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US Elections - 2006

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03:15 / 28.09.06

Just a month or so away, it's the midterm elections!

Not being in the US, it's hard to find out what's happening, and over the 50 states what will happen... Talking Points Memo helps of course...

Do the Democrats have a chance of winning control? Are there any really close interesting races? (Aside from the George Allen insanity which deserves its own thread)... Can we finally say goodbye to Santorum?

Will we get an October Suprise? Airstrikes on Iran? Bin Laden's head?

What will happen if the Democrats win? Investigations and impeachments? Or will there just be another 2 years of business as usual?

13:44 / 28.09.06

Well, the Florida gubernatorial race might be interesting just because Katherine Harris still insists on running for her House seat, being totally BUGFUCK INSANE and apparently dragging the rest of the Republicans down around her.

On the other hand, the Republican candidate for *governor* actually seems to be fairly rational (although I haven't done nearly enough homework on him). He's not actually part of the president's family, at any rate.

We're The Great Old Ones Now

14:28 / 28.09.06

Harris just fascinates me, in a post-Greg Palast kinda way. I just want to see what she does next.

16:43 / 28.09.06

Create Indian sock puppets? Or, uh, just attract fans in Asia?

Sorry, I don't want to turn this into a Harris thread (although, you know, that'd probably wind up pretty damn hysterical).

ONLY NICE THINGS

22:09 / 28.09.06

So, tell us Brits of this woman. She sounds _fabulous_...

22:58 / 28.09.06

I heard Katherine Harris on NPR yesterday - on Talk of the Nation. She was pretty repulsive. One meaningless conservative catchphrase after another. "I'm certainly not going to cowtow to liberal media and be politically correct." She talked over the host constantly and repeated her talking points completely apart from whatever she was being asked... I also love that she appropriated the phrase "cut and run" in reference to something her opponent did with home owner's insurance blah blah blah. She is apparently running mainly on 1)gay marriage, and 2) "illegals" having more rights than "us."

Nationwide... the word right now is that Democrats have a decent chance of winning enough seats to take majority in the House but will have a tougher time doing so in the Senate (though it's not impossible). There's a lot of conflicting info floating around about how important Iraq is or isn't, whether it will come down to national security or simply the economy and local issues....

23:25 / 28.09.06

I think the funniest thing she's said was last month: "if you're not electing Christians, then in essence you are going to legislate sin."

01:30 / 29.09.06

Katherine Harris. Ah, yes. "Bugfuck crazy", that's on the money there. For you who don't know, she was Florida's secretary of state during the disputed 2000 presidential elections, very quickly calling the vote when it was still too close to call. All the republicans loved her then.
Currently, she's running for Senate, with a revolving door of campaign advisors who keep fleeing when they realize what they've gotten themselves into. Apparently she refused to accept reality and get out of the race, even though she was begged by state republican leaders before the primaries. Even her old boss Jeb Bush is treating her like the proverbial red-headed stepchild. She did win the primary to a couple of little-known challengers, but Bill Nelson would probably have to rape and then eat little babies to lose at this point.
But to the topic of the midterms in general, the NYT had a piece yesterday about the at least plausibility of democrats taking the senate, with George Allen tripping in Virginia and Harold Ford doing a bit better in Tennessee, among other races. The house is very possible, but the senate? Well, one can dream. The Abramoff stuff should be coming back this week, showing closer ties to the White House.
Still, the RNC has boatloads of rich white money.

12:23 / 29.09.06

Being a Brit living out of the UK and addicted to Dailykos, I'm feeling 100% more informed about these elections than about any UK politics. Where the next war is going to be has a greater importance to me than how the Liberal Democrat leadership is doing.

The impression I get is that voters from both parties are finally getting sick of corruption and lying. The issue of election reliability also seems to be edging into the mainstream discourse. Putting aside any actual policies or positions, this would seem to favour the Democrats, as they are less grubby than the Republicans.

If control of one or both houses switches, what do you think are the chances of any actual criminal charges against this administration? War crimes or corruption or lying or just anything please.

Assuming a Democrat is the next president, would all the talk right now of how shocking the subversion of the constitution is, disappear once they felt the usefulness of the new powers they had at their disposal?

14:59 / 29.09.06

Katherine Harris: former Florida Sect'y State during Election 2000, got elected to the House of Representatives following that like a dutiful Republican soldier, her breasts became an issue (not making that up), and then her campaign workers started quitting, one after another, and she took money from her campaign to renovate her house, and fellow Republicans stopped endorsing her (despite Harris' claims to the contrary). And then, more recently, she declared that only Christians should be elected to office because that's God's plan for America (more or less -- admittedly, this was in an interview with a Baptist paper, but still -- check the last paragraph and think of "separation of church and state").

More on wikipedia, the Wonkette "Katherine Harris" tag, the Urban Dictionary and, oh, just Google her name. I'm totally skipping over her prose style & general personality, and that's the best part.

15:02 / 29.09.06

If control of one or both houses switches, what do you think are the chances of any actual criminal charges against this administration? War crimes or corruption or lying or just anything please.

Actually, I think this is highly likely. If there was a 2/3rds majority of Dems in the House & Senate, something would happen and we might be looking at two impeached presidents in a row. Which I think would damage the presidency, but hey.

I saw a poll recently that found more people now support impeaching Bush than ever supported impeaching Clinton -- so there's popular support.

18:32 / 29.09.06

America, I'd like to apologize on Florida's behalf.

No, not for the crazy woman. For Mark Foley, who has just announced that on the heels of the "flirty email" scandal, he's resigning his seat in the House. Mark Foley is one of that very rare breed of American politician, a gay Republican. Also chairman of the Caucus for Missing and Exploited Children.

Now being questioned for sending sexually explicit messages to minors. Plural. Congressional pages current and former.

Yikes.

A spokesman for Foley, the chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, said the congressman submitted his resignation in a letter late this afternoon to Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Hours earlier, ABC News had read excerpts of instant messages provided by former pages who said the congressman, under the AOL Instant Messenger screen name Maf54, made repeated references to sexual organs and acts.

19:37 / 29.09.06

Just to clarify the revelance here, by state law, his name is still going to appear on the November ballot. Some other Republican will be named as the new candidate, but won't actually appear on the ballot. People will be confused.

We don't do well with confusion down here.

19:38 / 29.09.06

The impression I get is that voters from both parties are finally getting sick of corruption and lying. The issue of election reliability also seems to be edging into the mainstream discourse. Putting aside any actual policies or positions, this would seem to favour the Democrats, as they are less grubby than the Republicans.

I'm not sure that final statement is true, though, and I'm also not sure that's the general perception of the public. The failures and general fuckupery of the administration will have a negative effect on people's view of the Republican party, but when it comes to Congress most Americans traditionally hate both parties equally.

The following are from pollingreport.com -

"When it comes to dealing with ethics in government, which party do you think would do a better job: the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or both about the same? If you think that neither would do a good job, please just say so." Half-sample (Form A)

Democratic 24%
Republican 17%
Same 24%
Neither 32%
Unsure 3%
(from June of this year)

As you may know, there have been a number of allegations of ethics violations and misconduct by members of Congress. Do you think this Congress has had more ethical problems than those in the past, fewer ethical problems than those in the past, or about the same number of ethical problems as those in the past?" Half-sample (Form A)

More 33%
Fewer 3%
Same 60%
Unsure 4%

(also June 06)

And here's a big poll from various outlets about the House of Reps race.

I think the Congressional race is far more important than the Presidential in 08 (in fact I would probably rather see a Republican win that one because whomever inherits the landfill left behind by Bush is not going to come out smelling rosy). I just hope I can vote. I'm moving this month to a new state - does anyone know if I'll be able to vote there in November or do you have to be a resident for a while?

00:52 / 30.09.06

Ibis, you might look into an absentee ballot for this go-round.
About I think the Congressional race is far more important than the Presidential in 08 (in fact I would probably rather see a Republican win that one because whomever inherits the landfill left behind by Bush is not going to come out smelling rosy), I gotta respectfully disagree. Not that I'd say the presidency is more important than the congress, but the power of the presidency to steer policy focus is immense, look what this boob has done, framing the debates with simplistic options and forcing (his) congress to ride shotgun. I don't think democrats have the cohesion to play the same game, but that's another point, I guess. The role of the presidency, regardless of it's actual power, has appearance of even greater power, which is why the "bully pulpit" idea holds such great credence, and can give more gravity than may be deserved. People so automatically bend to the appearance of power. Also, really, perceived power is power.

05:56 / 30.09.06

AS usual, thinking about politics makes me feel sick to my stomach. Does anybody know of a digest that gives a summary of the least worst options?

We're The Great Old Ones Now

12:34 / 30.09.06

Calvin and Hobbes used to. Bill, Bill, you have left us in our hour of need.

00:51 / 01.10.06

Fred, what does "least worst" mean???

Keith, like a scientist

05:39 / 01.10.06

Kenneth Blackwell is making me very frightened for my state's well-being. If you believe RFK, Jr. quite compelling Rolling Stone article, this is the man that pretty much ensured Ohio's votes went to Bush in 2004.

Just the Wikipedia intro paragraphs give a good idea of why this man's gubernatorial ambitions need to be stopped.

Blackwell gained national prominence for his dual roles as Chief Elections official of Ohio and honorary co-chair of the "Committee to re-elect George W. Bush" during the 2004 election. Allegations of conflict of interest and voter disenfranchisement led to the filing of at least sixteen related lawsuits naming Blackwell. Regarding voter disenfranchisement, the US Court of Appeals ruled, in agreement with Blackwell, that provisional ballots cast in the wrong polling location should not be counted in the election. Blackwell was also named in a 2006 lawsuit related to his office's public disclosure of the Social Security numbers of Ohio residents.

A conservative, Blackwell is a staunch proponent of gun ownership rights, has stated that he is against abortion even if the mother's life is at risk, and campaigned heavily for the successful 2004 State Constitutional Amendment barring gay marriage.

17:49 / 02.10.06

'least worst' means I'm so distressed I can't speak English anymore. Sorry!

'Any options that aren't utterly awful' perhaps?

18:50 / 02.10.06

No, no -- I know what "least worst" means as far as the language goes. I just no longer know what it would look like in American politics.

If you've got any ideas, please give me a hand!

14:59 / 03.10.06

For the Democrats:
* Conservative Washington Times is calling for Speaker Hastert to step down.

For the Republicans:
* Time magazine explains why they're not really as worried as it seems like they should be -- by describing their strategy for success. Money, yeah, but a few other things, too.

21:25 / 03.10.06

I was thinking, actually, of somebody like Dennis Kucinich -- he looks so good on some issues, like same-sex marriage, withdrawal from Iraq, and health care, but then not so hot on abortion. Somebody like that? A few redeeming qualities, at least?

We're The Great Old Ones Now

06:11 / 06.10.06

Did Mark Foley kill this thread with his bare hands?

(I'm having a major problem with this whole thing: I keep mixing him up with Mick Foley, who is clearly not the same. Although Mick Foley has had so many aliases that it's hard to be sure.)

Psi-L is working in hell

11:18 / 06.10.06

No I think Mark Foley just made the baby Jesus cry....

Seriously though, do any of you US based people out there want to give us a feel for how this whole 'Paged Heat' scandal (as the Daily Show is calling it) is going down over there, as it's always more difficult to tell from across the pond.

Does this have the potential to help the Democrats take back the House, or even the Senate as well in November? Certainly all the media I'm reading seems to think it might, but couldn't all this raised expectations of a Democrat win just backfire and increase the turnout of Republicans?

16:23 / 06.10.06

Certainly all the media I'm reading seems to think it might, but couldn't all this raised expectations of a Democrat win just backfire and increase the turnout of Republicans?

From what I understand, the whole sorry mess hasn't nudged poll numbers in either direction. IMO, there's a good chance that Page-gate will depress turnout among Republicans on Election Day. The hardcore Repubs I know are pretty turned off by the whole thing, and feel pretty betrayed. That betrayal is especially felt in the subset known as the Religious Right, an important voting bloc for the Repubs.

03:09 / 07.10.06

...Which translates into a motivated Democratic base.

It's all over the news, and has also become sort of a thing around various campaigns. If Hastert (Speaker of the House) has to resign because he purportedly knew something was up with Foley as early as 2001 but did nothing about it, then it's going to be huge. Especially in October (election day is now less than 1 month away).

Funny. I think I've voted for Foley in the past. I know I've eaten in a little cafe he used to own. (My last gig was in the bar that took the old building over.) He, uh, is my representative. I'm in his district. The local papers of full of it all the time.

12:57 / 09.10.06

More midterm fun: Pittsburgh steelworkers chase Governor Jeb Bush into a supply closet.

He's out after this November anyway (term limits), but he was showing up at a Santorum fundraiser. To, uh, add prestige or whatever.

13:08 / 09.10.06

And, of course, the thing with Foley keeps unfolding in a way that it almost seems like an intentional test of the old saw about teflon politicians -- they'd have to be caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy....

And Time magazine is predicting dooooom for the GOP.

The whole thing is terribly depressing.

17:29 / 11.10.06

grant, do you think the Dems are going to make any hay? I keep waiting to see them fuck it up.

17:50 / 11.10.06

I keep thinking they'll find a way, but I dunno -- usually they seem to mess things up by not doing anything, and I think this scandal has essentially given the Republicans enough rope to finish themselves off without any help. If any one thing was guaranteed to alienate the religious right base, it's 1. something involving MAN-BOY LOVE that 2. was apparently covered up by people in power.

Have you been tracking the weirdness with Fox News putting the wrong political party names next to candidate photos? They did it with Foley, but now they're doing the same thing with some other folks. Weird.

20:58 / 11.10.06

Fox News? How very, odd. The Daily Show did a good bit about the Foley thing. Who else have they switched?
So the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee is now a dead heat between Harold Ford and Bob Corker, another interesting developement. Along with the Virginia Race between Allen and Webb, some of these red states are getting a little purple.

17:44 / 12.10.06

Other news outlets switched Foley (who, admittedly, used to be a Democrat).

But Fox did the same thing to Rhode Island candidates.

16:58 / 19.10.06

Fun from somewhere other than Florida.

Latino Democrat voters in California were treated to an official-looking mailout in Spanish that said:

"You are advised that if your residence in this country is illegal or you are an immigrant, voting in a federal election is a crime that could result in jail time."

And threatens that the state has developed a tracking system that will allow the names of Latino voters to be handed over to anti-immigrant groups.

What's especially ironic in this case is that the Republican candidate (the fellow likely responsible for the anti-immigrant mailer) is named Tan Nguyen. Not Latino, but definitely not a back-to-the-Mayflower American.

Jack The Bodiless

10:35 / 20.10.06

I'm having a major problem with this whole thing: I keep mixing him up with Mick Foley, who is clearly not the same. Although Mick Foley has had so many aliases that it's hard to be sure.

Dude, I am having exactly the same problem...

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