We are not going to die.
Speaking now, of humanity as a species and of the other species that we know something about. I think there are some things that have to be taken into account here, and I think that there’s some good in emphasising continutity instead of disruption:
1. Human inequality. Someone like Bill Gates could, concievably buy a tropical country, eject all the people out of 75% of it or so, and use it as his private game reserve and garden. Since this could possibly happen, it probably will, so, while people would be starving and killing each other next door, at the same time Bill could sit in his private summer-palace, and watch the zebras munch away safely on his lawn. There is little risk that all of the world would turn into England, the rich people, (prince Charles would be another good example of this kind of person) wouldn’t allow it, but would instead keep big chunks of unspoilt nature out of reach of the really poor who would want the land for farming etc. Actually, this is already the present situation. If I were to become stinking rich, I’d spend my time collecting biotopes, a valley in Borneo, a piece of US desert, Russian taiga and so on, they are really cheap and it would be much more rewarding than collecting say antique furniture or stamps.
2. Global heating: even if half of the species of the world disappeared, the species that we humans care about would probably still be around but in reduced numbers. I’m talking about big predators, stuff we can eat and pretty things, like flowers. So there would probably be enough people around to protect those species, even going so far as to create artificial habitats for them in underground bunkers, if the need would arise. A number of major ecosystems will probably disappear, (the barrier reef for example) but on the whole my guess is that the species that will become extinct are the ones that we don’t know that they exist yet, and the ones that few people or people with little power care about. So were going to kill loads and loads of living beings that we don’t care about, but the beings that we like will remain. Again, this isn’t the future, were already there.
3. We probably wouldn’t be included in a mass extinction of humans either. If you read this you have access to internet, so you are probably quite rich, on the global average. Massive environmental destruction, global changes of temperature liberal doses of weird poisons spread around here and there would probably not kill the average internet user. It will kill poor people who won't be able to buy food that has been grown in closed off greenhouses (monitored for pollution) and who cant afford medical care. Our problem will probably be somewhat reduced life expectancy, perhaps we’ll have to settle for seventy years instead of 90, or for 110 instead of 150, who knows. Humans are tough, many of those who grew up in the London smog of the 1920’s and 30’s are still around today, and compared to that level of pollution, what the average westerner has to breath in today is trivial.
4. Even if the air would become too poisonous to breath in, say 200 days a year, that wouldn’t change to much, we’d just have to take our oxygen tubes on the way to work, and put protective plastics on, houses could be covered in plastics and have ventilation systems that would maintain an indoor preassure, so that not too much pollution would slip in. Nice recreational sites could be simulated in computers. Im talking about a bladerunner style future for us, a mad max future for the really poor, and utopia, extended lifespans and happiness ever after for the really rich. No big difference from today there either.
Finally, we are probably not going to get killed by the dangers that we can identify anyway. If we are going to get it, collectively, it will probably be from some kind of cause that we don't know anything about, and we won't know what hit us. So, in this regard there is no difference between ourselves and our pre-science ancestors. Theres no reason for us to have sleepless nights, compared to say, someone living in Europe during the Great Plague.
This of course is not a reason to sit around with your thumbs up your ass. Problem is, in my opinion, that many of those who care about the environment seem to be leftist secterists, and that their analyses of the situation are biased for that reason. ("Oh no! were all going to die and its Big Brothers fault!") |