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The spectre of military draft.

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16:35 / 14.04.04

So I have 5 brothers of conscriptable age and an American husband. I'm terrified of this possibility, someone reassure me!

16:41 / 14.04.04

Reinstating the draft? Political suicide.

Also, political suicide for Bush to not pull troops out (no matter what shape Iraq's in) before the June 30th deadline.

16:52 / 14.04.04

It's certainly possible--Bush has been quietly laying the groundwork over the last six months or so, and many on the left feel that if he wins a second term a draft is inevitable.

Personally, I can't really see the administration going through with it, as the public backlash would tear the country apart, and more to the point, most likely lose the Republicans both houses of congress two years later and the presidency two years after that. Still, the best way to avoid even the possibility is to do everything in your power to make sure Bush doesn't get the chance.

17:26 / 14.04.04

I think that if there was another big terrorist attack on US soil, and it was linked to an Al-Qada presence in Iraq, then yes, a draft could very well become a reality.

Gotta put all those unemployed young people somewhere...

17:40 / 14.04.04

A draft is a very distinct possibility. I have a Selective Service card, but I probably couldn't pass a medical examination for the infantry, on account of my flat feet (a blessing in disguse!?). I suppose if I wanted to splurge on orthotics I could make the case that I'm fit for military duty, but... I conveniently will take my insoles out. Additionally, I may be working for the UN or Foreign Service by the time a draft comes to pass anyways.

But for everyone else... I just don't see the usefulness of drafting civilians and giving them rudimentary training. Nowadays the military is a highly specialized institution; we can't just have a bunch of rookies running around in urban/counterinsurgency settings. I can just imagine a bunch of trigger-happy teenagers, all antsy from playing too much "America's Army" online, shooting at civilians and such.

Today's wars are not the kind where the government can just throw numbers at a problem. Personally I think they should invest most in cultural competency training and diplomatic relations, but everyone's too fixed on the "these people are savages, they can't be bargained with" track.

17:58 / 14.04.04

Actually, I just realized something (and if I just realized it now, I'm betting a lot of Americans haven't yet and won't later)... Bush didn't actually say he was pulling the troops out. He just said he was *handing the country over*. So that Bremer and the "provisional authority" could go home. But the troops might (will) still be there, attached to the new provisional authority.

Hmmm.

That could get really, really ugly.

18:05 / 14.04.04

Oh, the troops aren't leaving, not at all. In fact it's looking likely that more troops will be sent, as the President grudgingly acknowledged in his press conference last night.

18:12 / 14.04.04

See, I figured he was just planning on dropping it and letting God figure out what to do with it.

He might be. But he hasn't actually said that's what he was doing the way I thought he might.

Still, reinstating the draft is a sure way not to get elected.

18:18 / 14.04.04

Yeah, elected. Was Bush elected? These new oh-so-secure electronic voting booths fill me with confidence that the next US election votes will be fairly counted... Or not.

18:28 / 14.04.04

Still, reinstating the draft is a sure way not to get elected.

Well, if he does reinstate the draft he won't do it before the election. As I said above, I personally don't think he'll do it afterward either, as there are congressional elections to think of, and the 2008 presidential election (for which the Repubs have no obvious candidate, as Cheney has said he won't run) as well.

18:33 / 14.04.04

These new oh-so-secure electronic voting booths fill me with confidence that the next US election votes will be fairly counted... Or not.

I'm a bit sketched out by those as well, but there are a lot of people keeping a close eye out, and lawsuits ready to roll if, say, Bush does improbably well here in California.

20:24 / 14.04.04

I sincerely doubt even Bush would be so foolish and headstrong as to think he could get away with re-instating the draft even after any successful election victory...

and on the subject of of the election... remember problems with voting machines in Florida? Look set for more problems this coming election with electronic ballot machines that are pretty far from secure as this piece of investegative journalism shows. And if America's ballot boxes are not safe from hackers, who else are they not safe from?...

Oh and It seems many in senior execs at Diebold are keen to support President Bush. The CEO of Diebold, for example, attended strategy pow-wows with wealthy benefactors of George Bush and wrote in a fund-raising letter that he is "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year" -- even as his company seeks to win Ohio's multimillion dollar contract for new equipment from the Republican-run state government.

Isn't anyone else slightly worried at the overt conflict of interest here?

20:42 / 14.04.04

Diebold being the company that makes some of the voting machines....

flufeemunk effluvia

21:03 / 14.04.04

I have the feeling that if "a war president" is re-elected, my ass will be DRAFTED. This mainly freaks me out beacause I will be 18 in two years, just in time for Bush to unroll any kind of draft plan. I doubt that Kerry will be that much better, but at least he will listen to the left.

But for everyone else... I just don't see the usefulness of drafting civilians and giving them rudimentary training. Nowadays the military is a highly specialized institution; we can't just have a bunch of rookies running around in urban/counterinsurgency settings. I can just imagine a bunch of trigger-happy teenagers, all antsy from playing too much "America's Army" online, shooting at civilians and such.

Has that ever made a difference throughout history? Look at WWI with the doughboys we sent over. Kids. Besides, Who says you have to be well trained to be a human shield/invading force?

STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK

21:18 / 14.04.04

The impression I get is that it's not so much that he's PLANNING to reintroduce the draft- there are all manner of reasons for that, including the basic PR problem of "the V word", already being bandied about, I'd guess, a little too much for his liking.

It seems to be more that the groundwork is being put in place so that he COULD if he "needed" to. Which is very, very dangerous ground to be on indeed.

21:37 / 14.04.04

Remember during Vietnam when a whole lot of guys got drafted, said "hell no," and ran up to Canada to dodge the draft? Some of them are still here. They're productive members of our society.
Just pointing out that, if your country reinstates the draft, we have a history of harbouring draft dodgers, and this is a pretty good place to live. Worth some thought.

15:30 / 15.04.04

One problem with that: under the provisions of Patriot Act II, Canada will no longer be an option for draft-dodgers. Something to do with secure borders and harbouring non-residents. Very scary stuff indeed. Maybe instead go to some island nation in the Carribean with no extradition treaties?

16:49 / 15.04.04

For the record: all future Barbelith draft-dodgers are welcome to come and hideout with me in the UK, and if Blair goes the same way (not bloody likely!), we can all hightail it to France. Agreed?

sdv (non-human)

17:03 / 15.04.04

Sorry people - Bush/Rumsfield is closing the US bases in Saudi Arabia and planning on re-openning them in Iraq - this is an act of colonisation not peace-keeping.

sdv

A fall of geckos

18:22 / 15.04.04

I think there's a definite possibility of a draft - if the current situation in Iraq continues. As people have indicated though this is very unlikely to happen before the election. If it does happen I think it will be an act of desperation.

The recruitment drive for local draft boards last November suggests that the American government have already thought enough about it to put in place the means to re-instate conscription.

A bbc news article on the draft boards can be found here.

18:30 / 15.04.04

I have a South Korean freind who doesn't have US citizenship yet. I always joke with him that if we ever go to war with North Korea, he'll be drafted into both armies.

22:38 / 15.04.04

Looks like Rumsfeld is already extending the tour of duty for 20,000 troops... What is the betting that figure will increase over the next few months...

Wasn't Rumsfeld lobbying hard for an even SMALLER initial detachment of US foreces to invade Iraq with?

00:00 / 18.04.04

I don't have a link to it at hand, but on NPR a couple days ago, there was a piece on a group of military mothers leading a PR blitz to get their kids back home. These are, like, the dyed-in-the-wool patriots who are bugging out because the tours have been extended. I suppose it's a natural thing -- happens every time there's an engagement. The so-called "home front."

These signs, too, I remember from the last go-round. They're even funnier now, though:

00:50 / 18.04.04

I don't know if I've misread the situation - I've only been here a year and a half after all - but my continual impression is that a draft just would not work. If instituted, there would be mass civil disobedience and refusal to participate. Furthermore, if anything says "this is another Vietnam", it's a draft.

There'd have to be another, actually *convincing*, threat to the US before instituting a draft would be viable. The current state of affairs just won't cut it.

Either there's no draft, or there's a draft that causes the government to fall. One or the other. That's what I see.

08:33 / 18.04.04

Also, political suicide for Bush to not pull troops out (no matter what shape Iraq's in) before the June 30th deadline.

Suicide either way at this point isn't it, really? If he pulls the troops out like he says, then he leaves Iraq in a situation that will look like the bastard child of fill in comedy about war and fill in horrific drama about war... if he leaves them there, he's a hypocrite and a liar. Not too different from his MO to this point, but you see what I mean.

At this point, unless Kerry gets caught raping a five-year old, I don't think Bush will be making any decisions personally post-November.

18:48 / 20.04.04

Not so paranoid? Not such a fantasy?

More than one senator is now suggesting we reinstate the draft, using that old saw about sending more rich kids to war help out in the war - *cough*yeahright*cough*.

And despite all this, ALL of this, Bush's approval ratings are still at least 50%, and have actually improved somewhat in comparison to Kerry lately.

20:00 / 20.04.04

I wonder, with all the mechanisms already in place -- and the Congress lining up on the issue, whether Kerry could successfully NOT call for a draft if it came to that.

If he even felt so inclined, given his history on the war....

I mean, this could be one of those "what's the difference" deals, right? The first calls for a draft were made by a Democrat (in a gadflyish way, true), if I'm remembering right.

22:51 / 20.04.04

Well, right, if Iraq's reached official "quagmire" status by the time Kerry hypothetically takes office, he may not hypothetically have much of a choice about whether to draft more soldiers.

This got me to thinking, do you reckon they'd draft women as well? Not to draft women would be an anachronism, but drafting women would be totally unheard of in the US, no?

09:49 / 21.04.04

"the 2008 presidential election (for which the Repubs have no obvious candidate...)"

Of course they do. Arnold Schwarznegger is currently Governor of California on the Republican ticket. And Courtney Love said the other day she wants to run for Attorney-General of California on the Republican ticket. You've got two *great* presidential candidates right there!

12:40 / 21.04.04

Heh. But Arnie wasn't born in the US, so he's out.

A draft would probably backfill the ranks of national guardsmen sent ot Iraq. Draftees probably wouldn't go right away, at least not until the guardsmen they replaced have done their 4-6 months overseas. Women could be drafted, but not for combat.

If Bush got in again, that makes half (sorry, 37% or so) of the country more than happy to enforce a draft, so maybe not so much political risk.

Kerry would have more options than Bush. For one thing, he might have better luck building a consensus among Iraqis, in the Middle East and in the UN, and thus reverse the quagmire.

Solitaire Rose as Tom Servo

13:35 / 21.04.04

...the 2008 presidential election (for which the Repubs have no obvious candidate, as Cheney has said he won't run) as well.

The right wing talking points people (the Faux News folks and talk radio people) have already let it out that Jeb Bush will be running in 2008, and he is ALREADY raising money for his run. I would be shocked if he didn't run, no matter what happened in the 2004 election, with him being able to run on the "Stay the course" if GWB wins in 2004, and as "Bring back religion and honor" if he loses in 2004.

As to the draft, Democrats have been bringing it up in order to box the Republicans in on the war, but I don't see it as having much traction. I think the plan after the 2004 election if Bush wins is to keep pushing VERY hard for people who can't find work to join the military, which they have been doing already, just a bit more covertly in Unemployment offices and high schools. Has it been discussed on the board that one of the provisions of the PATRIOT Act allows military recruiters full access to high schools and their records?

21:38 / 21.04.04

If you're concerned about being drafted and wish to prevent it, may I recommend that you start by finding yourself a boyfriend.

Also, make friends with a clergy member. Have lots of conversations about the evils of war. Become a Quaker, or something similar.

Start documenting all of this now. Do not wait.

17:47 / 22.04.04

The right wing talking points people (the Faux News folks and talk radio people) have already let it out that Jeb Bush will be running in 2008, and he is ALREADY raising money for his run.

Huh. Kind of obvious, I guess, don't know why I didn't think of it myself. Good god I hope the Dems find someone with some tiny modicum of charisma by then, 'cause another eight years of Bush policies (sorry to be a downer, but I just don't see Kerry winning absent divine intervention) might do more damage than this country could easily recover from. Please, Hillary, please oh please don't run! I love you, I really do, but please stay in the Senate, at least for now...

OTOH, I suppose Jeb might not be quite so bad as W--he does actually read books, after all, and policy-wise the Twilight of the Neocons is in progress, so Jeb is unlikely to be surrounded by the same kind of Empire-building loonies that have led W. so astray. And he is marginally better on environmental issues, though admittedly that's not saying much.

17:56 / 22.04.04

And back on the subject at hand, Googling around a bit, the situation seems a bit more dire than I'd thought:

Congress brought twin bills, S. 89 and H.R. 163 forward this year, entitled the Universal National Service Act of 2003, "To provide for the common defense by requiring that all young persons [age 18--26] in the United States, including women, perform a period of military service or a period of civilian service in furtherance of the national defense and homeland security, and for other purposes." These active bills currently sit in the Committee on Armed Services.

That is to say, all the (Republican-controlled) Committee on Armed Services has to do is vote these bills out of committee and bring them to a floor vote of the (Republican-controlled) full Congress, and assuming no Republicans defect, we have a draft. They won't do it before the election, obviously, but will they do it immediately after? Even if Bush loses they could get the bill on his desk before the handover of power, though that would obviously be politically dicey...

05:47 / 16.05.04

Interesting article linked from disinfo.

More speculation on the possibilty of the draft and some handy hints on how to help your kid/self avoid being drafted.

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