night, sometimes raping and murdering them, and all the rest. They're approaching a large scale civil engineering problem from military perspective.
Leaving Iraq would not provide Iraqis with water, or electricity, or free elections, or security or any of the things they need right now or 'get us off the terror hook' as Nick says above, neither will 'staying the course' and hoping everything gets better. As always there is a middle path by which both sides can be satisfied.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
15:51 / 30.10.06
Natty,

If your existence in a place is creating a "mess", then it isn't possible for you to "clean it up" - in fact, it can only be cleaned up if you get the fuck out of there and leave it alone.

In practical terms, that's impossible. Short of walling Iraq off from the rest of the world, and deleting it from the maps, there is absolutely no way in which it can be 'left alone'. A few hundred years ago, maybe. Not now. Iraq qill continue to interact with the US and its allies. It will contine to be affected by the global economy, which is directly affected - for the moment, maybe even driven by - the US economy. American politics (or the politics of other nationgroups attempting to forge their own relationship with the US) will determine aid and economic conditions in Iraq. They will determine whether, for example, Iraq is allowed to protect its own local industries or make a profit on its own resources.

Short of a global revolution - which I submit is not imminent - Iraq and the US are intertwined. Iraq has oil - of the particular flavour American needs.

Saying the UK/US forces should be doing the "stabilising" and "rebuilding" work in Iraq is IMO kind of like saying that a rapist should become his victim's trauma counsellor.

I don't think that's a helpful analogy. By accident or design, it seems to carry the implication that I'm a bad person for suggesting this. I also don't know that it's credible to suggest that nations respond in the same way as individuals. Finally, I would point out to you that there are various historical examples of nations being reconstructed by the victorious enemy, the most striking being perhaps Japan.

the "cleaning up" actually is the mess in the first place...

Extending that perception one stage further, I would point out to you that there never was a moment when Iraq was an earthly paradise by modern standards. This is the situation as it stands. Yes, the US, the UK, and various other nations are implicated in the blame up to and above their eyeballs. Fine. The question then is how to make amends. If we could hand the mess over to disinterested parties, that would be great. Thing is, there aren't any. So the question becomes - even before we address issues of self-interest - what is the least bad thing we can do. Is it really leaving? I'm not sure.

i'm finding it incredibly hard to come up with any other possible libertarian position...

I would propose you come up with a position you think is right, and worry about whether it's Libertarian later.

diz,

Our presence perpetuates many of the problems Iraq currently faces, and does little to alleviate them.

Does our departure alleviate anything? Certainly, it means we have fewer troops in the line of fire. It means that we can claim the subsequent horrors aren't our fault - "oh, if we'd stayed, we might have been able to do something, but they so wanted us out..." The departure of troops before a functioning state exists in Iraq could lead to the institution of another 'strong' government practicing 'muscular' law. (Great! Neo-Baathism! So... we destroy your country, bomb your infrastructure, allow you to fragment along ethnic and religious lines, worsen the human rights situation, and then we turn you over to... a dictator! Yay, us!) It might mean full-blown civil war - there are strong precendents suggesting that. It will almost certainly not lead to a state in which - for example - women enjoy the fruits of secular education and work, and are treated equally. A failed-state solution, in which central authority exerts no power, implies a lack of centrally-organised infrastructure, and hence humanitarian crisis in the form of hunger and disease - even more so than is already happening. Warlordism seems plausible.... and so on.

Do we have a right to allow that, given that we created this situation? Are we really gonna say 'oh, right, well, this sucks, it's way harder than we thought, and you guys are all, like, totally tribal. So, y'know, we're gonna let you sort it out, because we goofed and we shouldn't be here. By the way, no, you can't come to our country to live, you're foreign and you take our jobs.'

I mean, clearly, that's not what we mean to say. But it looks a helluvalot like it.

Iraq is essentially FUBARed in the short term, and it's likely to get much, much worse before it gets better whether the Americans are there or not.

Well, that's the point I started from; there's definitely a rising tide of FUBAR. So our options are simple: get out before we drown in it, or try to build a dyke. My question is: do we owe Iraq the dyke? If they're doomed to civil war, do we owe it to them to fight it? If they have to have a dictator, do we owe it to them to assume the role directly rather than by proxy, so that we can have a dictator with a 'steel frame', a functioning and fairly just bureaucracy, rather than a self-serving kleptocrat?

2003 we passed the point of no return and very little that we did past that point matters much either way.

Oh. Well, that's depressing. Kinda lets us off the hook now, though. I mean, it's already over? We just draw a line and move on?

Ya think?
 
 
nighthawk
17:45 / 30.10.06
Hmmm. I'm having difficulty phrasing this post as I'm a little suspicious of the assumptions framing the thread, particularly the use of the collective 'we' with regard to British military intervention in Iraq, and the mention of 'moral responsibility'.

I can appreciate the line of thinking behind this approach - that the situation in Iraq is a) appalling; and b) largely brought about by the actions of states like the UK and the US. But I'm worried that talking about 'ethics' betrays a serious misconception about the way states function in the real world (I presume its the state that this 'we' refers to?). I can't help but think that for a state to have moral responsibility it must be capable of acting morally, and I don't see how that's straight-fowardly true. I mean, when has a state ever acted on moral grounds? Seriously? In itself that wouldn't rule out the possibility of an ethically-driven state - but then the behaviour of states seems so inextricably tied up with 'national interests' (which tends towards the interests of particular strata of a nation's population), and the dynamics of capitalism, that its very difficult to envisage a state transcending these limitations and becoming sensitive to 'moral responsibilities'.

I find this approach particularly worrying because it (unintentionally) lends credence to the idea of a continuing 'ethical foreign policy', particularly that there were solid moral grounds, or even solid moral intentions, behind e.g. the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. This is manifestly false. And I think its also false to say that, if the UK and US do stay in Iraq, they will do so from some sense of moral responsibility. I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb in suggesting that the primary aim in Iraq at the moment is to establish a liberal democracy stable enough for reliable circulation and return of capital. I mean, this is the basis of the neo-liberal thought espoused by those behind Bush, right? Wolfowitz and co. That stable capitalist states best secure the international interests of the US and, in theory, improve the native living standards. Regardless of whether they are right or wrong about this, the primary objective is to set up a capitalist democracy. Neo-cons equate this with 'liberation', so in a sense its true that their aim in invading Iraq was to liberate its population. But I hope its clear that this is very different from sensitivity to moral responsibilities? The thought is not 'lets clear up this mess we've made'; its 'lets create a stable capitalist state'. Sure, the neo-cons see a conenction between the two, but there's no idea of 'responsibility' or 'duty'.

If establishing such a state still looks feasible, the forces will stay. When they suceed, or if the expense and commitment required to meet this objective is too great, they will leave. Moral responsibility has absolutely nothing to do with any of it - the initial invasion, the continuing presence, the projected withdrawal - and it never did . I realise that posters to this thread are not neo-con hawks, but I'm worried that by even suggesting that there might be 'moral reasons' for staying in Iraq, we're helping to shore up the myth of an ethically-driven state. Again, I don't see how such a state is even possible, let alone contemporary.


Anyway, regardless of whether people agree with me, I wanted to query this from Natty Ra Jah:

IMO, the only way that individual UK/US soldiers in Iraq can redeem themselves is by mutinying or going AWOL

This makes me really uncomfortable. Not because I think we should all uncritically line up behind our troops; more because I'm aware that a career in the army is one of the only legitimate options for a lot of people in this country, and the idea that this makes them somehow morally bankrupt, in need of redemption, is really unhelpful.
 
 
Quantum
17:57 / 30.10.06
maybe the only way to fix this is by spending some serious effort over there. The US has been conducting Iraq as a budget war

I thought one of the main criticisms of the whole mess was that it was an excuse for US/UK contractors to get paid loads of cash by their governments and from oil revenue to rebuild the Iraqi infrastructure we bombed to dust? And that the billions spent rebuilding will go not to the local people who need jobs but to huge corrupt corporations; for example The Halliburton subsidiary that provides food, shelter and other logistics to U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan exploited federal regulations to hide details on its contract performance, according to a report released yesterday. (Baltimore Sun 28th Oct '06)
Halliburton are not renowned for their humanitarian efforts.

Here's some links;
The US Defense Department has awarded seven Iraq reconstruction contracts worth a total of about $130m (£72.3m) to consortia of US firms. (BBC March 2004)

Key rebuilding projects in Iraq are grinding to a halt because American money is running out and security has diverted funds intended for electricity, water and sanitation, according to US officials...Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress also said administrative bungling had played a part. Grauniad Sept '05

the vast bulk of reconstruction will be self financed from future oil revenues Grauniad April '03

On October 10, Iraq adopted an investment law that offers an accommodating regulatory environment for U.S. business. export.gov '06

Building a Foundation of Freedom rebuilding-iraq.net '06


My point being that as a money making exercise the whole thing seems to have worked rather well. Political rule is secondary in importance to profitability to the companies involved IMHO, and they're the ones on the ground. The security of the oil revenue is protected by the largest private army in the world, run by Tim Spicer, Britain's most notorious soldier of fortune (according to George Monbiot) so really the corporate interests are running things.

The US government have gone one step further and awarded another Spicer company, Aegis defense Services a lucrative $293 million contract to protect US Diplomats in Iraq. Spicer is now coordinating the 50 private military companies in Iraq, employing a total of 20,000 mercenaries. resist.org
 
 
Lurid Archive
18:14 / 30.10.06
A point of correction: The original Lancet study in 2004 investigated excess deaths and gave a confidence interval of which 100,000 was the midpoint, but a more recent study by the same people and also published in the Lancet puts the current midpoint estimate at 650,000. Obviously, as time goes on, more people die during a period of civil unrest/civil war.

As for this,

Does our departure alleviate anything?

Yes, it would alleviate Iraqi resentment at the imperialist forces in their country. The tone of this question is pretty dodgy, to be honest, since the presumption is that we, rather than the Iraqis, should be the ones to decide the fate of both Iraq and its people. Calling this position one that is informed by racist assumptions about the inability of Iraqis to self-govern is probably going a bit too far...but not by much.

If our responsibility is really so great - I agree that it is - there is nothing to stop us supporting democracy, moving troops out and paying substantial reparations. This isn't a process that need take a long time. The main problem is that we have no interest in a democratic Iraq, and no interest in providing resources that we don't control. But in that case, our moral case for staying collapses, and we should go. Our presence is aggravating some, and our good intentions are highly questionable.
 
 
Quantum
18:47 / 30.10.06
Five Democratic senators, led by Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, protested the Aegis contract on humanitarian grounds, urging the Pentagon to reconsider the deal in light of Spicer's background.
"Had the Army done a thorough review, it would have found that in 1997 Spicer was paid $36 million by the government of Papua New Guinea to suppress a rebellion. His arrival with seventy other mercenaries--most of them South African--prompted riots, and when the army learned that he was paid such an extravagant sum, it launched a coup and arrested Spicer, who was caught carrying $400,000 in cash. Spicer was kicked out of the country, but not before the scandal led to the resignation of its prime minister, Julian Chan, and the collapse of his government."

Mercenaries, not noted for their social conscience. Makes me think the states involved aren't thinking in terms of people or even politics.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
21:38 / 30.10.06
Calling this position one that is informed by racist assumptions about the inability of Iraqis to self-govern is probably going a bit too far...but not by much.

I disagree. I feel it goes too far by a wide margin.

To doubt Iraq's ability to govern itself and not descend into full blown civil war or lapse into another corrupt dictatorship (which may not be as bad as a civil war in the short term view, granted) is pretty rational, actually, especially in light of the historical precedents. Which, I believe, Nick mentioned. I really don't see why one would bring the issue of race into this particular part of the discussion.

If our responsibility is really so great - I agree that it is - there is nothing to stop us supporting democracy, moving troops out and paying substantial reparations.

Except the fact that a supportable democracy popping up in the midst of the utter chaos caused by the abrupt departure of US/UK forces is pretty fucking far from likely.

We could throw money at it--but throw it to whom? To do what? Give Iraqi-Leader X a blank check and a pat on the ass and say "go start a democracy in this war-torn nightmare"? I have a feeling that if anyone thought that plan had a decent chance of succeeding, the US would have gone for it in a heartbeat.

What I'm most curious about is this: what's to be done with the oil? Billions and billions and billions of dollars a year to be made, but who gets it? Who deserves it? If your answer is simply "the Iraqis", then I'm afraid you're not thinking very far ahead. Which Iraqis? Who deserves it the most? Who can possibly make that decision legitimately? That much money on the line can make anyone--be they Iraqi or American or fuckin' Martian--kinda crazy. Crazy enough to fight about it, certainly.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
21:53 / 30.10.06
Good Lord, man, you're right. Pray God that Iraq is never rocked by a war over control of its oil reserves.



Hang on...
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
22:00 / 30.10.06
Just sayin'. You know. Kinda curious about what's going to happen with that. Beyond "people will fight about it". Unless that's pretty much all anyone can say, in which case I'll accept it as an answer.
 
 
Lurid Archive
23:21 / 30.10.06
To doubt Iraq's ability to govern itself and not descend into full blown civil war or lapse into another corrupt dictatorship (which may not be as bad as a civil war in the short term view, granted) is pretty rational, actually, especially in light of the historical precedents.

And the failure to recognise that by invading we been doing worse is where it gets dodgy. We invaded the country on a WMD/humanitarian pretext, but have managed to kill far more people than Saddam did, though we take comfort in the fact that our torture centres probably aren't as bad as his were. We alienate a country which has now lapsed into civil war, and use that failure as a reason for our continued control of their resources? Because we can't trust them to control their own wealth, given they might do something crazy with it?

We could throw money at it--but throw it to whom? To do what? Give Iraqi-Leader X a blank check and a pat on the ass and say "go start a democracy in this war-torn nightmare"? I have a feeling that if anyone thought that plan had a decent chance of succeeding, the US would have gone for it in a heartbeat.

And here we differ by a great deal. I don't think the US is remotely interested in a democratic Iraq whose direction isn't pre-determined by a pro-US agenda. Why invade, after all, if you are just going to get another anti-US state? So, no, paying reparations won't "work", because the majority opinion in Iraq is pretty much contrary to the sort of democracy the US wants in place. Would reparations help in achieving stability? I don't know. But the presumption should be that this is up to the Iraqis to decide, not for us to decide for them.
 
 
diz
02:36 / 31.10.06
Phex

Natty is right above when s/he says that the way the U.S has conducted its occupation has only made things worse- they have barely attempted to undo the damage they have done, and where Army engineers should be repairing infrastructure instead we have marines 'black-bagging' Iraqi civilians in the dead of night, sometimes raping and murdering them, and all the rest. They're approaching a large scale civil engineering problem from military perspective.


You're presuming that the US military is actually capable of acting in any other capacity than the one it's been acting in. Yes, it has the Army Corps of Engineers* and the SeaBees and other theoretically very efficient civil engineering services, and as such the US military theoretically has resources which could be put to good use in this situation. However, the actual institution of the US military does not function in such a way that those services will be put to their ideal use. It's just not the leadership culture at the Pentagon or the DoD, and it's not really in the culture of the enlisted personnel either.

If you put the actual US military on the ground somewhere, especially somewhere where the population is mostly nonwhite, and especially somewhere where there's shooting going on, what you get is what you see in Iraq. Yes, theoretically, they could be building bridges or whatever, but that's never what's actually going to be what happens when the rubber hits the road. The US military is a hammer. You can't use it effectively to turn screws, even if it looks like those little claw things on the back might be effective if you just were to twist them right.

It's also worth noting that various insurgent groups have been very effective at sabotaging what paltry reconstruction efforts we've engaged in.

Leaving Iraq would not provide Iraqis with water, or electricity, or free elections, or security or any of the things they need right now or 'get us off the terror hook' as Nick says above, neither will 'staying the course' and hoping everything gets better. As always there is a middle path by which both sides can be satisfied.

I agree with the first part, and vehemently disagree with the second. If the US stays, we get more Abu Ghraib and Haditha. That is all we can be in this situation. If the US goes, we get the same things, except with Iraqi militia members in the starring role.

Nick,

Finally, I would point out to you that there are various historical examples of nations being reconstructed by the victorious enemy, the most striking being perhaps Japan.


Japan is not a good example to generalize from, nor is Germany. There are very specific historical situations and cultural issues that make the rebuilding of Japan and Germany after WW II unique events. They are the exceptions that prove the rule, in a sense.

I would propose you come up with a position you think is right, and worry about whether it's Libertarian later.

Heartily seconded.

The departure of troops before a functioning state exists in Iraq could lead to the institution of another 'strong' government practicing 'muscular' law. (Great! Neo-Baathism! So... we destroy your country, bomb your infrastructure, allow you to fragment along ethnic and religious lines, worsen the human rights situation, and then we turn you over to... a dictator! Yay, us!) It might mean full-blown civil war - there are strong precendents suggesting that. It will almost certainly not lead to a state in which - for example - women enjoy the fruits of secular education and work, and are treated equally.

I would submit that there is no course of action any given actor or any plausible alliance or coalition of actors can or will do which would lead to that outcome or anything like that outcome. That goal is impossible at this time and for the near future, possibly a generation or more. All parties are powerless at this juncture.

The best-case scenario I can envision looks something like this: a brief and incredibly bloody civil war splits Iraq into three parts. The Shiite south moves into the orbit of the resurgent Iranian theocracy, essentially becoming such a theocracy itself. Iraqi Kurdistan continues as it has been, and uses oil wealth to export terrorism into Kurdish territories in Turkey and elsewhere, which starts tipping Turkey back towards military dictatorship and away from the Euro-leaning democratic path it's been taking. The so-called Sunni Triangle becomes a bombed-out, poverty-stricken wasteland and a recruiting ground for terrorists.

It could be worse than that, it could be a lot worse than that, but I think that's the best case scenario we're likely to get.

Do we have a right to allow that, given that we created this situation?

You're presuming, falsely, that it's something we can choose to allow or not allow.

Are we really gonna say 'oh, right, well, this sucks, it's way harder than we thought, and you guys are all, like, totally tribal. So, y'know, we're gonna let you sort it out, because we goofed and we shouldn't be here. By the way, no, you can't come to our country to live, you're foreign and you take our jobs.'

Probably. Yes, that's depressing.

Well, that's the point I started from; there's definitely a rising tide of FUBAR. So our options are simple: get out before we drown in it, or try to build a dyke. My question is: do we owe Iraq the dyke?

I think we do owe Iraq the dyke, absolutely, but we do not actually, in practice, have the capacity to deliver it. It's a debt which we owe but which we cannot pay.

If they're doomed to civil war, do we owe it to them to fight it?

Do you think that would actually help? I'm not sure one way or the other, honestly, which is why I'm asking.

In any case, whose side would we fight on? Presumably the current government against any and all sectarian insurgencies, militias, and terrorist groups, thereby trying and probably failing to force multiparty multiethnic democracy on a group of people who don't actually want it.

If they have to have a dictator, do we owe it to them to assume the role directly rather than by proxy, so that we can have a dictator with a 'steel frame', a functioning and fairly just bureaucracy, rather than a self-serving kleptocrat?

I think it's a huge leap to presume that an American dictatorship in Iraq would be anything resembling "functioning" or "fairly just," or that it would be anything other than "a self-serving kleptocracy," in the service of Halliburton and American oil companies as opposed to a local strongman.

Oh. Well, that's depressing. Kinda lets us off the hook now, though. I mean, it's already over? We just draw a line and move on?

Ya think?


Honestly, yes, except for the letting us off the hook part. We're not off the hook, we just keep twisting on it helplessly the worse things in Iraq get.

Lurid Archive

Yes, it would alleviate Iraqi resentment at the imperialist forces in their country.


Would it actually improve the lives of the Iraqi civilian population? They would probably be happy to see us go, but I doubt they'd much like what moves into the vacuum we leave behind, either.

The tone of this question is pretty dodgy, to be honest, since the presumption is that we, rather than the Iraqis, should be the ones to decide the fate of both Iraq and its people.

It's not a presumption that we "should" be deciding Iraq's fate, it's the recognition that whether we "should" be deciding Iraq's fate or not, we are, or at least, we are deeply involved and powerful actors on the stage of Iraq whose actions at least theoretically have major consequences. Also, that we bear total responsibility for the trainwreck that is Iraq in 2006.

Calling this position one that is informed by racist assumptions about the inability of Iraqis to self-govern is probably going a bit too far...but not by much.

I'm with Tuna Ghost on this one. Iraq cannot self-govern effectively at this point, not because they're incompetent or inferior or culturally backwards (none of which are true), but because we've deprived them by force of the necessary infrastructure with which to govern.

If our responsibility is really so great - I agree that it is - there is nothing to stop us supporting democracy, moving troops out and paying substantial reparations.

What do you mean by supporting democracy? What kind of support does democracy need in Iraq? Is it military and peacekeeping support? I suspect that it is, at least in part.

What kind of support does democracy actually have in Iraq? There was high voter turnout, but the people they voted for are not really pro-democracy. I don't believe that the Iraqi people** want an Iraqi democracy in the Western style. The Kurds want to be independent, the Shiites want an Islamic theocracy, and the Sunnis want to be in charge again. All of which would be fine, except that they're in conflict and no party has the ability to actually achieve their goals at this point, because we've destroyed all their infrastructure and governing institutions.

Finally, who would we pay reparations to? The government we installed by force, and have basically tweaked into a puppet regime which has little local support?

The main problem is that we have no interest in a democratic Iraq, and no interest in providing resources that we don't control.

This I will agree with. One of the problem with Nick's original post is that he's presuming "we" have good intentions "we" don't actually have.

Because we can't trust them to control their own wealth, given they might do something crazy with it?

Because there is no "them." Iraq was a colonial construction to begin with, and now it's totally fragmented. I would submit that there is no government which the majority of Iraqis actually want.

But the presumption should be that this is up to the Iraqis to decide, not for us to decide for them.

Again, who speaks for the Iraqis? Who do we recognize as legitimate?

* Leaving aside the issue of the New Orleans levees as a blot on their overall reputation for competence.

** Actually, I don't believe that there's a singular Iraqi people at all.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
07:10 / 31.10.06
Loooong post. Feel free to skip bits...

nighthawk:

I'm having difficulty phrasing this post as I'm a little suspicious of the assumptions framing the thread, particularly the use of the collective 'we'

Yeah, but, you know. This is the Switchboard. If we didn't make a few assumptions here, we'd never be able to talk about anything substantive. This is a massive question. I can't do more than spot-check my assumptions when I catch them standing on streetcorners muttering 'skonk'. Otherwise I'd just have to arrest myself and go straight to Paddington Green for a voluntary confession.

Regarding the 'we' of collective responsibility (or of decisionmaking): I don't think anyone living in a developed nation - not even a monk or a catatonic - can entirely escape blame for the actions of that nation's government. Burden of democracy, of living in the developed world, of profiting (even if you don't want to) from the advantages of trade and military force we enjoy. As to the 'we' of 'we should do X', that's obviously a fantasy - it's the academic's privilege to imagine what you would do if someone suddenly gave you the country to play with.

I can't help but think that for a state to have moral responsibility it must be capable of acting morally

You'll have to show me the disjunct. I think that's an entire career's worth of arguing ethics you could have just justifying that, not to mention the kind of sociological work you'd have to do on the actual mechanisms of state action. It's fascinating as a proposition, but it's an open question and I don't agree. Will you do me a favour and take as one of my many assumptions the notion that states are capable of acting morally in some way or other - either by design, or as an emergent behaviour?

The next point I would make is that this isn't entirely about moral action. There is a moral component, but there's also an issue of self-interest; what is the thing we can do which will have the best effect? If we can make Iraq function, we get big brownie points. If we quit now, we are not only invading assholes, we are failing, cowardly invading assholes. That's not an enviable rep.

I find this approach particularly worrying because it (unintentionally) lends credence to the idea of a continuing 'ethical foreign policy', particularly that there were solid moral grounds, or even solid moral intentions, behind e.g. the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan

Well, for background, I tend to hover some way between pacifism and occasionally allowing self-defense or anguished Humanitarian Intervention.

Parenthetically, I'm not comfortable with equating the two. In Afhganistan (where we have also screwed up in a completely different and actually far sadder way) the US did have an enemy, did succeed in seriously damaging that enemy, had been attacked by that enemy, and so on. If you believe in the right of states to defend themselves, you sort of have to accept that one. I don't know whether the response was the best available, but it was in much better shape than this disaster in Iraq, until some idiot decided that it would be better to pull resources from Kabul and concetrate on Saddam, who was completely unrelated to 9/11 and was, for all his other faults, emphatically not involved with Islamicist terror outfits.

As to whether this proposal lends strength to the 'ethical foreign policy' - which seems to be anything but - I don't know. The functional truth is that even this level of engagement is consuming the bulk of our collective military capacity and costing a great deal of money. I doubt we could involve ourselves in another one until this was done - and remember, I'm asking for greater involvement. So, you know. It would keep us off the streets.

I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb in suggesting that the primary aim in Iraq at the moment is to establish a liberal democracy stable enough for reliable circulation and return of capital.

I think that's waaaay more considered than the truth. I think the primary aim is to establish some form of semi-functional state and get the hell out before it falls down. I'm not even sure that would have been the aim if everything had gone perfectly; I suspect the primary objectives were to kick Saddam's ass for calling in a hit on George Snr., to erase the blot on the family name that was the failure to 'finish the job' last time around, and to secure access to Iraqi oil for the US/UK. If that last one meant putting in a Liberal Democratic government (which isn't the worst thing in the world, by the way), then fine, and that would be a kind of shop window for Regime Change. But basically, I think you're massively overstating the sophistication of the political impetus for this war.

As a footnote: like you, I'm uncomfortable with Natty's 'mutiny' contention, but again I think it's a Headshop question. See what I mean about this being a big issue? Sheesh. And you're just my first interlocutor...

Quintum:

I thought one of the main criticisms of the whole mess was that it was an excuse for US/UK contractors to get paid loads of cash by their governments and from oil revenue to rebuild the Iraqi infrastructure we bombed to dust?

My bad, I was unclear. I meant that Rumsfeld insisted on using smaller troop numbers for this war. Turns out you can wreck a country with a small force, but not police it.

Couldn't agree more about Halliburton, but again, while money is a good way of keeping score, I think this was in large part a resource war. And whatever the case there, I'm responding to the situation now.

Lurid:

thanks for the civilian casualty update - rather emphasises what I was saying as a jumping off point.

Yes, it would alleviate Iraqi resentment at the imperialist forces in their country.

Would it? I think it could compound the sense of betrayal. That would make twice in two wars that we've left them with a nightmare after promising to make it all okay. Plus, we've invaded, gotten caught torturing people, secured the oil, and gone home leaving them a civil war. That would piss me off. My suggestion is we stay, take the hit, and start to show that we are also capable of healing and rebuilding.

The tone of this question is pretty dodgy, to be honest, since the presumption is that we, rather than the Iraqis, should be the ones to decide the fate of both Iraq and its people. Calling this position one that is informed by racist assumptions about the inability of Iraqis to self-govern is probably going a bit too far...but not by much.

Think again. The presumption is that we cannot evade the decision. Whatever we do, we're making that choice for them - and incidentally, we have been since the sixties and before. They're living the consequences of our poltical timeline. It's not a question of them being racially incapable of governing themselves - although the neo-cons seem to be putting out the word that they're 'too tribal' to have a proper state as a reason to leave - but rather, that we have taken that possibility away. It's done. Giving it back is not simply a matter of going home.

I would propose to you that any people subjected to what the Iraqis have undergone might well be incapable of healing the damage without further violence and internal strife, possibly on a large scale, for some time. Destroy access to basic utilities, foster poaranoia and distrust for decades, introduce torture and gang mentalities etc. etc., and I imagine bloody Hampstead would turn 'tribal and violent'.

there is nothing to stop us supporting democracy, moving troops out and paying substantial reparations

Well, aside from the fact that we could not expect those reparations to reach the people and pay for utilities in the current climate, and the fact that a democratic election at this point would be lucky to produce an Iraqi Putin-figure.

our good intentions are highly questionable

That, at least, we can agree on.

We alienate a country which has now lapsed into civil war, and use that failure as a reason for our continued control of their resources?

Or, as I said, we acknowledge the heritage of imperium inherent in this situation, take the hit, and start conferring the advantages of empire and committal. We've been 'in' Iraq for decades. This is where we have a change to justify our presence.

Why invade, after all, if you are just going to get another anti-US state?

Good question. Doesn't seem to have slowed anyone down to this point.

the presumption should be that this is up to the Iraqis to decide, not for us to decide for them.

It should be. Currently, of course, they don't have any mechanisms to decide, and they are rapidly reaching a point where there won't be a country so much as a conflict-zone. Because of us.

Let me put it another way around: do the Iraqis possess some quality of self-organisation and self-awareness which we have been imepeding, which will allow them at this late date to form a cohesive and functional system? Are they capable, as I believe no other people are, of making decisions of this kind in the conditions they currently live with?

No? In which case, saying "it's up to them" is a cop-out. You're proposing to give them a freedom to decide which they cannot possibly deploy, in a situation where the absence of decision will cause their position to worsen. It's like giving them their oil back, on fire, so that they can try to get value from it without protective clothing.

diz:

All parties are powerless at this juncture.

Well, you may be right, in which case, yes, the only thing to do is get out. On the other hand, it's also possible that we might claw back some ground by making an attempt against impossible odds.

But if you are right, we live in a very dark place. I choose to see light, because I believe that the consequence of not doing so is that eventually you start to make some very bleak choices.

If they're doomed to civil war, do we owe it to them to fight it?

Do you think that would actually help? I'm not sure one way or the other, honestly, which is why I'm asking.


It's weird what forges bonds of respect between nations and peoples. I can't shake the idea - atavistic though it is - that if after years of posturing and finger-wagging we finally shed some blood in their land on their behalf, trying to do something for them, we might find friendship. The British relationship with the Afghans is still totally connected with the Empire. My brother was out there years ago, and was asked by a hilltribe chieftain whether the Queen remembered her Afghan subjects fondly, and when would she return? There are logics and narratives of war which override more rational considerations. I think there's a strong sense now that we're somehow cheating at the war-game. We might find common ground if we just played.

Yuck.

I think it's a huge leap to presume that an American dictatorship in Iraq would be anything resembling "functioning" or "fairly just," or that it would be anything other than "a self-serving kleptocracy," in the service of Halliburton and American oil companies as opposed to a local strongman.

That's true, of course, although it would depend ultimately on the order and how it was couched. And a full occupation would bring with it treaty obligations and requirements to adhere to the Rule Of Law and so on. It might be a start. If the system is so entirely corrupted that things would only be really bad, then again, we're in a dark place. But I believe there is a difference between the current Invasion Lite, which presumes that western troops are leaving soon and have no responsibility to the place, and a full-on occupation/imperium, where we're in for as long as it takes, and troops are obligated to the land itself. Psychological difference yielding behavioural change, perhaps.

Going to breakfast.
 
 
Phex: Dorset Doom
12:44 / 31.10.06
Here is a link to a .pdf on the tactics/strategy for winning (so to speak) a fourth-generational war, such as the one in Iraq without establishing an 'Imperium', leaving and hoping everything turns out okay (which always seems to be motivated more by wanting to see eeval corporate-fa$cist AmeriKKKa humbled than any actual problems solved) or handing over large-scale reconstruction to carpet-baggers.
Also, there's a linky here to a discussion with a roughly similar premise to this thread, started by this board's indisputably sexiest member.
 
 
Mr Tricks
20:35 / 31.10.06
(Great! Neo-Baathism! So... we destroy your country, bomb your infrastructure, allow you to fragment along ethnic and religious lines, worsen the human rights situation, and then we turn you over to... a dictator! Yay, us!)

From what I've heard (gotta look for a source) this, or something like it, is currently being pitched around the Whitehouse and Pentagon as a sort of exit stratigy. It's even prompted requests for support from the current Iraqi President, fearing a coup.

I guess it's a sort of "Face Saving" effort. Get U.S. troops out of the crosshairs and let a fresh Iraqi "strongman" come down hard on insurgents and the like, while remaining friendly with the US. It worked with Saddam for a decade or so last time.
 
 
diz
23:58 / 31.10.06
Nick:

But if you are right, we live in a very dark place.


Yeah, well, that's why I protested the war in the first place. We're not entitled to the possibility of a happy ending.

The decision to go to war in the first place leaves us in a position comparable to that of Germany after WWII (though obviously not on the same scale, let's be real). We've done something unbelievably shameful for which many, many people suffered, and it will hang over our heads forever as a blot on our collective honor, and we can only tiptoe around it like the elephant in the room, making meek apologies whenever anyone brings it up.

Of course, those of us in America who actually get that are few and far between. The rest of us are baffled at the supposed ingratitude and savagery of the Iraqi people.

I choose to see light, because I believe that the consequence of not doing so is that eventually you start to make some very bleak choices.

I'm sorry, but you're choosing to see light that just isn't there, and the fact that the dark may be too terrible to contemplate doesn't excuse us from our responsibility to comtemplate it, nor does it make making decisions based on deeply flawed assumptions any better of an idea.

It's weird what forges bonds of respect between nations and peoples. I can't shake the idea - atavistic though it is - that if after years of posturing and finger-wagging we finally shed some blood in their land on their behalf, trying to do something for them, we might find friendship.

I think that's totally atavistic, misguided, romantic, and naive. This is especially true considering that we'd theoretically be helping them fight other Iraqis.

That's true, of course, although it would depend ultimately on the order and how it was couched.

There's no way anything that would set up anything else would ever fly in Washington or with the oil companies.

And a full occupation would bring with it treaty obligations and requirements to adhere to the Rule Of Law and so on.

Do you seriously think anyone in Washington gives a flying fuck about treaty obligations or the Rule of Law, especially when we're talking about brown-skinned Muslim foreigners sitting on a pile of oil?

No one, no one, no one in the US government will risk the wrath of the Middle American voter by actually entering into any kind of foreign pact with any intent to honor it when it doesn't suit our needs. American voters demand the most ruthless realpolitik possible in foreign policy. Someone running on a platform of "Let's nuke the Arabs and steal their oil" would trounce someone who ran on a platform of "We have a solemn duty to make amends to the Iraqi people."

Americans think they saved the world in WW II, and we tried to help Vietnam, but the ingrates rejected us. From the American perspective, we've never done anything wrong ever, and if we've ever had a conflict with people outside our borders, it's their fault and we've selflessly sent our boys to die for other people's freedom, often only receiving slaps in the face in return. We think of ourselves as Christlike in the sense of being pure of heart and coming to save a world which rejects and torments us. For your scenario to work, Americans would need to feel like they fucked up in a sense that they don't feel like they have. They think that we tried to help, and we're failing because Muslims are crazy/savage/ungrateful or otherwise beyond redemption. Some people are now second-guessing the decision to "try to help" in the first place.

What we'd get if we were to build an imperial outpost in Iraq would not be a sense of obligation to the Iraqis, but a sense that they are obligated to us because of all the sacrifices we're making on their behalf.

It might be a start. If the system is so entirely corrupted that things would only be really bad, then again, we're in a dark place.

The American system is well beyond that corrupted. It is beyond contemplation. You would never be able to find enough honest, competent people with a decent sense of sincere obligation to the well-being of the Iraqi people to staff such a thing, and even if you could, it would never get any political support. Americans haven't felt real obligation to people beyond their own borders since Vietnam, at least.

And, no, they would never let anyone else do it if they couldn't.

Phex:

Here is a link to a .pdf on the tactics/strategy for winning (so to speak) a fourth-generational war


That's great, and if we had started things off on that foot three and a half years ago, we'd be in much better shape now. However, even thinking that the US military could be reformed, reorganized, and retrained into an institution that could function along those lines under the best of circumstances, much less now, in the middle of ongoing hostilities, seems to me to be absurdly optimistic. Even if we could, I think adopting that approach now with over 600,000 people dead and the country bombed into ruins would be too little, too late. How could anyone foster economic development in the current environment, much less the people who have created the current environment? How impossible would it be to motivate hardened guerillas into going home now?

This is a really good guide as to how to do this next time, if we ever find the need to do it again, but it's too late to be applied to the current situation, especially since the American military is convinced it already knows how to fight a counter-insurgency and it's become ingrained institutional wisdom that you do that by killing all the insurgents. The Pentagon is convinced, convinced that it could have and would have won Vietnam if the liberal pussies hadn't tied their hands with humanitarian concerns. Anyone telling them they need to focus on microcredit loans or anything like that is going to find their message falling on deaf ears, because for them to admit that they're doing anything wrong in Iraq, they would have to admit (retroactively) that they were doing the same things wrong in Vietnam, and that it's their fault, not the politicians, that we lost there. To say that the institution of the US military would have to collapse before they would admit that is not too much of an overstatement.

Mr Tricks

Nick,

(Great! Neo-Baathism! So... we destroy your country, bomb your infrastructure, allow you to fragment along ethnic and religious lines, worsen the human rights situation, and then we turn you over to... a dictator! Yay, us!)


From what I've heard (gotta look for a source) this, or something like it, is currently being pitched around the Whitehouse and Pentagon as a sort of exit stratigy. It's even prompted requests for support from the current Iraqi President, fearing a coup.

I guess it's a sort of "Face Saving" effort. Get U.S. troops out of the crosshairs and let a fresh Iraqi "strongman" come down hard on insurgents and the like, while remaining friendly with the US. It worked with Saddam for a decade or so last time.


So not surprising. The conventional wisdom will be that Arab culture and/or Islam makes people subhuman, violent cretins who need a strong hand to keep them in line. I've already heard an increase in otherwise intelligent people saying things like "I guess violence is the only thing those people understand" (already too common a sentiment). Democracy in the Middle East will be seen as something we tried to give them, but they didn't want (I mean, duh, they elected Hamas!).

I fear that some of our British posters really don't understand American culture, and are basing their positions on an overly-optimistic reading of it.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
06:56 / 01.11.06
you're choosing to see light that just isn't there, and the fact that the dark may be too terrible to contemplate doesn't excuse us

You misunderstand; I choose to be optimistic, because choices made in despair rapidly become savage. WMD are weapons of despair, for example. The failure of imagination - and hope.

if after years of posturing and finger-wagging we finally shed some blood in their land on their behalf, trying to do something for them, we might find friendship.

I think that's totally atavistic, misguided, romantic, and naive.


Notice that when you've said all that, you haven't said it's untrue. Humans, individually and culturally, are quite capable of being all those things. Not so long ago, it would have been mainstream in both the US and the UK. Now, it's a notion intellectuals view with scorn. On the other hand, the US, at least, has a strong tradition of mistrust of intellectuals.

This is especially true considering that we'd theoretically be helping them fight other Iraqis.

It didn't hurt in Afghanistan, India, or parts of Africa, when we were playing the territorial aggression game by the rules.

Do you seriously think anyone in Washington gives a flying fuck about treaty obligations or the Rule of Law, especially when we're talking about brown-skinned Muslim foreigners sitting on a pile of oil?

I think that realpolitik changes when you commit to a long stay. We've been saying "we're only here for now" since we arrived. As a consequence, we've acted with an eye to the short term.

From the American perspective, we've never done anything wrong ever

I had noticed. But that was the British perspective, too. We learned differently through the Imperial experience. One of the things that pisses off a lot of my American friends is the sense that Europeans view their country as a sort of gawky adolescent, but we can't help it. Your history and your sense of purpose and right are so familiar. Don't imagine your sins are any worse than ours were, or that your arrogance is any greater. Oh, and by the way, our Empire was bigger than yours is, and we had better outfits.
 
 
Lurid Archive
12:13 / 01.11.06
Would it? I think it could compound the sense of betrayal.

So in order not to compound the sense of betrayal, we should ignore the actual wishes of the Iraqis for us to leave, in the hope of establishing a peace that we haven't yet been successful in accomplishing. All the while, the evidence mounts that the actual situation is that we are, in fact, causing a great deal of harm, we have no solutions to it, and we remain in control of both Iraq and its resources.

You have to try really, really, hard to see the suggestion that we should stay as anything other than apologetics for the exploitation of another country.

Whatever we do, we're making that choice for them

This is Orwellian, Nick. If we stay and control the country, we are making the decision for them. But! If we do what the majority wants and give control of the country to the government we are also making the choice for them! Yes, yes, I know, we can't embrace facile solutions like actually letting the Iraqis rule their own country, and it is our duty to continue down the path of liberation and democracy contruction, as started by Bush and Blair.

But where do the Lancet figures factor into this? Is our incompetence or indifference to suffering there not a consideration?

I would propose to you that any people subjected to what the Iraqis have undergone might well be incapable of healing the damage without further violence and internal strife

Yes, almost certainly. But I would reply that the people least qualified to actively mend the situation are the people who caused it. Invaders do not have a duty to continue their invasion - this is absurd, and would be clearly so if we weren't making special exceptions for our own "benevolence".

The rest of what you say is much the same Nick. You ask, rhetorically, whether Iraqis have some capacity of self organisation we have been impeding on the assumption that we will agree that they don't. Only, I think that the presence of US/UK forces which regularly decide positions independent of the government is almost by definition an impediment to self organisation. You dismiss reparations because the Iraqis are likely to support someone we don't like, which is almost certainly true but rather undermines the implication that this is for the good of the Iraqis. Its for us, either our self esteem or our control of resources.

Out of interest, Nick and others, do you think that invading powers generally have a "duty" to continue an invasion, and control the invaded country until peace is established?
 
 
jentacular dreams
14:37 / 01.11.06
Lurid, I think the last question is somewhat loaded, given that the vast majority of violence in iraq is not against the occupying forces but sectarian aggression waged against civilians. As Nick said above:

-----------------------------------------------------------
"Destroy access to basic utilities, foster paranoia and distrust for decades, introduce torture and gang mentalities etc. etc., and I imagine bloody Hampstead would turn 'tribal and violent'."
-----------------------------------------------------------

If the majority of deaths had been related to battles between insurgents and occupying forces then you might be right, but bad as it is now, if we pull out while a power struggle is still taking place the country will descend into a bloodbath. We may be part of the problem, but we're far from being the whole of the problem.

Nick, at the same time, wouldn't shifting from our current policy to one of formal occupation would require a much harsher attitude to keep insurrections down? How much blood are we willing to spill to keep law and order? Rebuild the infrastructure all you like, people will still want their independence. To fully deny it would likely continue the guerrilla war against occupying forces, though it might put sunni, shia and kurd side by side (much as Saddam recently called for them to do). And can you imagine the political fallout internationally? Would a military intervention ever find favour again (even in a case such as rwanda)? How long before the other middle-eastern countries start piling on the pressure for us to get out? Would we really be preventing a power struggle, or merely postponing it to a day and age when there actually might be WMDs in iraq?

Sorry, I'm all questions and no answers today
'bees
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
16:14 / 01.11.06
we should ignore the actual wishes of the Iraqis for us to leave

Do they? It's certainly a comforting notion - we could just say 'ok, we're gone'. But it isn't the whole of the truth.

In November 2003, just 11 percent of Iraqis said they would feel “more safe” if Coalition forces left immediately; that number rose to 28 percent in January. Today [2004] 55 percent of Iraqis say they would feel safer if Coalition forces departed right away, even though the Bush administration has indicated they would stay on at least until the Iraqi elections in 2005. (Poll sample: 1,093 people selected randomly in six Iraqi cities and towns: Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Hillah, Diwaniyah and Baquba.) (link)

So, that poll would suggest you're right. But then there's another more recent one, commissioned by the BBC, which is more equivocal. While a majority do want US/UK forces out, it's not a huge one; more than that, it's a first priority for less than ten per cent, and mentioned in the top three by twenty eight per cent. By contrast, 'regaining public security' is top priority for fifty six per cent, and mentioned in the top three by eighty per cent. So what happens if you combine these results? What if the best hope for 'regaining public security' is an Imperium? (poll pdf - interesting reading)

(I'd also draw your attention to this chart, which suggests that over fifty per cent of Iraqis favour a 'single strong leader' while under thirty want a democracy; and this one suggesting that the most-trusted figures in Iraq are religious leaders, alongside the police and the army. One way or another, it doesn't look as if the people of Iraq are terribly interested in a democracy as we understand the term right now.)

Opinion in Iraq, I suspect, will follow any course which starts to show a chance at safety and normality.

This is Orwellian, Nick. If we stay and control the country, we are making the decision for them. But! If we do what the majority wants and give control of the country to the government we are also making the choice for them!

It's not Orwellian. It's just true and awful. I believe that our invasion was against international law; that it has destablised the region and created an increased terror threat; and that we have in many ways made the situation in Iraq worse in our efforts to remove from power a man we installed to suit our previous political agenda. We should never have gone in. However, we did. We took on the role of recreation by force. It's not finished. If we leave now, it's entirely possible we will have created a massive (more massive) humanitarian disaster and a failed state.

In other words, we're damned if we do, damned if we don't. So it's not about us, it's about them. What's the best we can offer?

A few reasons I can see for not staying:

If we stay, more of our soldiers will die than would otherwise. Possibly also more Iraqis, although that is unclear.

A declaration of Imperium, or anything like it, would further destabilise the region and give credibility to claims that we intend to annex Islamic nations and propogate Christianity or Atheism.

It would be cripplingly expensive; so much so that it might significantly damage the US and UK economies, with results we cannot begin to predict.

A few responses:

If we don't stay, and Iraq falls into civil war because of our premature departure, then more Iraqis will die. They will die in probably greater numbers, and instead of our citizens. We will effectively have purchased British and American lives with Iraqi ones at the usual ratio (1 Westerner = 10-200 Foreigners).

We have already invaded an arab nation. The damage is done. No one's going to hate us more for trying to fix the situation than they do for having created it. Our reputation is at an all-time low. If we stay, we can change that if we make the situation better in concrete ways.

It's entirely possible that investing heavily in the reconstruction of Iraq would yield economic, social, and political dividends which we sorely need.

And so on.

Is our incompetence or indifference to suffering there not a consideration?

Of course it is. But as I said, I believe part of that is a structural and psychological consequence of our contention that we're not staying. These are not our people. They're the defeated enemy. They're just these folks we're trying to sort out. They're like the employees of a company, and we're management consultants. Sure, you have to fire a few guys. It's for the good of the firm.

It's different if we accept that they're our guys. Empire cuts two ways. Empire Lite - what we have now - is about ownership of disposable people. The full version is not.

the people least qualified to actively mend the situation are the people who caused it

Possibly. What if they are the only people willing or able?

You ask, rhetorically, whether Iraqis have some capacity of self organisation we have been impeding on the assumption that we will agree that they don't.

Hmm. It seems I was unclear. There is a word missing from my post. 'Special capacity of self-organisation'. I was drawing on my previous point that under the circumstances the Iraqis endure, anyone will have trouble creating a functioning system.

I think that the presence of US/UK forces which regularly decide positions independent of the government is almost by definition an impediment to self organisation.

That is undoubtedly true. The problem is whether the removal of those impediments will result in an assumption of power by Iraqis, or a collapse into brigandage, fundamentalism, and warlordism, as in Afghanistan. I think it's an open question. I'm not persuaded that the latter option is in the interest of Iraqis - least of all those who are liberal, democratically minded people.

You dismiss reparations because the Iraqis are likely to support someone we don't like, which is almost certainly true but rather undermines the implication that this is for the good of the Iraqis.

Actually, I think I dismissed them because it seems likely they will end up in someone's bank account in the Bahamas, which is what happens to a lot of money that gets poured into failed and semi-failed states. But the question of whether something is in our interest isn't wholely devoid of value; we're a moderately democratic nation. And though we've been extremely ill-behaved in this matter, there are any number of countries which are routinely nastier. For all our faults, I'd rather not set us up for more trouble than we absolutely have to have on the international stage. And of course, I live here. I don't wish to be detonated on my way to the Chipping Sudbury Lawn Bowls tournament because we left Iraq in a mess and then tried to buy its people off.

Out of interest, Nick and others, do you think that invading powers generally have a "duty" to continue an invasion, and control the invaded country until peace is established?

Assuming for a moment that you intended this as a question, and not a smack in the face:

I think invading powers should piss off home before they invade, or before they wreck a nation. I think once you've flattened someone's home, you have obligations to build them a new one.

It's not an uncommon perception that invasion incurs responsibility; Article 50 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War specifically requires that 'the Occupying Power shall, with the cooperation of the national and local authorities, facilitate the proper working of all institutions devoted to the care and education of children.' Article 55 states that 'to the fullest extent of the means available to it the Occupying Power has the duty of ensuring the food and medical supplies of the population; it should, in particular, bring in the necessary foodstuffs, medical stores and other articles if the resources of the occupied territory are inadequate.' (link - Article 47 onwards deals with Occupation.)

Is it such a leap to suggest that an occupying power departing an occupied country leave it in such a state that these requirements will continue to be met after departure? To insist that the nation being reliquished should be capable of sustaining itself, rather than collapsing?

Relax, Lurid. I don't imagine we'll stay longer than another eighteen months. I doubt the electorate will put up with it. I don't think anyone's about to pronounce a British Mandate or a US Protectorate in Iraq. Nor am I convinced it would be a good thing. diz is most likely right that the whole project would be corrupted inside an hour. It would take an absolutely brilliant and iron-handed leader to push something like this through and make it work, and we simply haven't got one. S/He would need a dedicated and loyal staff and the total support of the electorate to beat the tendency to systemic corporate greed and so on. Even then, it might not be possible. It would be somewhat akin to gangbusting, only on an epic scale.

But that doesn't mean it's not worth contemplating, because the urge to 'just get out' is almost as pernicious. People will suffer because of our departure. Blair and Bush will claim that they went in and got out and it was all a success, and some people will believe it. It may mean civil war in Iraq, or something very like it. It might (although this is less likely) lead to partition or secession, in which case Kurdistan's existence will destabilise Turkey and mean that the West has an ally with access to gulf oil which is not an arab nation and whose pipeline out (if I recall the route correctly) goes through Israel, shoring up that relationship and possibly diminishing the chances of pressure being brought in relation to the Palestinian situation.

It's a mess. I just didn't want to let it go without talking about it.
 
 
Lurid Archive
17:32 / 01.11.06
Is it such a leap to suggest that an occupying power departing an occupied country leave it in such a state that these requirements will continue to be met after departure?

Yes, to be frank. It is a huge, absurd leap to imagine that a nation which has just waged a war of agression should retain control of the invaded country and its resources for the "good" of the occupied people.

The running assumption that we are entirely benevolent and that there is no way to help Iraqis except by our continued control of their country is pretty hard for me to accept. Objections to payment of reparations is spurious, since the problem you raise would be surmountable - in fact, is often an effect of supporting a dictator in return for influence - but is anyway irrelevant since there is no actual desire for rebuilding Iraq except as a client state.

And sure, I guess it does make sense that an invader's demands should be met. We won, after all, and there are plenty of dead Iraqis to prove it. But lets not confuse the rights of the victor with humanitarian concern. Because that - improbable as it sounded at the start and continues to sound to me now - is partly what got us here in the first place.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
18:52 / 01.11.06
I guess it does make sense that an invader's demands should be met. We won, after all, and there are plenty of dead Iraqis to prove it. But lets not confuse the rights of the victor with humanitarian concern. Because that - improbable as it sounded at the start and continues to sound to me now - is partly what got us here in the first place.

Lurid, please. That horse is dead. If there is anyone in the audience who does not yet believe that you are a more virtuous soul than I am, they're either asleep or a lost cause.

I don't believe it's an 'absurd' leap from responsibility during an occupation to responsibility for the same things during what comes immediately after. I don't see the exigencies of the situation the same way you do. I'm not an idiot because of that, or a wannabe tyrant. I'm putting a point of view which I recognise is unlikely to be well-received because I think it deserves a moment's consideration before we make the more obvious and vastly more comfortable choice to pull out. If you don't consider things like that, you miss things.

By all means, let's discuss it, but please stop waving your hands in the air and crying 'ogre, ogre'. It's boring.
 
 
Lurid Archive
19:54 / 01.11.06
I'm not an idiot because of that, or a wannabe tyrant.

Well, sure. And, analagously, one could argue that the supporters of the war weren't idiots or tyrants for supporting a humanitarian war, in order to topple an evil dictator, save lives and give freedom to the Iraqi people. But just because I can articulate the position, it doesn't mean I agree with it, nor do it give it very much respect, despite how sincerely it is, or was, held.

Also, this "more comfortable" line you have would have worked equally well against those against the war in the first place - I'm pretty sure it was.
 
 
Phex: Dorset Doom
19:56 / 01.11.06
Nick: Is it such a leap to suggest that an occupying power departing an occupied country leave it in such a state that these requirements will continue to be met after departure?

Lurid: Yes, to be frank. It is a huge, absurd leap to imagine that a nation which has just waged a war of aggression should retain control of the invaded country and its resources for the "good" of the occupied people.

The alternative would be what exactly? Depart immediately? If so Saddam would have gotten straight out of his spider-hole and back into his palace the day after victory was declared, massacred some Kurds for fighting alongside the Americans, then its back to business as usual until the next faux-invasion.

So far there seems to be three different ideas about the ideal next step for Iraq: Nick, in the post that started this thread would advocate 'total committal' of US troops, the removal of Iraqi autonomy (for now) and an 'Imperial' model of engagement- let's call this the 'Get Hard' approach. I, (and the writer of the article I linked to above) would want the US to change its tactics from trying to fight insurgent groups (except where absolutely necessary, such as where they are engaging in ethnic cleansing etc.) to rebuilding Iraqi infrastructure, fostering economic independence and acting in concordance with the Geneva conventions Nick quoted above- we'll call this the 'Get Busy' position.
So, to everyone who has disagreed with Nick and I's respective approaches here- Natty, diz, Lurid and anyone else- what is the third approach here and what do you think the effects of that approach would be?
 
 
diz
22:29 / 01.11.06
You misunderstand; I choose to be optimistic, because choices made in despair rapidly become savage. WMD are weapons of despair, for example. The failure of imagination - and hope.

So do choices made in misplaced optimism, and I would argue they are often worse. Mao didn't listen to those naysayers who said that his Second Five Year Plan would never be able to transform China overnight from an agricultural economy to an industrial one. He plowed on with the Great Leap Forward, and in a triumph of optimism over realism, managed to starve at least 20 million people to death.

Plus, there's the awful pendulum swing towards despair that you get when misplaced optimism runs up against reality, so you're going to end up where you're trying to avoid anyway. Nothing's worse than a disappointed romantic - the despair compounded by a sense of betrayal, which in these situations generally translates into mass graves, as the subject people are punished for not living up to the romantic idea the occupier had in his head.

Notice that when you've said all that, you haven't said it's untrue.

Just because I didn't specifically say it's untrue doesn't mean I believe it to be true. In fact, I believe it to be wildly untrue.

It didn't hurt in Afghanistan, India, or parts of Africa, when we were playing the territorial aggression game by the rules.

I don't think this is true, either. Yes, I know you talked to someone who says he talked to a tribal chieftain in Afghanistan who longs romantically for the days of Empire. However, while I have never been to Africa, or Afghanistan, or even India, and so I will admit that I don't speak from personal experience, I think it's kind of naive to think that people in former colonial outposts are prone to waxing sentimental about the good old days when the sun never set on the British Empire.

I think that realpolitik changes when you commit to a long stay. We've been saying "we're only here for now" since we arrived. As a consequence, we've acted with an eye to the short term.

It's a moot point. There is no political will in either the US or the UK for a long-term commitment of the sort you're mentioning, and there is no shifting of political alliances that will change that. Americans have a deep-rooted resistance to the very idea of such a commitment. It's a political non-starter.

What if the best hope for 'regaining public security' is an Imperium?

But it's not, and even if it was, we would never do it.

Opinion in Iraq, I suspect, will follow any course which starts to show a chance at safety and normality.

I agree. However, we do not have the capacity to deliver either.

If we leave now, it's entirely possible we will have created a massive (more massive) humanitarian disaster and a failed state.

That outcome is inevitable at this point, and arguably was as soon as we invaded.

A declaration of Imperium, or anything like it, would further destabilise the region and give credibility to claims that we intend to annex Islamic nations and propogate Christianity or Atheism.

Yep.

It would be cripplingly expensive; so much so that it might significantly damage the US and UK economies, with results we cannot begin to predict.

Yep.

If we don't stay, and Iraq falls into civil war because of our premature departure, then more Iraqis will die. They will die in probably greater numbers, and instead of our citizens. We will effectively have purchased British and American lives with Iraqi ones at the usual ratio (1 Westerner = 10-200 Foreigners).

Yep.

We have already invaded an arab nation. The damage is done.

Yep.

No one's going to hate us more for trying to fix the situation than they do for having created it.

Nope. Things could get substantially worse on that front. You can tell because US-friendly Muslim leaders from Morocco to Indonesia haven't been lynched yet. Musharraf and Mubarak and the Saudis are still clinging to power.

If we stay, we can change that if we make the situation better in concrete ways.

But our very staying is an impediment to concrete change. Someone like us, maybe, could theoretically impose a reasonably stable order on Iraq, but not us. The well is poisoned as far as relationships go, and our institutions are structured all wrong with the wrong kind of people.

Of course it is. But as I said, I believe part of that is a structural and psychological consequence of our contention that we're not staying. These are not our people. They're the defeated enemy. They're just these folks we're trying to sort out. They're like the employees of a company, and we're management consultants. Sure, you have to fire a few guys. It's for the good of the firm.

It's different if we accept that they're our guys.


You're kidding, right? We're trying to build a 700-mile long fence to keep the brown people from sneaking in over the border to pick our crops, clean our toilets, and work in our meatpacking plants. We're in the middle of a major nationalist resurgence, driven largely by the racial insecurities of the white working class, who are unable to compete in a global marketplace. The trend is towards an isolationalist nationalism. The US is never going to accept that the Iraqis are "our guys."

Possibly. What if they are the only people willing or able?

Maybe if they were willing and able, but in the actual world we live in they are neither willing nor able, so, again, it's a moot point.

The problem is whether the removal of those impediments will result in an assumption of power by Iraqis, or a collapse into brigandage, fundamentalism, and warlordism, as in Afghanistan. I think it's an open question. I'm not persuaded that the latter option is in the interest of Iraqis -

I don't think it is, either, but I don't think the US or anyone else can stop that now.

least of all those who are liberal, democratically minded people.

There's been a significant exodus of educated, secular, liberally-minded Iraqis in the past few years, especially women.

Is it such a leap to suggest that an occupying power departing an occupied country leave it in such a state that these requirements will continue to be met after departure? To insist that the nation being reliquished should be capable of sustaining itself, rather than collapsing?

No, but it is a huge leap to suggest that we can actually do any of that effectively.

You're arguing our moral responsibility, and on that I agree with you 100%. However, you're just stubbornly committing to an absurdly rose-colored and romanticized view of what the US and UK are capable of in this situation.

I'm not saying they shouldn't, I'm saying they can't, and you're not acknowledging that the actual situation on the ground if they were to attempt to do so would fall far short of your naive hopes. Surely you see that doing something like this halfway, with a half-assed commitment and no real sense of obligation to the Iraqi people, would be a total nightmare, and the worst of all possible worlds?

So, to everyone who has disagreed with Nick and I's respective approaches here- Natty, diz, Lurid and anyone else- what is the third approach here and what do you think the effects of that approach would be?

I'm deeply pessimistic about Iraq. There are no constructive approaches we can take. All we can do is try to ease the humanitarian crisis brought on by the inevitable collapse of Iraq and the subsequent civil war, wait it out, and try to establish decent relationships with whatever rises out of the ashes in a decade or so. That's the absolute limit of what can be done.

Oh, and we can try to remember not to do this again.
 
 
Tuna Ghost: Pratt knot hero
03:39 / 02.11.06
Yes, to be frank. It is a huge, absurd leap to imagine that a nation which has just waged a war of agression should retain control of the invaded country and its resources for the "good" of the occupied people.

Why? I don't blame you for doubting the intentions of the current administration, and I understand why one would believe that staying in Iraq would cause far more problems than the US could ever fix, but none of that explains why it is a "huge, absurd leap" to think that the people responsible for the destruction should play a role in fixing things. For the life of me I can't see why one would think otherwise.

Surely you see that doing something like this halfway, with a half-assed commitment and no real sense of obligation to the Iraqi people, would be a total nightmare, and the worst of all possible worlds?

Isn't that what's happening now? Is it impossible for the US to do a better job? I'm doubtful that anyone on this board can answer that with any real authority.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
07:17 / 02.11.06
while I have never been to Africa, or Afghanistan, or even India, and so I will admit that I don't speak from personal experience, I think it's kind of naive to think that people in former colonial outposts are prone to waxing sentimental about the good old days when the sun never set on the British Empire.

By way of illustration, look at the Gurkhas. The relationship between the UK and the Gurkhas is profoundly feudal, and dates from the British Raj. It may seem odd. That's your cultural bias speaking.

There is no political will in either the US or the UK for a long-term commitment of the sort you're mentioning, and there is no shifting of political alliances that will change that.

There wasn't much in the way of political wfil or the war, either. It was manufactured. 'Political will' is dynamic, to say the least.

Americans have a deep-rooted resistance to the very idea of such a commitment.

And look how well that's working out for ya.

Less flippantly, opinions change over time. Cultures adapt to circumstance. The US horror of involvement overseas stems partly from the Vietnam experience. Listen to Woodie Guthrie on the subject of WWII and see whether you think his voice - which was hugely influential and popular at the time - shows hesitation about committment to sorting things out in a foreign country. This kind of opinion is malleable.

What if the best hope for 'regaining public security' is an Imperium?

But it's not


Well, that's the issue under debate, isn't it?

You're arguing our moral responsibility, and on that I agree with you 100%. However, you're just stubbornly committing to an absurdly rose-colored and romanticized view of what the US and UK are capable of in this situation.

Ahh. Now, that's interesting. This is purely an argument about practicalities? You'd actually accept the idea that if we could do this, it might be rational and even moral?

As I've said, in real terms, I don't believe there is any chance at all of this happening. Apart from anything else, it would be a (another?) monstrous and absolutely incontestable breach of international law. Never mind the lack of political will, it may just be logistically impossible. Iraq is huge, and our armed forces are simply not set up for Empire. Our legal codes are also not in any shape to deal with it...

Still, I don't know that you're right in thinking we actually couldn't do this. You are absolutely correct to say that we won't.

Surely you see that doing something like this halfway, with a half-assed commitment and no real sense of obligation to the Iraqi people, would be a total nightmare, and the worst of all possible worlds?

Oh, that is absolutely true.

By the way, leave my naivety alone; it's the flip side of my ghastly and appalling cynicism, which is far less endearing.

All we can do is try to ease the humanitarian crisis brought on by the inevitable collapse of Iraq and the subsequent civil war, wait it out, and try to establish decent relationships with whatever rises out of the ashes in a decade or so. That's the absolute limit of what can be done.

Oh, and we can try to remember not to do this again.


Now that, thar, is an agenda I can believe in. Made me a bit teary around the corners. And you call yourself a pessimist?

Lucky old San Diego, to have a diz.
 
 
Lurid Archive
08:15 / 02.11.06
but none of that explains why it is a "huge, absurd leap" to think that the people responsible for the destruction should play a role in fixing things. For the life of me I can't see why one would think otherwise. - Tuna

The way you have reinterpreted my question there is interesting all by itself (read my original question again, and you might spot the difference). Help, for you in this context, doesn't include the possibility of paying reparations, or funding a UN or humanitarian body, or supporting local national government. The help here is via a continued occupation, control of resources and a limit on democracy.

If you admit that a country is wrong to wage a war of agression, I'm not sure why you find it so hard to see that there might be an objection to the occupation which aims to secure the same goals as the invasion. This is like saying that a burglar has a moral duty to hold you at gun point until they have repaid what they took from you (even if, as in this case, they actually keep robbing you).

My question to Nick and others above was serious, by the way, but only insofar as I think it is a reduction ad absurdum of what you guys are saying. If you really think that invading armies have a "duty" to occupy a country until everything is good again - and, as in this case, we allow the invaders to factor in their own wishes about the leadership and direction of the nation - then I'd like to hear how this is a general principle, and how it would work in practice.

Because, as I've articulated it there, it seems to me like an invitation to engage in wars of agression. I can't honestly imagine that anyone would support this as a principle, and yet people seem quite comfortable with a formal codification of this pro-war position.

The alternative would be what exactly? Depart immediately? If so Saddam would have gotten straight out of his spider-hole and back into his palace the day after victory was declared, massacred some Kurds for fighting alongside the Americans, then its back to business as usual until the next faux-invasion. - Phex

I can admit that an immediate withdrawal would be both impossible and counter-productive if you imagine it as some kind of Star Trek teleport. More realistically, immediate means over the course of a few months, timetabled and organised with the Iraqis in order to aid a smoother transition. To answer Nick's question about practicalities....

We can't approach this question as if we don't know anything about the situation in Iraq, and the fact that we have not yet established order and that US and UK forces are the target of a lot of violence, suggests to me that we might not succeed in the medium term either. We have had a chance to make things better. The fact that we haven't is due partly to incompetence, and partly to the fact that restoring peace in Iraq takes second place to controlling Iraq. In that situation, a continued presence makes no sense whatsoever.

Moreover, it is really, really, hard for me to imagine a situation in which an invading army doesn't prioritse its own goals over the good of the invaded nation. So to argue that this is all somehow for the good of the Iraqis is at best an excursion into fantasy land.
 
 
Lurid Archive
08:57 / 02.11.06
Just to add a little on Iraqi opinion. A more fleshed out survey (still only 1150 respondents) is available here.

Seven in ten Iraqis want US-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year. An overwhelming majority believes that the US military presence in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing. More broadly, most feel the US is having a predominantly negative influence in Iraq and have little or no confidence in the US military. If the US made a commtment to withdraw, a majority believes this would strenghten the Iraqi government.

There is also no support for an open-ended commitment of US troops.
 
 
Evil Scientist
10:30 / 02.11.06
Nick, whilst I accept that you're not a pro-empire person I do think you are looking at (for instance) the British Empire's occupation of India through extremely rose-tinted glasses. It wasn't an attempt to "civilise" another country, it was brutal and vicious exploitation and the vast majority of the indigenous population were extremely glad to see the back of the Empire.

Setting ourselves up as rulers of Iraq is not an option currently available to us. As you yourself have admitted we are constrained in doing this by a number of factors. Even if we could do it I am not of the opinion that it would provide any more stability to the country than the situation we are in now (propping up a government that will most likely vanish as soon as we pull out).

It's different if we accept that they're our guys.

Not something that happened during our occupation of India though was it? In fact that whole sorry era was based on the atrociously racist notion of white superiority.

Consider the terrible violence being inflicted on the population now. Consider the sealing off of Falluja, Coalition forces preventing any males from leaving and then rolling the full might of their Western war machine through the city. Consider that this kind of thing is being done by a military force apparently restricted by what the Iraqi government wants.

Now consider it under whatever neocon politician would be chosen as the Overseer for Iraq. Or worse, under a council of generals authorised to bring peace to Iraq no matter what the cost?

Your thinking is sweet. Very idealistic. It's basically "What if we asked The Authority to take over the country?". But it won't work.

Acting in the mode of the empire means stamping on the country you've invaded until nothing twitches anymore.
 
  
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