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Robotics and the sociology of the future

 
 
Grand Panjandrum of the Pointless
20:14 / 14.03.04
Time for a spot of armchair futurology. I'm not sure whether this belongs in the Head shop or here, but have decided on the Laboratory since it involves robots.

It seems feasible that simple robots designed to perform menial household tasks and non-complex low paid jobs are likely to become common in our lifetimes.
What are the social consequences of a robot workforce? Various things occur:

1. That such a scenario might trigger a rise in socialism in much the same way that the Industrial Revolution did- Chartism, Luddites et.c. Would it really liberate people from meaningless alienating jobs, or would it concentrate more wealth in the hands of the rich and powerful while expanding the underclass? What would happen to unskilled labourers without the aptitude for higher-level jobs?

2.The possibility of a cheap robot workforce filling up McJobs could be very attractive to right-wing politicians, because it would allow them to limit immigration without impacting the labour market.

3.Might it affect globalization by allowing companies to manufacture goods cheaply without resorting to low paid work-forces in developing countries. Again, would this encourage development, or further polarise the division between rich and poor countries?

Insights from perspectives both sociological and technological would be interesting. Also personal experience of living with robots, if anyone has it. Does anybody here own an Aibo or a Trilobite? How do they affect your lives?
 
 
Grey Area
08:19 / 15.03.04
What would happen to unskilled labourers without the aptitude for higher-level jobs?

What would happen is an evolution of the role they currently play: Gophers for the machines. If we use the example of McDonalds you alluded to, this has already happened. The workers you see bustling about are essentially limited to being either the human interface for the customers or the providers of raw material to the machines that actually make the 'food'.

What we will probably see is an improvement in the way the machines communicate with their human colleagues, say through voice synthesis rather than beeps and whistles (like the french-fryer in McD's with its horrific, piercing beep). Coupled with this one can expect enhanced abilities of the already existing devices. The burger line at McDonalds will assemble, spice and wrap the items, leaving the human interface to hand them to the customer. Or the floor-buffer will roll around on it's own and merely require the janitor to restock it's reservoirs of cleaning solution.

Would it really liberate people from meaningless alienating jobs

I'm not too sure that the Industrial Revolution liberated us from meaningless, alienating jobs, at least not in the long-run. Look at the level of job dissatisfaction encountered today. Many people from all walks of life complain that their jobs are meaningless, unfulfilling and alienate them from friends and family. A robotic revolution would probably lead to further alienation as people come to interact more and more with machines rather than human beings in their workplace.
 
 
Tamayyurt
12:26 / 15.03.04
Yeah, actually the Industrial Revolution created the alienation because it distanced the workers from the products they were creating. It wasn't there's so they had no attachment or sense of pride in it. We actually became machines.

And I agree with Grey Area unskilled workers would probably just go into the service industry (human interface) while the machines do all the creating.

The possibility of a cheap robot workforce filling up McJobs could be very attractive to right-wing politicians, because it would allow them to limit immigration without impacting the labour market.

This bit seems right on the money, though. I can so see this happening.

Oh and, this thread needs to be in the Head Shop (but I'm not moderator so...)
 
 
Grand Panjandrum of the Pointless
21:33 / 15.03.04
Grey Area+ Impulsiveclad,I think you're right that the social grouping that Steve Aylett charmingly calls 'the socket faced masses' can confidently look forward to a future as customer service reps and robot repair-people. Gophers for machines is exactly it.

Also large scale robot-induced unemployment is unlikely bcs a large underclass of unemployed types kicked out of their jobs by robots won't be a good thing for the rich and powerful bcs it will mean the loss of an important market. So people will probably be given monkey work with rubbish pay and then manipulated into blowing it all on rubbish+ presumably saddling themselves with more debt into the bargain. Same old story then.
At least until They figure out a way to make robots consume.

BTW Grey Area- I didn't say that the Industrial Revolution liberated people from meaningless alienating jobs- the sentence you quote is about the future, which is why it's in a future tense. :-) (that was an attempted emoticon, but unfortunately my web-fu is shit, so it will probably fail)
I actually believe (with impulsiveclad above, and a lot of other people) that the reverse is true.
 
 
Mirror
21:18 / 16.03.04
I'm not too sure that the Industrial Revolution liberated us from meaningless, alienating jobs, at least not in the long-run. Look at the level of job dissatisfaction encountered today. Many people from all walks of life complain that their jobs are meaningless, unfulfilling and alienate them from friends and family. A robotic revolution would probably lead to further alienation as people come to interact more and more with machines rather than human beings in their workplace.

<rant>

This, to me, is self-indulgent crap that romanticizes life in a pre-industrial world. Having traveled a fair bit in the third world, I've seen firsthand what pre-industrial society looks like, and I have to agree that these people aren't alienated - they're too desperate about securing their families' survival to feel unfulfilled.

The life of a peasant farmer is pretty much shit. I remember stopping to buy potatoes from a guy on the side of the road in Kenya whose fingers had 1/4 inch deep cracks in them from digging in the dirt, his eyes were jaundiced and bloodshot from the malaria, and his single remaining tooth was obviously painfully abcessed. And this fellow was in his thirties, at most. That's what pre-industrial society looks like, on average.

So fuck alienation and meaningless work - a roboticized society will only lead to an improvement of people's overall standard of living. It's quite possible to have a rather comfortable life in modern society even on a minimal wage if you're not pissing away your earnings on drugs, cable TV and frozen dinners. "Expanding the underclass" my ass. The underclass in modern western society still carry fucking cell phones.

Automation will bring about a better world for human beings, because that's why people invent automation in the first place - to do things better and faster and with less human effort. I'm bloody glad that I don't have to go down to the local stream to wash my clothes on a rock as my mother did when she was a child in rural Italy - I'm serious, I don't feel the tiniest bit alienated from my clothing because I toss them into the washing machine in the basement and press go.

Look at this robot that can autonomously build a house. Talk about an invention that has real potential to improve the standard of living of the billions of people in the world who don't have adequate housing. I've built houses with Habitat for Humanity, and I'm damn certain that not a single one of the people who are on the waiting list for a house would give a shit about the social impact of robotics if it meant they could have a home.

There's a lot of work to be done in this world, and it's not getting done right now because it costs too much. If robots can bring that cost down, I say the sooner the better.

</rant>
 
 
misterpc
06:19 / 17.03.04
I agree with everybody! But that's because this fence is so comfortable...

Mirror, you're absolutely right. Subsistence-level existence (or even minimum economic interaction, like your man with the potatoes) isn't much fun. Having said that, not all peasants live in hell - the experience of the poorest of the poor is often exacerbated by the modern world. The guy selling potatoes by the side of the road is at the side of a road - rather than at a local market, because the local market is now in a town far away that can only be reached by motor transport (rather than by foot), and the local shops all carry ready-made packet potato at a price he can't afford, for instance.

But it's also undeniable that there is also a large amount of alienation in the modern world. This seems to me to be the result of humans not being geared to the modern world - that the technology has advanced more quickly than our societies can adapt to it. The result is that we have basically the same survivalist, subsistence drives - but when all our needs are being met, that leaves us with an immense feeling of emptiness, because the sense of purpose drains away.

This starts to look like another thread in Headshop to me....
 
 
sarcastodon
22:13 / 29.03.04
Mirror: I agree with you, but perhaps not so vehemently. Certainly, many people complain that their jobs are meaningless, unfulfilling and alienate them from friends and family. However, the advantage of the industrial revolution is that they now have the extra time to sit around bitching about how meaningless, unfulfilling and alienating their jobs are. Let's be honest, there are only so many "perfect" jobs available - and here I'm speaking about those jobs that really transcend "jobness", where one lives to work, as opposed to working to live - and the rest of us have to do what it takes to get by. Until we get to that utopian Roddenberry future where noone has to work to support themselves, there will always be people complaining about having to work.

Grey Area: Very insightful! As much as I would like to think that the creation of simple robots would allow the blue-collar laborers to move upwards in society, the sad truth is that it will probably widen the gap. I have two thoughts that support this. First, the advent of automation has not resulted in more work-related knowledge for the working class, but less. Most on-the-job training now doesn't include any background or information on how to actually make the product, but a quick review on which buttons to push in which situations. This is the alienation that socialists are concerned with. Second, there is only so much room at the top. The reason there are so many blue-collar workers isn't necessarily because there is such a large demand for physical labor, but because there is a limited supply of upper-class jobs. If it were otherwise - if the demand for blue-collar work was the cause of so many blue-collar laborers - then there wouldn't be unemployment, because the levels would even out. Workers would begin as blue collar, then move up the ladder. As they moved up the socio-economic ladder, this would result in an increase in the number of middle-class citizens, which would proportionately increase the demands for lower-class laborers. Unfortunately, the problem we have is that there is only so much room at the top of the pyramid, and that dictates how much room there is at the bottom.

I'm new here, so I have no idea where this post belongs.
 
 
Grey Area
10:45 / 30.03.04
Mirror, before you lash out in such a vehement manner and condemn my views as 'self indulgent crap', you might take the effort to inquire more about the background to my statement. Fact is, the robotic revolution is currently taking place in the indistrial nations, the first world countries. It is to these countries that my views should be applied.

I take your post to mean that you think robots will lead the third world into a shiny new future where everyone's fed and housed to a standard equal to one the first world enjoys. Allow me to counter this with an example: In the Lakshadweep Islands (Indian Ocean), the Indian government tried to buld an eco-resort for divers that would be powered by solar panels and wind power. Makes sense on paper, seeing as that's the two resources this island has in abundance. However, within a year of the resort opening, the local technicians couldn't figure out how to service the wind turbines and the batteries for the accumulators. THe whols system collapsed, and by the time I arrived for a vacation one of the wind turbines had collapsed and the house containing the enormous batteries was overgrown. The locals had no idea how to use this modern technology. What they did have was two ancient British diesel engines that were now being used as generators.

Anyone who says that modern technology is going to bring about a humanitarian revolution must be prepared to answer the following questions:
1. How will the developing nations acquire this extremely expansive technology in the first place?
2. How will the nations that now have legions of shiny robots train and pay for an army of specialists to maintain the machines?
3. How can a developing nation utilise robot workers if they don't even have the infrastructure in place to power the 20-Watt bulb in the shack by the road?

I lived in Ghana for a while. We were in the deepest back country, and it took most of a day on dirt roads to get to the nearest town with anything resembling decent social infrastructure. And with this I mean they had electricity for more than six hours a day and running, semi-potable water to about half the houses. And you're trying to tell me this place would be able to utilise a house building robot? Please...

There are sustainable technology incentives out there. Friends of mine work for one. I recommend you go and take a look at some of them (or maybe you already have, given that you've travelled in the third world) and see the difficulties these projects encounter with such mundane engineering feats as sinking a hand-pump well before you blast my views as 'self indulgent crap'.
 
 
Mirror
17:51 / 30.03.04
1. How will the developing nations acquire this extremely expansive technology in the first place?
2. How will the nations that now have legions of shiny robots train and pay for an army of specialists to maintain the machines?
3. How can a developing nation utilise robot workers if they don't even have the infrastructure in place to power the 20-Watt bulb in the shack by the road?


The rate of development of infrastructure in the third world is pretty staggering, in my experience. I'm not suggesting that robiticization will solve problems in the developing world this week, but I believe it has the potential to make significant impact in my lifetime and my children's lifetimes. In 300 years the "developing world" will be so far ahead of where western society is now that we wouldn't be able to recognize it. Suggesting that people in developing countries are unable to make the same progress as those in the western society, especially when so much information is becoming globally available, strikes me as parochial in the extreme.

When I was staying at a monastery in India, the brothers there were teaching children from the local village (which didn't have running water or public sanitation) to use computers. The cab drivers that would take me to and from the market had cell phones. Technology spreads with extraordinary rapidity. Hell, I manage a website for a guy in Moshi, Tanzania and he communicates with me by email. And he's a one-man tour operator who makes his living humping other people's luggage up Kilimanjaro. These are people whose lives are being improved by technology - the guy in Tanzania can now reach potential clients all over the world with the only investment necessary being time and a little bit of money to use the local internet cafe.

Your example of the failed resort is a classic example of mismanagement, not a counterexample to the utility of technology. Those who conceived the resort failed to provide sufficient technical support and training. It was not that the technology was bad, or that the people who were supposed to operate it were stupid - it was that they were not given the necessary training to be able to fulfill their tasks.

With respect to the idea of automation creating alienation in western societies, I have to say I still regard it as self-indulgent crap. Moreover, the whole concept of feeling alienated is itself a bit moronic - people in western society have so much freedom to do what they please that if they'd turn off the bloody TV and start connecting with people they might have happier lives. I think that it was Dennis Miller who had a nice little skit where he was a therapist whose only advice to people was "Shut the fuck up!" The worst part about alienation in modern society is that in some ways, I think that being alienated has become a fad, like the aggressive stupidity that we suffer so much from in the U.S. Bush was able to garner a significant number of votes in the last election by playing up his stupidity!!! People want to feel alienated so that they can commiserate with all the other alienated idiots.

Most on-the-job training now doesn't include any background or information on how to actually make the product, but a quick review on which buttons to push in which situations.

Most products made today are so complex, or made in such a large volume, that the only way to produce them is with the abstraction of the machine interface. People don't have the intimate knowledge of their products because it's simply not possible for a single person to assimilate all of that information, and because we have abstractions that reduce the need for detailed knowledge it's arguable that that knowlege is not particularly useful to a person using the abstraction anyway. Hell, I write Java code for a living, but don't know a thing about the detailed implementation of the JVM, and don't really want or need to.

The guy selling potatoes by the side of the road is at the side of a road - rather than at a local market, because the local market is now in a town far away that can only be reached by motor transport (rather than by foot), and the local shops all carry ready-made packet potato at a price he can't afford, for instance.

What utter nonsense. The guy selling potatoes by the side of the road was a farmer working his field. There was a fellow with a donkey cart who would come by and pick up the produce from the various farms to sell in the village a mile down the road. It isn't all globalization's fault, you know - being a peasant has always fundamentally sucked.
 
 
sarcastodon
19:14 / 30.03.04
I think that it was Dennis Miller who had a nice little skit where he was a therapist whose only advice to people was "Shut the fuck up!"

Close. That was actually Denis Leary.

Mirror: I agree in part with you - the complexity of many of today's products does mean that in many cases, one person is simply not able to contain the entire process. However, I think that applies less to our blue-collar workers. To use the McDonald's worker as an example - How many of those people actually know what goes into a shake besides McDonald's shake mix that comes out of the machine? Are the ingredients involved in and the process required to make a milk-shake too complex for them to understand? Western society emphasizes knowing just enough to get by, especially in the working class.

I'm a code-writer too, so I understand your analogy, but I don't consider you or I to be at the bottom level of our workforce.
 
 
Grey Area
20:23 / 30.03.04
When I was staying at a monastery in India, the brothers there were teaching children from the local village [...] to use computers. The cab drivers that would take me to and from the market had cell phones. [...] Hell, I manage a website for a guy in Moshi, Tanzania and he communicates with me by email. And he's a one-man tour operator who makes his living humping other people's luggage up Kilimanjaro. These are people whose lives are being improved by technology - the guy in Tanzania can now reach potential clients all over the world with the only investment necessary being time and a little bit of money to use the local internet cafe.

OK, granted, this type of technology exchange is rapid. But what is the primary motivating factor? I'm going to be a cynic and say that apart from the monks teaching the kids to use computers the main motivation is profit. The introduction of technology into the third world is driven by a companies who are providing technology that people want and are willing to pay for. Yes, on the whole, technology like mobile phones and internet access will lead to better things, but surely the time and money invested in this would be better spent in getting sanitation and running water to the kids? Or creating a more lasting and permanent infrastructure? It's great that the taxi driver has a mobile phone...but what happens when he runs out of road?

(I would suggest that we start a new thread to debate third world technology transfer and implementation, as this is going off-topic)

Moreover, the whole concept of feeling alienated is itself a bit moronic - people in western society have so much freedom to do what they please that if they'd turn off the bloody TV and start connecting with people they might have happier lives.

I don't have a television, nor do a fair number of people I know. However we all feel that out work is sucking in more and more time. Time that we used to have to spend on either improving ourselves as people or helping improve the environment we live in. It's easy to belittle the office worker who stays on longer and works harder in order to not be the first name to come to mind when the downsizing hits.

I would invite you consider that society has reached a point where a human being has to prove that he is valuable and needed in the workplace in order to keep his job, rather than be replaced by an improved automated switchboard/burger grill/welding machine. The stress of such a situation can lead to a feeling of alienation, because you don't believe that anyone around you is willing to listen or help, due to the fact that they're all in the same position as you are. While there is a world of difference between the blue collar worker on the assembly line (who is more likely to be affected by the automation of industry) and the white collar workers in design, finance and academica, to name just three areas, the alienation I described above can be applied to all levels of employment.
 
 
grant
20:32 / 30.03.04
To use the McDonald's worker as an example - How many of those people actually know what goes into a shake besides McDonald's shake mix that comes out of the machine? Are the ingredients involved in and the process required to make a milk-shake too complex for them to understand?

Actually, do you know what goes into a McDonald's milkshake?

I ask this because in a stagecraft class I was in we once had a long conversation about one of the ingredients that was also a big part in the special effects for the remake of The Blob. I can't remember the chemical name, but I think it was related to ethyl alginate, which F/X guys use to make molds or casts of body parts.

Most commercial ice cream is made with carrageenan, a seaweed extract. I don't need to know how to boil down the seaweed in order to run a McDonald's shake machine.
 
 
sine
22:16 / 30.03.04
A rant:

I don't believe in the robo-revolution. Not for a good long while yet anyway.

Remember the 1980's? I do. Remember the Jetson's future we had projected for us, a world of superconducting magnetic levitation trains? Sure you do. Now remember the terror that gripped the automobile sector and the other manufacturing industries when the first commercial fabrication robots were introduced? Human labour rendered irrelevant at a single stroke.

Then the vampires that run our corporations figured out that robots are expensive and require extensive maintenance. Panic was mounting. Luckily, a miraculous new manufacturing device was hit upon: it learned quickly, was adaptable, operated on a handful of rice or corn a day, and even made copies of itself, so if one lost its manipulator digits making dynamite or Nike shoes it could be simply and easily discarded and replaced. Yes, the discovery of the PEDRO revolutionized the economy, insuring my ongoing access to cheap coffee, cheap shoes, cheap cars, and soon, cheap organs.

In short: third world labourers are the new robots.

The talk I hear about the robo-revolution reminds me of talk about reducing population stress through space colonization. We couldn't cram ourselves into rockets fast enough to reduce the pressure of our breeding on this mudball.

For robots to ever become a big enough part of manufacturing to effect a noticeable change in this trend, they'll have to do something people can't. And by then, we'll have other problems with them.

In Japan, the bank machines keep the same hours as the tellers. Can't use one after five pm. F**king robot unions.
 
 
Mirror
23:45 / 30.03.04
It's easy to belittle the office worker who stays on longer and works harder in order to not be the first name to come to mind when the downsizing hits.

I would invite you consider that society has reached a point where a human being has to prove that he is valuable and needed in the workplace in order to keep his job, rather than be replaced by an improved automated switchboard/burger grill/welding machine. The stress of such a situation can lead to a feeling of alienation, because you don't believe that anyone around you is willing to listen or help, due to the fact that they're all in the same position as you are.


The issues you are addressing here, downsizing and the automation of previously manual tasks, seem to me to be not so much related to people having problems with technological advancement specifically but instead with change in general.

Throughout the history of industrialization, the introduction of new technology has always led to two things - disruption of workers in outmoded jobs, and the creation of large numbers of new jobs that need to be filled. Simply because the economy has been shrinking for the past couple of two years does not mean that it will continue to do so indefinitely. Certainly, life is difficult for those who are not well equipped to deal with change, and being perpetually prepared for change is becoming ever more vital as technological change becomes more rapid.

It strikes me as quite a pessimistic view to suggest that people are in general so conservative and inflexible as to be unable to cope with the rate of change in modern society.

I would suggest that, for the continued development of society, it is necessary that people be periodically displaced from their occupations. And I think that it's a good thing that people have to prove their worth in the workplace or lose their jobs - you increase efficiency by eliminating redundant jobs, and that increase in efficiency benefits the society as a whole. The same thing goes for downsizing - it's undeniably tough for those who suffer the job loss, but when companies become more efficient there is greater potential for growth. I might also point out that this is true at all levels in the natural world - a blighted plant can recover if the diseased leaves are cut away, and the predators that cull the weak animals from the herd also ensure that the strongest members are the ones to reproduce.
 
 
sdv (non-human)
12:13 / 01.04.04
Mirror - you are such a neo-liberal/conservative...
 
 
sdv (non-human)
12:19 / 01.04.04
Interesting that not a single one of you mentioned Haraway and her Cyborgs, cyber-feminism. There has been no expansion of human work in manufactuting industries in the G8 since 1956. The turning point for human work in Office and administration work was 1975/8 within the G8 countries. The purpose of a manufacturing robot or indeed the computer I am typing this on is well known - the eradication of human cost, there really is no other purpose. If there was they would be designed very differently.
 
 
Mirror
21:20 / 01.04.04
An ad-hominem attack! How charming. And incorrect.

SDV, you might do better if you were to explain exactly how my ideas are wrong. Convince me.
 
 
Grey Area
08:20 / 02.04.04
The issues you are addressing here, downsizing and the automation of previously manual tasks, seem to me to be not so much related to people having problems with technological advancement specifically but instead with change in general.

I see your point, but would argue that most of the change we have seen taking place in the working environment of the late 20th/early 21st century has been brought about through technological advances. Especially the field of communication technology, where advances mean that now we are never out of telephone range of our employer and able (in some cases required) to respond to mail at the click of a button.

Consider also the speed with which these changes were brought about. Ten years ago the internet, e-mail, mobile phones, fax machines and pda's were either still science fiction or in their infancy. Now they're everywhere. Previous technological advances were slower in their assimilation into everyday life, and therefore allowed people to adjust their lifestyles at a rate that percluded the mass-alienation we see today.

Throughout the history of industrialization, the introduction of new technology has always led to two things - disruption of workers in outmoded jobs, and the creation of large numbers of new jobs that need to be filled

Not so in the modern world. The problem with the modern technology that looks set to replace the worker is that it's production and maintenance is either also automated to a high degree or requires a higher level of education/specialisation that only a few individuals possess. Whereas with past technological advances, say the steam engine, more jobs would have been created (mining coal, hand-made construction, etc) the modern technology is manufactured in streamlined production facilities that require less and less human input, or use human input as an alternative form of robotisation, as Sine pointed out.

It strikes me as quite a pessimistic view to suggest that people are in general so conservative and inflexible as to be unable to cope with the rate of change in modern society.

When you look at studies made of the psychology of the masses, the general consensus is that people are inherently conservative. The younger generation of course seems to be proving this point wrong. The speed with which items such as mobile phones and home computers have been taken up could be used to prove that consumers are less conservative than previously thought. But I would argue that these things have become essential to modern life and are therefore puchased as a means of keeping up-to-date.

I would suggest that, for the continued development of society, it is necessary that people be periodically displaced from their occupations. And I think that it's a good thing that people have to prove their worth in the workplace or lose their jobs - you increase efficiency by eliminating redundant jobs, and that increase in efficiency benefits the society as a whole.

But what do the people who have been displaced from their jobs do? The point I am trying to make is that the continued technological change results in a progressive decrease in the number of jobs available to the workforce, both blue- and white-collar. Yes, OK, the growth of companies through more efficient operation could lead to better developments in shorter time. But at the same time we now have a displaced workforce who lack the capital to partake of this shiny new future and lack the training to relocate to another area of work.
 
 
Mirror
14:15 / 02.04.04
But what do the people who have been displaced from their jobs do? The point I am trying to make is that the continued technological change results in a progressive decrease in the number of jobs available to the workforce, both blue- and white-collar. Yes, OK, the growth of companies through more efficient operation could lead to better developments in shorter time. But at the same time we now have a displaced workforce who lack the capital to partake of this shiny new future and lack the training to relocate to another area of work.

This is undeniably a problem that needs to be addressed at the societal level, and that I believe can be addressed primarily by increasing the standard of education. There is a virtually infinite amount of work that needs to be done, research that needs to be performed, etc. to enable human beings to reach a stable equilibrium with our environment. Of course, pursuing this sort of development requires a high level of education. I believe that it is soon going to be necessary to expand public education so that the standard level of knowledge of a student graduating from a public school is equivalent to a college degree. By delaying young people from entering the work force for an additional 3 or 4 years, you dramatically cut the pool of available workers, which takes up the slack left by automation. Your workforce as a whole is then better equipped to address the complex problems of modern industry.

From here on my comments apply largely to the U.S. as I don't have the background to discuss how these issues will affect Europe.

As far as having a displaced workforce goes, at least in the U.S. the unemployment rate is still hovering around 6%, although there are claims that the level of underemployment is somewhat higher. In the short term, there are a number of factors that will start to come into play in the next few years that will create demand for new jobs. First, people today are living longer than ever before, and in the next 5 years or so the U.S. will be facing the mass retirement of the baby boom generation. These retirees will continue to create a demand for goods and services that will be a strong source of jobs. Also, as fuel prices continue to rise demand for new technology to increase energy efficiency and develop alternative energy sources is heating up. Urban redevelopment is another sector that is becoming important as cities adapt to serve modern businesses.
 
 
Spaniel
11:19 / 03.04.04
The purpose of a manufacturing robot or indeed the computer I am typing this on is well known - the eradication of human cost, there really is no other purpose.

Sorry, but you're verging on conspiracy theory here. As I understand it the original computers were designed to crack codes. The issue wasn't human cost, it was expediency: it would have taken humans fucking years.

I could go on, but I really can't to be bothered.
 
 
Grey Area
21:20 / 03.04.04
Mirror, while your theory about the retiring baby boomers works on paper, isn't it in direct conflict with your idea of delaying the graduation of future workers for 3-4 years? If implemented, this would create a gap in the available workforce that would require an increase in automation. Once the new wave of highly educated workers hits the market, they'll find a machine has already taken the place they were intended to fill.

Also, an implementation of your expanded education scheme would put immense strain on already over-stretched government budgets. Who's going to fund the change? The companies? Are we going to see company-run academies, training indentured teenagers to be workers specific to the needs of the company? This future vision has been suggested, and is not palatable at all...

Your plan requires a shift in the attitude towards jobs requiring a higher degree of education, more specifically to the remuneration expected by people for filling such a post. Currently, the expectation is that due to one owning a degree (or even two) one's worth rises. Therefore employment costs rise. Granted, eventually a change would come about, but in the mean-time we're faced with a disgruntled workforce taking jobs for which they're overqualified and underpaid, which could (and probably would) lead to the alienation and mental distress that has been the focus of this debate.

On aging populations: Currently in Europe, many countries are facing a greying population. There are simply not enough babies being born. While this may lead to a scenario where your prediction regarding the replacement of baby boomers comes in, the reality seems to be that companies choose to replace retiring workers with machines or leave their posts unfilled in order to streamline efficiency.

At the core of this debate there is the conflict between human and corporate interest. Acting out of human interest would mean that companies jump over their own shadow and put employment of a person before the balance sheet. Unfortunately the only way this seems to have come about is in relocations to countries where human labour is cheaper. The corporate interest has, on the surface at least, no vested interest in the mental well-being of its employees...as long as they're producing and bringing about profit then all's well. Given that a drop in morale can bring about a drop in productivity, it's no surprise that companies tend towards automation.
 
 
Mirror
18:06 / 04.04.04
Once the new wave of highly educated workers hits the market, they'll find a machine has already taken the place they were intended to fill.

This is quite a bit of a stretch given the state of technology today. We do not as yet have robotic researchers, robotic writers, robotic artists, or robotic businessmen. The development of such entities is still, from the perspective of AI, quite a long ways off in the future. I agree completely that unskilled and repetetive human labor is quickly going the way of the dodo - and I for one think that this is a wonderful thing, so long as we can adequately educate people for the more productive, skilled positions.

The 12 year education system was developed at a time when the amount of knowledge gained under that system was sufficient to be a professional. With the advancement of human knowlege and society, 12 years simply isn't enough to gather the necessary information to be a professional, particularly in a school system where 30 kids to a classroom is the norm, and there's a cultural movement that glorifies stupidity.

Also, an implementation of your expanded education scheme would put immense strain on already over-stretched government budgets. Who's going to fund the change? The companies? Are we going to see company-run academies, training indentured teenagers to be workers specific to the needs of the company? This future vision has been suggested, and is not palatable at all...

I don't know... I think that the 87 billion dollars we're currently spending on murdering people in Iraq could probably cover a lot of it. But that's just me.

The corporate interest has, on the surface at least, no vested interest in the mental well-being of its employees...as long as they're producing and bringing about profit then all's well. Given that a drop in morale can bring about a drop in productivity, it's no surprise that companies tend towards automation.

Has nobody else here ever worked for a company that was interested in the well-being of their employees? The most successful companies I know of are the ones where the employees are best taken care of. Now, I'm not talking about the megacorps that rely upon government handouts and paid-for legislation for their success - I'm talking about the successful, private, small to medium sized companies that still make up the bulk of the economy. The relationship of large corporations to government is a topic for a whole other thread altogether.
 
 
Lurid Archive
12:39 / 05.04.04
As I often say, you have to separate out the possibilities of technology and the ideologically motivated uses to which it is put. So it is important, in my mind, that we don't see the mechanisation of labour and the effects of worker disenfranchisement as inevitable products of robot technology.

There are lots of ways in which to use tools, is all I'm saying. And mechanisation could have, and could still, be used to create a far fairer society in which drudgery is minimised. It isn't and there are a lot of myths about it.

For instance, this sums up free market ideology:

I would suggest that, for the continued development of society, it is necessary that people be periodically displaced from their occupations. And I think that it's a good thing that people have to prove their worth in the workplace or lose their jobs - you increase efficiency by eliminating redundant jobs, and that increase in efficiency benefits the society as a whole.

But we should recognise that it is ideology. Note that "increasing efficiency" does not entail improving rights, pay or conditions for workers. It means increasing profit for the rich. The fact that median pay in the US has increased at a rate of something like three quarters of a percentage point a year over the last 30 years is cause for celebration, as long as you are on the right side of that median. Hopefully, with a some room to spare.

In fact, there are some pretty good arguments that increased inequality makes socio-economic divisions more rigid and society as a whole less efficient. And that downsizing and labour insecurity can be quite negative to productivity.

This discussion of politics, far from being an issue peripheral to the question on robotics, should be central to our understanding of it. I don't believe that increased mechanisation will inevitably bring greater disenfranchisement and alienation. But it is mistake to think that there is some value-free implementation of progress, that will save the Third world and bring us closer to paradise.
 
 
Mirror
21:16 / 05.04.04
But we should recognise that it is ideology. Note that "increasing efficiency" does not entail improving rights, pay or conditions for workers. It means increasing profit for the rich.

The thing of it is, we are presently living in the most prosperous society in history. I'm simply arguing that this fact is true primarily due to the high level of technology that is commonly available. Human rights and working conditions are, as I pointed out earlier in the thread, vastly better in industrialized nations than elsewhere in the world, as is pay.

There's no argument that there is a divide between the wealthy and the poor in industrialized nations. However, from the perspective of people in the third world, that divide is between the wealthy and the slightly less wealthy. Our current prosperity demonstrates the value of mechanization - and this is why the rest of the world is struggling to catch up as quickly as they can.

Despite the propaganda, not every rich person gets that way by stepping on others on their way to the top. Some do - but many, and I would guess most, are simply normal, hardworking, intelligent human beings. The fact that you don't hear about the good guys as much as the crooks is simply an indictment of the tabloid media - which is just about all of it.
 
 
Lurid Archive
21:28 / 05.04.04
Sure, our wealth is due in part to mechanisation. But that doesn't mean that wealth inevitably flows from mechanisation. Political and economic conditions need to also be favourable. For this reason, I am much more pessimistic about the ability of technology to alleviate poverty. Much in the same way that improved farming methods and a surplus of food haven't solved world hunger.

As for the rich being nasty people...I don't think that privilege works like that. People can have, and can try to bring about, systematic advantages without being overtly monstrous. All this applies just as well globally as nationally. Though, as you rightly point out Mirror, the situation is much more grave on the global stage.
 
  
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