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Expressing probability precisely

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Cat Chant

09:25 / 30.08.06

Hah! PWNED, Rendell!

Thanks, you guys.

Mourne Kransky

17:42 / 30.08.06

OK Olulabelle,

1. It’s likely - 70%
2. It may happen - 40%
3. It’s highly probable - 85%
4. There’s a chance - 10%
5. It’s very likely - 80%
6. There’s a real chance - 50%
7. There’s a significant likelihood - 65%
8. It’s foreseeable - 5%
9. It’s as likely as not - 50%
10. It’s virtually certain - 95%

But I've done the exercise lots of times and my answers may have been influenced by the norms.

Duncan, the stats are on my machine at work but I'll post them if I remember to dig them out.

Jackie Susann

03:40 / 31.08.06

But what about the trouser injuries?!

They may happen...

Doing my bit, even though it's probably too late:

1. It’s likely - 65%
2. It may happen - 20%
3. It’s highly probable - 85%
4. There’s a chance - 5%
5. It’s very likely - 85%
6. There’s a real chance - 30%
7. There’s a significant likelihood - 30%
8. It’s foreseeable - 10%
9. It’s as likely as not - 50%
10. It’s virtually certain - 95%

15:03 / 01.09.06

So when someone says: 'You should be careful. Things might get broken...' - as what percentage of a threat do people experience that?

The Falcon

15:06 / 01.09.06

Yeah, that's something I've been mulling - there's probably a mean between positive and negative outcomes. I must be a cynic because I'd read 'it may happen' (+ outcome) as, say, 30% but (- outcome) as 40%.

The Falcon

15:08 / 01.09.06

Which, given I've written 35% for the phrase originally, makes some kind of sense, and indeed expresses my mean. (although, I'm thinking maybe a 1/3 chance instead - 33.333rec%).

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