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Ariel Sharon Suffers Stroke

Spyder Todd 2008

21:01 / 04.01.06

Ariel Sharon Suffers "Massive Bleeding"

I'm curious of the implications this has on Middle Eastern politics in the coming days. I admit my knowledge isn't as good as it should be, so I welcome other peoples thoughts. I'll put forth some of my own as soon as I find time...

21:13 / 04.01.06

Its a very good question and the answers a very much up in the air as Sharon has recently played a significant part in redrawing Israel's political map, quiting the right of centre party he helped found to start a new centerist party.

Whatever happens to him in the immediate future, Sharon has already put massive things in motion...

21:35 / 04.01.06

Massive bleeding on the brain reported and is said to be fighting for his life...

The signs are not looking good.

21:53 / 04.01.06

Bad news, all in all, despite his unsavoury history. Five years ago, Sharon out of the picture might have improved conditions, or before his Temple Mount stunt kicked off another Intifada, but not now that he's out of Likud and trying to build a more centrist, more conciliatory political base. I suspect that won't be coming any time soon anyway but it needed a big beast like Sharon to have half a chance of achieving it.

Tryphena Absent

22:02 / 04.01.06

As he was taken to hospital in an ambulance it would seem that he suffered cerebral bleeding for quite a long period before he reached hospital. So even if he survives he'll probably be brain damaged.

I'm curious about what's going to happen to Kadima, whether it will survive this amount of upheaval. I can't imagine him recovering enough to lead the party.

22:07 / 04.01.06

The analyists I've been listening to don't rate the new movement's chances without Sharon at the head...

03:55 / 05.01.06

Kadima is too new to survive without Sharon. I suppose Peres could try to play his long-standing role of stepping up to the plate and filling in when someone people will actually vote for dies, but he's too left, too old, too blah to actually take control of the party, much less get votes and form a government if he could somehow pull that off. I hope he doesn't try. Can't he retire already with his dignity intact?

If Kadima totally falls apart, we're left with Bibi vs Peretz, which I think probably goes to Bibi, which sucks. I kind of want to look at the numbers. I don't think I know enough about the demographics and the current breakdown of power in the Knesset to figure out how the chips are going to fall.

05:57 / 05.01.06

There's some symmetry to Sharon not outliving Arafat by too long. Historical aesthetics aside, Netanyahu vs. Perez is a crappy choice. On the other hand, the present situation may force whoever wins to sober up.

From the outside:

Post-9/11, Bush gave Sharon a free pass to tear the Palestinians a new one in the name of fighting terrorism globally by suppressing them locally. Sharon returned the favor by egging Bush on to attack Iraq. (Before that, Reagan and the US fundies encouraged the Israeli adventure in Lebanon, in which Sharon played a large part, including allowing the infamous massacres of Sabra and Shatila.)

4-1/2 years on, Bush is on the ropes or at least distracted (more than usual). The US fundies's support for Israel is revealed to be just a hardon for Armageddon (resulting, by the way, in the deaths of far more than 6 million Jews - Thank God, G*d or the FSM the Cold War is over). So Israel are sort of on their own for now.

Iraq is another mess on Israel's doorstep, a national recruiting depot for anti-Israeli terrorists, irregular soldiers and possibly regular soldiers. Iran is fairly close to having the atom bomb, and certainly have medium-range ballistic missiles, and they'll certainly retalitate if Israel tries a surgical strike on the nuclear plant(s). The Iranians are probably not stupid enough to keep their missiles near their atom bomb factory, so Israel would need at least two successful strikes.

So basically, the winners in Israeli politics might as well leave the hot rhetoric to Iran's President Ahmedinejad and concentrate on sorting out their economy and, what the hell, let Hamas stand for elections. Let the Palestinians see how well the Hamas jihadis can lay down water and sewage lines and run buses instead of blowing them up.

unheimlich manoeuvre

06:07 / 05.01.06

Did Sharon had become more moderate in his later years, due to failing health? Perhaps he became aware his own mortality?
I'm not sure. Sharon was in the military and consistently hawkish on matters of Israeli security. Kadima was always destined to be conservative by European standards. His natural successor is Netanyahu, especially in reaction to the popularity of Hamas and the upcoming Palestinian elections.
It's frightening to think how Israel's relations with Iran will develop.

11:19 / 05.01.06

My housemate put it thus - he may have abused human rights and been nigh genocidel, but the alternative is quite frightening.

I hope he has put enough in place to make sure that if he passes things don't take a turn for the worst.

Our Lady Has Left the Building

13:49 / 05.01.06

Does this mean another Netenyahu prime ministership this year? Seeing as the reporting of politics from Israel is woeful in this country, I'm unclear as to how scary that prospect is. Would Bibi be likely to reverse Sharon's withdrawls and send troops and settlers back in, or was he against it for political advantage but wouldn't undo it in practice?

04:55 / 06.01.06

Did Sharon had become more moderate in his later years, due to failing health? Perhaps he became aware his own mortality?

I think it's more that he got sick of the never-ending stalemate, and he realized most voters would be happy to give up Gaza in exchange for progress towards a real solution to the whole issue. Plus, having given up Gaza, he wouldn't seem like he was overreaching to cement his grip on the parts of the West Bank he most wanted to keep. Basically, he wanted to get shit done, and so he started the process of unilaterally redrawing the map to his liking and presenting it to the Palestinians and the world at large as a fait accompli, knowing that everyone would accept it, however begrudingly, in order to finally have the Palestinian issue settled.

Would Bibi be likely to reverse Sharon's withdrawls and send troops and settlers back in, or was he against it for political advantage but wouldn't undo it in practice?

I don't think he'd have the clout. Outside of the lunatic right-wing fringe, most Israelis seem to have been of the opinion that Gaza wasn't worth the trouble of holding onto it, and are happy to have washed their hands of it. Netanyahu fiercely opposed it, and Likud split over the issue, but now that it's over I don't think anyone's going to convince the Israeli public to move the settlers back in.

10:50 / 07.01.06

More to the point, I can't see many people wanting to settle on land that some of your fellow countrymen have recently been forcibly been ejected from...

09:29 / 09.01.06

just to be paranoid, theres some argument about whether the treatment sharon was given after his stroke may have contributed to the worsening of his condition. i dont know enough about israeli politics to think about pointing fingers, but some kind of scary zionist meme could benefit from his removal, and the failure of kadima. on the other hand, this tragedy on the heels of his dramatic settler pullout could lead to some kind of martyrdom.

some good references here.

at least sharon was polite enough to go out with a bang, and not just deteriorate into figureheaddom like ronald reagan or pope jpii.

i hope he recovers enough to live out the remainder of his days in peace and quiet with his family.

16:41 / 26.01.06

Hamas just won the Palestian elections, by a landslide. The Bush admin. hasn't ruled out talks with Hamas, while Hamas says it wouldn't rule out talks with Israel, while simultaneously saying it will never recognize Israel's right to exist.

I thought this, from Yahoo news, was apropos:

>> "Hamas won," said Nobel Peace Prize winner Elie Wiesel. "Hamas is surely not a democratic movement. Its ideas are surely not humanistic ideas.

>> "What do we do now?" [Wiesel asked rhetorically]

16:51 / 26.01.06

Bush quote:
"The people are demanding honest government. The people want services. They want to be able to raise their children in an environment in which they can get a decent education and they can find health care."

The irony...is he talking about Hamas or his own administration?

Sharon most likely was not going to survive any other way then being put into a coma limbo that would allow all sorts of confusion. Is he alive or is he dead?...well both.

01:10 / 29.03.06

It looks like Kadima sort of succeeded...

At least in killing the Likud party, which if nothing else, is a nice step.

With 75% of the vote counted, Kadima has 28 seats, Labour 20, and Likud is down to 12.

07:15 / 29.03.06

I was watching the coverage late last night - the Kadima celebrations came across as quite subdued compared to the enormity of the realignment of Israeli politics the party's victory had caused... Then the camera switched over to Likud party headquarters and the place was deserted, everyone had gone home it seemed, there was a banner half torn down, and it just looked like the mess you get after a school prom.