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Canadian Federal Election, June 28th, 2004

 
 
Baz Auckland
05:01 / 02.06.04
I've just gotten in from two weeks out of the country, so I missed the election call and the first week of the campaign, so forgive me if I'm clueless as to what's happened so far: But from a quick scan of articles, the Liberals are in trouble, and my personal hoped-for scenario may come to pass (Liberal minority government with NDP alliance)....

Any predictions on the outcome? Any chance for the Conservatives to win this?
 
 
kiwi
11:07 / 02.06.04
I hope not , and let's not talk about the bloc québécois either. I live in Québec and even here they are not as popular as they were.Their cheif , Mr. Duceppe is counting on a young team. Young and not really experienced. My vote goes to the NPD. Conservatives's speach sounds too much pro-Bush to me and Paul Martin's just not fit to be Prime minister with all the subventions scandal. Anyway I won't vote for someone who's starting to sound like Rumsfeld or that approves the Star wars program...
 
 
Our Lady Has Left the Building
11:20 / 02.06.04
Any chance of an overview for those of us ignorant of the state of the Canadian political scene?
 
 
Baz Auckland
15:26 / 02.06.04
This page has neat graphs showing the results of every election since 1867...

The Liberals (centre-left?/just centre) have the current majority, and have just ended their third term in power. They seem to be dying in the polls, thanks to a big scandal (the details of which still escape me) and the replacement of Jean Chretien by Paul Martin as leader (a lot of people seem to really dislike Paul Martin, myself included). Their base is Ontario, which decides the plurality of seats in parliament.

The Conservatives (centre-right/right) are back to being one party after losing 99% of their seats in the 1993 election to the Liberals and the newly-created right-wing Reform Party. They seem to be equal with the Liberals, and God I hope they don't win... they're promising to crack down on crime and support the US more... Their base is the chunk of Canada from Manitoba to British Colombia.

The NDP (left) are my choice. They seem to be at about 15-20% in the polls, but it all depends on the ridings, alas. They may be able to grab some more seats than usual, thanks to a better leader who is quite popular in bits of Toronto at least...

The Bloc Quebecois (one issue?) exist solely to work Quebec towards seperation... this is taking a while though. Aside from the Liberals, they're the only federal party in Quebec right now it seems...

My hope is for a minority Liberal government allied with the NDP, since both the Liberals (since Martin took over) and Conservatives both support the US missle defence program.
 
 
Mister Snee
18:43 / 02.06.04
I like Canada. I think we're on the right track, tacitly joining the rest of the world in an emerging sanity and hoping the US doesn't notice. But the Conservative party, I think, -does- notice, and they're probably the only people in Canada who would like that progress to stop. They'd like to bolster our military spending, redouble and unequivocate our support of the US's foreign policy, and no doubt a whole host of whatever other evil schemes their cold, dead, cybernetic brains can manage to chatter out. Because as everyone knows, the primary directives of the right are twofold:

1. Resist change, and
2. Ruin everything.

I'm proud of Canada lately. For a long time I wasn't sure where the hell I lived but now I like Canada a lot. You can get good pot here, for cheap, pretty easily, and you can smoke it just about anywhere you want. In practice, that is. It's a liberal place, but it's lazily liberal; the mainstream local media is fairly mindless and more American in many ways than, for instance, the CBC, although I guess that's to be expected... anyway, they cover pot busts all the time and you never see them running pieces hailing the gradual opening of the rights of Canadians to self-determine their state of mind. But there you have it.

So here's how I see it: the Liberals probably won't get voted in, which I guess is too bad, since it means the Conservatives probably will. If the conservatives get in, we're fucked, so we all need to vote for the NDP. If they get in, we can have all the magic mushrooms we want. I think I remember seeing that in one of their fliers.

On the other hand, maybe the "new" Conservative party would, if elected, quietly lead the country down whatever path it happens to be on, hoping very hard to avoid making a complete mess of everything again. Maybe the tacit Europeanization of our legislation and cultural atmosphere will continue unabated, more in the people's hands than the government's, just as it's been doing.

But maybe they'll outlaw abortion and homosexuality, burn all our pot and then build a big iron roof over the country so none of us will ever know sun or rain again, just to make us hurt.

Fucking conservatives!
 
 
Baz Auckland
02:31 / 03.06.04
I'm thankfully too young to remember much of Mulroney, but from what I've heard it wasn't a fun decade politically... Maybe the Conservatives have learned from the death of the party in '93, but I doubt it...
 
 
Baz Auckland
02:34 / 03.06.04
Oh, and for some fun guessing, see The Election Prediction Project

Their current projection:

Liberal: 103
Conservative: 62
Bloc: 31
NDP: 13
Too Close to Tell: 99

...it's that '99' that's making this a somewhat fun campaign...
 
 
fluid_state
14:18 / 04.06.04
fun indeed. This is the first election where I've felt that I can make a difference by talking to as many people as possible. A curious (and disheartening) trend I've found talking to people about this is the repeat use of the phrase "strategic voting". Most folks I speak to have their hearts over by the (get ready for it) NDP. Love it, particularily since many of them are traditionally PC (or Conservative Alliance, whatever) voters. The problem being that they all feel that a vote for the NDP is the equivalent of writing "Ralph Nader" on their ballot. And when it's pointed out that everyone in (a given) group wants to vote for the same party, most claim that they can't trust anyone else to actually vote their conscience, and so will cast a vote against a party rather than for.

Even more disheartening: only two people I've spoken to (out of about, say, fifty) really seem to grasp that here, we don't vote for the PM directly. Most people are willing to totally ignore their local representatives in favour of a figurehead, and be quite honest about this voluntary ignorance.

Is it just me, or is Martin getting a royal bollicking in the press? Not that he doesn't have it coming (a coup in your own party, Paul? for shame!), but it looks like the press is virtually ignoring what a whack-job Harper seems to be.
 
 
Baz Auckland
03:40 / 05.06.04
I'm still optimistic about the NDP... NOW magazine in its usual 'optimism over truth' reporting is predicting a sweep for them in all the Toronto ridings...

The thought of Harper as Prime Minister is scary. Thanks to the Reform Party, the Conservatives are no longer the moderate 'center-right' party it used to be... 5 years of a Conservative government would end with us in Iraq, in a common market with the USA, a possible end to legal abortion, and most-likely an end to legal pot... (sigh)...
 
 
kiwi
04:12 / 05.06.04
don't forget they are for death penalty..
 
 
eye landed
09:16 / 05.06.04
You've forgotten the Green Party, who are hoping to win a seat this time around. Heh. They always get my vote. And I think they'd sweep the country if everyone under 25 voted (most of them would vote Green).

But don't feel bad for neglecting them. After all, they don't get covered by the press, they aren't let into the leaders' debates, and the only voters ideological enough to actually vote for a Green candidate are hippies and kids (75% of whom are too sleepy/stoned/forgetful/underage to make the polls). All this despite the fact that they're running more candidates than every party except the ruling Liberals.

The Canadian Prime Minister thing: we don't get to vote for him (or her) directly, but he (or she) does have more political power than the US President--or nearly any other head of a democratic government.

Stephen Harper seems to have a crack press team. No matter what the other parties do, he manages to distract the media with some stunt (like talking about abortion). Jack Layton manages to get some fringe print by praying with muslims, accusing Paul Martin of killing homeless people, and having an amusing mustache.

Harper=Bush
Martin=Kerry
Layton=Nader
Harris (Greens)=no known equivalent (spoiler?)

The differences between Canada and the USA are not based on conscience, ethics, or culture. They are based on the system of democracy and how the government can exercise its power. In Canada, we elect a powerful national leader based on his (or her) local cronies. In the USA, they elect a weaker figurehead who chooses powerful cronies and keeps them close.
 
 
Foust is SO authentic
13:11 / 05.06.04
The scandel Buz talks about is basically thus: The Liberal party stole $250 million of tax payer money and used it for add campaigns. They just stole it.

And Canadians are still willing to give them a minority government? I weep for my country.

It looks like the socio-economic righty party the Conservatives will be be helping to govern this time out. Can't say I'm happy about that. They're classic Republicans.

I'm voting for the NDP. They seem like a nice, sincere bunch, if a bit naive. The downside to this party is their reputation: they tend to raise taxes dramatically. This time out,they are offering to drop the income tax for anybody who makes less than $15 000 a year.
 
 
Foust is SO authentic
13:20 / 05.06.04
Here's the New Democratic Party Homepage.

http://ndp.ca/
 
 
kiwi
13:56 / 05.06.04
NPD do tend to raise the taxes but with positive outcomes. The other parties are not touching taxes but instead are cutting into health care and education..
 
 
Baz Auckland
15:03 / 09.06.04
Any thoughts on the Green Party? Apparently they're the only party other than the Liberals running in all 309 ridings. If it wasn't going to be a close NDP/Liberal race in my riding, I would probably try and help them.

Polls in BC are suggesting that they may actually be able to win seats for the first time in at least 2 ridings (Saanich-Gulf Islands and West Vancouver)

Green Party website

Neat Globe and Mail poll history of the last 4 years. It really bothers me that if the Liberals or Conservatives win a majority in parliament, it will be from only 35%-40% of the votes.

...and Election Prediction is up to 107 ridings 'too close to tell'.
 
 
eye landed
22:02 / 21.06.04
>Any thoughts on the Green Party? Apparently they're the only party other than the Liberals running in all 309 ridings. If it wasn't going to be a close NDP/Liberal race in my riding, I would probably try and help them.

If everyone in your riding dropped that attitude, the close race would likely disappear in favour of a green landslide. But youll be damned if youre the first, right? Fool.

In Conservative news, Stephen Harper has said he will make the CBC pay for itself in areas where free market communications can do the same job. I dont know exactly what that means, but it cant be good for our public broadcaster, which contributes so much to our identity as Canadians--which we would otherwise lose due to geographic and cultural spread. In addition, the balanced and educational CBC keeps us feeling superior to Americans, who dont have a choice beyond the dollar-fed pop culture.

I imagine this is exactly what Harper wants to accomplish, since the thrust of his campaign is to turn Canada into Ameriquita. Now hes apparently considering relaxing bilingual laws, perhaps to encourage Quebec to separate. I fear this is the election Quebec has been waiting for, as a brief coalition between Conservatives and the Bloc Quebequois could resolve the issue pretty much immediately.

To further bash Stephen Harper, the English debate showed us that he doesnt even understand his own partys budget, as he refused to reconsider the bad arithmetic he (mis)quoted. Well, that could have been a brain fart, but it still looks bad.

The Liberal party held the status quo quite well during the Chrétien years. But Paul Martins coup now seems like it was more a symptom than a cause of the partys inevitable rotten core. If we vote for the status quo now, we are voting for corruption, lies, and occultation, no matter how often Martin repeats his promises about ethics commissioners and auditors general. (Just to clarify, the Liberals stole the money by feeding it to corporations that did nothing, but the profits went to party supporters. More details from the CBC.)

The truly sad part of the scandal is that abuses of this kind are almost certainly standard procedure, and any governing party could be caught out by some morally ambiguous scheme. Equally despicable is the Liberal partys habit of cheating on their party membership lists in order to 'vote' for the party officials desired by the current leaders.

I dont know much dirt on the New Democratic Party, but Jack Laytons attack campaign is pissing me off. I liked him when he presented himself as a radical guy with the balls to implement his radical ideas, but I havent heard an idea from him for many weeks: just rhetoric about the failures of others. Ill be glad to see NDP MPs in Ottawa if they bring in proportional representation and legalize cannabis.

My province, BC, alternates rule between the NDP and whatever right or centrist party happens to be alive at the time (currently the Awful Liberals). I think its telling that the NDP always gets brought down by personal scandals (the last one turned out to be an entirely manufactured tale about someone building a deck on the party leaders house) while the right/centrist partys are generally brought down by economic problems. Anyway, I dont know how much the federal and provincial NDPs are similar.

As for the Greens, Im suspicious of how they continue to supress exmember David Icke just because he talks about loony ideas like evil lizard men from space. When I say 'supress', I mean in a similar way to Scientologists or Zionists supress: various tactics to ruin his life anywhere where they hold the power to to so. Im especially suspicious because of the synchronious connection of Green party and lizard men from space.
 
 
Baz Auckland
02:57 / 22.06.04
If everyone in your riding dropped that attitude, the close race would likely disappear in favour of a green landslide. But youll be damned if youre the first, right? Fool.

Bah. I voted NDP today because I like the NDP. I would vote Green otherwise if only because I like multi-party states...

I'm still hoping for a minority government either way. If it's a Liberal minority, the NDP can have influence. If it's a Conservative minority, my hope is that they'll fall soon enough, and the Liberals will win a majority next year...

David Icke was a member of the Canadian Green Party? Odd...
 
 
Baz Auckland
14:39 / 22.06.04
Ha! According to the Globe and Mail, Conservatives have dropped 6% under the Liberals!

Liberals now have 34% to the Conservatives' 28%...
 
 
eye landed
07:54 / 23.06.04
David Icke was a member of the Canadian Green Party? Odd...

Sorry for misleading you.

Icke was a member of the UK Greens, but the Canadian Greens were involved in preventing him from giving lectures or conferences in Canadian cities after his fallout with the UK Green party.
 
 
Baz Auckland
02:32 / 29.06.04
YEEAAAHHH!!

LIBERAL MINORITY GOVERNMENT WITH THE NDP HOLDING THEM UP!

...ah life is good...
 
 
fluid_state
11:29 / 29.06.04
Life is sho' look good. As posted on Eschaton (comments on Canadian elections):

The last time Canada had such a government (with NDP support)in the early/mid 60s, we got the Canada Pension Plan, unemployment insurance, universal, nation-wide health care, progressive changes to the nation's laws, and our very own flag (as opposed to a hybrid of the British Union Jack). Pretty damn good I'd say. Let's hope this government can do a repeat.

Fingers crossed for history repeating.
 
 
Baz Auckland
13:34 / 29.06.04
The only snag is the final result:

Liberal - 135
Conservative - 99
Bloc - 54
NDP - 19
Ind. - 1

...the Liberals and NDP need 155 seats to form a majority... and they have 154! 1 Independent guy...

Someone better cross the aisle... I'm in no mood for another election anytime soon.
 
  
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