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Was the 2004 Election Stolen?

 
 
Keith, like a scientist
16:37 / 05.06.06
Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

I never quite bought into the idea that there was a huge effort by the GOP to tamper the 04 election...it seemed too paranoid and incredible to be real, or to have been accomplished without raising red flags all over the place.

This article has convinced me, though. I had no idea that the exit polls have become so accurate that they are frequently used to verify the honesty of elections in other countries, such as in the Ukraine, Republic of Georgia, and Mexico.

This article is unreal, and it's going unreported by the mainstream news media.
 
 
Spyder Todd 2008
19:08 / 05.06.06
That's quite the article. Quite well researched and coming from a fairly respected public figure. Do you know when the article was dated?
 
 
Dead Megatron
19:44 / 05.06.06
and it's going unreported by the mainstream news media.

Yeah, "I'd make a 1984 reference, but it seems to obvious...". The US people simply will never admit to themselves that they no longer (and maybe never did) live in a democracy, but a plutocracy, where the Big Corp, in control of the Media, the politics, and the election, will get away with pretty much anything. And the Media, being the Rich Man's forman, will never have the guts to push the truth down their throat, for a change.

Armed revolution way overdue? Talk amongst yourselves
 
 
Keith, like a scientist
20:01 / 05.06.06
Do you know when the article was dated?

I believe it is brand new. I thought I saw a June 1, 2006 date somewhere related to it.
 
 
alas
01:02 / 06.06.06
Yes--it was first put up on the RollingStone website on June 1 and is in the newstands now, I believe. Here's an article about it and some links so you can ask major news sources to cover the story already!.
 
 
Jake, Colossus of Clout
02:46 / 06.06.06
Harper's Magazine had an article about this last year. Here it is, for those interested.
 
 
Nobody's girl
10:06 / 06.06.06
Where've you been?
 
 
Nobody's girl
12:17 / 06.06.06
This too.
 
 
Spyder Todd 2008
03:02 / 13.06.06
Robert Kennedy Jr. was just on The Colbert Report speaking about his article. I figure that's good, it seems to be gaining at least a little attention.
 
 
Solitaire Rose as Tom Servo
16:02 / 17.06.06
The problem with the article (and Kennedy himself admitted it in an interview) is that there isn't any hard evidence for the claims. Most of the article is conjecture and opinion, and in the current "Right winger says this, left winger says that, reporter tells you what they said and moves on" style of news reporting, you've got have have hard evidence and big bombshells for a story to have legs.

I do believe, however, that after Florida in 2000, the fix was in, and we will see Republicans winning electons even with their terrible poll numbers for quite a while.
 
 
*
01:16 / 18.06.06
you've got have have hard evidence and big bombshells for a story to have legs.

Like the hard evidence of WMDs we had when the media was reporting that Iraq had WMDs? That story didn't have legs, it had a fucking TankChair. *grumbles, not really directed at anyone in particular*
 
 
Jake, Colossus of Clout
02:01 / 18.06.06
threadrot Tankchair is fucking awesome! /threadrot
 
 
bacon
19:15 / 18.06.06
as far as these things go, "the great game" is a dirty business, wouldn't we be best represented by the most successful of the devious bastards, which the neocons seem to be?

iraq has been a success when viewed through the evilprickascope, we're building an embassy/base/fortress/deathstar in baghdad that's bigger than the frickin vatican, oil production is back up to pre-invasion levels and every cent generated by that oil is funneled through the bank of new york

we got bases and troops deployed in a strategic goldmine of a location and we control the (?third?) largest proven oil reserves in the world

so they blew a bit of smoke up the collective US/UK citizens asses to get themselves in their, if they had come out and just said "we're going to jack iraq, and as a result, the united states and britain will be in a better position to maintain global hegemony" i don't think it would've worked out as well, plausible deniability is a wonderous tool
 
 
quixote
04:00 / 19.06.06
Solitaire: The point is, we DO have hard evidence. The skewness of the exit polls has no credible chance of happening randomly (which would be the only honest way for it to happen). This is true even if you accept the argument that exit polls are not as accurate as Kennedy says. Even if they're only accurate to within 3%, they should be wrong equally, on both sides. In other words, if some exit polls wrongly predicted a Kerry win, an approximately equal number should have wrongly predicted a Bush win. That's the nature of random events. Instead, almost every single one of the exit poll errors was to predict a win for Kerry where the actual results made Bush the winner. In just three states, the chances of that were on the order of 1:600,000. That's assuming exit polls are very accurate. Assume less accuracy, and you're still at, say, 1:200,000. It's just off the charts. And that's only three states. The pattern was repeated in counties all over the country. The chances of getting that many skewed results are billions to one.

That is hard evidence.

What you meant, I think, is that there was no obvious mechanism, which is true. Nobody is sure how it was done. A million little things just seem to have added up. If anyone bothered to investigate, maybe we could find out. But, interestingly, all investigations get squelched, derailed, or plain lied to. (Conyers investigated the Ohio situation and was given false data by the Secretary of State for Ohio.)

So the election was definitely stolen. We just don't know how.
 
 
Dexter Graves
07:49 / 19.06.06
When I speak of us as Americans, I speak of a collective. We are all participants in this mess and we are all responsible for the travesty it has wrought.

This story on rigged elections is nothing new. It happened six years ago and it has happened again. This is just the first time the dirt on the 2004 election has been published by a well known political figure through a major news outlet (if you think of Rolling Stone as news). Let's just face the truth, everyone: Democracy is dead in America! Our people are too weak to engage in acts of civil disobediance and risk jail. We're a placid, meek, comfortable population enslaved by our cowardice, narcissism and greed.

We will sit in apathy and watch while all our rights our siphoned away. We won't see any real change until someone tries to start another draft. Then things will get interesting. I'm not being liberal when I say this, I'm being pragmatic: we will suffer and this is no less than what we deserve for our addiction to the comfort of denial.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
09:57 / 19.06.06
That is hard evidence.

Unfortunately, it isn't. It may seem very convincing, but it remains circumstantial. Hard evidence would provide a definite causal link between these results and Republican interference and, until that evidence exists, I'm not sure what more can be done with this except to add it to the pile marked "suggestive of crooked electioneering", and keep looking for the causal link.
 
 
elene
10:43 / 19.06.06
If we take it that democracy is indeed dead in America, when those of you who disapprove of this situation do decide to change things, how do you imagine you'll do so, Dexter? Will an unmistakable majority vote in a party with essentially different policies who'll role back the changes of recent years? Would the Democrats do that? Might you have to bring General Zinni out of retirement and stage a coup d'état? Joking! He won't, but it might be a good idea to ask him what you can do, for it can't be much or easy.

I used to think that as a country's citizens became wealthier and better educated the country would become more democratic and less oppressive. I was fooled by Europe's internal politics, I suppose. It's doesn't seem to be the case at all.
 
 
Solitaire Rose as Tom Servo
05:02 / 20.06.06
quixote, math doesn't hold up in the style of politics we have now. In a country where people dismiss science as wrong, the analysis of the numbers would wither during the first debate on Bill O'Reilly, and the public would fall back on the idea that it's just a bunch of "sore losers".

I mean, if people didn't get upset that a county made up a terrorist threat to get the reporters out so that they could conduct a vote count without observers, exit polls would be dismissed out of hand.

Then again, I wish I knew how to wake people up to just how crooked the voting was in 2004...I just can't think of a solid way to distill it down for the people who don't pay a lot of attention to the news.
 
 
quixote
20:15 / 20.06.06
Haus and Solitaire: I beg to differ. Evidence is evidence. And statistics skewed so far from random are evidence. If they weren't, we wouldn't have physics, biology, chemistry, or any other science. All their results depend on proof which generally (except for the laws of gravity and evolution) depend on slimmer levels of proof than what we have here.

What you're saying is that we don't have evidence that will stand up in a court of law. That is true. The legal system is stuck in the Middle Ages and hasn't caught up to what statistics means yet. It's also true, as I said before and as you've pointed out, that we don't have the mechanisms all worked out. The fact that we don't know how it was done is the biggest sticking point preventing many people from seeing _that_ it was done. By the same reasoning, though, we should all assume we can fly. All we know about gravity is that it happens. Nobody really has worked out exactly how.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
22:28 / 20.06.06
What you're saying is that we don't have evidence that will stand up in a court of law. That is true.

Well, yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. I had no idea that another standard of evidence - that is, evidence which has no relevance whatsoever to any possible impact this might have on the current administration of the United States of America - was being held up here.

Incidentally, there's quite a lot of prior art on gravity.

Now, we can certainly decide that if somebody does not agree with us then they are not looking at the evidence right. I do that all the time. However, these arguments are often about whether My Bloody Valentine is a really good band. If you want to impeach the President, you need to give a little more, is all.
 
 
Jake, Colossus of Clout
04:08 / 21.06.06
I used to think that as a country's citizens became wealthier and better educated the country would become more democratic and less oppressive. I was fooled by Europe's internal politics, I suppose. It's doesn't seem to be the case at all.

I'm not sure I understand this statement. Are you saying that the average American is becoming wealthier and better educated? Because I don't think that's the case at all.
 
 
elene
07:59 / 21.06.06
Are you saying that the average American is becoming wealthier and better educated? Because I don't think that's the case at all.

Really? I thought the USA did quite well in recent PISA quality of education assessments? Oh, you're right - I just checked the preliminary report for '03 and it's not that good at all. So the USA is by far the richest country in the world, a democracy that spends more money on it's military than everyone else combined spends on theirs, but the average American is becoming poorer and more ignorant? Is it meant to be like this?

Sorry, I'm being flippant, and I was in my last post too. This is what I was really asking.

Of course the USA is still a democracy, even a liberal democracy, but President Bush has created a war (against terror) that can never end and he has asserted a philosophy that insists that the commander-in-chief be almost untouchable as the vested representative of the executive (accept at the polls, of course). He has strongly exploited his exceptional wartime powers as commander-in-chief to restrict the rights of individual US citizens to an unprecedented degree, and he is very insistent about his need for a line-veto on legislation that will, should he receive it, as he likely will, permit him to keep or reject arbitrary items in any bill passed to him, leaving it up to Congress to challenge him on each point, or let it go. Even without this power the President typically only signs a bill along with a signing statement asserting his right to interpret the bill as he sees fit, helping construct an zone of unaccountability around almost everything he does.

This President has considerably more power than a President has ever held before. With the Republicans controlling Congress and the line-veto he will have almost unlimited power.

In addition to this there is every reason to suspect that elections are being instrumented.

OK, it's just this sort of arrangement that leads to Russia being labelled strongly undemocratic, but the USA has one great advantage over Russia: the Democrats might get elected next time. At least, let's presume they might, for it's certainly either Democrat or Republican.

What I'm asking is this: if the Democrats are elected, will they role all these changes back, giving up all that power, or will they keep it and - you know - use it for the good of mankind?
 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
10:36 / 21.06.06
My understanding is that the Clintons are both fairly conservative Democrats, and Hilary has spent the time since Bill left the White House being fairly conservative wiht a small 'c', supporting the wars, abstaining from any moves to impeach Bush, keeping quiet on reproductive freedoms (all IIRC, and I might not), so if she gets in she might not hurry to give up these things. She clearly doesn't want to be seen as soft on illusory targets.
 
 
elene
11:10 / 21.06.06
Oh, I know most Democrats were for the Iraq war and even now only want to debate America's best interests in this regard. That's not what I'm asking though.

The Republicans have eroded rights and partially disabled the political system of checks and balances in the USA under Bush, and I want to know whether the Democrats will restore the system to its original state if elected. I think it ought to be a certainty that they will, but I'm almost certain they won't. In fact I've never heard one of them touch on this subject at all. I hope someone will tell me I'm wrong.

If they don't then Democrat/Republican is a single entity, a good cop/bad cop pair representing a very small ruling elite and it's corporate interests and democracy is indeed dead in the USA. Some people will say that's obvious, but surely not everyone?
 
 
Lurid Archive
08:11 / 22.06.06
Unfortunately, it isn't. It may seem very convincing, but it remains circumstantial. Hard evidence would provide a definite causal link between these results and Republican interference and, until that evidence exists, I'm not sure what more can be done with this except to add it to the pile marked "suggestive of crooked electioneering", and keep looking for the causal link. - Haus

I think Haus is probably right here, though this really is as much about inconsistency and innumeracy as anything else. After all, "fingerprints" are accepted as hard(er) evidence, rather than circumstantial, and I doubt that the statistical hoops such evidence has to jump through are any more demanding than what we have here with the exit polls.

The lack of a causal link is a problem, and though the Rolling Stone article does make some attempt at providing such mechanisms, a comprehensive investigation is needed. I think we can agree that the statistical evidence provides a compelling justification for mounting such an investigation, though I doubt that there will actually be one.
 
 
Nobody's girl
09:45 / 22.06.06
Here's a few links from the "Help America Recount" thread for those of you who find it hard to believe there's much evidence of election fraud:

VotersUnite.org Has a huge list of voting irregularities not just from 2004, but also from local elections in 2005.

Votergate.tv Has a film showing the investigations some concerned citizens have made into voting irregularities with some very damning evidence.

commondreams.org has an article about how the quantative methods research team in Berkeley university released a report about irregularities in electronic voting machines in Florida in the 2004 election.
 
 
quixote
16:32 / 22.06.06
"evidence provides a compelling justification for mounting an investigation"

Lurid Archive and Nobody's Girl: that was precisely my point. Obviously if the real-world evidence (as opposed to the stand-up-in-court kind) was unclear, there'd be no point spending millions investigating. The real world evidence is overwhelming. The chance that it's wrong is on the order of your fingerprints actually belonging to someone else. (An excellent example!) Investigations are more than warranted. And, interestingly enough, as Nobody's Girl's links show, they have been actively stymied and sabotaged.

The other difficulty with understanding the scale of this thing is its distributed nature. It's like all of us with our little CO2-belching cars. My little Honda, by itself, does (almost) nothing, but all together, excess CO2 could wreck the planet. In the same way, each specific instance of problems--twelve votes here, five hundred there--aren't going to change the course of the election. Each type of fraud varied, too. Sometimes black people were intimidated from voting, sometimes votes were spoiled, sometimes the machines didn't work, and so on through about fifteen separate types of problems. But all the problems tended to have the same result, just as all cars spew CO2, not oxygen. The law has no way to deal with additive effects, whether it's global warming or stolen elections. But it's still essential to stop them, which is why real evidence matters, and court evidence is secondary.

The problem is understanding how all this could happen. I've been so puzzled by this that I wrote a post thinking about it, the gist of it being:

"
I think the hardest part about all this is how thousands, or at least hundreds, of people could work together without central instructions. In some cases there are clear indications of coordination, but there are also lots of cases where stuff just seemed to happen. Those are the ones that cause the disbelief problem.

But think about it. Thousands of people do the same things without central direction all the time. If they didn't, advertising would be useless. If they didn't, discrimination wouldn't be a problem. All that's needed for concerted action is a shared frame of reference.

Well, the Republican party recently has morphed into the party of winners. Winning is everything. Anything goes. ... So, if anything goes, and winning is everything, how hard is it to see that committed lineworkers might all bend the rules in the same direction? "
 
 
Nobody's girl
14:56 / 23.06.06
Article about how the Republicans are disenfranchising minority voters.


Here’s what happened in ‘04 — and what’s in store for ‘08.

In the 2004 election, over THREE MILLION voters were challenged at the polls. No one had seen anything like it since the era of Jim Crow and burning crosses. In 2004, voters were told their registrations had been purged or that their addresses were “suspect.”

Denied the right to the regular voting booths, these challenged voters were given “provisional” ballots. Over a million of these provisional ballots (1,090,729 of them) were tossed in the electoral dumpster uncounted.

Funny thing about those ballots. About 88% were cast by minority voters.

This isn’t a number dropped on me from a black helicopter. They come from the raw data of the US Election Assistance Commission in Washington, DC.
 
  
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