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Lord Goldsmith's Legal Advice - Let's Not Get Excited Here

 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
08:36 / 25.03.05
So yet again there are clamourings for Lord Goldsmith's advice on the legality of going to War in Iraq to be made public, and still the Government are refusing. I'm doing all I can not to think 'conspiracy!', that the Government are holding off on publishing it because tying up news cycles with this is a lot better than news cycles full of the latest insane Tory scheme to fuck the entire country up or how New Labour are doing this right now. The Government's reasons for not doing so are also bullshit, they aren't supposed to release intelligence material into the public domain either but they did so because it suited their purpose in trying to get the country onside for war.

But we already know that Goldsmith changed his views on legality based on a personal assurance from Blair that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, we know from the former British ambassador to Washington that Blair and Bush agreed long before the dodgy dossier and 'all that' to invade Iraq, we know that Neocons helped Goldsmith come to his decision that the war was legal. We also know from the Hutton and Butler reports that the intelligence services were 'encouraged' by Tony Blair's office, specifically Jonathan Powell and Alistair Campbell, to take their poor evidence and make it useful by taking out the equivocation.

So is there any point in publishing Goldsmith's legal opinion? By focusing on that, as the Independent do on their front page, it seems to me that we're falling into the Government's trap. After all, Goldsmith's document isn't going to say "In my opinion going to war is both a bad idea and legally speaking a terrorist act with no legal backing" is it? The findings of the Hutton Inquiry were so mad, but the discussion became 'the BBC are evil? Discuss' despite the fact that the evidence given showed that Downing Street manipulated things to suit themselves. If Goldsmiths' views are published and there is no smoking gun, doesn't that risk setting back the anti-war cause again and letting Blair get away with it all, AGAIN?
 
 
Joetheneophyte
06:53 / 26.03.05
Blair is a lying, corrupt bastard. I still believe whatever happens at this election, he will step down with a 'health scare' and do a Maggie and John Major and tour the US making oodles of money as the sycophantic US business leaders clap this 'friend of America'

Worse he will probably get business appointments to various boards and receive payments for doing basically fuck all.

Goldsmith was seemingly corrupt or at least 'got to'. I agree and hadn't thought that maybe we are falling into a trap and concentrating on the wrong point with this whole debacle. BUt what are we to do? Howard, the only other likely alternative to Blair was alos pro-war and it seems highly likely that even if he had been in power at the time of the war.....he would have resorted to similar lies and 'evidence' to justify and convince the UK public

I watched Howard on The Wright Stuff last week whilst I was on holiday. What a creepy bastard. Permanent fixed grin and well rehearsed answers. His mask only slipped at one point when he was asked about Iraq
 
 
Joetheneophyte
06:58 / 26.03.05
sorry, knocked the enter button before I had finished

to continue......

Howard was all for the war but was getting digs into Tony Blair because of the very issue of intelligence

Howard continued that he was still supportive of the war as Saddam was in breach of UN security edicts etc

Matthew Wright said 'and so is Israel'

Howards' face was a picture. He lost his composure and you could see the hatred in his eyes as he gave Wright a withering stare and he looked genuinely lost for words.

So all in all, like the US with their ridiculous two party system, we in the UK are similarly fugged as the only two options (likely to win) in the UK election are Tony I have already lied but my domestic policy has been alright Blair

or Michael I think Blair made a mistake but I'd have gone to war anyway Howard

not much of a choice

Blair will probably still just get my vote as the thought of Howard getting in is too much for me to bear. Much as I hate Blair and his corrupt and lying circle...I trust Howard and Oliver Letwin even less
 
 
Joetheneophyte
07:05 / 26.03.05
Oh sorry, missed a bit again....anyway, whilst I agree that publishing the document is probably superfluous at best....it should be done as it will at least make these lying bastards more careful in future. If they know that their every word will be scrutinised, we are making their job of lying just that little bit harder. Politicians hate being asked to make a definitive statement and prefer to use vagueries. By insisting that their memoirs and correspondence be published, we can at least ensure that any questions can be addressed regardiing the semantics of what they have written

So much as I believe in this case it will achieve little, Goldsmiths report should be published to set a precedent that these liars (of whatever political persuasion and persoanlly I think they all pretty much dance to the same drum anyway) know we are watching them
 
 
Grendel's Mother
01:09 / 28.03.05
Speaking from the west side of the Atlantic, I'd also like to see the text published in full. The U.S. press has been so incredibly cowed by the Bush administration that the only chance of reinvigorating its investigation of how the U.S. government sexed up its intelligence is if Blair were to get nailed.
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
16:15 / 28.03.05
If Goldsmiths' views are published and there is no smoking gun, doesn't that risk setting back the anti-war cause again and letting Blair get away with it all, AGAIN?

Yes, and I totally get this, but on the other hand, we have a government that's pushing this country in a very dangerous direction, even aside from foreign policy. At this point, WHETHER OR NOT the outcome of publishing would be good for "our" cause, to let them get away with any instance of unaccountability is just hastening our slide down that slope. And it's not just a matter of getting rid of the fuckers- once we lose the things they're trying to take away (habeas corpus, and all the rest of 'em) they're not coming back. We can't afford to let these things go,, at least not without a fight.
And, of course, as regards publishing, "if you've nothing to hide, you've nothing to fear", eh?
 
 
Baz Auckland
02:49 / 24.04.05
...and it's leaked!

The 13 pages of legal advice that Goldsmith drew up on 7 March, according to a report in today's Mail on Sunday, warned that Blair could be in breach of international law for six reasons ranging from the lack of a second United Nations resolution to UN inspector Hans Blix's continuing search for weapons.

Ten days later, he apparently changed his mind, delivering a summary to Blair declaring the war was legal - the cue for the invasion.

The timing of the leak - just 11 days before polling day, with both the Liberal Democrats and the Tories planning to highlight Iraq over the next few days - is bound to trigger a major Whitehall mole hunt
 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
07:57 / 26.04.05
But again, let's not get excited. We don't know, although we can suspect, what with what the Americans have said, as to why Goldsmith changed from thinking the war was illegal to thinking it was okay. Short of Tony Blair breaking down on Question Time this week and admitting that they all told Goldsmith to go away and not come back until he's written that it's okay to invade Iraq, the fact we now know exactly what Goldsmith wrote doesn't really go anywhere.

We know the Secret Services were told to find proof where none existed that Saddam Hussein was a threat to the world, we know that between the JIC and the spin doctors of number 10 this was rewritten to remove all the annoying bits about there not actually being proof, we know that Alistair Campbell started a fight with the BBC to try and distract the media from the rapid unravelling of the BBC's case. This is why whenever Blair is asked about whether he lied to the Parliament the question he answers instead is 'do you think it was wrong to get rid of Saddam Hussein'. Even the news of another Labour defection doesn't alter the fact that Blair is in a position to get away with lying to the British people and causing the deaths of thousands.
 
 
Ganesh
10:31 / 26.04.05
Goldsmith's leaked 'first draft' may not go anywhere, but the sense of Blair as someone for whom the truth means little spreads. Interviewers are actually coupling up instances of his dissembling: it's currently a common tactic to press Labour spokesmen on Blair's lying with regard to Goldsmith's "unequivocal" report, the David Kelly disclosures and his false claim that he's completely ignorant of numbers of asylum-seekers - in the same interview. If nothing else, this reinforces the widespread impression of Blair as someone who lies freely, routinely and shamelessly. At some point, that's got to do him some damage.
 
 
sleazenation
17:09 / 27.04.05
Form the channel 4 news website.

Extract from Lord Goldsmith's summary

A copy of the summary is below:

"26. To sum up, the language of resolution 1441 leaves the position unclear and the statements made on adoption of the resolution suggest that there were differences of view within the Council as to the legal effect of the resolution. Arguments can be made on both sides. A key question is whether there is in truth a need for an assessment of whether Iraq's conduct constitutes a failure to take the final opportunity or has constituted a failure fully to cooperate within the meaning of OP4 such that the basis of the cease-fire is destroyed. If an assessment is needed of that situation, it would be for the Council to make it. A narrow textual reading of the resolution suggests that sort of assessment is not needed, because the Council has predetermined the issue. Public statements, on the other hand, say otherwise.

27. In these circumstances, I remain of the opinion that the safest legal course would be to secure the adoption of a further resolution to authorise the use of force. [...] The key point is that it should establish that the Council has concluded that Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity offered by resolution 1441, as in the draft which has already been tabled.

28. Nevertheless, having regard to the information on the negotiating history which I have been given and to the arguments of the US Administration which I heard in Washington, I accept that a reasonable case can be made that resolution 1441 is capable in principle of reviving the authorisation in 678 without a further resolution.

29. However, the argument that resolution 1441 alone has revived the authorisation to use force in resolution 678 will only be sustainable if there are strong factual grounds for concluding that Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity. In other words, we would need to be able to demonstrate hard evidence of non-compliance and non-cooperation. Given the structure of the resolution as a whole, the views of UNMOVIC and the IAEA will be highly significant in this respect. In the light of the latest reporting by UNMOVIC, you will need to consider very carefully whether the evidence of non-cooperation and non- compliance by Iraq is sufficiently compelling to justify the conclusion that Iraq has failed to take its final opportunity.

30. In reaching my conclusion, I have taken account of the fact that on a number of previous occasions, including in relation to Operation Desert Fox in December 1998 and Kosovo in 1999, UK forces have participated in military action on the basis of advice from my predecessors that the legality of the action under international law was no more than reasonably arguable. But a "reasonable case" does not mean that if the matter ever came before a court I would be confident that the court would agree with the view. I judge that, having regard to the arguments on both sides, and considering the resolution as a whole in the light of the statements made on adoption and subsequently, a court might well conclude that OPs 4 and 12 do requ1re a further Council decision in order to revive the authorisation in resolution 678. But equally I consider that the counter view can be reasonably maintained. However, it must be recognised that on previous occasions when military action was taken on the basis of a reasonably arguable case, the degree of public and Parliamentary scrutiny of the legal issue was nothing as great as it is today.
 
 
Bed Head
10:27 / 28.04.05
So, I guess everybody else is following the news today, then? Was Blair’s press conference on telly? Did anyone see it?

The line he’s taking ("I took the TOUGH decision to go to war. Me. I did it. Because I'm TOUGH. Live with it.") seems kinda ludicrous and unrelated to the actual complaint that this Goldsmith thing has boiled down to (that he prevented the cabinet/the commons from knowing things that might have affected their willingness to allow him to start a war. What with him *only* being a Prime Minister, and all). He's on QT tonight, right? Can he be skewered on this?

And I’m wondering how much my feelings about this stuff finally making headlines have been tempered by Labour’s insistence that there’s a VERY REAL THREAT of a Tory government next week. Have scares been sufficiently mongered among labour supporters, and is that going to be enough to allow him to get away with this?
 
 
Bed Head
10:32 / 28.04.05
Oops, sorry to Sleazenation. I was re-reading this thread at the same time as you were starting another one.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
11:32 / 28.04.05
The funny thing about Blair and tough decisions is that he doesn't seem entirely to understand what the term means. Decisions aren't tough simply because they present two options which are hard to decide between. They are tough because a decision either way will have significant consequnces. In this case, the decision to go to war was a very tough one, but so was his decision not to share vital information with parliament, which actually made the decision to go to war. It was tough in part because if it was revealed he would look dirty. He doesn't seem to get the second part of this...

My ideal credible result from this election, I think, would be an incumbent Labour party realising that it has to get rid of Blair, who has become an absolute liability.
 
 
Scrambled Password Bogus Email
12:56 / 28.04.05
Amen.
 
 
Bed Head
14:03 / 28.04.05
Well, yeah, agreed. But what of the scaremongering strategy they've employed throughout the campaign, could this just add to it? Will the very high-profile trouble he's now in over this legal advice be turned around, and work to deliver him another huge victory from Labour voters who have been scared with the idea of Howard? Only, at the mo, I think I’m even more terrified of a third labour landslide than I am of the piss-weak tory government that isn’t going to happen anyway.

The ideal result would be an incumbent Labour party with a *greatly* reduced majority. Party opinion should prevail over an individual nutter in number 10; that's one thing the parliamentary system is designed to do, surely. To keep nutters in check. Without the landslide, he couldn't have started that war. Or have ignored one huge parliamentary rebellion after another, or even have dared to provoke such opposition from his own party.

And doesn't the size of the majority directly affect how long he stays, too? As I understand it, despite being bloody unpopular within the parliamentary labour party, he still *can’t* really be unseated because it’s the plp that takes that vote. The numbers that mean he can force through tuition fees or ‘anti-terror’ legislation or launch a war in the teeth of ginormous rebellions, also make him pretty much immune to any attempt to replace him. Hence Brown’s anger: absolutely no pressure he can bring to bear, deal or not. However, a normal-sized majority, and Blair’s gotta make sure he stays half-way in tune with the party. A teensy majority and he's already unpopular enough to be *very* vulnerable. I’m sure he’s very aware of this stuff, and he’ll walk as soon as he’s at all at risk of being pushed.


...sorry. Am I raving? I'm kinda angry at the choices I've got to make on election day. Fucking Tony fucking wanker Blair.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
14:19 / 28.04.05
Well, bear in mind how hard he has had to work to get things through even with a huge majority... he's had to make political decisions on e.g. the war which seem to involve a belief that, if the PLP had had access to all the facts, he would have lost the vote.

But yeah, which is why I think in seats where the Tories can't win and the LibDems can, a vote for the LibDems is a good idea.
 
 
Bed Head
14:48 / 28.04.05
Aiee. On that, I think I really need to post to the ‘what’s your choice?’ thread, unburden myself, because I’m having serious difficulties with this whole thing. With apologies for any threadrot.

On the Goldsmith thing, it’ll be fascinating to see how Blair chooses to frame it on Question Time tonight, now he's had a chance to think about it, and if anyone else manages to successfully disrupt his version of reality. I mean, in a way that sticks. Here’s hoping Charles Kennedy read your post, haus.
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
16:54 / 28.04.05
The hugeness of Mr Tony's mandate (that wasn't supposed to sound quite so rude) has, imho, has been at the root of most of my problems with New Labour (the "New" being at the root of others). That, combined with The War Against Terror (and no, I'm not about to get all Jim Keith on yo' collective asses- I'm not suggesting that TWAT, or indeed 11/9 was something Mr Tony welcomed) has led to all manner of abuses, from the attempt to remove habeas corpus to the war.

And, I know he's got very little choice other that to use this argument, but does it make anyone else sick to hear Mr T banging on about how the war is only a minor issue, and people should think about their pensions etc? Of course, pensions and the like ARE important, but to me at the moment it smacks of appealing to people's basest self-interest- you know, Christ knows how many people are dead- people you're not even answerable to- and you're telling me that's all okay because you'll look after ME? That kind of leaves a nasty taste in my mouth, I have to say.
 
  
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