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A new bolivia - a new mandela?

22:32 / 07.08.06

is evo morales, bolivia's first indian leader, a kind of new mandela?

he is collating a massive assembly to give voice and a new form of power to the 60% of indigenous peoples that make up the country, radiclly shifting from a colonial-enforced remnant.

i went to bolivia four or five years ago and was happy to get out of la paz; that said, it is big cold high and steep and my companions all got altitude sickness... tiwanaku was wonderful. but the indians had a common glazed sadness that i only sensed in a few days in the country...

anyway, this article outlines a little of what he's doing.

have only kept an occasional eye on his leadership - he wears great cardigans! - but get a sense that he is making a genuinely radical change that is the hallmark of great leaders - anyone think my radar is entirely askew?

anyone else know anything much about bolivian politics??

00:13 / 09.08.06

Although i admire his balls and his rhetoric, He has an inspiring bark, but not much bite. He wants to nationalize Bolivia's natural resources, making sure that their profits go to Bolivia's people, rather than to foreign multinational companies. However, these resources have been leased to the companies, and these leases are protected by the North American Free Trade Agreement, and disputes w/r/t these leases are subject to arbitration by secret pannels (that I think are appointed by the United States, but I'm not sure) which, in the case of Morales, would almost certainly rule in favor of the industries. In which case, the leases would be enforced by some means of which I am not knowlegable w/r/t at the moment. Additionally, completely independently of NAFTA and secret arbitration pannels, if Morales steps out of line, I see in his future some sort of "popular coup" in the vein of the one we trid to pull on Chavez back in 2003. So, although his motives may be noble, he is essentially at the mercy of western industry, and at the moment, in no position to make any sweeping changes.

09:56 / 09.08.06

if Morales steps out of line, I see in his future some sort of "popular coup" in the vein of the one we trid to pull on Chavez back in 2003.

Aren't you neglecting the fact that that "popular coup" against Chávez failed. Why do you think a similar move against Morales is likely to succeed, Triumvir? I think the foreign companies will negotiate, and it's well worth their while doing so.

01:38 / 10.08.06

elene:

For the simple reason that Morales, from what I've seen so far (I may simply just be totally off base on this one) simply doesn't yet have the immensly sweeping popular support that Chavez had at the time (and still has now). Morales just hasn't been president long enough, hasn't done enough things to win the populous's unwavering support. At this point in time, I don't see there being enough popular love for Morales to facilitate a large segment of the population taking to the streets and returning their deposed leader to power. I don't think that what Morales is trying to acomplish isn't a good thing to try to acomplish, only that it will not be an easy thing to acomplish.

06:11 / 10.08.06

Evo Morales is very popular but his party, MAS, is by no means equally strong. He won election very convincingly, though certainly not crushingly, and this very recent Angus Reid poll finds that satisfaction with his performance has now dropped to 68% having been 75% in June and 81% in May. He's been making a lot of compromises lately, as of course he must, and a lot of negotiations are still in progress. Should his popularity continue to fall he will be in trouble eventually, but he's certainly not there yet. I think, at the moment a coup would probably do more to silence the opposition than to harm him.