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Mass Extinction - coming soon to a planet near you!

 
 
misterpc
05:34 / 19.03.04
This did my head in at 7 o'clock this morning. It appears to be considered evidence that not only are WE ALL GOING TO DIE (which is somewhat inevitable), but that WE'RE GOING TO TAKE EVERYTHING ELSE WITH US WHEN WE GO.

Check this Guardian article for more details.

So the question is this:

a) Is this more routine environmental scare-mongering (see the over-population 'crisis' of the 1970s, etc), or are we seriously en route to another extinction event?

b) How the hell does one respond to this sort of news, apart from wandering around with a bewildered look on one's face?
 
 
STOATIE LIEKS CHOCOLATE MILK
09:21 / 19.03.04
Doesn't surprise me in the slightest, though I've always been something of a doom-monger.

As far as responses go... well, try to pollute less, I guess. But that's not really gonna cut it unless everyone does... which seems unlikely.

I always thought humanity's destruction would have a certain poetic justice to it. But why everything else should suffer for our stupidity completely escapes me.
 
 
sdv (non-human)
18:10 / 19.03.04
misterpc/all

In ansewer to the two questions -

1) We are the extinction event and are not threatened with extinction ourselves.

Currently we are living through the largest species extinction event since the Dinosaurs died out. However the Dinosaurs were probably exterminated by a large asteriod or comet striking the planet. This current extinction has a single cause - human beings - perhaps after the biosphere has been made unable to support the large number of human beings the dieback of 2-4 billion human beings will take place. The human pressure on the environment is an interesting evolutionary turn of events as it is forcing all living creatures to get smaller.

2) - recognise the absurdity and obvious redundancy of all previous moral/ethical structures that suggest the 'sancity of human life' - placing a human being as more valuable than any any other living creature. Pushing the limits of the great ethicist Peter Singer to its limits. Oh and as a person living in the G20 economic Zone - become a vegetarian and consume less...

3) The probability is that the entire ecosphere will become like the UK - nothing wild that is bigger or more dangerous than a badger (size of a corgi dog)- unless it is for human consumption...

sdv
 
 
Professor Silly
21:02 / 19.03.04
...right, and the real question in so far as human survival comes down to our adaptability. I'm curious as to what we (as a species) will do in order to survive, and several scenerios come to mind.

I think a world-wide vegetarian diet seems inevitable (which doesn't sound very nice to me--the only veges I like are potatos and corn). This would mean fewer folk could live in colder climates, unless we could bio-engineer something with suitable protein and fat content.

I'd personally prefer a more Star Trek model--human structures in orbit and underground...more trees and rolling grassy hills on the surface. There's also a Star Wars world-wide-city model...which doesn't sound as pleasing....

...wait, did somebody mention space migration? Count me in!!!
 
 
Francine I
07:25 / 20.03.04
Actually, I think we should start looking for real, workable models right now.

While it's possible that the numbers are off, the idea is not. It's not a new idea, and it hasn't been convincingly refuted in the scientific community. Things do change, and it's not such a strange thing to be alive when that occurs. Only somewhat strange, in the span of things. Really, what you need to stay alive is common sense. Here's what I think we can assume.

Nobody wants a scene. Thoroughly meshed power structures do not envision a future that does not involve them. Such an event would be likely to cause rioting and trigger a variety of survival scenarios, in addition to fueling extremist political agendas worldwide.

Media coverage is likely to be sporadic and possibly misleading. It's not in anybody's interest who makes a lot of money and works for major media to do anything that might threaten their place in the scheme of things post-facto, assuming they thought such an event would occur. They have a symbiotic relationship with the aforementioned power structures.

And talk about some stacked odds.

There are already water problems in places like the Middle East. Access to petroleum will become less stable, for everyone. It's doing that now. These things will become worse in the middle of a genuine ecological crisis. Overpopulation continues. Bush develops miniature nuclear warheads which he seems to feel share none of the moral implications of their larger cousins. Nations Bush's posse wants to topple have access to older, dirtier, more violent technology, and none of the newer stuff. None of them have delivery mechanisms that'll reach us. But most of them are situated not-so-far from Israel. Israel is frightened, governed primarily by zealots with itchy trigger fingers, and her populace is highly propagandized; like other Western-industrial colonialist states. There would be retaliation, and it would be unrelenting. In the middle of a globally fucked economy, it's not likely those delivery mechanisms are going to be bought / developed any time soon; so don't expect anybody to count on MAD. The relative ability to do damage is not equal; Bush and drop bombs that he claims are semi-nukes, or quasi-nukes. If Iran develops a ready-for-production nuclear warhead, it's not going to be a "mini", or a "semi", or a "quasi". So if it all comes down to it, Middle Eastern states will press the barrel to Israel's head, praying it'll make the U.S. stop. It's anybody's guess what might happen.

It doesn't have to involve all of these elements. I suppose all that depends on civil discussion and decision-making. Not a single government in the world is going to help us out with this one, though. That's my hunch.

Picture autonomous communities operating on a highly individualistic but interdependent system with completely distributed decision-making and management models. No more centralized authority. Picture recyclable/renewable resources. Picture counting on a few people for your life. It doesn't matter who you are, or where you are. It's likely to happen in the next two decades -- the rain at least will fall. Weirdness. I think one can decide to drag folks onboard, or just walk away. One mind at a time.
 
 
Ender
15:47 / 21.03.04
F it guys, its over.

I for one say good riddens.
 
 
Warewullf
18:04 / 22.03.04
What are we going to do?

What we always do.

Abso-fucking-lutely nothing.

A bunch of animals will become extinct, a few million people will die and the race will just go on as normal. If a few billion people die, then a wholescale change in the attitude of the species might just take place. Might.

Short of the governments of the world getting together and deciding to outright ban the causes of the production/comsumption/waste cycle(thereby destroying capitalism), there is not one goddamn thing that will make everyone on earth change their ways before this Extinction Event happens.
 
 
Francine I
06:34 / 24.03.04
"What are we going to do?

What we always do.

Abso-fucking-lutely nothing."


I have two simple suggestions.

i. Learn how to do things. Like building shelters, finding food and water, first aid, pretty much any discipline, liberal, lingual, cultural, scientific. Especially basic agriculture. You're the vessel of knowledge.

ii. Learn how to participate in and sustain healthy communities, which themselves can practice a form of sustainable living.

And on a side note; get your dentistry done.

 
 
sdv (non-human)
16:18 / 24.03.04
Current figures that I saw this week are that the world HUMAN population will reach 9.5Billion by 2050 - it is expected that after this it will decline. The reasons for the expected decline are rather dubious but are based on good Eurpoean evidence - namely that as the average Human standard of living rises the decision to have children tends towards 'No' on the whole people prefer 'laptops' and 'dishwashers' to children. But of course the probability is that 1 human being in 2050 will uses 2 or 3 times the resources that they would use now.

What I don't know is how much of the biomass, the biosphere has to be dedicated to maintaining our current, let alone the lifestyle of 2050. But certainly some things will have to go - nothing bigger than a badger unless it is a pet or destined for a hamburger. Which is a terrible thought...
 
 
sdv (non-human)
16:27 / 24.03.04
What can we do ?

Let us start philosophically - firstly recognise that the human speicies does not exist. Darwin teaches us that species are merely assemblages of genes that interact with one another and there ever-changing environments. Species cannot control their fates for they don't exist. Secondly a population of 9 billion can only be maintained by desolating the earth so that it looks like England - nothing but human beings can then exist on this planet... only human beings in a new era of solitude. Lions, Tigers, Zebras, Bears, Elephants, Reindeer all replaced by human beings... (eventually they'd mutate, evolve into zebra-humans.... Thirdly we need to rebuild our ethics/morals to recognise that a human beings life is worth no more and sometimes less than a George the cat, the ants in the back garden, or any other living thing --- and certainly less than he biosphere.

It is critical that our philosophies and other understandings immediately cease regarding humanity as something special...
 
 
Francine I
21:48 / 25.03.04
While I'm sympathetic to the abstract and intellectual approach to this issue presented here, I think the practical points are the ones that win my heart.

(mostly in response to sdv)

i. No, we don't "control our fate" in a geneological sense -- well, at least, as far as present theory dictates. We do decide as individuals in what way and at what points we participate in this process. Just because nature doesn't want us to survive over other species does not mean we shouldn't try to stay with nature; for diversity's sake.

ii. The new social models you're talking about arise automatically from principles of sustainable living. In non-hierarchal communities modeled after sustainable living, it's very difficult to amass too much power, to over-breed, or to over-consume (the later two being directly related).

iii. Our present model of living cannot sustain us in the future. At all. For a variety of reasons ; the relief of one of which could never mitigate the others.
 
 
sdv (non-human)
19:58 / 26.03.04
(in response to Frances...)

There certainly is no reason why human beings cannot reach an accord with nature in these terms. My objection to this is not based on the possible death of human beings which seems extremely unlikely - but on ethical grounds. It is simply not right for human beings to act as a glorified extinction event.

"The new social models you're talking about arise automatically from principles of sustainable living. In non-hierarchal communities..."

Two things to question here firstly: they don't arise automatically they can only exist as a result of struggle and resistance and secondly we can assume quite safely that some version of this capitalist society - probably a post-specular, post-mass-consumptive society is sustainable - one in which consumption and production is organised around the actual costs of consumption and production. (Our current version of capitalism evolved out of the 1926 socio-economic crisis)

Frankly I've met to many eco-fascists whose idea of a solution to the human problem involves a great potential for mass extermination, (which is as an appalling idea as the mass extermination of cows in the UK because they had foot&mouth). The idea that a utopian society can be founded on a genocidal event (i.e. 1492...) is terribly mistaken.

As things stand at the moment - with the endless growth of the globalist leviathan - which could so easily mutate into a post-consumptive monster - it is essential that we do not lose our sceptisim, whether it is social, moral or scientific. If we accept that in the present landscape it is the only sane response, we may have chance of resisting sufficiently to get beyond this monster.

This it seems is a good place to pause and say aren't these actions ?
 
 
Francine I
21:50 / 26.03.04
"(in response to Frances...)

There certainly is no reason why human beings cannot reach an accord with nature in these terms. My objection to this is not based on the possible death of human beings which seems extremely unlikely - but on ethical grounds. It is simply not right for human beings to act as a glorified extinction event."


This certainly is not my contention. I believe mass extinction is a cyclical event, and therefore do not feel a need to associate general human ego with the causes and effects being discussed. I concur with your assertion that there is an ethical issue here, but I feel that mother nature will trump such concerns; ethics or no, we soon shall have little choice.

"Two things to question here firstly: they don't arise automatically they can only exist as a result of struggle and resistance and secondly we can assume quite safely that some version of this capitalist society - probably a post-specular, post-mass-consumptive society is sustainable - one in which consumption and production is organised around the actual costs of consumption and production. (Our current version of capitalism evolved out of the 1926 socio-economic crisis)"

I argue that those virtues do arise automatically from the sort of social "non-system" I'm discussing, because living "within" such systems is extraordinarily difficult and is subject to certain limitations and understandings regarding resource utilisation. While there is ample potential for abuse, the scope of said abuse is fundementally limited by the capability of the individual to inflict that abuse upon members of her own community, and the capability of the community to halt said abuse.

"Frankly I've met to many eco-fascists whose idea of a solution to the human problem involves a great potential for mass extermination, (which is as an appalling idea as the mass extermination of cows in the UK because they had foot&mouth). The idea that a utopian society can be founded on a genocidal event (i.e. 1492...) is terribly mistaken."

Genocide? Eco-facism? I'm trying to discuss something which I believe is coming down the pike and offering basic preparedness advice. It sounds like you may have misunderstood my position. I'm saying we need to develop these communities now, learn how to do these things now, and teach people now; I'm not tapping my feet, twiddling my thumbs, and grinning maniacally because the process of nature is about to push the big red button.

"As things stand at the moment - with the endless growth of the globalist leviathan - which could so easily mutate into a post-consumptive monster - it is essential that we do not lose our sceptisim, whether it is social, moral or scientific. If we accept that in the present landscape it is the only sane response, we may have chance of resisting sufficiently to get beyond this monster.

This it seems is a good place to pause and say aren't these actions ?"


And what have I suggested which offends your skepticism? In geological circles, my suggestions are hardly new or shocking. On approximate 12,500 year cycles, ice ages ebb and flow. This is shown by glacial record and core analysis. Severe ice ages ebb and flow on greater cycles. But the maths on world affairs, foreign policy, our ever-consumptive way of life, and mass climate change does not add up favourably for our six-billion strong population.
 
 
sdv (non-human)
15:03 / 28.03.04
Except that the 12,500 year cycle is a nonsensical figure - the core of the problem is that HUMAN beings are the mass extinction event. Nature and the Planet have nothing to do with it. The difference that exists between us is that whereas I am generally concerned to recognise that the mass extinction event is the result of human actions, you are concerned to understand it as something to do with nature.

This is it seems to me is the difference between us.
 
 
harmonic series
02:12 / 29.03.04
Yet, you must take into consideration that the only reason the earth has as much land exposed as it does right now, and it is and inordinate amount, is that this planet is in the throws of an ice age. The amount of land has made it possible for the excess amount of human inhabitation. As the earth changes, the humans and other land animals will be the greatest species hit, as compared to marine life, which in past mass extinctions, made up the majority of specie which was ruled as extinct. During those periods, the earth was most likely not in an ice age (what is the opposite of an ice age, normalcy?, hah!), thus providing more of a habitable arena for marine life. So, the earth has certain favorable conditions after each change. Besides, humans are part of the earth, if they add too much carbon to the air, the earth will compensate, and if the earth produces, gosh, I don't know, too much hydrogen, the life will compensate; i.e. evolve. So really, it's all very connected.
 
 
Francine I
04:37 / 29.03.04
"Except that the 12,500 year cycle is a nonsensical figure,"

Before I go on, you might recall that I never suggested people do not contribute to the process; merely that it would happen either way. Furthermore, I stress that human contribution to the global environment could and possibly will make the situation more serious.

The thrust of my argument is that we need to develop the kinds of communities that we want to have around post facto. And also that we can't expect to have everybody jumping up and down doing things which will actually improve the situation. We must do what we must do regardless. If we actually practiced sustainable living, Co2 buildup and resource depletion might not be such serious issues, while climate change would still occur. So it seems to me that community approaches to sustainable living that do not involve models that assist the propagation of abusive power would both cut down on Co2 and help us survive a serious global situation. No harm, no foul.

I would compel you to wonder if the practice of a sustainable lifestyle might bring more respect for the systems of the earth. You can't ask for everyone to agree with your philosophical bent. But you can help people to understand the value of systems which by nature demonstrate the more fundemental virtues many of us can agree on.

Here's a light weight source:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/04/980420080212.htm

"Our results suggest that such millennial-scale climate instability may be a pervasive and long-term characteristic of Earth's climate, rather than just a feature of the strong glacial-interglacial cycles of the past 800,000 years," (the funny thing about this source is that it does contend that the earth does this all by herself, but suggests that when our next big hit comes is an uneasy proposition thanks to global warming.)

"- the core of the problem is that HUMAN beings are the mass extinction event."

Humans make it worse, but it's fallacious to state that they are the core of the issue. The earth will go on either way, we need to change our way of living either way.

"Nature and the Planet have nothing to do with it. The difference that exists between us is that whereas I am generally concerned to recognise that the mass extinction event is the result of human actions, you are concerned to understand it as something to do with nature."

I disagree with the verbiage and the original conclusion: I'm not concerned to understand it in any specific way, and believe nature and the planet have everything to do with life on this planet. The information I've encountered has lead me to believe that this just sort of happens. I've also encountered information that suggests we're contributing to climate change. I believe they're both true, but I don't think the problem will simply go away if we convince people to reposition their egos before nature. That's a long path. But there are certain lifestyles which are closer to nature. Those lifestyles are also survivable and sustainable and do substantially less to exploit the earth and it's constituents. These things might be easier to convey and acheive.

"This is it seems to me is the difference between us."

I wouldn't be so quick to judge a difference between us. I'm quite sympathetic to your philosophy. But I'm also quite focused on a certain approach which I see as pragmatic; the presentation of an urgent and immediate need to adopt more survivable lifestyles.
 
 
agonyswhore
00:39 / 30.03.04
"As the earth changes, the humans and other land animals will be the greatest species hit..." (05:12 / 29.03.04)

Stating that the Earth 'changing' will cause the most substantial damage to humans and other land animals is slightly vague. When you mention the Earth 'changing' there is no specification given as to what changes you think could or will occur. With deforestation, many species are affected, the damage trickles down from land favoring animals into the depths of the ocean(1). Considering the very delicate ecosystem that exists on this planet, it is illogical to think that a single change will effect a single species (or group of species).

"...as compared to marine life, which in past mass extinctions, made up the majority of specie which was ruled as extinct."(05:12 / 29.03.04)

If you have been able to evaluate and document 90% more ocean life than scientists have, my congratulations to you. However, if you consider the observation that "Scientists estimate that less than 10% of ocean life has even been measured..." (as according to The Nature Conservatory), you can not expect the statement cited to either be logical or factual.

"Besides, humans are part of the earth, if they add too much carbon to the air, the earth will compensate, and if the earth produces, gosh, I don't know, too much hydrogen, the life will compensate; i.e. evolve..."(05:12 / 29.03.04)

This statement could imply that the human species and the Earth have a mutualistic symbiotic relationship. In high-school biology, or with any grip on the nature of a mutualistic symbiotic relationship, one would learn that that symbiosis includes benefits to both subjects. Mutualism would be ideal, in regards to a relationship between a species and that system the species existed in, but ideals do not define reality. Commensalism or even neutralism would surpass the quality of the relationship that currently exists between our species and the Earth. The status quo holds our relationship to be wholly parasitic. In this parasitic relationship, there is no room for compensation of unnatural and cruel destruction of an ecosystem that has the possibility to be much more viable for many species.

"So really, it's all very connected."(05:12 / 29.03.04)

This statement actually has some factual quality to it. Unfortunately, it does not agree with the majority of the post that it 'concluded'.

Assuming that humans are most endangered by the Earth 'changing', that they have a mutually beneficial relationship with the Earth (whereas compensation and positive evolution is caused), or that they are 'part' of the earth rather than members of a very damaged ecosystem, is a stream of perceptions that are simply not supported. History, present, and future predictions have clearly established the opposite of these assumptions. Our species has proven itself to be, in a sence, one of the Earth's largest threats. Threats are not compenstated for, they are either removed or they destroy.

----------------------------------------------------------

(1)Source: The Nature Conservatory (online, 2004) http://nature.org/initiatives/marine/
'Our Threatened Oceans'


"Demand for basics such as housing, food and income is damaging ecosystems and depleting marine resources. Around the world, unsustainable fishing practices, including the poisoning and dynamiting of coral reefs, the plowing of the ocean floor and the raiding of critical spawning areas are exacerbating the problem.

Equally damaging are the effects of pollution resulting from land-based activities such as dredging, paving, mineral extraction, deforestation and unsustainable agriculture.

On a global scale, the wide-reaching impact of climate change is also taking a toll on the oceans. Coral reefs have already experienced the devastating effects of warmer water, which causes corals to bleach and can eventually kill them. Forecasts of a more frequent El Niño cycle and a burgeoning world population bring urgency to the issue of protecting these fragile habitats and the broader marine environment."
 
 
sdv (non-human)
17:52 / 31.03.04
Francis/all

Point taken. My original concern was to point out indirectly, I admit, that the normal fears about mass extinction are always centred on and around the status of 'human beings' within the event. Consequently what needs to be recognized is that whilst it is possible, if rather unlikely that that we will become part of a future catastrophic extinction event, what is know is that we are a mass extinction event.

It is this latter event which specifically interests me here.

I do not have any particular issue with your argument for change etc - except perhaps to say that social and economic change happens as a result of struggle and resistence and nthing else. Within the constraints of being alive of course...
 
 
sdv (non-human)
18:06 / 31.03.04
Do I then believe that human existence depends on social and economic changes ? Perhaps - but a couple of questions are worth asking it seems to me - the longest surviving human societies are probably the Kung San or the Australian Aboriginals. Socieites that without external colonial interference have been stable for 10 to 20 thousand years or more. If the intetion is to survive in a stable environment we know how to do that already....

But survival at the appalling cost of reverting to a pre-industrial culture (whether it is mutulalist, communist or not) is not acceptable. Is there a utopian model which we might use as a worthwhile direction to take this society down ... not sure - none that are popular enough anyway.
 
 
Francine I
06:59 / 05.04.04
"Do I then believe that human existence depends on social and economic changes ? Perhaps - but a couple of questions are worth asking it seems to me - the longest surviving human societies are probably the Kung San or the Australian Aboriginals. Socieites that without external colonial interference have been stable for 10 to 20 thousand years or more. If the intetion is to survive in a stable environment we know how to do that already...."

Exactly. The early tribal communities you describe engage(d) in a mostly non-hierarchal form of sustainable living. They do not consume more than their environment can readily provide, and authority is generally unofficial and based on either expertise or experience (e.g, elders and tribal councils).

But as you have suggested, it's not feasible to "return" to the classic tribal model. It's necessary to model these new communities based on what we have in our environment now. That's the creative part.

I would suggest that our first obstacle is a general lack of certain community-centric skills; basic agricultural knowledge, knowledge of your terrain and it's fauna and flora, et alia. Secondly, I think we'll find an ideological obstacle ; we're used to the idea that we can have children, eat food, and travel when and how we please. While these privileges are not to be sacrificed entirely, they are massively over-employed at present. We suffer from overpopulation due to overconsumption and massive resource depletion. Simultaneously, there is malnourishment and starvation in some regions. The patterns of these sufferings are not based on the natural ebb and flow of abundance and lack -- rather an artifical flow of artificial wealth. It's my opinion that this is going to be extremely problematic in what is now the short term.

"But survival at the appalling cost of reverting to a pre-industrial culture (whether it is mutulalist, communist or not) is not acceptable."

I don't think anyone has suggested reverting to a purely pre-industrial culture; rather that we must sacrifice much of our post-industrial excess. In fact, some of the post-agricultural excess must be shed, as well -- that's the part where we get to have lots of babies if we have lots of 'wealth'.

"Is there a utopian model which we might use as a worthwhile direction to take this society down ... not sure - none that are popular enough anyway."

No. There's no utopia. There are things that work and things that do not. These things are changing all the time. Right now, the way the uber society we're discussing handles it's business works fine for the Western world. Not quite so well for lots of others. Soon, due to a great many factors, this situation will become unsustainable for a great many of us. We can try and change this situation, or we can cling to it until we find "the other perfect model". Fortunately, the things one would do to enact and adopt such change are possible on a grass roots level, and doing these things will serve the purpose of preparing you to survive the inevitable at the same time. You can experiment with it yourself, and find a flavour of sustainable living that works for you. You don't have to be exploited, and you don't have to exploit others.

Unfortunately, lots of people think apathy is cool.

Of course, one could disagree with my assessment that the leaders of powerful governments are unlikely to make changes that may decrease the standard of living for their nations. And it's true -- they might. Some of them. Some changes; it's not the end of the world we're talking about here -- just a rough time. Furthermore, assuming positive changes are enacted, problems will again emerge if we choose to continue employing top-down power structures in the management of basic affairs such as security and the management of resources. It seems to me that top-down power structures work best on a temporal basis, such as those formed based on expertise in order to manage a particular situation.

The classic militia is a good and somewhat modern example; there is generally no long-established rank (which holds true in day-to-day life for the community) or distribution of resource. When there's an issue, there's a de facto structure that determines who's in charge, because it's necessary for economy of action and communication. When the issue has "passed", such communities should not retain a well-armed, top-down controlled standing army. It's not efficient. Conquest is not efficient, and the conquest or the prevention thereof are the primary reasons for a standing army. In this case our society in particular there's little question who the conqueror is. It is we. But I don't mean that in a political sense, I mean it in an a sort of 'uber-cultural' sense. Cultures which exhibit certain traits in common under a certain umbrella of mass consumption and expansion. Hierarchal systems were necessary to organize and execute mass consumption and mass expansion through widespread agriculture (and plunder).

Usually, the best way to deal with such a system, assuming you don't wish to live that way, is simply to walk away. Of course, many are fond of these systems. It's not necessary that they fade into obscurity. Only that they cease the management of the basic functions of survival. In fact, you may personally live under or rule such a system; it's just that we can't all do it, all the time. Right now, the percentage of the world population not particating in this cycle of exploitation at some point is far less than 1% -- it's pretty much down to the Aboriginies.

Of course, it's not necessarily today or tommorow that things will become clearly and totally unsustainable. We could cling heroically to this beast for a very long time; things could slip from our grasp in an instant. But how comfortable do you suppose most people are with the idea that people die elsewhere every day so that they may have inefficient motor vehicles, and so that their (sometimes numerous) children can have these motor vehicles? That's the sliding scale we're working with. To grossly oversimplify (and perhaps excessively restate) the issue -- it's pretty much the suffering and exploitation of others that grants your "right" to own and drive a Hummer. It's already to this point. And the weather's just now starting to change.

I'd like to add that this particular path of human survival will mitigate some of the extinction and that mass extinction is, in itself, not abnormal or avoidable.
 
 
Triplets
22:22 / 05.04.04
Well, here comes tomorrow
 
 
sdv (non-human)
17:21 / 08.04.04
An interesting update that I heard today - last year another 6000 sq miles of Amazon rain forest was chopped down for farmland in Brasil. (official Brasiliam State figures). With the intention of increasing beef production...
 
 
nefar
16:00 / 14.04.04
We are not going to die.

Speaking now, of humanity as a species and of the other species that we know something about. I think there are some things that have to be taken into account here, and I think that there’s some good in emphasising continutity instead of disruption:

1. Human inequality. Someone like Bill Gates could, concievably buy a tropical country, eject all the people out of 75% of it or so, and use it as his private game reserve and garden. Since this could possibly happen, it probably will, so, while people would be starving and killing each other next door, at the same time Bill could sit in his private summer-palace, and watch the zebras munch away safely on his lawn. There is little risk that all of the world would turn into England, the rich people, (prince Charles would be another good example of this kind of person) wouldn’t allow it, but would instead keep big chunks of unspoilt nature out of reach of the really poor who would want the land for farming etc. Actually, this is already the present situation. If I were to become stinking rich, I’d spend my time collecting biotopes, a valley in Borneo, a piece of US desert, Russian taiga and so on, they are really cheap and it would be much more rewarding than collecting say antique furniture or stamps.


2. Global heating: even if half of the species of the world disappeared, the species that we humans care about would probably still be around but in reduced numbers. I’m talking about big predators, stuff we can eat and pretty things, like flowers. So there would probably be enough people around to protect those species, even going so far as to create artificial habitats for them in underground bunkers, if the need would arise. A number of major ecosystems will probably disappear, (the barrier reef for example) but on the whole my guess is that the species that will become extinct are the ones that we don’t know that they exist yet, and the ones that few people or people with little power care about. So were going to kill loads and loads of living beings that we don’t care about, but the beings that we like will remain. Again, this isn’t the future, were already there.

3. We probably wouldn’t be included in a mass extinction of humans either. If you read this you have access to internet, so you are probably quite rich, on the global average. Massive environmental destruction, global changes of temperature liberal doses of weird poisons spread around here and there would probably not kill the average internet user. It will kill poor people who won't be able to buy food that has been grown in closed off greenhouses (monitored for pollution) and who cant afford medical care. Our problem will probably be somewhat reduced life expectancy, perhaps we’ll have to settle for seventy years instead of 90, or for 110 instead of 150, who knows. Humans are tough, many of those who grew up in the London smog of the 1920’s and 30’s are still around today, and compared to that level of pollution, what the average westerner has to breath in today is trivial.

4. Even if the air would become too poisonous to breath in, say 200 days a year, that wouldn’t change to much, we’d just have to take our oxygen tubes on the way to work, and put protective plastics on, houses could be covered in plastics and have ventilation systems that would maintain an indoor preassure, so that not too much pollution would slip in. Nice recreational sites could be simulated in computers. Im talking about a bladerunner style future for us, a mad max future for the really poor, and utopia, extended lifespans and happiness ever after for the really rich. No big difference from today there either.

Finally, we are probably not going to get killed by the dangers that we can identify anyway. If we are going to get it, collectively, it will probably be from some kind of cause that we don't know anything about, and we won't know what hit us. So, in this regard there is no difference between ourselves and our pre-science ancestors. Theres no reason for us to have sleepless nights, compared to say, someone living in Europe during the Great Plague.

This of course is not a reason to sit around with your thumbs up your ass. Problem is, in my opinion, that many of those who care about the environment seem to be leftist secterists, and that their analyses of the situation are biased for that reason. ("Oh no! were all going to die and its Big Brothers fault!")
 
 
sdv (non-human)
17:42 / 15.04.04
An interesting rant Nefar and then you have to spoil it by mistakenly suggesting that environmentalists are mostly 'leftist sectarists'... Of course in whatever country you are in that may be true - but from personal historical exposure this is not the case in either the UK or USA or Germany... (actually in the UK and USA) there is along history of some extreme rightwing thinking floating around on the edges of environmentalism...
 
 
nefar
11:41 / 10.05.04
Sorry I'm late, SDV:
Actually, I said "many of those seem to be" but you are right that there are many right wing extremist environmentalists, and also that they don't have much influence in scandinavia, where I'm writing from. When I'm talking about left-wing sectarianism I don't mean that environmentalist "are" that, that but rather that there is some kind of thought complex that much of environmentalist thinking proceeds from, and that this thought complex is sectarian in its nature. A kind of mental trap that breeds despair, "the oh no were all going to die" thing, (I've been there myself many times and I'm not trying to be sarcastic about it) and that many ideologues and other people in the environmentalist movements love to put into our heads. The problem with it, in my opinion, is that there are a few who take action on behalf of the environment due to this kind of rhetoric, but most people either just get sad and try to forget about it, or just don't care because its not in their mindset to accept this kind of argument in the first place. The parallell between environmentalism and sectarianism is taken from a book by Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky, _Risk and culture_. And what they say of environmentalist sectarianism is something like this: Nature takes the place of God, and if we don't behave, repent, wake up and change our lifestyles in accordance with certain ascetic rules, then Nature will strike back and kill us all and it will happen and soon too!
 
  
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