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How big is this war becoming?

  
 
Ender
20:55 / 21.07.06
I recently read a CNN report that said that an Iranian official was invited to view the N. Korea missile launches.

The report said something about growing ties between the two countries.

Also, Russia and China have been getting more and more friendly over the past few years. and both of those countries are against sanctions on N. Korea, and they were also the last hold outs on sanctions for Iran.

Iran has ties with Hezbolah, and some political advisors say that Iran is largely behind the current troubles in that area. Other reports say that Hezbolah simply follows the ideals and not the leadership of countries like Iran and Syria.

I have been reading all of the headline stories, but have not taken the time to really search through all of the information from the fringe sources(admittedly).

What have others found, how are you interpreting your findings?
 
 
elene
09:34 / 22.07.06
North Korea wants to sell its missiles, Iran is a potential customer. I don’t think that’s got anything to do with the conflict in Lebanon. The relationships of Russia and China to each other and to the USA are very complex and don’t really have anything to do with this conflict either.

Ian Welsh at The Agonist has put up a preliminary list of possible Middle East End States for this conflict.

The list so far includes the following possibilities.

    1. The Lebanese Army takes over the border.
    2. An International force takes over border.
    3. An international force takes over border and disarms Hezbollah.
    4. Civil War.
    5. Israeli occupation of a dead-zone strip in Southern Lebanon.
    6. Israeli reoccupation of Southern Lebanon.
    7. The War Spreads.
    8. Status Quo

To the option "The War Spreads", which seems to be the possibility troubling you, Ender, he comments,

If Israel decides the real problem is Syria and attacks, then all bets are off. At that point Iran may intervene as well, and their intervention is likely to be to put pressure on the US, in Iran [Iraq?], and perhaps through oil warfare.
 
 
Ender
17:18 / 22.07.06
If the war starts pulling in other countries at what point do you think that China and Russia will get involved (if at all) and whos side do you think they would be on?
 
 
elene
18:18 / 22.07.06
Russia and China won’t get involved directly. Why would they? Neither trusts Iran, at least not with nuclear weapons, but China wants access to its oil and Russia is happier not dealing with yet another US-proxy on it’s underside. The USA wants Russia’s resources. Russia is busily defending itself. The USA would be insane to attack Iran. It might well lose it’s Iraq army and it’s grip on the whole region if it does. Israel has no reason to attack Iran. Syria does remains a possibility, but if they overthrow the Ba’ath they’ll wind up dealing with an Islamic Fundamentalist regime instead. It makes no sense. It’s all hot air.

This is about Hezbollah, Israel and Hezbollah. The USA is just a diplomatic tool to keep the UN and the Europeans in their place and the supplier of Israel’s weapons. Iran is just the supplier of Hezbollah’s.

Not that there aren’t still American Imperialists who want to fight, but it’s stupid and will happen by accident if it does.
 
 
elene
18:20 / 22.07.06
I think, that is.
 
 
All Acting Regiment
08:59 / 25.07.06
Yeah, Ender, I reaally don't think you should get het up about some kind of axis-of-evil coming into being. True, the countries you list have beef with America but they also have big beef among themselves. Remember that Islamic Fundamentalists took apart a lot of the old Soviet Union (my generalisation), and that Russia is now engaged in on-off violence with Chechnya for related reasons.

Also seeing as China and North Korea are supposed to be communist (self identifying by leaders, of course- in truth they're state owned capitalist) one could foresee problems with them teaming up with a theocracy: whether or not the leaders actually care about this is perhaps up for grabs but it would certainly raise questions about the states' adherence to their respective ideologies and perhaps put the powerful in danger.
 
 
Ender
16:18 / 25.07.06
That all makes sense to me, but at the same time I just have this uneasy feeling in my gut all day long. I just cant handle all of these wars, and killing. And I feel like I live in a country under a mad man's rule...
 
 
All Acting Regiment
12:17 / 27.07.06
Of course. It's not nice in any way. The truth is, there's always nasty war stuff going on around the world, and even when we become more empathic there'll still be floods and such. Better to be informed than hide away from it.
 
 
Ender
16:15 / 27.07.06
Hiding is definatly not the answer. The answer is ????? Fuck I just had it a second ago.
 
  
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