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'Bring the Troops Home' - Is that really the best idea right now?

 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
07:14 / 16.03.05
I'll be going to the demo on Saturday but I'll admit that I do so with more unease than when I went to the demos before we went in to blow more crap out of the country a few years back.

'Troops out' follows on quite logically from 'lets not send troops in in the first place', but they've been there for several years now, killing Iraqis, blowing their homes up, torturing them for kicks. At the moment recruitment into the nation's police force and army are low, not helped by the US accidentally shooting them, and while terrorists weren't in Saddam's Iraq they appear to be there now, so take out the admittedly hated Allied troops and don't we have a country ready for the religious extremists like those in Iran to take over, or worse still, the Taliban?
 
 
sleazenation
08:43 / 16.03.05
Or more likely an ungovernable state engaged in a bloody civil war.

Iraq needs an effective independent police force. It also needs its own effective military. At the moment it has neither and the only game in town for training a Police force is the coalition.
 
 
Punji Steak
10:59 / 16.03.05
Or possibly a multinational arab force with a UN mandate could provide the stability and training required perhaps? But then the US wouldn't control the oil would it? Many people are using the argument that without the coalition's presence the country would be a breeding ground for unbridled Islamic extremism but that is happening right now, the principle catalyst being the presence of the US led coalition.
 
 
sleazenation
12:38 / 16.03.05
Many people are using the argument that without the coalition's presence the country would be a breeding ground for unbridled Islamic extremism but that is happening right now, the principle catalyst being the presence of the US led coalition.

It isn't so much that Iraq after an immediate US led pull-out would be a breeding ground for 'islamic terrorists' as much that it would be a blood bath as everyone and his dog with an AK would be attempting to sieze power - the Kurds would be claiming independence, and that there would be no authority to assert the rule of law or prevent terrorists using the country as a base. (not that the coalition has succeeded in preventing the insugency so far...)

I am unconvinced that there is either the resources, ability, or the political will to make a UN backed pan-arab peacekeeping force a viable reality - not to mention the fact that such a force would estrange Iraq's sizable non-arab population....
 
 
grant
14:24 / 16.03.05
Stated another way, I bet the Syrians would love a pan-Arab peacekeeping force. As long as all the pan-Arabs were Syrian.
 
 
Punji Steak
14:37 / 16.03.05
I take your point, but to a certain extent that is speculation, however well founded. What isn't speculation is the fact that the occupation, illegal under UN law remember, is stoking the flames of Islamic extremism in the region and worldwide.

So, what chance is there of civil war in Iraq should the coalition leave?

Well, the Sunni minority almost completely rejected participation in the recent elections so it is likely they see their future elsewhere. They have also shown willingness to use violence against the occupation and, more pertinently, violence against Shia targets such as mosques. However, this possible attempt by some to ignite civil war in the country has met with little success so far, despite the Sunni insurgents seeming ability to operate at will despite being targeted by US/Iraqi forces. At the moment it appears there is little mainstream public will to tip the country into civil war.

Most of the violence in Iraq at the moment is directed, not at Shia mosques etc, but at coalition forces, western business interests and any groups seen as collaborating with the occupation. Even the violence against Shia targets could be seen as an example of this, as the Shias participated to a far greater extent than the Sunnis in the coalition run election. Most of the violence in the country is therefore primarily a response to the occupation rather than an attempt to start civil war. Obviously if the coalition leaves behind a regime perceived as a western puppet then violence will continue but would it be full scale civil war?

This is somewhat dependent on whether there is a regional force able to fulfil the same responsibility (as the coalition) in maintaining law and training Iraqi forces/police. They would probably be able to do little in the event full scale civil war broke out, but I don’t think they’d have to. I think the removal of the occupation forces and the stabilising effect of an Arab force would be enough.
 
 
Punji Steak
14:57 / 16.03.05
Sorry, by using the term Arab I was being lazy, I should have stuck with regional.*

I don't think the idea of a 'regional' peace keeping force is that far fetched. Similar operations have taken place in Africa with varying degrees of success, sufficient enough I suggest to prove that there can be the resources and will for such a task.

*(Except that would have to exclude the Israelis of course, and anyone else in the region who supported the initial invasion. Like Turkey, or Oman or the UAE. Or anyone on the axis of evil like Iran... oh fuck it, how about a Polynesian peace keeping force?)
 
 
sleazenation
23:57 / 16.03.05
Oh where to begin?

So, what chance is there of civil war in Iraq should the coalition leave

At best I'd say 80% chance of civil war if the coalition leaves now, but i'd guess that its probably somewhere closer to the high 90s

Iraqi MPs still in deadlock over a month after the election. There is no elected government in Iraq yet because none of the elected parties can agree with each other on the basics. The only thing that is keeping these political parties playing 'nice' at the moment is the continuing presence of the coalition forces. Without the coalition, I can well see 'negotiations' being carried out at the barrel of several thousand guns.

Remember these are just negotiations between the largest part and the opposition parties to see who will form the next government... From the BBC article...

The main sticking points are over the fate of Kurdish fighters and the northern city of Kirkuk.

The argument is essentially about who controls the oil revenues in the Kurdish-dominated city.


The Kurds want their independence and part of that is the oil revenue from the North of the country. As I said before, they currently benefit from playing nice, and negotiating through mainly political means like the coalition forces want them to. Without the coalition forces in Iraq, there is less of a reason for the Kurds to play nice... this is leaving aside the Sunni elements that may well continue an insurgency against the Shia over religious diferences once the coalition leave...

And of course even if coalition forces leave (unlikely in and of itself now that the US has built some perminent military bases in the country), there will still be US based companies and 'civillian contractors' (a term that includes everything from electricians to soldiers of fortune) in the area that will still be a target for ongoing Anti coalition feeling... And without the Great Satan to attack, rival factions come up as the next bigest danger and consequently the next problem for the insurgence to deal with....

As you say, the notion of a regional peacekeeping force is a bit of a non-starter since everyone has a massive vested interest to fight for. I mean, dude - Iraq cannot get its neighbours to secure and police its borders. How the fuck is the country going to count on those self same neighbours to provide an effective regional peacekeeping force?

As a final aside, I'd express my skepticism that the African Union Forces are actually doing any good in Darfur, but that is probably a bit off topic...
 
 
Jake, Colossus of Clout
18:37 / 17.03.05
When you say "we" should stay and tidy up the mess, you mean officers and enlisted men and women in the armed forces, not "we." None of the people who started this war have put themselves or their loved ones in the line of fire. It's unfair to the the people who are in danger for their lives on a daily basis to ask them to stick around and clean up a mess that is solely the fault of the Bush administration.

"...they've been there for several years now, killing Iraqis, blowing their homes up, torturing them for kicks."

Yes, because EVERY PERSON in the military does that, and "for kicks," no less. You don't think those things were orders from way up the chain of command (like perhaps Donald Rumsfeld's desk?)? Do you subscribe to the Bush administration's party line that "a few bad apples" were responsible for the Abu Ghraib tortures? Because all soldiers are bloodthirsty fucking lunatics. Right.
 
 
sleazenation
20:53 / 17.03.05
Jake -
I’m not sure what precisely you are getting at here.

Are you attempting to claim that the men and women of the coalition are not culpable for their actions in Iraq because the political decision to put them in their country was a political one taken by politicians who aren’t going to see combat themselves? Or are you claiming that the coalition forces that toppled Saddam’s regime and destroyed much of Iraq’s infrastructure have no responsibility to help reconstruct and reconstitute the country? Or that ordinary and part-time soldiers have been forced to serve longer, more dangerous tours of duty than they had been told they would face when they signed up?
 
 
Jake, Colossus of Clout
02:17 / 18.03.05
Culpable for what actions, specifically? War criminals are culpable for their actions, but soldiers acting within the parameters of the Geneva Convention are hardly responsible for the mess their superiors made using those soldiers as tools.

I don't see that there's any individual responsibility for soldiers to stick around and try to repair the infrastructure of Iraq when the vast majority of Iraqis want them out posthaste, anyway. And it's just a fact that soldiers are being forced to serve longer and more dangerous tours than they signed up for.

Also, I was specifically replying to this statement : "...they've been there for several years now, killing Iraqis, blowing their homes up, torturing them for kicks," and if that doesn't sound like a gross generalization to you, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.
 
 
sleazenation
09:49 / 18.03.05
Firstly, I’m not sure I buy your distinction between soldiers who violate the Geneva Convention being responsible for their actions, (seemingly letting their the rest of the chain of command off the hook) and those that don’t not being responsible for the actions (those actions seemingly being the responsibility of politicians higher-up in the chain of command). Surely both situations require the actions of the men on the ground and those men carry some level of responsibility for what they do.

When you say you don’t see that there's any individual responsibility for soldiers to stick around and try to repair the infrastructure of Iraq when the vast majority of Iraqis want them out posthaste, do you accept that collectively the coalition forces have both a moral and practical imperative to repair what it destroyed?
(Practical because an immediate pull out would result in an ungovernable country that would be ripe as a base for terrorists and moral because it was the coalition forces that made Iraq ungovernable).

Also, I was specifically replying to this statement : "...they've been there for several years now, killing Iraqis, blowing their homes up, torturing them for kicks,"

I’m not necessarily attempting to defend that statement, but I would say that while the first three parts in that quote could easily be justified the last runs the risk of hyperbole, something that is not helpful to this discussion.
 
 
Spaniel
10:23 / 18.03.05
Jake, I empathise with you re demonising soldiers, but...

see that there's any individual responsibility for soldiers to stick around and try to repair the infrastructure of Iraq when the vast majority of Iraqis want them out posthaste

But people don't always want what's best for them - and in this case it seems pretty clear that US withdrawal would cause more problems than it would solve.
This is the crux of the matter as far as I'm concerned. When we weigh the injustice of keeping US soldiers in the country post the resolution of the war* against what would happen were they to leave, well, I can't imagine how anyone could think US withdrawal would be morally acceptable.
Sure it may be unfair, an injustice even, to force US soldiers to stick around, but is it more unfair than letting a country descend into civil war, become a breeding ground for terrorists, not to mention the problems for stability in the region and the potential global economic impact?


*A debatable concept in itself
 
 
Jake, Colossus of Clout
15:46 / 18.03.05
Well, I'll admit that I may be bit biased on this issue because I was a soldier in the US Army during the run-up to the Iraq war (Something you may find interesting- to those in the service, there was no doubt that the US was going to invade Iraq. We saw it as a definite as early as late 2001, when the White House was saying there was no interest in Saddam). I saw no justification for the war, except as a scheme for the Bush administration to make a profit, and rather than go fight for Bush, I deserted my post, faced my punishment and I'm now a civilian, and happy as fuck, I might add. I think everyone in the service should do what I did- It's my opinion that the military should stand up for itself when the uses it's being put to are deeply unjust, but that's a topic for another thread. However, I know a lot of people over in Iraq right now, and many of them agree that the war is bullshit, but they may need the money and benefits the Army offers, or they may feel a loyalty to the service that supercedes the asshole commander-in-chief. They may just be good people who believe the shit that comes out of that man's mouth. The military is very, very good at indoctrination. I haven't been in for quite a while, but sometimes my Army brainwashing will come out when I have too much to drink. These people know what they're doing. And yes, there is your garden-variety sociopath who actually wants to kill people, but those guys are rarer than you may think.

My point is that most of the guys and girls over in Iraq don't want to be there, and more than you may think actually want to do all they can for the Iraqis. HOWEVER. The general populace of Iraq doesn't want the soldiers on their land. I'm not in the least convinced that things are better there now than they would be if we pulled our soldiers out. there might be a civil war, yes, but there's a guerilla war right now. The only thing that's keeping the Sunnis and Shiites from killing each other is the fact that they hate Americans more than each other. And I find that totally understandable, considering we bombed the shit out of them, but I don't think they'll hate each other any less the longer we're there. Chances are, a civil war will start whenever we leave because that's the nature of the beast. The ugly truth is that some sort of stability follows a civil war, and I think we might just be postponing that by sticking around.

The police and soldiers we're training in Iraq are a dubious proposition at best. They may very well be signing up for the money, and when the US leaves, be it tomorrow or ten years from now, they most likely will revert to their religious or family loyalties. I would. So this program is quite possibly useless.

We're providing almost no jobs to Iraqis, but American contractors are making big bucks (don't get me started...). Just providing the resources for Iraqis to rebuild their own infrastructure would, in my opinion, be better than trying to do it for them with our own people.

And, as for a terrorist breeding ground, I totally disagree. I don't think you can get a better terrorist breeding ground than Iraq today, where the American oppressor is on every corner with a rifle. I think the terrorist breeding over there is hot and heavy right now.

Make no mistake, I see the underlying fucked-upness of the situation. I just don't think the presence of coalition soldiers is unfucking the situation, and thus I see no reason for them to put their asses in the line of fire, in service to a lost cause.
 
 
Baz Auckland
20:40 / 21.11.05
It looks like this debate's coming up again in the news since John Murtha of Pennsylvania started calling this week for the immediate withdrawl from Iraq...

His resolution was shot down 403-3, but it's been entertaining watching Bush and etc. call him names for a day, and now call him a patriot...

Murtha expressed confidence that terrorist bombings in Iraq would cease once U.S. troops were gone and Iraqis became solely responsible for their destiny.

"Absolutely, we're the target. We're the enemy," Murtha said. "(The Iraqis) are a proud people, they've been around a lot longer than we have. They've going to win this themselves, they're going to settle this themselves. They have to, there's no alternative."


Has anyone's opinion changed as to whether the armies should get out now or stick around?
 
 
w1rebaby
20:52 / 21.11.05
It wasn't his resolution. He proposed a relatively doable mechanism for getting out of Iraq - at least, acceptable for the US establishment. What was proposed was a parody of that which bore no resemblance to what he proposed apart from the very basic idea of getting out of Iraq. He didn't even vote for it himself. The whole point of it was to ridicule his position, and it seems to have worked.
 
 
quixote
01:49 / 22.11.05
This is a there-ain't-no-way-to-get-there-from-here situation. The US made the horrific mess, and the US has the moral obligation to clean it up. But in a lot of ways the US *is* the mess, so it can't clean it up.

The Iraqis are dead set against troops from any of their neighbors, for the simple reason that they have a few thousand year history of invasions and counterinvasions with said neighbors. So a "regional" force would have to be a "not-very-regional" force.

The US-fostered, divide-and-conquer sectarianism is so rampant at this point that merely removing the irritant provided by the US will probably not be enough to cure it.

The only useful role I can see for the US is to pay for a solution devised by some statesbeing with the wisdom of Solomon.

(The other useful thing the US could do is get back to having free and fair elections in this country, so that kleptocrats can't take over the government and cause these messes to begin with.)
 
 
Slim
02:17 / 22.11.05
A regional force would never work, the Iraqis are far too nationalistic. They're Iraqi first, Shiite and Sunni second.

Interestingly enough, just today Iraqi factions requested a timetable for a U.S. departure. You'd think that would be something they'd want to weigh in on.
 
 
Sjaak at the Shoe Shop
10:00 / 22.11.05
The US were very keen on keeping the UN out of 'post' war Iraq. At the time it might have worked, but now it is really too late. Historically peace keeping missions only worked when all parties were more or less tired of fighting, but failed in real conflict areas.

Still, in my opinion a UN force could have worked. It would not so much be a regional force but composed primarily out of muslim countries and countries sufficiently remote from the US. Examples of the first could be Indonesia or Malaysia, the second various African, Asian, or South American nations.
At least it would have made it difficult to portray the conflict as between muslims and the west.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
10:10 / 22.11.05
A regional force would never work, the Iraqis are far too nationalistic. They're Iraqi first, Shiite and Sunni second.

Anything to support that, Slim? I'm interested in the relationship of Iraqis to Iraq, given the artifical and fairly recent nature of its creation...
 
 
Slim
12:33 / 22.11.05
I've read many times over that the Iraqis are highly nationalistic people. Perhaps this line of thinking is a case of creeping validity but I believe it has to do with how Iraq has been a secular regime (though like you said, not for very long). Shiite Iraqis, as far as I know, did not have a problem killing Shiites in Iran. If religion took precedence over their nationality, perhaps this would not have been the case.

I'm going home for Thanksgiving today but if I can come up with any specific sources for you before I leave, I will.
 
 
Ganesh
12:42 / 22.11.05
Interestingly enough, just today Iraqi factions requested a timetable for a U.S. departure. You'd think that would be something they'd want to weigh in on.

Maybe - or maybe they feel resigned to the supposition that any timetabled withdrawal is likely to be more influenced by factors other than what they necessarily want to happen.
 
 
Sjaak at the Shoe Shop
13:24 / 22.11.05
A regional force would never work, the Iraqis are far too nationalistic. They're Iraqi first, Shiite and Sunni second.

So to summarize, three major factions: Kurds, Sunni, and Shiite Iraqis.
Of these factions the Sunni are mostly Arab, the Kurds are Eurasian. Shiites I am not sure about, but considering their location and close ties with Iran I would guess they may to a large extent be Eurasian as well.

Secondly, the Sunni have been in charge of the country since it was founded, however oil is primarily found in the northern Kurdish provinces and some in the southern delta which is Shiite. Finally, the only access to sea is via the Shiite south.

All the ingredients for a civil war are there, and I would hazard a guess that the Iraqi nationalism was primarily found amongst Sunnis..
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
14:03 / 22.11.05
Shiite Iraqis, as far as I know, did not have a problem killing Shiites in Iran. If religion took precedence over their nationality, perhaps this would not have been the case.

I think the assumption that co-religionists will not fight each other unless there is an overriding nationalist imperative is possibly unsafe. The Ba'ath party had an Iraqi nationalist position after Saddam Hussein came to power in 79, hence the war with Iran in the first place - before that Ba'athism in Iraq was at least notionally Arab nationalist rather than Iraqi nationalist. However, a conscript army may not make such distinctions, nor such distinctions as Iraqi/Shi'ite.
 
 
sleazenation
14:29 / 22.11.05
Well, its probably a good rule of thumb that things are always a little mre complicated than they first appear.

Iraqi nationalism is not really analagous to nationalism in the US, not least because, as it has been pointed out, Iraq is a relatively recent and almost entirely artificial modern construct. Many Iraqis have a deep investment in Iraq as it is currently constituted, most notably those of mixed shia and sunni heritige, something not uncommon in the old, dictatorial but secular iraq.

However, outside of those with an investment in the idea of 'Iraq' it would seem that 'Iraqi' nationalism is more ofen a cry against 'foreigners' be they the rather unignorable US-led forces or people of a different ethnicity, religion, family, from down the road...

At the moment it seems that the region known as iraq is a place with 1,001 intricate and interconnected problems, (many of which have been brought to crisis point by the US led invasion and occupation) and no easy solutions...
 
 
grant
15:36 / 22.11.05
So to summarize, three major factions: Kurds, Sunni, and Shiite Iraqis.
Of these factions the Sunni are mostly Arab, the Kurds are Eurasian. Shiites I am not sure about, but considering their location and close ties with Iran I would guess they may to a large extent be Eurasian as well.



As far as I know, Sunni and Shiia are purely religious distinctions, while Kurd is an ethnic distinction.

Here's more on that -- only 10 percent of Muslims worldwide are Shiia, but they're the majority in Iraq and Iran (and in Bahrain and Yemen, but those are comparitively tiny countries).
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
09:57 / 25.11.05
Pulling the troops out is back in the news, as Democrat John Murtha demanded an immediate withdrawal.

What I find interesting here is that the Bush machine went on its usual attack strategy, and has been utterly messed up by it. New hire Jean Schmidt claimed that one of her constituents, an Ohio state representative, had told her "cowards cut and run, marines never do". She has been on a crow-based diet pretty much ever since - the constituent in question has disclaimed ever having said such a thing, and it has also thrown into slightly sharp relief just how far down the Republican hierarchy you seem to have to go before you encounter people who actually served with honour in Vietnam - barring John McCain, who must be once again attempting in private to eat his own head. Bush and Cheney have both had to assert how much they and America like Murtha after Scott McLelland accused him of following the politics of Michael Moore (whether that is such a dirty smear outside the heartland of the Neocons and the religious right is another question, but its inaccuracy functioned independently of that). So, although the proposal to pull out immediately was defeated comprehensively, the disproportioante and personal assault launched by the Republicans seems to have backfired, both by making them look stupid and by focusing attention on broader opposition to the war.
 
 
alas
15:08 / 25.11.05
Haus's assessment of the situation in the US seems pretty accurate to me. Here's another Washington Post op-ed piece, by the TV liberal Michael Kinsley (i.e., he's a tie-wearing, "let's be reasonable", not-too-radical kind of liberal), that also argues (kinda) for leaving. Or at least that completely dismissing the idea of leaving is a bad idea.
 
  
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