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How Will The World End?

 
 
Loomis
10:05 / 14.04.05
This article in today's Grauniad lists a few speculations on the major disasters that may happen in the next 70 years and rates their likelihood and the estimated impact they would have.

What do you think of these, and do you have any more to add?
 
 
Katherine
17:54 / 14.04.05
Ah, so it's more the end of life as we know on this planet?
 
 
Katherine
18:00 / 14.04.05
To be honest as a species we have done very well to have survived this long. The fact we occasionally work together as worked to our avantage, yet some we get to a large poplulation we start to develop differences which rip that avantage up leading to terrorism.

We face dangers all the time and to a point we overcome them and ignore them. Supervolcanos could cause major problems but then are we going to move people out of the area? (I'm thinking of the one that's in America here) No we're not. I can't think why other than in most people's minds it's a problem of the 'hollywood film' not real life.
 
 
alejandrodelloco
20:56 / 14.04.05
Chances of a major terrorist attack in the next 70 years: Very high

Danger score: 2


*cough*


Didn't mention peak oil either, which is likely to kill of large segments of people from war/hunger/etc.
 
 
Seth
00:09 / 15.04.05
Glad there's not much chance of use being swallowed by our own pet black hole.

I'll sleep well tonight.
 
 
Tom Coates
10:49 / 15.04.05
I was confused by the terrorist attack stuff as well - it seemed to me to be a bit of a meta-problem. I mean for every development in every area that could be abused, the existence of the same sized network of terrorists and activists becomes more worrying, because with anthrax or sarin or something, it increasingly only takes one person (or a small group) to do something really dramatic. It's pretty much possible to get a corporation to synthesize smallpox DNA already - what happens when this technology is abstracted out into universities, or when the technology to do it gets half-inched off the back of a lorry?
 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
14:05 / 15.04.05
"You, are becoming Gods. There's a new master of creation, and it's you! You've unravelled DNA and at the same time you're cultivating bacteria strong enough to kill every living thing. D'you think you are ready for that much power? You lot? Cheeky bastards. You're running around science like kids with guns, creating a new world, while the one you've got is stinking. Go on, hands up, hands up anyone who thinks you've got it right. Yeh, there's always one. I can see you. If you want the position of god then take the responsibility"

Thta's how it's going to end, some clumsy ejit and a tube of superanthrax...
 
 
distractile
16:36 / 15.04.05
Someone said (just after September 11, I think) that the damage that could be wrought by a dozen determined individuals was a good alternative measure of technological progress.

Technology may put more destructive power into the hands of smaller numbers of people, but it also puts more preventative and detection tools into the hands of the greater number who are guarding against such destruction. The question then becomes: where are there asymmetries between destructive potential and prevention or containment capabilities? I'd guess that these are fewer and smaller than we are commonly led to believe, and that they will become more so as awareness and preparedness grows.

(Incidentally, that isn't meant to come across as an apology for technologically-enabled authoritarianism - I think there's a messy but real distinction between behavioural controls and countermeasures).

As for the rest of the list, the only one that really worries me is the viral pandemic - it's the only one that's both potentially catastrophic and reasonably likely to happen before anyone can do anything about it. And why is Moravec's tired old "robot children" guff supposed to be worrying? It's not like he's talking about Skynet, or something.
 
 
Jack Denfeld
14:01 / 19.04.05
Oh wow. This was how the humans were going to die and be replaced by Mutants in Grant's X-Men run, isn't it?

2: Telomere erosion

Reinhard Stindl, a medical doctor at the University of Vienna, says every species contains an "evolutionary clock", ticking through the generations and counting down towards an inevitable extinction date:

"On the end of every animal's chromosomes are protective caps called telomeres. Without them our chromosomes would become unstable. Each time a cell divides it never quite copies its telomere completely and throughout our lifetime the telomeres become shorter and shorter as the cells multiply. Eventually, when they become critically short, we start to see age-related diseases, such as cancer, Alzheimer's, heart attacks and strokes.

"However, it is not just through our lifetime that telomeres get shorter. My theory is that there is a tiny loss of telomere length from one generation to the next, mirroring the process of ageing in individuals. Over thousands of generations the telomere gets eroded down to its critical level. Once at the critical level we would expect to see outbreaks of age-related diseases occurring earlier in life and finally a population crash. Telomere erosion could explain the disappearance of a seemingly successful species, such as Neanderthal man, with no need for external factors such as climate change."

Chances of a human population crash due to telomere erosion during the next 70 years: Low

Danger score: 8
 
 
jeed
14:48 / 19.04.05
Interesting theory, I've just read the paper though, looks like toss, and you can cut it ribbons with little effort.

Worth a read though, PM me for a pdf copy.
 
 
Morpheus
02:43 / 26.04.05
Has anyone been paying attention to the really fucked up Hurricanes in the Atlantic. When the CO2 rolls up on the thermohaline ocean ciculation and then causes the Jet stream that basically heats all of Europe to stop in it's tracks...what little gadget is going to stop the ocean of ice that is going to cover your ass. Get your wind breakers you poor bastards. If you want to see wahat it kind of might look like.Blow You Away
 
 
Ganesh
18:30 / 26.04.05
Or rent The Day After Tomorrow.
 
 
alejandrodelloco
00:17 / 27.04.05
FWOOOOSH!
 
 
nyarlathotep's shoe horn
16:43 / 08.05.05
I'm putting my money (heh) on the reversal of the earth's polarity...

just because it sounds cool.

=)
pablo
 
  
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