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Predictions for a post-Arafat Palestine

01:50 / 29.10.04

From The Economist:

"The veteran Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, is being flown to Paris for urgent treatment after becoming seriously ill. His death or incapacitation could remove a big obstacle to Middle East peace. Or it could trigger a bloody power struggle among Palestinian factions

If the Palestinian leader now dies or becomes incapacitated, the consequences for the Gaza pull-out plan and for the stalled Middle East peace process would be hard to predict. If an eventual successor to Mr Arafat took a more unequivocal stand against violence by Palestinian militants, Israel would no longer be able to say it has no acceptable negotiating partner. This, up to now, has been Mr Sharon’s justification for pulling out of Gaza without consulting the Palestinians.

It is not difficult to imagine an eruption of fighting between the various Palestinian factions, preventing the emergence of a consensus leader and making elections impracticable. The occupied territories might even collapse into an Afghan-style collection of fiefs run by local warlords. In recent weeks, there have been signs of increasing friction between the factions, including a car-bombing attempt against Mr Arafat’s nephew, and street battles between some of the PA’s rival security forces."

Any thoughts on the consequences (for good or bad) if Arafat dies in the near future? (or at least is barred by the Israeli government from returning)

Are things likely to get more militant or more moderate?

02:20 / 29.10.04

Power vacuum. If Arafat doesn't face facts and pick a successor or at least set the machineries of bureaucracy in motion I definitely see the more radical factions making a power grab. The Prime Minister (I don't recall if Abass was allowed to step down or not) is primarily a figurehead as I recall. You can be sure that Israel isn't going to sit around thinking nice thoughts while waiting for the situation to resolve itself- possibly another Six-Day War as Israeli soldiers make a move to grab as much territory as possible while the PLO get's their act together.

Which will in turn mobilise Syria (since they're on the shit-list too).

13:30 / 29.10.04

Arafat's death certainly won't slow Israel's turning Gaza into a Bantustan (airspace and borders tightly Israel-controlled). The dynamic between Arafat and Sharon is pretty much like that between former Washington DC Mayor Marion Barry and the Republican Congressmen who controlled DC's budget in the 1990s--living down to each other's low opinion. Like Barry, Arafat was a fighter who degenerated into a local despot while living off past glory. Each used his power to reward friends and punish enemies. While Israeli rockets levelled refugee camps, Arafat still found time to disappear a few enemies.

Arafat's designated successor, if there is one, won't have his glory or charisma, so the PA is essentially defunct. Maybe Hamas are hiring. Hamas found Arafat useful for awhile because he provided political cover for their infrastructure but they don't now. Sharon found him useful in blaming him for every Hamas outrage, over which Arafat has no control.

A many-sided civil war is the *best* outcome.

13:31 / 29.10.04

I meant "best case scenario."

17:30 / 29.10.04

If an eventual successor to Mr Arafat took a more unequivocal stand against violence by Palestinian militants

this is consistently one of the weirdest and most delusional recurring aspects of the "peace process": the belief that Arafat is not doing enough to suppress terrorist attacks. people seem to actually believe that if Arafat renounced terrorist violence, that the violence would stop, and don't seem to acknowledge that the most likely scenario would be that he would simply lose what support and credibility he has left in the Occupied Territories. Arafat's been the one trying to drag the radicals into the peace tent for years, and trying to do as much as he could while still maintaining credibility.

i think the Israelis and many of their backers are going to be in for a rude awakening when he kicks it, and they learn he was probably the most pro-Israeli leader left in Palestine.

my sincerest hope is that whoever ultimately succeeds Arafat abandons the two-state plan, which, as bjacques pointed out, is leading inexorably toward a Palestinian Bantustan. a one-state solution that integrates Palestinians into an expanded Israel/Palestine as full citizens is the way to go.

18:26 / 29.10.04

I'm not sure, Diz, if ( right wing ) Israel or any of it's backers are going to be in for an awakening to anything other than what they've pushing for all these years, which is an excuse, in terms of leadership, to utterly incinerate the Palestinian population. Y'know, as opposed to just doing that in what must seem like quite frustratingly slow and incremental stages. Will the Sharon government be stepping up it's attacks on the Palestinians in the weeks to come, in the hope of whoever takes over being as venomously anti-semitic as humanly possible ? I can't say I'd honestly be that surprised.

00:41 / 30.10.04

a one-state solution that integrates Palestinians into an expanded Israel/Palestine as full citizens is the way to go.

While I agree as a point of philosophy, in practice the "one-state solution" is a delusional pipe-dream given the current level of hostility between the two groups involved. Not going to happen, nor should it at this point given the amount of bloodshed that would surely follow any attempt at such a thing.

13:57 / 01.11.04

Chaos. That's what will happen if/when Arafat dies. But then again, that's what is happening now when he's alive, so I'm afraid it doesn't make much difference.