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Movement in Kashmir - and possibly the good kind

 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
11:41 / 18.11.04
Well, gosh. Not only has Manmohan Singh announced a reduction in troop numbers in Kashmir (admittedly a bit of a symbolic gesture, but highly symbolic), but he has also made what sounds like an offer to talk to Kashmiri leaders. Gen. Musharraf is stressing the need for flexibility on all sides, and is talking to anti-India leaders in Kashmir...

On the other hand, India is still complaining about cross-border infiltration, Pakistan is insisting it isn't a problem, India is apparently keen to recognise the current line of division, which Pakistan doesn't see as a solution...

So, is there any grounds for optimism? IS there a solution involving demilitarisation, power sharing, UN administration or any combination of the above? Can Musharraf control the anti-Indian element in Kashmir? Will Vladimir ever be able to visit India?
 
 
unheimlich manoeuvre
23:57 / 18.11.04
The region is also in China's sphere of influence

tribuneindia.com 19.11.04

India claims China is illegally occupying 43,180 sq km of Jammu and Kashmir including 5,180 sq km illegally ceded to Beijing by Islamabad under the Sino-Pakistan boundary agreement in 1963. On the other hand, China accuses India of possessing some 90,000 sq km of Chinese territory, mostly in Arunachal Pradesh.

dailytimes.com 19-11-2004


The Kashmir dispute, the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline and the controversial Baghliar Dam top the agenda for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz’s upcoming visit to New Delhi.


Asia Times Online. Oct 20, 2004

On its western borders, China has been an active player in the "New Great Game", having signed an agreement with Kazakhstan in 1997 to access its energy resources. With increasing oil prices and instability in the Middle East, China is pushing ahead with a pipeline to Kazakhstan and other energy-rich Central Asian states. China's leading chemical trader, Sinochem Corporation, has recently acquired Korean oil refiner Inchon Oil in China's first takeover of a foreign oil company.

(threadrot)
Peak Oil Capacity ought to be in the keywords for most Switchboard threads. George Bush is Big Oil's candidate.
(/threadrot)
 
 
grant
01:24 / 19.11.04
Ironic choice of phrasing, since "sphere of influence" was first coined to refer to the slicing up of China to colonial/imperial concerns (as far as I know).

If you look closely on a good map, you do see two grey areas around northern India, a Chinese one and a Pakistani one. Like on this %totally unbiased page% here. Dude.

Here's a two-year-old analysis from the BBC, which blames part of the tensions on the Dalai Lama (who lives in India now). China's border issues are pretty darn complicated just about everywhere, though.

I'd be willing to bet part of any current situation has to do with American attitudes towards our "friend" in The War Against Terror, Pakistan. This kind of leaves India a bit out in the cold, since I doubt they'll be getting too warm with China any time soon. No wonder there's rising nationalism then, I guess. I guess they can't keep escalating, though -- the US and China won't allow it. That's a pretty terrible thing to say about two sovereign nations, but I think it's true.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
07:46 / 19.11.04
I think that, to an extent, a nation with a population over a billion and a nuclear deterrent doesn't need a huge amount of (political) support from the US... the US is unlikely to intercede in Jammu and Kashmir, but was it ever likely to?

Pakistan is a more interesting question. The US does not have an alliance with Pakistan, but one with Gen. Musharraf, who has to deal with anti-US elements within his country and his own administration. If he resolves Kashmir without conflict, he gains massive political points, but he also risks, depending on the nature of the settlement, appearing weak. On the other hand, Pakistan is currently stuck in a territorial dispute with two countries with massive armies and significantly greater nuclear power, which is not in itself ideal...
 
 
sleazenation
08:50 / 19.11.04
Correct me if I am wromg, but Isn't a return to democracy one of the things the US is pressing for in Pakistan - with General Musharraf leaving office seen as a major part of that? It would seem somewhat problematic if a key element of the US/Pakistan is based on General Musharraf staying where he is...
 
 
diz
12:31 / 19.11.04
kind of unrelated but not really: does anyone know what the relationship is like between the Maoist rebels in Nepal and barely-even-Maoist-in-name-only-anymore China? i have the weird but persistent feeling that the civil war in Nepal is going to produce some sort of major ripple that acts as a tipping point in the Central Asian instability sweepstakes sometime soon.
 
 
grant
14:10 / 19.11.04
Isn't a return to democracy one of the things the US is pressing for in Pakistan

Define "pressing."

------

I just heard a bit on the radio this morning about India announcing some sort of multi-million dollar development in Kashmir. Lemme see....

Here's India's announcement, which appears on Google News right after the World Bank saying, "Hey, wouldn't this be a swell idea?"


From that Forbes article: Once India and Pakistan sort out their political differences, the World Bank can step in to fund development projects on both sides of divided Kashmir, he said.

His comments came as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh winded up a two-day visit to Jammu-Kashmir state, promising investment of up to 240 billion rupees (US$5.3 billion; euro4.1 billion) in various development projects over the next four years. Some of the money, he said, will come from international financial institutions.

The funds would go to building new roads and schools, and developing infrastructure for water, power and health care. The initiatives are expected to create 24,000 new jobs, including 14,000 for women.

Earlier Thursday, Wolfensohn met with the finance minister and top policy makers to discuss the World Bank's activities in India.

"We have committed US$9 billion dollars (in aid) in the next years, US$3 billion annually," he said. The funds are mostly meant for water, power and road projects, he said.


So, not guns but butter?

Here's something from the Pakistani media on the offer (focusing on Singh telling militants to lay down their arms), and here's the China Daily News version, which paints Singh as a man trying desperately to encourage peace if only those darned Islamist militants would stop shooting.

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does anyone know what the relationship is like between the Maoist rebels in Nepal and barely-even-Maoist-in-name-only-anymore China?

I really have no idea, but I bet they're related to whatever China's equivalent to the CIA is, and their fate really depends on what goes on with Tibet (and, by extension, India, home of Tibet's gov't-in-exile). China might not be Maoist per se, but Mao is still a Big Deal there, so anything labeled "Maoist" is gonna be A-OK with most ordinary folks over there. Until they start shooting at Chinese people, I guess.

Now that you mention it, I wonder what ties China maintains with El Sendero Luminoso in Peru.....

On the other hand, check out today's news:

Kathmandu, Nov 19 : Twelve suspected Nepalese Maoist insurgents were arrested by Chinese police while trying to smuggle in arms and ammunition near the border with Tibet, reports said Friday.

...

Four Maoists were arrested in October last year from the same area of China-controlled Tibet.

The latest arrests come in the wake of the Chinese authorities handing down the death sentence to two Maoists for arms smuggling in September.

The verdict created an uproar as it was the first time any Maoist rebel had been given capital punishment by a foreign country. It prompted even Nepal, which abolished the death sentence in 1997, to urge China to revoke the death penalty.

...

Though the Maoists, who have been waging an eight-year-old guerrilla war to replace Nepal's constitutional monarchy with a communist republic, say they are following the doctrine of Chinese leader Mao Zedong, Beijing disowns them.

Chinese ambassadors to Nepal have been saying the Maoists tarnish the image of their leader by naming themselves after him.


So, uh, cancel what I said earlier. Heh. Apparently, the Shining Path bears no great love for modern China, either.
 
  
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