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Natural Disasters

 
 
grant
15:56 / 10.10.05
So, we're up for a record number of hurricanes in the Atlantic this year. New Orleans is devastated, and the rest of the Gulf Coast isn't much better off. The remains of Vince are making the Iberian peninsula rather wet.

Mudslides in the wake of Hurricane Stan are swallowing Guatemalan villages whole. They say the devastation there is worse than Hurricane Mitch.

The earthquake this weekend in Pakistan has claimed as many as 30,000 lives.

They're evacuating New Hampshire now, after five feet of water poured into towns in the center of the state. It's part of a weather system that has flooded states all along the East Coast, from North Carolina past New Jersey into New England.

All this pales in comparison to the Banda Aceh tsunami at the beginning of the year.

Some historians are fond of pointing out how disasters like these have an affect on the fates of empires and governments -- New China, for example, came about in part because of earthquakes after Mao's death. The public (or at least some elements of the public) can't help but feel these things are linked. It's more than just "bad thing happened, God must hate the King!" -- some analysts say the first George Bush got defeated so soundly because his response to Hurricane Andrew was deemed inadequate.

Economically, too, in the short term, markets show a definite response to individual catastrophes.

Some folks are making sound suggestions for public responses to these disasters.

But I'm not expecting small policy changes and adaptations to be the only wide-scale response to what's been going on globally this year. I'm not sure what shape it'll take, but it seems like things in a whole lot of places are going to change.

I don't really know how, though. Got any guesses?

New global warming programs? Rise in fundamentalist states? Asian (and American) coups d'etat?
 
 
nyarlathotep's shoe horn
18:29 / 10.10.05
personally,

I'm hoping to see a shift from the militarised response to a humanitarian one, in terms of City's disaster preparedness.

We need fewer police and military (particularly in Canada, I mean, who are we kidding?), and could stand loads more volunteers and professionals trained in emergency first aid, building structural assessments, and a system that could be easy enough to follow post-disaster.

There seems to be talk about it, however, until we see more groups like the urban search and rescue team

Hopefully, we'll choose this option, other than shooting disaster survivors.

ta
tenix
 
 
quixote
02:36 / 13.10.05
After the Katrina disaster, I read on a blog somewhere (here, perhaps?) that we don't really have natural disasters anymore, because human ability to foresee and prevent their worst effects is now so great. When those effects are NOT prevented, it's more human stupidity than natural disaster, which only makes it even more painful.

Examples of human contributing factors:

New Orleans: poor wetlands environmental policies, inadequate levees.

Indian Ocean Tsunami: no seismic early warning system despite obvious need for one.

Bam (Iran) and Kashmir earthquakes: tens of thousands dead due to home construction methods. Simple reinforcement of construction with canes (bamboo, Arundo, Phragmites, whatever is available), allows collapse of the structures to be reduced, and much less lethal. (See Quake-proof adobe construction in Peru.) No information programs on building techniques ever instituted.

Stan & Mitch, Central American landslides, Haitian mudslides and flooding: deforestation.

desertification of the Sahel: . . . .

Anyway, you get the idea.

As for what the reaction will be, history suggests it won't be good. People procrastinate on all the "effort" and "expense" of real solutions. We've gone through that stage already. Then when the real problems and expenses hit, the usual solution is to try to rip off someone else. (The US has started on that one in Iraq.) Before you know it, flood, fire, famine, and war are galloping all over the planet.

The only hope, perhaps, is if the US gets its nose well bloodied in Iraq, maybe people generally will think a bit before trying the bully route. And then, MAYBE, they'll say, "Hey, don't look now, but I think there's a real solution just *staring* at us."

We have to hope.
 
  
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