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Random Number Generator Predicted Attacks

 
 
grant
15:10 / 26.09.01
Anybody else remember the bit in "Gravity's Rainbow" where the mathematician starts mapping V2 bomb sites by accident?

Well, it's really happening:
http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=817
quote:Amazingly, significant deviations have been noted in the randomness of data from these RNGs around times of major events in the world, including the terrorist attack of September 11.
 
 
grant
16:59 / 26.09.01
More on the Global Consciousness Project.

quote:It appears that consciousness may sometimes produce something that resembles, at least metaphorically, a nonlocal field. The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) takes this possibility as a starting point for a speculation that such fields generated by individual consciousness would interact and combine, and ultimately have a global presence. Usually, because we are busy with individual lives, there is little to produce structure in the field, so it is random and not detectable. But occasionally there are global-scale events that bring great numbers of us to a common focus and an unusual coherence of thought and feeling. To study the effects of a possible global consciousness, we have created a world-spanning network of detectors sensitive to coherence and resonance in the mental domain. Continuous streams of data are sent over the internet to be archived and correlated with events that may evoke a world-wide consciousness. Examples that appear to have done so include the funeral ceremonies of Princess Diana, a few minutes around midnight on any New Years Eve, the first hour of NATO bombing in Yugoslavia, several major earthquakes, and now the WTC disaster.
 
 
Not Here Still
18:06 / 26.09.01
Ahem. I take this as proof no-one reads my Laboratory threads.

Not having a go, like - just pointing it out.

[ 26-09-2001: Message edited by: JB again ]
 
 
grant
15:59 / 27.09.01
Yeesh. Bad me.
 
 
netbanshee
17:15 / 28.09.01
...well not scientific fact, but...

...not two weeks after this shit (WTC) goes down and my fairly solid family life has come under attack, my girlfriend's family is having issues, many of my friends are all over the place and it even seems that the "air" around here is a bit different too...global consciousness fractalling out...definitely. Hey numbers are representations...they should be changing too...
 
 
grant
18:49 / 28.09.01
One random number generator uses radio static for input, while others use lava lamps or radioactive substances.
 
 
Chuckling Duck
19:43 / 28.09.01
quote: Roger Nelson, Director of the GCP, and Dean Radin at the Institute of Noetic Sciences analyzed data from the RNG network on and around September 11 and found striking anomalies.

. . . really they did. Take their word for it.

quote: The GCP adds that statements about the number of passengers on the hijacked planes on September 11 being exceptionally low (even for a Tuesday after Labor Day, during an economic downturn, etc.) need careful examination. This may be a simple statistical fluke, or it may be that passengers somehow used precognition to instinctively avoid the doomed flights.

Or it could mean that the terrorists chose flights that their research had indicated were likely to have few passengers, since the fewer passengers they had to contend with, the more likely their plans were to succeed, perhaps even buying extra tickets under assumed names.

Occam's razor.
 
 
Perfect Tommy
12:01 / 29.09.01
While the idea is intriguing, the flippant comment that leaps to mind is, "Economists have predicted 11 of the last 4 recessions."
 
 
grant
19:05 / 19.02.02
this was just in the Daily Mail, by the way, written up by Colin Wilson.
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
13:45 / 20.02.02
Occam's Razor is a set of nineteenth and early twentieth century 'rationalist' and logical positivist (A.J. Ayer school) assumptions about the nature of the Universe. It's utterly useless save for trashing ideas which are at odds with accepted reality - you can use it to make a case for or against Gallileo. It's an empty frame into which the user inserts current prejudices.
 
 
Kit-Cat Club
13:49 / 20.02.02
Really? I thought it was this:

Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate.

Did Ayer et al twist it?
 
 
grant
13:50 / 20.02.02
From the Daily Mail piece:

quote:>>>
In fact, what I discovered was even more astonishing: that a machine at Princeton University in New Jersey had forecast some major disaster nearly three hours before the first plane struck the World Trade Centre.

THIS sounds absurd. So let me explain how the machine works. It is called a Random Event Generator, and it uses sophisticated technology to generate two numbers - one and nought - in a completely unpredictable sequence, rather like an electronic coin-flipper.

The pattern of ones and noughts - 'heads' and 'tails' - can then be printed out as a graph, showing the chance fluctuations whenever one value turns up more frequently than the other.

In 1977, a Princeton scientist named Robert Jahn conducted experiments to see whether this 'coin-flipper' could be influenced by human mental effort.

He brought in strangers off the street and asked them to concentrate their minds on the machine. In effect, he was asking them to try to make it flip more heads than tails.

The results were amazing. Again and again, total strangers proved that their minds could influence the machine and produce significant fluctuations on the graph, showing that one value was turning up much more frequently than the other.

Jahn's friend and colleague Roger Nelson then had an even more bizarre idea.

When he heard that a group of yoga enthusiasts were organising a global 'meditation for peace', he decided to link together Random Event Generators all over the world to see whether this burst of meditation, involving thousands of people, would influence their readings.

That, admittedly, sounds preposterous. At least Jahn's subjects had been consciously trying to influence the machines; what Nelson was asking was whether meditators could have the same effect without any conscious effort at all.

Preposterous or not, the results were more startling than ever. Not only were the generators influenced by the global burst of meditation, but the effect was seven times greater than had ever been achieved with volunteers.

From then on, Roger Nelson was unstoppable. He connected up 40 Random Event Generators all over the world, linked them to his laboratory computer in Princeton, and kept the recorder going day and night.

Most of the time, the graph-pen made a wavy horizontal line across the paper, with a few minor variations, like a calm sea with the occasional small wave.

But during the funeral of Princess Diana in September 1997 - which of course was televised all over the world - the graph shot up like a mountain.

And, as if to show that this was no fluke, it rose again (albeit rather less strongly) just a week later during the funeral of Mother Teresa.

Nelson admits his own astonishment about this. But it looks as if great outbursts of emotion can influence these electronic coin-flippers without anybody intending to.

It soon became apparent that the graph responded to happy events as well as upsetting ones. Just before midnight on New Year's Eve, 1998, the graph peaked at the very moment that lots of happy revellers were singing Auld Lang Syne. The connection was impossible to ignore because it peaked again, always just before midnight, at different time zones around the world. And to prove this was not some freak effect, the same thing happened on New Year's Eves in 1999, 2000 and again at the end of last year.

YOU can probably already guess what happened as the World Trade Centre disaster unfolded on the morning of September 11. The graph peaked like the Eiffel Tower between 9am and 10am, New York time, just as the first horrific images were being relayed across the globe.

But what seems even more astonishing is that the graph had started its rise soon after 6am. That was about three hours before the first hijacked jet hit the World Trade Centre. Why should this be so? Unless we put all the results down to the most extraordinary coincidence, I believe there is only one explanation.

As I am about to show, hundreds of thousands of ordinary people experienced premonitions of disaster in the run-up to the attack. I believe it was this surge of fear and distress that began to show itself on the graph three hours before the attack began.

Such feelings will have affected Roger Nelson's machines just as surely as grief for Diana or joy on New Year's Eve. And, in doing so, they sent out a terrible warning of the impending catastrophe.
>>>
Roger Nelson believes that his equipment is somehow recording a new form of consciousness that is being developed by the human race: global consciousness.

This is an idea that was originally put forward more than half a century ago, by the French biologist and Catholic priest Teilhard de Chardin. He suggested that the earth was developing a new spiritual dimension that he called the 'noosphere' (noos is Greek for mind).

Roger Nelson explains his own version of the concept by pointing out how human beings often have the feeling that their minds are united with those of others.

For example, when an audience is carried away by a great performance of a symphony, it is as if their minds are united together.

Sceptics will point to those words 'as if', and argue that the unity is just an illusion - that, in reality, the audience all remain separate individuals.

But this has been disproved by a scientific experiment in Las Vegas.

In 1991, an audience of 5,000 people was asked by a scientist called Loren Carpenter to play a giant game of electronic pingpong. All of them were given individual controls linked to a giant screen; then the audience was divided into two halves, with one half playing against the other.

Within a few minutes, the two halves - each of 2,500 people - were playing exactly like two individuals. The whole audience was then connected to a flight simulator, and went on to guide a plane through a difficult landing, just as if they had become a single person.

The conclusion is plain: human minds can indeed unite together, just like two raindrops coalescing.
>>>
Hapgood then found himself tantalised by an even more dramatic possibility.

If people could be regressed to the past, could they also be sent forward to the future?

He decided to find out - and the results were remarkable.

Under hypnosis, a student named Jay was told to go forward to the following Wednesday. He described the events of the day - luncheon menu, class assignments, tests - in some detail.

Asked where he was now, he said he was at the local airport, and that he had met a pilot from Montpelier, Vermont, who had been able to clear up the details of a rather puzzling plane crash that had occurred a year earlier.

Emerging from his trance, Jay had no memory of the predictions he had made.

The following Wednesday evening, Hapgood asked him about his day.

Sure enough, Jay said that he had been to the local airport, where he had had a chance meeting with a flier from Montpelier, who told him all about the puzzling plane crash. The remaining details of his day - food, assignments, etc - corresponded closely to what he had said the previous Sunday.

Another student named Henry was 'progressed' to the following Thursday. He explained that he was going to the nearby town of Brattleboro to get drunk, and was going to borrow a friend's car.

Progressed a few hours further, he described how he was drinking in a cafe with two women, who were making improper advances to him, and criticising their husbands.

Even under hypnosis, Henry declined to repeat their remarks, obviously finding them too embarrassing. He described how he finally arrived home at 2am, and woke up the household when the dog barked.

ONCE again, he had no memory of these predictions when he emerged from the trance. The following Friday, Hapgood saw Henry in the Student Union building and said: 'I know where you were last night.' 'I bet you don't,' said Henry.

'You went to Brattleboro,' shot back Hapgood.

Henry looked surprised. He was even more surprised when Hapgood told him whose car he had borrowed, and how he had gone to a cafe and met two women.

'You don't know what they said?' Henry asked in alarm, and Hapgood laughed and said: 'No, you refused to tell us.'

Henry also confirmed that he had arrived home at 2am and that the dog had woken up the household.

What Hapgood seems to have proved is that our unconscious minds know all about the future, and that under hypnosis we can uncover this knowledge.
>>>>
The case had first been recorded by the parapsychologist Louisa Rhine, and concerned a woman who dreamed that she was on a camping holiday, and took her baby with her when she went down to the river to wash some clothes.

In her dream, the woman forgot the soap, and left the baby while she went to fetch it. When she returned, the baby lay drowned with his head in the water.

Months later, on a camping holiday, the woman went to wash some clothes in a river when she suddenly recognised the place as the scene of her dream.

Again, she had her baby with her, and again she realised she had forgotten the soap.

Forewarned by her dream, when she went back for the soap she tucked the baby safely under her arm. In doing so, she changed the future that she herself had predicted - and saved her baby's life.

Precognitive dreams like this seem to be one of the most frequent methods that our unconscious minds adopt to give us glimpses of what is to come.
>>>>
 
 
MJ-12
14:06 / 20.02.02
Has Barbara Elith commented on this?
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
14:18 / 20.02.02
quote:Originally posted by Kit-Cat Club:
Really? I thought it was this:

Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate.

Did Ayer et al twist it?
Oh, foop. You're quite right, although certainly its application in my life has always been by Ayer's inheritors.

The point is, it hinges on the definition of 'necessity', which will always be subjective, or it takes a rationalist approach by saying that the universe defaults to the simple, which is either demonstrably untrue or tautological, depending on how you define 'simple'.
 
 
Kit-Cat Club
14:26 / 20.02.02
Fair enough.
 
 
grant
18:28 / 20.02.02
quote:Originally posted by MJ-12:
Has Barbara Elith commented on this?


Why yes, as a matter of fact, and in a manner of speaking....
 
 
gozer the destructor
11:09 / 27.02.02
ockams knapsack

has anybody read this in regard to ockam's razor, i found it funny if nothing else

 
 
mr insensitive
09:06 / 02.03.02
This reminds me about an article in New Scientist a few months ago, regarding Omega numbers; the hidden numbers between 0 and 1, and how this theory fits into the idea of order beneath the fractured nature of our universe. I shall try to find it in google...
 
 
Tom Coates
09:29 / 02.03.02
Surely Occam's Razor is simply a statement that suggests the basic scientific premise that things should be reduced to their simplest tenets. Or to put it another way - that when presented with theories that require a lot of 'but ifs' and 'however whens' and 'but in the case of's, then one should be looking for a simpler principle that underlies all the cases...?
 
 
Lurid Archive
09:29 / 02.03.02
Absolutely, Tom. There are always explanations of things that are over complicated (ridiculous, I'd say)
eg The fairies/aliens/lizards/commies/men in black/Loki/Djinn did it. They have their own "mysterious" reasons for doing so, that you are too small minded to comprehend.

Occam's razor sort of sifts out all the bullshit. Sort of. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong though...
 
 
Tom Coates
09:29 / 02.03.02
Agreed - rule of thumb - not law of nature.
 
 
Bill Posters
12:33 / 02.03.02
I'm a. fascinated and b. too ignorant of the math + stats etc to have much to contribute other than two questions.

1. Tragic, preventable death and suffering on a greater scale then the S11 fatalities ocurrs in the developing world on a daily basis. Has this ever shown up on one of these RNG's?

2. How can there be "a deviation from the random"? I mean, isn't ramdom just, um, well, random? If someone could spell this out to me in very simple terms I'd be greatful.
 
 
Elijah, Freelance Rabbi
13:52 / 02.03.02
what i think they mean is that random is random, but in a 50/50 coin flipping situation this will generally balance over time.
deviation would be 600 head and 2 tails in 4 hours time
 
 
Bill Posters
14:42 / 02.03.02
Ah.

Ta.
 
 
w1rebaby
22:31 / 02.03.02
quote:How can there be "a deviation from the random"? I mean, isn't ramdom just, um, well, random?
this is actually quite a deep question. Statistical analysis of "randomness" is to my mind just a sort of inductive reasoning. The fact that fair coin tosses have a 50-50 distribution over an infinite number of tosses makes literally zero difference to any finite number of observations.

I wish I'd kept doing maths and philosophy, but I quit before the good stuff started coming up. Then again, if I'd carried on doing maths over computer science, I wouldn't have a job, and I wouldn't be posting here.
 
 
Bill Posters
11:30 / 03.03.02
Well that's sort of what had been bugging me; what exactly constitutes a 'deviation' as opposed to a non-deviation. All I know about stats is that the definition of statistical significance is something of a moot point. Unless they're faking data, they must have seen something, but whether that something is anything other than a random fluctuation who can say?
 
 
Lurid Archive
08:25 / 04.03.02
quote:Originally posted by w1rebaby:

The fact that fair coin tosses have a 50-50 distribution over an infinite number of tosses makes literally zero difference to any finite number of observations.


Actually, this is incorrect. It does make a difference, its just that this difference is not absolute. If you have a fair coin then it is increasingly unlikely that you dont get an approx. 50/50 distribution of heads and tails as you throw it more and more. This is a bit fuzzy of course, but you can't really expect anything to be absloute.
 
 
w1rebaby
10:05 / 04.03.02
quote:If you have a fair coin then it is increasingly unlikely that you dont get an approx. 50/50 distribution of heads and tails as you throw it more and more.

You can't use words like "unlikely" if we're talking about probability in terms of distribution... so the distribution of the coin tosses tends towards 50-50 as the number of tosses tends towards infinity? Except that it wouldn't necessarily, because a fair coin could still come up heads every time it was tossed, for any finite number of tosses.

So perhaps the distribution of the distribution of all coin tosses? Except what if, since it's all random, all the fair coins anyone ever tosses come down 49-51? (What if there's an odd number of coin tosses?) The distribution of the distribution of the distribution of all coin tosses across all universes, then?

If there are any real mathematicians reading this they're probably grinding their teeth to powder right now.
 
 
Lurid Archive
11:27 / 04.03.02
OK, I was being loose on purpose since I dont think that its very illuminating to discuss it in detail. But if you are going to pull me up on it...

Throw your coin n times and count the number of heads as a proportion of the total number thrown.

Now you'd expect the number of heads to be approx. one half of the total. Allow some leeway (this bit is up to you). So for instance you might want the proportion to be within one millionth of a half.

Next decide on some very small probability - this should be some number that represents a very unlikely outcome. Say, 1 in a trillion trillion, or so.

Given your leeway for the proportion and your criteria for the unlikely event, then there is a number n (the number of tosses) so that the chances of the actual proportion you get being outside the range you specify is less than the probability you gave.

If you can follow that, what it says is that as the number of tosses increases then its increasingly unlikely that you dont get approx. 50/50 distribution of heads and tails.

In any reasonable interpretation, it says that you can be pretty damn certain of getting extremely close to that 50/50. Mathematically you can get an arbitrary degree of accuracy, which is as good as you need since imperfections in the coin mean that no coin is fair anyway.

[ 04-03-2002: Message edited by: Lurid Archive ]
 
 
w1rebaby
12:18 / 04.03.02
quote:Given your leeway for the proportion and your criteria for the unlikely event, then there is a number n (the number of tosses) so that the chances of the actual proportion you get being outside the range you specify is less than the probability you gave.

okay, I think I'm with you, you can produce confidence intervals and so on.

But I still have a problem with the whole business in that you are defining one probability in terms of another. You can describe the distribution but you're always describing it in terms of probabilities.
 
 
Lurid Archive
12:36 / 04.03.02
quote:Originally posted by w1rebaby:

But I still have a problem with the whole business in that you are defining one probability in terms of another. You can describe the distribution but you're always describing it in terms of probabilities.


Of course. As you rightly say, it is always possible that a fair coin will turn up all heads when you toss it however many times. You can make this probability very small though - eg smaller than the chance that all the oxygen molecules in your room suddenly turn into gold, or somesuch. Of course, the time taken to throw the coins would then probably be longer than the reasonable life expectancy of the universe....

As I said, the answer isn't absolute. But what is?
 
 
Bill Posters
08:07 / 10.03.02
quote:Originally posted by Lurid Archive:
As I said, the answer isn't absolute.


Absolutely.
 
 
grant
15:39 / 16.02.05
There were anomalous readings before the tsunami, too.

One of the things Nelson (the guy behind the project) points out is that there's no way to tell what kind of event these anomalies indicate. There's only hindsight -- oh, so THAT'S what that was about.
 
  
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