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2016

 
 
Smoothly
00:33 / 18.07.06
Background (you can skip this bit if you like):

(One thing that vetting new applicants really drives home to me is the broad range of interests, specialisms and expertise the community represents. On pretty much every subject I can think of, there's at least one person here who knows more about it than I do.

I was thinking about the different ways that knowledge is (or could be) aggregated, and about how we generally approach it by topic. The people interested in one particular thing or another gather in this thread and/or that, and share ideas on that issue. There are also Q&A threads that cover a range of subjects, but take them one at a time and basically follow the same protocol.

Wondering about more inclusive ways of pooling the knowledge of the community, and coming across the Epic 2015 presentation, I thought a bit of cross-discipline futurism might be fun.

There have been threads like this in the Lab, but I thought we could extend it beyond science and technology.
Certainly, people who know about technology could forecast what kind of kit or software we'll be using; but people interested in media or politics could prophecise the future of the cultural or political landscape; if you know about forestry or geography you could tell us about the physical landscape... You get the idea. They don't have to be comprehensive visions, just bits and pieces.)

So, what do you think the world will be like in 2016?
 
 
stabbystabby
00:54 / 18.07.06
a horrifying barren wasteland...
 
 
*
02:54 / 18.07.06
Someone I miss left this, written for no one but herself:

In 2060, we will look back on the present era as a vast transition, a bottleneck between the past and present. The population will stabilize around 10 billion and begin to drop slowly. The developing world will then be the developed world, and with this development will come a worldwide reduction in hunger, disease, illiteracy and intolerance. With a better understanding of nutrition and the application of permaculture techniques on a broad, but locally based scale, everyone will eat well. A scientific research colony on Mars will highlight the riches we enjoy here on Earth while helping humanity take the first step in spreading wonderful life to the lifeless parts of universe, to one day creating ecosystems instead of destroying them. The forces of social progress will continue – the rights of women and people with different colored skin will be brought as far again as they have been in the past fifty years, or more. Queer rights will be at least as universal as women's rights are now, and we will in earnest begin extending some rights to other social, intelligent creatures. Animal rights will be granted a tremendous boon when natural animal tissue cultures can be grown in isolation. "Vat meat" will be cheaper and less resource-intensive than the present system. When people do not rely on factory farms or even death to eat meat, the justifications for the present system will be stripped away. Partisanship and in-group/out-group variation will always exist, and the world would be sad without diversity and stupid without disagreement ... yet separate groups will find ways to work together on the issues that most can agree with: clean air and water, health and education, the importance of community and family. Cities, towns, villages, and lonely farmland alike will be structured to support people. Walking and biking (and unicycling, rollerskating, skateboarding, skipping, hang-gliding, and dancing) to work will be a joy, a time to see your friends and the beauty around you, without any fearing for your life. The presently large and growing homeschooling, unschooling, and alternative education movement will come of age and begin working with the public education system to create free schooling that works, access to knowledge and mentors and tools that is an integrated, productive, voluntary part of society instead of institutionalization that segregates and silences its often-unwilling subjects. With the empowerment of children will come the empowerment of their parents and teachers and the minimization of bureaucracy. Radio/computer/communications technology will remain fairly decentralized, uncensored, and accessible to amateurs and hackers and everyone else. Electric cars will be used for some public transportation, and emergency response, and perhaps the occasional road trip, but the days of a daily automotive commute will be a peculiar quirk of history. Global shipping will be by means of advanced LTA (Lighter Than Air) technology, safe, stately, silent, fuel-efficient blimps. The oceans and forests will fall quiet again and the native inhabitants of the ocaen will be able to find their mates and prey. All lighting will be by means of smart LEDs, designed to reduce glare and eliminate wasteful spillover. Every child will know what stars look like; every child will know what silence sounds like. Productive gardens and native habitat will be everywhere, on rooftops and balconies, in houses and shared public spaces, outside of stores, lining walkways, and hanging in the air. We will honor warriors and lament wars. "Public breastfeeding" will be simply "breastfeeding". Economics will become a science; the philosophy behind applied economics will shift away from growth and the idea that markets are self-evidently moral; markets will be treated as powerful but neutral tools that can be used to shape the world towards agreed-upon issues. Most people, even Americans, will be bilingual (or more), speaking from birth an increasingly global language as well as a local native language. Cradle to Cradle design won; our technological resources will be recaptured with an efficiency asymptotically approaching 100%; it will become cheap and easy to recover our waste from an earlier, more thoughtless era and the landfills will be emptied and filtered clean. With increasingly efficient technology and the leveling off and then decreasing population and global development, misguided "growth" and further appropriation of resources will not be necessary - we will have "enough", and then we will have "more than enough"

It's a little later than you're thinking, but maybe we can interpolate.
 
 
Triplets
03:19 / 18.07.06
So... in the future we will have no need for paragraphs?
 
 
stabbystabby
04:16 / 18.07.06
no paragraphs, but compulsory italics...
 
 
*
04:18 / 18.07.06
I posted it as it was posted to me. I don't imagine the author is very much interested in editing it to make it more readable, since she died a few hours after writing it and probably either has more important things to think about or none at all. For the same reason, though, I don't think she'd mind if you copy-pasted it and reformatted it to make it more legible. I just feel lucky to have this.
 
 
*
04:19 / 18.07.06
The italics are mine though.
 
 
illmatic
05:40 / 18.07.06
That's a really nice bit of writing id. The social vision proposed reminds me a bit of Murray Bookchin's Post-Scarity Anarchism.
 
 
stabbystabby
05:47 / 18.07.06
uurgh. sorry about that. didn't mean to be so insensitive.
 
 
astrojax69
05:57 / 18.07.06
i wrote this in a paragraph in a novel i'm writing at the moment:

René liked to propagate his theory that we are currently in the middle to end of a particular era of history, one that will be defined by typing. Not so long ago, few people typed. It was the domain of specialists, an arcane skill. If you had to have something typed, you gave it to a little man from the village. Well, to a typing pool, without making waves. Now everyone types. Old people, ethnic people, all people. Type. QWERTY. Twenty thirty. That’s about when it will change. No-one born after that will type. A keyboard will be a relic in dust alongside horse-drawn carriages and cfc propellants as remnants of things mankind outgrew. Voices will be recognised. Brain waves. Intended consequences as a design element. No fucking about with mis-typing, mistakes and mystery. What a short period of history, qwerty. Quaint.


it is a bit stylised, but the thesis of no-one typing is my tip for the future - voices will give way to brainstates being mapped and deciphered.

i'm not quite so optimistic in my time frame as is rene, but he's fictional...


and thanks your post, id. i thought particularly beautiful was:

Every child will know what stars look like; every child will know what silence sounds like.

i am sorry for your loss.
 
 
stabbystabby
08:52 / 18.07.06
much as i would love to see a future like the one outlined above, i suspect it will be much less rosy.

I expect:

widespread adoption of nuclear technology as fossil fuels run out. the Australian govt is already negotiating with China to sell off some of our uranium for use in nuclear power plants. This will go hand in hand with poorer countries and countries with lots of space selling land for use as waste stockpiles (again, Australia is doing this already.)

this will lead to:

- widespread pollution of groundwater, the growth of the water purification industry and the complete capitalisation of the supply of water
- further dispossession of first nations people and rural communities
- large areas of land permanently polluted.


Also -
Hi-tech terrorism will increase, as affordable consumer technology (cell phones) and ex-military/sold off military stockpiles/mercenary stocks (cheap guns, plastic explosives, nuclear waste) is used by terrorist groups. This will to further crackdowns on civil liberties, widespread surveillance, de facto one party states and repression of leftist/autonomous groups.

The internet will be further fragmented into multiple state based internets - with China being mostly locked off from much of the internet, and repressive states banning it altogether or having it strictly controlled.

Israel will give up any pretense of caring about peace and declare open war against Palestine.

other possibilities:

the US dollar will collapse. this will lead to massive corporations reliant on US military intervention moving to Europe and moving to using mercenary and developing world military forces to achieve objectives.

international journalism will become near impossible as corrupt governments expel critical journalists. The US will no longer allow unembedded journalists and most media will be produced by military PR.

international travel will become too expensive for most people due to spiralling fuel prices.

state education will continue to be defunded, leading to a widening gap in education levels. universities will cost more and more, widening the class divide, locking the poorly educated out of most technical positions.

...

just a few thoughts, i hope they don't come true....
 
 
Dead Megatron
09:35 / 18.07.06
Computer viruses will develop self-awareness and start posting at Barbelith, leading to fierce arguments with Haus...

I'm assuming this is not happening already.
 
 
Jub
09:38 / 18.07.06
In 2016, the Chinese diaspora will have really taken off and there will have been a massive swing towards Chinese business practices generally, especially in textiles and traditional handcrafted goods. As a result of the European economy will have suffered and continued its trend toward a more serviced based economy.

In technology there will have been massive leaps in personal gadgets such that each person can tailor their individual preferences in many different areas, not just in music and internet habits, but in pretty much all aspects of life. I recently heard in Japan you can program your phone to load your dating preferences, and your phone will tell you when there are other available people nearby with similar interests. These trends will continue so that by the time we reach 2016 we will have virtually everything done for us.

Why not email yourself in 2016?
 
 
Spaniel
09:44 / 18.07.06
Interesting stuff about dating and phones. Been wondering when something like that would happen.
 
 
Quantum
10:05 / 18.07.06
Funnily enough I was part of a 'predict the future' thinktank for a county council once to tell the senior people what was going to happen in 20 years time in the UK. Lots of old people, loads of traffic jams, an overcrowded South East, high crime, etc.
The big thing will be water. Climate change is leading to both drought and flooding, but potable water is becoming a scarce resource even now- in ten years time we won't use drinking water to flush the bog or bathe in, there won't be enough.
 
 
Tryphena Absent
11:06 / 18.07.06
I wish we could have a scientific research colony on Mars by 2060. *sigh*
 
 
Triplets
11:37 / 18.07.06
Jub, that link is so terribly awesome. Thanks for sharing!
 
 
The resistable rise of Reidcourchie
13:00 / 18.07.06
Mobile phones will reach such a level of sophistication that they become sentient. Humans become little more than vehicles for the phones as they abrogate more and more of their lives to the devices. Genetic engineering creates "designer human mobility devices" for our phone masters causing a never ending style war for the most fashionable mobile sapiens.
 
 
*
15:55 / 18.07.06
(Just wanted to say it's all good, and thanks for putting up with that bit of self-indulgence. )
 
 
nixwilliams
05:45 / 19.07.06
grassroots organisations and pressure groups will have made green energy compulsory, organic farming will have the lion's share of the fresh produce market...

or perhaps i should just second the wasteland theory?
 
 
Jub
06:58 / 19.07.06
Countdown will still be on 4:30.
 
 
Princess
08:19 / 19.07.06
After the hard-line liberal voted in after Bush, America will pick a bland, politically neutral President. He will be very dull and often bow to the religous right due to their funding powers.

Unrelated to the above: Ostrich meat will be more popular.
 
  
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