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We need oil...

21:13 / 21.12.05

Just watching Newsnight's special on 'the end of the oil age'

All very interesting...

It got me thinking what people on Barbelith thought about the industrialized world's need for oil, the best ways to secure supplies in the face of an increasing competition from growing economies like China and any feasible plans for alternatives as the oil runs out...

14:20 / 22.12.05

I think we are likely to see more and more pressure for drilling rights within wilderness areas such as Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and Antarctica. Only yesterday were the Republicans narrowly defeated over a plan to allow drilling in Alaska to curtail reliance on Middle Eastern supplies and secure "national security". As stocks run low the argument for allowing such drilling will, for some, be even more clear cut.

Eventually I suppose, if alternative energy sources are not developed and we've finally destroyed what natural habitat we have left, those countries still producing their own oil will refuse to sell it in order to safeguard their own future reliance. Their could conceivably be (further) oil wars.

I find this a very sad situation indeed. We know the oil will run out so why can't develop the political will to research alternative sources of energy and save what natural areas of the planet we still have.

14:47 / 22.12.05

The interesting thing about ANWR is that it's largely an ideological fight. I've seen reports from a number of oil companies stating that they really aren't all that interested in drilling in ANWR, because the oil deposits are uneconomic at present. Of course, this can change with rising prices, but I think that the political fight over ANWR is really more symbolic.

Basically, the republican party believes that business should be unfettered by environmental regulation, and they want to push through drilling in ANWR to prove the point. They don't actually care whether it makes any sense to drill - it's about beating the environmentalists. They exhibit a vindictiveness that goes beyond a feeling that we genuinely need the oil, and willfully ignore any suggestion that conservation might be a more effective long-term strategy than drilling a few more holes that will be quickly pumped dry.

16:10 / 22.12.05

[slightly OT]

Is the stuff in ANWR related, geologically, to that tar sand I've been reading about up in Canada? Apparently, Canada's sitting on this huge supply of oil, it's just really dirty.

nyarlathotep's shoe horn

17:01 / 22.12.05

hey grant,

not all of Canada - the province of Alberta (second in from the Pacific Coast, just East of the Rockies and West of the rectangular province).

there are tar-sands full of, well, oil, and sand. The amount of energy needed to extract it is about break-even with what you get - not much point, really,

but, we're planning on building a Nucular (sic) reactor in the middle of it all.

Anyone feel visions of Hieronymus Bosch creeping into the peripheries of perception? Nice little HELL we've decided to construct.

The best way to deal with the end of oil is not to fight for the dwindling supplies, but to figure out what's to be done when the dust settles and we need something other.

reduce the fuel you use. Eat food grown as close to your home as possible - because if we're down to the end of oil, and setting priorities, my guess is that moving food into the city is probably the priority.

look around you. is there anything within your line of sight that hasn't, at some point, been on a truck?

how many of those things are essential?

how many of those things are made from petroleum products (think plastic)?

how many of these things are completely and utterly unnecessary?

what alternatives to the further spread of HELL?

-not jack

solid~liquid onwards

20:50 / 22.12.05

Fuck all you guys. I'll soon live in self sufficient ecohouse in the middle of nowhere. Sustainability of the individual is my answer to the end of the age of oil.

Get an off grid power supply (solar pannels, wind/water turbines etc).

Get energy efficient. passive solar heating, insulation, thermal mass.

Collect and filter your own water.

Process your own sewerage.

Have the capability to grow your own food.

You can have all the comforts of home with very little hassle if you set up the systems smartly. Once its all paid for you wont have any electric or gas bills. Also if you build it for cheap enough you can reduce your cost of living... too many benefits for my brain to cope with.

Its all here, now and viable. As long as theres no nuclear war, you should be ok.

Its that or rely on your Government to solve the problems.

21:51 / 22.12.05

It's not enough to merely be selfishly self-sufficient, because a) there isn't enough land/solar cells/etc to go around and b) if push really comes to shove, you'd better have a damn big arsenal and a strong stomach to defend yourself against the marauders.

People are going to have to work together to solve these problems for everyone, and that means government - those things we institute among ourselves to provide for the common good. Cities can be more energy-efficient than lots of dispersed self-sufficient homes when you're talking about millions of people.

Have you tried really living completely off the grid? It's tough. I try to provide for most of my own food by hunting and gardening, but staples like flour, salt, and milk (since I don't have space for a cow) must be bought, as must fresh vegetables when the garden's out of season. About the only veggies that can last for a long period of time are squash, and from experience, you get damned tired of squash. Greenhouses can extend the growing season, but these take up space and resources to construct.

Self-sufficiency is a nice little fantasy, but large-scale efficiency is the only way that we can provide for everyone.

08:47 / 23.12.05

Yes. Large-scale control, efficiency and conservation is the only valid solution. The oil is irreplaceable, and all partial alternatives involve much more infrastructure, are much more expensive and much less efficient. We must change very soon, we must all change and we must change structurally. The alternative is to blast ourselves back into the middle ages, but with more efficient tools and weapons. Isn't it? And we will too, I bet.

13:02 / 23.12.05

I think that science will invent some new kind of energy source. Or maybe discover it on Mars.

13:42 / 23.12.05

I think that's a myth an individual can cling to, Buk, but it's irrational to devise a survival strategy for our entire species contingent on a miracle.

13:43 / 23.12.05

Sorry, I should have said civilisation - not species. I hope.

14:39 / 23.12.05

That's what the Falklands War was about, was it not: securing for Britannia the option of oil and mineral rights at the bottom end of the world, when the North Sea's exhausted?

nyarlathotep's shoe horn

15:55 / 23.12.05

more energy is used in making solar panels than they will generate in their lifetime.

I've heard the "live off the land" solution often enough, which usually means running to the wilderness, setting up paradise, then inviting friends, having families...

this is how urbanification works - and the wilderness/green space dies with it...

Anyone for making cities viable? As of last year, more people live in urban settings than rural. Who's feeding who?

for alternatives, check this out:
www.zpenergy.com

how about we use more human energy and less mechanical energy. Say, use a rake instead of a leaf blower, for example.

public transit must replace cars in urbania.

-not jack

16:24 / 23.12.05

I was just reading about this South African guy who's basically designing kid's playgrounds as dynamos and pumps -- using merry-go-rounds to pump water and see-saws to generate electricity. Apparently, they work really well. Good use of ambient energy. He's setting them up in various places around sub-Saharan Africa.

So there's one effect shrinking oil supplies will have -- unlikely innovations from developing nations (they'll have a head start).

solid~liquid onwards

19:28 / 23.12.05

Mirror, dreaming of murder, quote "It's not enough to merely be selfishly self-sufficient, because a) there isn't enough land/solar cells/etc to go around and b) if push really comes to shove, you'd better have a damn big arsenal and a strong stomach to defend yourself against the marauders."

I stated in my opening sentance that i intend to be selfishly self suffiecient. Mabye there isnt enough land/ solar pannels to go around. Im not going for a universal solution to the worlds problems, just my own. By the way, if anyone works it out then please let me know. As for marauders... well i have to say the problem has been considered. As for the food thing, i dont intend to be fully self sufficient untill it becomes neccessary. If the crofters could do it in the highlands (some still do, i beleive) then im sure i could find ways of sustaining myself.

"Self-sufficiency is a nice little fantasy" It is, isnt it. And its my fantasy and will sooner rather than later be reality. As for the world, its probably fucked, i hope not, it just seems to be heading that way.

Valid points from not jack. ive already established that im a selfish fucker so, although i have some justifications they're not worth mentioning. Thanks for ZPenergy, i had a quick browse and there was some interesting stuff there, it been bookmarked for a my days off.

19:43 / 23.12.05

I don't think science cobbling together a workable non-oil energy source will be a miracle. I am coming from a position of scientific ignorance but I can't imagine a future in which that kind of advance isn't made.

I suppose that is like glibly predicting a cure for cancer though...

P. Horus Rhacoid

23:19 / 23.12.05

I don't think science cobbling together a workable non-oil energy source will be a miracle. I am coming from a position of scientific ignorance but I can't imagine a future in which that kind of advance isn't made.

Same here. Though I freak out about peak oil with some regularity, it strikes me that, as oil becomes scarcer and more expensive to extract, energy companies are going to be forced to develop alternate sources of energy simply because it will be the most economical option- or put another way, oil will cease to become profitable. On the other hand, pursuing alternatives doesn't mean effective alternatives will be found, so it's unfortunate more effort isn't being put into it now. Actually, thinking about it, it seems like it would make a good deal of economic sense for oil companies to start pursuing alternate power sources now, since it's blatantly obvious that cheap oil is on its way out. It seems smart to have a backup plan, both from a practical let's-not-destroy-society-as-we-know-it standpoint and from an economic one. Oil executives can't all be greedy, short-sighted bastards, can they? Can they?

BTW, Thomas Friedman has a column in the NYTimes today about the consequences to US foreign policy of oil staying at 60 bucks a barrel for the next three years- unfortunately I can't read it because it's under Times premium or whatever the pay-for service is called. Has anybody here read it?

P. Horus Rhacoid

23:30 / 23.12.05

[mild threadrot] Also, it appears sttab is well equipped to fight off marauders. [/mild threadrot]

12:32 / 24.12.05

The problem is that we wont get to the efficiency and all round utility of oil by cobbling things together. If we do it will be - as you suggest in your first post, Buk - a discovery.

The most efficient way to move energy around is as uranium, but fission's not a replacement for fossil fuels, especially not oil. Next comes oil, followed by natural gas - which is much more expensive to move and will be depleted very soon after the oil is. Next is electricity, which is very inefficient. Please bear in mind that the best known way to store electricity is to pump water to higher ground and later use it to generate new electricity. After these would come hydrogen gas, had we any.

Fusion isn't expected before 2050, which is far too late. In combination with a good storage and transportation form it might be all we really need. I'm no expert, but I imagine we can run a careful civilisation on it. There’s any amount of ambient energy we can learn to utilise, as grant says. With highly efficient conversion to a good storage and transportation form that can do the job too. A careful civilisation is probably possible, but it wont be like this one.

Cold fusion could potentially give us a great deal more, after a lot of cobbling, but that would certainly be a discovery. Major discoveries in physics and chemistry really are little miracles nowadays. We've already looked very closely at just about everything. It's not an accident that all the excitement is in relatively high-level fields like genetics.

Hydrogen could be great if we either had it or could produce it very easily - another discovery is needed here - and we could compress it to it's storage form (compress it to some 10,000PSI) efficiently. We haven't got it and we can't compress it efficiently.

A great energy source may still be awaiting discovery, but we oughtn't bet on it because we still have alternatives and the stakes are too high. Oil is needed for a great many purposes besides its use as an energy source, by the way.

P. Horus Rhacoid

15:24 / 24.12.05

That makes a lot of sense, elene. I'm off to freak out some more.

Also, isn't oil essentially the basis of the western economy? Shit.

nyarlathotep's shoe horn

16:07 / 24.12.05

"In G.O.D. we trust."

Guns
Oil
Drugs

the biggest use for petroleum products is in plastics - most plastics (as far as I've been able to surmise) are used by the automotive industry.

toner in photocopiers is a petroleum derivative.

hell, Cheez Whiz is a petroleum derivative.

I don't think it's just the oil industry that's all wrapped up cruel, greedy, short-sightedness.

ever notice how many people commute in a car by themselves? by my informal count, about 70% in this city. How deep is our denial about the end of this "lifestyle?"

the 50s are over.

-tenix

ps sttab, wrt "individual sustainability" - hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. good one.

solid~liquid onwards

20:55 / 24.12.05

ps sttab, wrt "individual sustainability" - hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. good one.

*sttab mutters darkly about how you'll all be shown*

My selfish insanity aside, has anyone heard about this. Also look at the "see also" section for more info

Remember reading a while back also that a fusion reactor had been built somewhere but it was a small scale experimental model that consumed more energy than it produced.