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Cuba Libre?

  
 
Quantum
10:36 / 02.08.06
Castro's got gut trouble and has handed power (temporarily) to his brother Raul. Castro's nearly 80 and Raul is 75, so the question arises what will happen to Cuba when they pass on?
Some Cubans were defiant;
"Viva la revolucion," they shouted. "Viva Fidel! Our country or death. We will overcome."
while others were jubilant;
in Miami's Little Havana... Thousands poured into the streets, cheering. They hoped that this was the sign that things were about to change.

So, if and when the Castro brothers are gone what will happen to Cuba? How will it's relations with the U.S. change, might the embargo be lifted, might the human rights abuses decline? Perhaps there will be a regime change, voluntary or forced, could Cuba be a Communist utopia or does it need capitalism forced upon it? Here's an Independent article and here's the Wikipedia entry.
 
 
grant
11:59 / 02.08.06
Well, CANF makes an effective (as in "in effect" more than "actually gets things done") government in exile, and some of the most influential businessmen in America are the Cuban-born Fanjuls (the force behind Big Sugar).

So my money's on another Bay of Pigs-style invasion, only possibly without much in the way of defense from the Cuban army. Something will happen -- the well-organized devotees of capitalism (some descended from the old elite, some embittered by Castro's brutal methods) are going to try to take over. The idea that "He has taken my Cuba" is a strong one down here.

Miami's economy may go into a tailspin, but I don't know -- the island is really only 90 miles away from Key West (although that's like four hours south of Miami). A lot of businesses are going to stay, and a lot of people. I think they're just going to travel a lot more.

Now's the time to invest in a ferry company or sea plane jitney service.

Hmm... although there's some unimaginable amount of money that gets sent "home" from Miami to take care of relatives left behind. If that stops being sent (which is a big "if," actually, since it's not organized and done on an "Uncle Ramon's gout is acting up and he can't work fixing cars this month" basis), then there'd be a measurable effect on the local economy.

A non-embargoed Cuba would have a huge effect on the American economy -- too big for me to get my head around right now.

Oh, and this may become a big deal in election 2008. Big present for Jeb -- the exiles are, like, the Republican base in South Florida (the three biggest counties are Dem strongholds, except for the exiles).

There's a thing on Talking Points Memo on this -- one of the comments leads to this essay by a second-generation Cuban-American, which I found interesting:

So it was that as a teen growing up in Miami, I identified with the Cuban exile community. I shared the memories of loss that haunted my parents and other Cuban-born adults. I understood the rage, the mourning, the painful longing that fueled public protests and other expressions of Cuban exile identity. I moved between this familial world defined by exile and the world I shared with my American friends, who regarded my family's preoccupation with politics with curious bewilderment. They could not understand why so many Cubans in Miami did not simply move on, live in the present as Americans and shed their obsession with Cuba's past and with Fidel Castro. How could they know that lives had been forever changed and a people radically divided by events in 1959? How could they relate to the passionate displays of patriotism and fiery rhetoric that shaped Cuban exile politics in Miami? To the inhabitants of the world outside this exile enclave, politics had very little to do with daily life, while to me, it was intimately personal. In my familial world, Castro's latest words or deeds informed dinner conversations, and news flashes about Cuba sparked impromptu street demonstrations or heated arguments among friends and family. In my home away from home, Cuba was always an absent presence, the subject of gossip exchanged over café cubano at the ubiquitous coffee stands and the object of passionate emotions vented on local radio talk shows and news editorials. It was a world where the butcher bore the scars of torture endured during twenty years as a political prisoner and my neighbor's brother had been executed by a pro-Castro firing squad. This was not a world where politics was just about an occasional election.

...In Miami, Cuban exiles who cling to this singular vision memorialize the pre-1959 past as the moment of solidarity and communality, and only insiders to this vision may share its glory. Miami's elites have been granted access to the US's political machinery, and they wield their influence by financing pro-embargo campaigns and "representing" the Cuban exile community on the national stage. Their opinions on everything from the embargo against Cuba to whether six-year-old Elian should stay in the U.S. are the ones televised on national news programs, their views are held up by the media as representing "the Cuban exile community" or "Miami's Cuban community." It is no wonder that many Cubans of my generation have moved away from Miami and dissociated themselves entirely from the identity essentialized as "Miami Cuban."
 
 
Quantum
17:46 / 04.08.06
George Bush has issued an invitation to Cubans to work for 'democratic change'
'We will support you in your effort to build a transitional government in Cuba committed to democracy, and we will take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba,' Bush said in a statement.
Eeerily reminiscent of his dad telling the Iraqui people to rise up against Saddam.

Beware, popup infected link
 
 
grant
18:06 / 04.08.06
...which in turn was reminiscent (to me, and others) of JFK's fuckup with the Bay of Pigs.

All about promises of air support for a popular uprising.
 
 
Jack Fear
18:28 / 04.08.06
Alfredo Duran, who fought at the Bay of Pigs, thinks those expecting explosive change after that Castros are mistaken. Salient quotes:

[B]ecause Fidel Castro is such a huge figure in Cuba the vacuum he's going to leave is going to be very hard to fill. Probably they'll have some kind of collective leadership out of the Central Committee of the party. Which, by the way, is made up of relatively young men. There are only four or five of the old historical figures there. But everybody else is around 50 or 55 or younger. Those people have a new vision of what Cuba should be about. They will probably move quickly to integrating themselves into the overall international picture, communications, globalization, the whole thing the 21st century is about....

Chances of a US invasion? Slim, he reckons; the Cuban exile community is divided on the issue, with a relatively small bunch of hardliners and a much larger (and younger) contingent that would just as soon not see a civil war that would kill off a lot of their relatives:

The anti-Castro movement is becoming more and more moderate. You only have a few ultra-right-wing groups that are at all effective, and mostly they are very old men. ...
A lot of them still want to roll the clock back to 1959 both politically and economically [and] get their property back on the backs of the U.S. Marines. .... Those people are out of touch with what the reality of Cuba is now.

There will doubtless be anxieties in the transition, though, and US citizens may take actions that put the government in a sticky situation...

[If there were another floating exodus], it would originate from Florida, not Cuba. People would be trying to go to Cuba to get their relatives out. And I don't think the Coast Guard would allow it. ....

He remains essentially hopeful...

I think the United States will finally decide to have a more intelligent policy toward Cuba and start talking to the new government in Cuba and normalize things, especially travel back and forth ....

And given that Raul, at least, looks unlikely to exit the scene until after the departure of the Bush administration, that sounds sensible.
 
 
grant
23:57 / 04.08.06
I'd love to see the embargo dropped, personally.

I do think if/when that happens, there's going to be some kind of wingnuttery. It may be economic, it might just be a public declaration or attempt to hold an election-in-absentia, it may be Alpha 66 commandos with M16s. Five guys? 50 guys? I dunno.

I don't think the U.S. itself would ever dream of invading -- but some of those exiles are going to try something.
 
 
grant
00:07 / 05.08.06
That floating exodus seems really likely. Also, remember these guys? Watch the skies.

That Duran article's pretty cool, though.

But everybody else is around 50 or 55 or younger. Those people have a new vision of what Cuba should be about. They will probably move quickly to integrating themselves into the overall international picture, communications, globalization, the whole thing the 21st century is about.

That makes me think of China, actually.

They're all in like with each other, and China's even sounding a little mother hen-ish about the whole tummy ache thing.
 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
08:29 / 19.02.08
Fidel Castro announces retirement.

Mr Castro said he would not accept another five-year term as president when the National Assembly meets on Sunday, because of [his] health problems.

"It would betray my conscience to take up a responsibility that requires mobility and total devotion, that I am not in a physical condition to offer," he wrote.

However, Mr Castro insisted he was "not saying farewell".

"I just want to carry on fighting like a soldier of ideas," he added. "I will continue writing under the title, Reflections of Comrade Fidel."

It sounds a bit like Tony Benn, he's giving up being President in order to take up politics.
 
 
Alex's Grandma
20:58 / 24.02.08
I think the United States will finally decide to have a more intelligent policy toward Cuba and start talking to the new government in Cuba and normalize things, especially travel back and forth ...

Best guess is, that's what will happen. Elements in the US might like to arrange things differently, but, bluntly, Cuba's been a popular tourist destination for a while now, with a functioning infrastructure. Accordingly, the post-Castro Cuban government, whatever form it takes, is unlikely to have any interest in engaging with the US in anything might be even perceived as an 'aggressive' fashion. Bearing in mind it's location, and what's happened to neighbour states in recent memory.

Similarly, even the extreme edges of the Bush administration must realise that if the US is seen to be interfering in such a high-profile change of government, it's potentially going to be disastrous in terms of world opinion.

In a few years time, I'd guess Cuba will be in a similar position to Costa Rica; it'll largely be left alone, as much other than a holiday spot for pleasure-seekers. If an attack comes in any way, it'll be in the form of investment, I'd have thought.
 
 
Tamayyurt
12:03 / 01.03.08
This is really all interesting. I'm 2nd generation Cuban-American and I live in Miami and most Cubans down here don't really expect much change. They think this is just a clever way to ease Cuba and the world at large into a post-Castro era without much fuss. I don't know anyone who's planning on going back and trying something. Those Brigada 66 guys are ancient and probably living in retirement homes in Boca Raton.

I personally think it's the start of a slow process of change. I think we'll see something like China were pockets freedom will be allowed to exist in order to benefit the country. Over the decades these pockets will expand.

And although my Dad would probably kill me for saying so, I think lifting the embargo or at least lessening it would probably speed up change as it'll introduce Cubans to a new way of life (and shiny new products), which they'll then demand.
 
  
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