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Ariel Sharon no longer leader of the Likud Party

ONLY NICE THINGS

09:03 / 28.11.05

Like alas, I'm a bit surprised nobody has started a topic one this one., although perhaps those who are more clued up on Israeli politics find it unimpressive.

However - on November 24k, Ariel Sharon, having left the Likud party, announced that the name of his new party will be "Forward". It looks at present like it will adopt a lot of the Likud's centre-right ideology and policy but with a greater emphasis on a peace with the Palestinians. Led by Bibi Netanyahu, the Likud is being seen as the loser by many pundits, who predict that it will become a right-wing rump in the coming elections. However, even as Sharon deserts the party he helped to found, upheaval is also occurring in the opposition Labour party. Shimon Peres, octogenarian grandee, has been defeated in a leadership election and the party chairman is now Amir Peretz, who is either an oddity or an early sign of the coming wave of Israeli politics - of Moroccan rather than European origin, a trrade union leader and too young to have any sort of war record. He has set about reforming Labour, bringing in new blood and setting out his standards on the economy rather than the Palestinian question, although Labour will pretty much inevitably be likely to side with Sharon against the Likud in most cases.

So, quite a shake-up. Is this a shift with far-reaching implications for politics in Israel and for the Palestinians, or an opportunity for a protest vote which will create another unsatisfactory coalition? Can Forward be more than a one-election party, and will the Likud follow the predicted path to marginalisation?

15:34 / 28.11.05

I may be reading this wrong but....I fail to see it as particularly significant to the Palestinian question. That is, things will carry on along the unilaterally determined path in the much the same way as they have.

Assuming he is successful Sharon will, probably successful, play to the US audience and make a big show of the great sacrifices which, in effect, amount to a land and resource grab that leave the Palestinians with no prospect of a viable state. He will do this against the wishes of the hardliners (to great praise from abroad, no doubt) who think that even this is too much to give the Palestinians.

STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK

19:28 / 28.11.05

(I've been waiting for someone else to start a thread, to be honest- I found it quite hard to get my head round when I heard it on the news, and wasn't even sure how to go about phrasing the question.)

15:29 / 29.11.05

The one pundit-bite I heard was that this was all a complicated but final way for Sharon to shake off the extreme right-wing settlers for good.

I don't know enough about the system to evaluate that analysis.

17:34 / 29.11.05

It certainly moves Likud out of the central position it once held in the political mainstream, but with Israel's democracy set up the way it is even small parties can hold a massive influence depending on the make up of the coalition government and there hasn't been anything but coalition governments in Israel since the state was first established IIRC...

21:09 / 30.11.05

And now Peres has joined Sharon...

13:47 / 01.12.05

In the new party?

What has this done to Likud and Labour? Are they now marginalized center-left and center-right parties? (Marginalized center? What a country....)

ONLY NICE THINGS

13:59 / 01.12.05

Well, Likud and "Forward" both seem to be substantively centre-right, with a big difference on settlers' rights. Labour _was_ getting marginalised - it used to be the majority party for a long time but was failing in popularity. Peretz seems to be kickstarting it by moving to the left, in particular on social issues, while also trying to prove that he is not a Bolshevik - much hilarity was recently caused when, having spoken at length in an interview about how he became a capitalist in his youth (paper round or some such), he then recommended the Motorcycle Diaries as a great film. As such, a centrist party like Forward could appeal to old Labour (and they don't get much older than Shimon Peres) and non-settler Likud alike.