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23:51 / 25.06.04

Im getting increasingly embarrassed about hijacking this thread about Islam:

http://www.barbelith.com/topic/17933

Please dicuss the following:

-The world is running out of oil.
-Current wars (especially American) are based on competition for oil.
-Et cetera.

For more talking points, visit the thread linked above.

Excel doc on world oil production.

Modern petroluem science sez: we are not running out

00:09 / 26.06.04

Questions from the Islam thread:

So what do you mean when you say the US is controlling the ME oil supply to the rest of the world?

If Iraq is a US protectorate, they will be more subject to the whims of the US government than to OPEC. If the USA controls the bulk of the ME oil, Europe, Japan, Russia, etc will have to grovel to the USA to get any oil. This may result in war, or it may result in incredible energy efficienty research.

Also, please explain how the price of gasoline is up in the US right now?

Seriously, I dont know. I imagine political instability in oil-producing regions (due to Coalition occupation) might be a factor. Dunno if its revenge or caution.

The Rockefellers are behind it all you say? And why is this theory more credible than the worldwide Militant Islam conspiracy? (Beyond the consensus of a few glorified nutbars on either side?)

Standard Oil was broken up by the US govt into a few oil companies (in 1911?). These offspring companies and other oil companies colluded to play oil-exporting countries against each other, in order to keep prices down for consumers. I dont know how much anyone with the last name 'Rockefeller' was involved by this point--I know they started branching out into other interests like Carl Jung. The appearance of OPEC changed the balance of power in favour of the producers.

The (Militant) Islam conspiracy operates at the same time. I know much less about their motivations. Muslims have the advantage (like Jews) of a common religion, which encourages them to act in a common interest worldwide, without requiring a room full of secret chiefs to keep them in line with the prophecy or whatever.

15:20 / 30.06.04

Qalyn, on his LJ, pointed me towards this Washington Post article on actual undeclared wars over oil.

The major player is China. They're in a diplomatic battle with Japan over the construction of a pipeline from Siberia's oilfields. China has become the second largest consumer of petroleum after the US.

Anyway, near the end of the article is this ominous quote:
But China's most controversial oil overture has been made to a country America once regarded as its most trusted oil ally: Saudi Arabia. In recent years, Beijing has been lobbying Riyadh for access to Saudi reserves, the largest in the world. In return, the Chinese have offered the Saudis a foothold in what will be the world's biggest energy market -- and, as a bonus, have thrown in offers of sophisticated Chinese weaponry, including ballistic missiles and other hardware, that the United States and Europe have refused to sell to the Saudis.

The article's author, Paul Roberts, who also wrote The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, doesn't think this will lead to a direct conflict or a world war. He thinks it'll lead to a lot of minor conflicts that'll destabilize the world economy.

I mean, a partnership between the Saudis and China seems made in heaven -- both are cultures that are familiar with a particular kind of negotiation etiquette (at least, they both haggle in the marketplace the way you don't see in Europe or America), and they're both more comfortable with authoritarian governments. I'm not sure how firmly the Saudi government controls its economy -- how free are their markets?

17:27 / 30.06.04

Muslims have the advantage (like Jews) of a common religion, which encourages them to act in a common interest worldwide

a partnership between the Saudis and China seems made in heaven -- both are cultures that are familiar with a particular kind of negotiation etiquette (at least, they both haggle in the marketplace the way you don't see in Europe or America)

Are you sure?

19:22 / 30.06.04

About the haggling? Yeah. I haven't been to Saudi Arabia myself, but have plenty of friends who have. China's the same deal, and I've been there. I mean, the leap from that kind of everyday negotiation to the kind of boardroom-and-suit meetings involved in brokering petro-rights deals is kind of a big one, but the system is still roughly the same, and it's one that's common to both countries. I've never seen it anywhere else except maybe some antique stores in the Deep South, and, to a lesser degree, used car lots.

I'm thinking in terms of a common language of trade, really.

Our Lady Has Left the Building

14:33 / 01.07.04

substatique The (Militant) Islam conspiracy operates at the same time. I know much less about their motivations. Muslims have the advantage (like Jews) of a common religion, which encourages them to act in a common interest worldwide, without requiring a room full of secret chiefs to keep them in line with the prophecy or whatever.

At the risk of derailing, can we try and avoid the unsound assertion that people that share a certain characteristic will all act in one way? It's bollocks when the group in question is Jews and it's equally bollocks when it's the Muslims. Okay, as you were...

18:25 / 01.07.04

Yes, equally, can we not assume that business leaders outside of the west negotiate like flea market traders.

00:13 / 02.07.04

Isn't water likely to be as critical to world economic destabilization, or even moreso, than oil? I'm actually more concerned about running out of clean drinking water--it's a huge issue in the Middle East, the Western US, North Africa. Parts of Europe too, I think--Spain, no? Are these two issues interconnected?

02:52 / 02.07.04

Yes, equally, can we not assume that business leaders outside of the west negotiate like flea market traders.

Well, in these particular cultures, it's not just flea markets. It's how people buy groceries, clothes or pretty much everything else. It's not considered "tacky" or "gauche" or whatever, it's just how the system works... the (western) idea that these kinds of negotiations are for "flea market traders" (as if that's a bad thing) is kind of an illustration of what I'm talking about, actually. On the level of international business, I doubt the form is the same, but I'd bet the sense of the basic rules is identical.

All business is negotiation, no matter what you're selling or what culture you're from, but negotiation is an art, not a science. It has a language and, more importantly, a style beyond the numbers -- it's a cultured, cultural process. If it wasn't, we'd just use computers to distribute resources, and we wouldn't worry about trade imbalances leading to political instability and potential conflict.

And there wouldn't be a market for guides like these on different business practices and negotiation styles across cultures.

Isn't water likely to be as critical to world economic destabilization, or even moreso, than oil?

Actually, I posted something along these lines over yonder. Apparently, some of the biggest upsets are expected to be over *food* production. China isn't just consuming more oil than ever, but it's also consuming a lot more food... more than the country is capable of producing. Suddenly, next summer, they're going to be the first nation in history importing more food than they're producing, and that's going to make global food prices go haywire (probably).

In China's case, I suspect they're going to have to play nice-nice because they're going to be buying all this stuff and need to have lots of markets to sell their manufactured goods to. But according to the CIA Factbook entry, they've got the world's second largest economy when it comes to purchasing power. Their GDP has quadrupled in the last 25 years (and I'm pretty sure isn't showing any signs of slowing).

That's an awful lot of economic power.

07:34 / 02.07.04

It's not considered "tacky" or "gauche" or whatever, it's just how the system works... the (western) idea that these kinds of negotiations are for "flea market traders" (as if that's a bad thing) is kind of an illustration of what I'm talking about, actually.

I'd argue that your romanticised idea of other countries' culture is an illustration of what I'm talking about. You admit that westerners do haggle but besuited business is conducted differently. Why is it not the same outside the west? Have you ever been to one of these meetings? You feel, perhaps, that if the business leaders of China do not act in the same way as the market traders of their country that they would not be "authentic"? Besides, at the end of the day, isn't all negotiation haggling?

14:12 / 02.07.04

You admit that westerners do haggle but besuited business is conducted differently. Why is it not the same outside the west?

Well, I do think besuited business is conducted differently, but I also believe that a Western negotiator is going to tend towards structuring a deal the same way that deals are done in a supermarket or an auction -- clear, somewhat inflexible ideas of price, and a concept that once a contract is signed (once the bidding stops, once the credit card slip is printed up by the register), the negotiation is over.
I know that approach to deal-making, on whatever level suited or marketed, is not true in China, and was fairly sure it wasn't true in Saudi Arabia.

Have you ever been to one of these meetings?

Not exactly, although I have done business with the Chinese government. In preparation for that, I read some of the same material that MBA types cover about etiquette and expectations.

A brief trawl around the web's business resources shows much of the same cultural practices are true for Arabic cultures -- mainly the idea that a contract takes, as this Tufts report says, "the form of general principles rather than detailed rules. Why? Because, it is claimed, the essence of the deal is the relationship between the parties."

As such, the moment of signature isn't the end of negotiations in these two cultures.

You feel, perhaps, that if the business leaders of China do not act in the same way as the market traders of their country that they would not be "authentic"?

No, just that they'd be transcending culture. The same holds true for Americans, or English, or Canadians. People do that all the time, it's just not always easy.

I was making as assumption, yes, but I don't think it was the assumption you think I was making.

Besides, at the end of the day, isn't all negotiation haggling?

Yeah, I think it is. It's the style that differs.

23:02 / 02.07.04

I was making as assumption, yes, but I don't think it was the assumption you think I was making.

I'd say that I didn't know what assumption you were making but that I knew you were making an assumption. We all cool now. :-)

Our Lady Has Left the Building

10:34 / 03.07.04

< rot > I love you guys...

12:36 / 03.07.04

Y'all are sweet.

Anyway, we should try to get this back about petroleum rather than negotiation, I think.

Here: who's got it by the numbers.

And here: where they are (a pdf).

Whale... Whale... Fish!

14:59 / 07.07.04

IMHO, the arguements for breaking or dependency on oil are getting stronger. I've tried before to find the ammounts spent on research into renewable resources by various oil companies (Exonmobile, Shell/Royal Dutch, BP, etc). It would be interesting to see the differences between European and US companies. I remember hearing that Exonmobile spent more per annum on advertising than on research into oil alternatives but without any figures or articals to support this...

However I did find articals on Hydrogen-cell powered cars being delevoped by Honda.

From the Scotsman (Oct 15th 2003)

Might need to register so I found this from Honda.

I just feel that alot of problems would be solved if we can break our dependency on oil...

19:52 / 08.07.04

More background: The history, from the horses' mouths, of Saudi Arabia's oil business and of Kuwait's oil industry.

Notice how significant familiar Anglosphere companies like Chevron, Texaco and BP are.