BARBELITH underground
 

Subcultural engagement for the 21st Century...
Barbelith is a new kind of community (find out more)...
You can login or register.


Trouble from China

 
 
Nobody's girl
11:57 / 21.08.04
In a Laboratory thread someone is proposing that the gender imbalance due to the single child poilcy is about to cause "serious trouble from China".

I suspect that if we DO see "serious trouble from China" then it may be because of much more pertinent factors- primarily economic factors. But I have to concede that I know very little about China and its circumstances. Could China pose a threat to the "Western" ascendancy? Why would China want to be a threat to the "West"?
 
 
wembley can change in 28 days
16:33 / 21.08.04
Aside from people feeling more comfortable in their own culture and, in general, possessing a drive to preserve it, there will be very little ideological reason for China to pose a threat to the West.

Economics, however, is a totally different ball game. The United States, IMHO, is not taking outsourcing seriously enough, or if they are, they sure aren't telling us. The fact is that there are many, many people in China who are well-educated and willing to work for less money than folks in the states (just using the US as an example here). Of course people have an idea that this kind of thing is exploitative for the worker and even worse for the one who loses his job to the competition, but these kinds of ideals rarely enter one's head when the company offers you a better opportunity to pay your bills and feed your family.

Economic regulations in China are not what they are in the US; environmental regulations (for example) are nearly nonexistant, which can save companies money. You can choose to run a more scrupulous business, but you'll never be able to run it at the same level as your turn-a-blind-eye competitors.

And then there's the fact that China is the biggest market for a great number of goods, and will be the natural home base for many companies in the future. I keep telling my little brothers that if they really want to have a business edge over other white kids, they should start learning Mandarin. Everyone should learn it anyway; it's a fascinating language.
 
 
grant
14:43 / 22.08.04
The effect of gender imbalances on China's politics is an idea that's been doing the rounds for a while now -- here's a USA Today article on it.

"Anybody who is expecting China to become a democratic paradise, well, I don't think they're looking at the sex ratios," says Valerie Hudson, a Brigham Young University political scientist who studies the political effects of gender imbalances

and

As a result, China will have 29 million to 33 million unmarried males ages 15-34 by 2020, according to a report by Hudson and Andrea Den Boer of Britain's University of Kent in a forthcoming issue of the journal International Security. Other estimates put the 2020 figure at 40 million young, unmarried men — known in Chinese as guang guan, "bare branches" or "bare sticks." That's more than the current female populations of Taiwan and South Korea combined.


Most of the millions of men who will go unmarried over the next two decades are China's "losers in societal competition," Hudson and Den Boer report.


and

The Chinese government is alarmed at the surplus of bachelors. "This is a seriously dangerous ratio," Ren Yuling, a delegate to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Committee, recently told China Youth Daily. "The numbers mean that some people will never have their needs for a spouse met, so they move into dangerous territory."


The Chinese magazine Beijing Luntan predicted as early as 1997 that "such sexual crimes as forced marriages, girls stolen for wives, bigamy, visiting prostitutes, rape, adultery ... homosexuality ... and weird sexual habits appear to be unavoidable." Prostitution already is epidemic in Chinese cities. Bride-trafficking is common in the countryside. Kidnapped brides have fetched $600 apiece in rural Hebei Province, Chinese media have reported, though many of the women manage to run away.


It's my understanding that the same problem exists (to a lesser degree) in India.

With China, everything gets exaggerated because the country consists of something like 1/5 of the world's population. So the rest of the world could feel their social effects from gender imbalances, but also economic problems related to environmental problems. (Check out what desertification is doing to world grain prices.)
 
 
Nobody's girl
18:31 / 22.08.04
Maybe this is a little niave of me, but why don't these "Bare Branches" look elsewhere for women if it's such a big deal?

And anyway, after WWI there was a tremendous gender imbalance yet I don't remember it ever being cited as a reason why nation states were getting more bellicose.
 
 
wembley can change in 28 days
05:57 / 23.08.04
Nobody's girl, I think that is a little naive -- these men don't necessarily have the means to travel. They may have to support their families, and there's always the language barrier.

On your second point, wasn't the gender imbalance the opposite after WWII? Women don't have the reputation of getting together and setting off bombs (not that they couldn't, I'm just saying...)
 
 
diz
15:20 / 24.08.04
Nobody's girl, I think that is a little naive -- these men don't necessarily have the means to travel. They may have to support their families, and there's always the language barrier.

not only that, but neighboring countries don't really have the capacity to absorb that kind of overflow, politically, socially, or economically.

not peacefully, anyway.

and therein lies the problem. i could give a rat's ass about Western ascendancy. in fact, on that score, i'm glad China's around to counterbalance US dominance to some degree, because the last thing we need is any more reason to believe that we can or should run roughshod all over the globe.

however, this sort of thing has the potential to ignite all sorts of conflicts with neighboring countries, which would then spiral into huge regional upheaval which will disrupt the global economy and tax existing peacekeeping arrangements to the limit (or, possibly, beyond the limit). it's a potential powderkeg.
 
 
grant
15:45 / 24.08.04
Maybe this is a little niave of me, but why don't these "Bare Branches" look elsewhere for women if it's such a big deal?

Not only is, uh, distribution of women a problem... there's also not enough women elsewhere, either. The article I quoted says that the population of "bare branches" is larger than the female population of Taiwan and South Korea combined. Well, there are also men in Taiwan and South Korea seeking mates -- I don't think any country on Earth has the same scale of gender imbalance going in the opposite direction.


According to some, it was the gender imbalance after WWI that led to the success of the Women's Suffrage movement.
 
 
Nobody's girl
16:49 / 24.08.04
i could give a rat's ass about Western ascendancy. in fact, on that score, i'm glad China's around to counterbalance US dominance to some degree, because the last thing we need is any more reason to believe that we can or should run roughshod all over the globe.

Absolutely.

According to some, it was the gender imbalance after WWI that led to the success of the Women's Suffrage movement

So gender imbalance could possibly do good things? I have to say though, the party line I was taught at school about women's suffrage was that women's contribution to the war effort was most likely the defining factor.

I'm still concerned that the gender imbalance is overplayed as a reason for growing unrest in China. I'm just not convinced it's likely to lead to wars and so forth. It sounds a little sexist to be honest- too many men not getting enough pusssy = angry men starting wars. Nah, I just don't buy it.

I remember being told that a country in South America (Argentina?) had a gender imbalance similar to China in the past (post-war?), does anyone know anything about this?
 
 
Michelle Gale
20:07 / 24.08.04
So gender imbalance could possibly do good things?

I'm not sure it would in China, even with the Communist parties line in gender equality China is still a very very sexist country, there is still a great deal of gender discrimanation. In rural areas especially, there are many arranged marriges that are often against the will of the woman involved, and kidnapping of women appears to becoming more prevalent. I dont really seeing this getting better as the the differeance in the number off men and women increases. If anything this disparity may lead to a greater commodification of women.

There is also a big influx of rootless males of working age in to the cities looking for work, that while helping fuel economic growth is causing quite a bit of cival unwrest. These young chaps provide cheaper labour and tend to be hired at the expense of people who have resided in the cities longer, which unsurprisngly does not make the cities residents particularly happy. The dissolution of the "Work Groups"(i think thats what they were called theyre like trade unions that run your life for you) means that theres considerabaly less job security, which puts a strain on things further.

Undoubtedly China's economy will grow and grow, but the population is becoming more polarised, the Chinese Communist Party even lets bussiness men in now. I'm not sure things bode that well really. Then again im a very pessemistic generally
 
 
diz
20:38 / 24.08.04
I'm still concerned that the gender imbalance is overplayed as a reason for growing unrest in China. I'm just not convinced it's likely to lead to wars and so forth. It sounds a little sexist to be honest- too many men not getting enough pusssy = angry men starting wars. Nah, I just don't buy it.

I remember being told that a country in South America (Argentina?) had a gender imbalance similar to China in the past (post-war?), does anyone know anything about this?


i don't have the study handy, but i remember a huge project done not too long ago which basically demonstrated a direct correlation between levels of imbalance between male and female populations and instability and particularly aggressive war-making. simply put, according to this study, virtually every time in modern history that a nation has had significantly more males than females within a certain age range, that country went to war with its neighbors.

i was highly skeptical, but i remember looking over a lot of the research and finding it hard to argue with. i'd have to look for it in more depth, and come back, though.
 
 
grant
21:02 / 24.08.04
This is more of an economic thing, but a friend coincidentally forwarded me an article today about Motorola and the Chinese cellular phone industry. Every month, five million people sign up for cell phone service in China. That's a lot of phones.

Here's a passage I thought really interesting (the italics are mine) :

One of Motorola's most important suppliers is the battery maker BYD Company Ltd., based in Shenzhen, near Hong Kong. In only a decade, the private company has gone from virtual invisibility to owning more than 50 percent of the global market in mobile-phone batteries. Before BYD, phone batteries were made in highly automated plants, like those run by Sanyo and Sony in Japan. But BYD, like Wanfeng, stripped robots and other machines out of the manufacturing process and replaced them with an army of workers. By paying for Chinese salaries, and not for million-dollar American, German or Japanese machines, BYD slashed the price of batteries. Initially the company could not meet Motorola's quality demands, but the American company sent a team of engineers to work with the upstarts, and six months later BYD earned a Six Sigma certification, a universally recognized badge of quality (which Motorola itself invented). The fact that in China machines can be replaced by people for huge cost savings and without sacrifice in quality changes the competitive landscape of the global marketplace. When Motorola and Nokia were pressed to lower their prices by Chinese competitors, they turned to BYD.



It also says that 1. Motorola's best technology was put to work in China, where cell phones are more efficient (cover more area, better service for less) than in the US, and 2. Motorola can now no longer to afford to pull out of the Chinese marketplace, because "the Chinese companies that emerged from the crucible of their market would be the leanest and most aggressive in the world, and a company like his would have no idea what hit it". That second thing sounds marvelously science fictiony, but I'm not positive it's as accurate as it could be. Maybe half true, and half drama. I'm no expert in the economics, but the language is definitely adversarial/propagandistic (earlier, the author refers to "an army of workers" replacing machines -- machine soldiers, see -- followed by the lean and hungry sharks coming out of the crucible -- metal sharks, man).

I'll try to source the article now... ah, apparently it's from the July 4 New York Times cover. You can find more excerpts over here.
 
 
Baz Auckland
02:49 / 25.08.04
According to the big list of Gender Ratios at the CIA World Factbook, China has 1.06 males to each 1 female in the ages 15-64...

In sheer numbers this is lot of single men, but as a ratio, it's not much worse than a lot of other countries. Tahiti, Greenland, Jordan, and Qatar are a lot worse (with Qatar the worst with 2.32 men to every 1 woman)... Curiously, India has a larger male population as well, at 1.07/1...
 
 
grant
16:43 / 25.08.04
I think the problem is that the gender numbers get skewed a lot more when you break the population down into the 18-34 age group. This is the group that's really feeling the effects of the One Child Policy in a way the older population hasn't. The 15-18s and 35-65s are both less in the find-mate-and-settle-down mode, with the 35-65-y-o men already having enough women to settle down with, on average. I think.

Even so, I think Qatar is not only smaller than China's smallest province, it's probably got fewer people than China's smallest city. Its total population is 840,290, and its area is smaller than Connecticut, according to the Factbook. So I don't think Saudi Arabia has to worry about a Qatarian invasion anytime soon.

Terrorists, though.... Hmm. Saudi Arabia's population is 1.36 men/women in the same range, Oman's is 1.49, and the UAE's is 1.61. Yemen and Bahrain's are closer to 1. I'm not sure if these stats can be mapped over, say, Al Qaeda membership rates, but they are kind of interesting in that light.
 
 
flufeemunk effluvia
21:26 / 25.08.04
...So THAT'S why...
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
09:28 / 26.08.04
I think the number of Al-Qaeda members per head of population in the UAE is probably rather lower than in Saudi or Yemen, say, but that's just a hunch.

Something I *have* heard advanced is that Wahabbism and extremism in Saudi in particular are related not to the gender differential per se, but to the possibilities of marriage. If you are not related to the royal family, you are comparatively unlikely to get a remunerative job, as the civil service in particular is choked with appointments of distant cousins. Those with remunerative jobs are more likely to have one or more wives. Therefore, a lot of people at the lower end of the social spectrum know pretty much for certain fairly early in their lives that they hve no chance of marrying, starting a family or indeed having sex in a fashion acceptabe to their communities.. hence the move to fundamentalist Islam and subsequent fiestiness.

Not sure I buy it totally, but hey.
 
 
grant
14:22 / 26.08.04
Wow - there's a lot of threads getting tied up in that one. I feel like I need to take a sociology class in marriage now.


========
Anyway, China popped up again over at the water wars thread in the Laboratory. In a New Scientist report on the looming water crisis, they say:
In China's breadbasket, the north China plain, 30 cubic kilometres more water is being pumped to the surface each year by farmers than is replaced by the rain. Groundwater is used to produce 40 per cent of the country's grain, and Chinese officials warned this week that water shortages will soon make the country dependent on grain imports.

North China butts up against Siberia, which I *think* is to the Eurasian wheat market what Canada is to the North American wheat market... a major supplier of a staple food source. (Correct me if I’m wrong on that -- all I can find online is that Russian wheat production is already in decline, and I'm sure as hell not an economist.)

Whatever Siberia's role in the world agribusiness market, the main point is that China's nearest neighbors to the southwest are already running out of water, and China's likely to follow suit soon. The Gobi is also expanding.
 
 
ONLY NICE THINGS
23:35 / 26.08.04
Ukraine was traditionally the wheat producer of the Soviet Union, I believe, but Ukraine produces Winter wheat and Siberia Spring wheat...
 
 
grant
20:27 / 09.11.04
More China-fear, this time from Western economists... because there are rumors that China is going to start selling its dollars.

Basically, the US dollar has been slipping in value rather dramatically over the last four years. When Clinton left office, I think a pound was worth $1.55, while today it can get you $1.83 or more.

According to that Financial Times article, China could drive the value even lower by no longer pegging the yuan (renmenbi) to the dollar. (I don't understand entirely how this works, but that's what they're saying.)

So in a couple months, the US will be a marvelous place to visit, where your money can buy two or three times as much stuff as it can at home.
 
 
lekvar
21:26 / 09.11.04
If I remember correctly nations can tie their currency to the dollar buy buying U.S. debt. When the dollar is strong this is a good deal for the buyer. When the dollar is weak they can end up with fistfulls of pretty green pieces of paper. There have been hushed whispers of China and other countries divesting themselves of their debt U.S. holdings, which would, in turn drive the dollar down more.
 
  
Add Your Reply