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Could Bin Laden's capture = Bush win?

15:52 / 09.03.04

So it seems that Bin Laden is growing more and more forced between a rock and a hard place.Given Bush's rise in poll numbers after Saddam's capture and given that Bin Laden is a much larger target, is there a possibility that Bush could sew up the presidential win this year if he captures Bin Laden before November? It goes without saying that his capture would be major PR coup for the Bush administration. The question is how possible is this and could there be any potential cracks in the windfall?

Cheap. Easy. Cruel.

16:00 / 09.03.04

It would most likely afford GWB better approval ratings. I would hope that it would not be enough to secure him for the next four years. However, if Bin Laden is captured, it will probably land him the presidency. The general public would likely feel safer and attribute that to our illustrious *cough* Commander-In-Chief.

16:31 / 09.03.04

Unless they do a "Churchill '45" and figure the war is over, no need for a wartime president anymore...

19:24 / 09.03.04

Mssr. Rove et Rumsfeld will have thought of that, sir. Look for Bin Laden captured and Los Angeles nuked by Kim Jong Il.

Matthew Fluxington

19:30 / 09.03.04

As much as I hate for it to happen and lead to a second Bush term, I think it would probably be a good thing if Bin Laden was brought to justice. I don't think it would end the threat of al Queda, but it would be a massive setback. Of course, it could make things much worse. Eh. It's such a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation.

Watch out, LA!

I'm Rick Jones, bitch

12:01 / 10.03.04

Bin Laden is a figurehead, isn't he? The brains behind the operation are a lot lower profile, so I understand. A Bin Laden Capture wouldn't make the US much safer, in fact I could see his death or capture inciting violent responses from his followers.

Since 9/11 we've been living in a fucking nightmare.

12:10 / 10.03.04

As I understand it, its not so much that Bin Laden is a figurehead, its that Al Queda lacks any kind of central structure. If anything Bin Laden is *more* important to the west as a hate/scare figure than he is as a functional part of an international terrorist network.

12:30 / 10.03.04

the conspiracy community has been abuzz for a while with the rumour that bin was caught some weeks ago, and that the announcement is being held until a fortnight or so before election day. one of those rare conspiracy theories that a brief wait and see attitude could equivocally disprove. if he does appear in chains just before the election it could well become one of the thorniest theories the subculture has yet come up with. check lobster, disinfo, fortean times, usual places for more guff along such lines.

16:11 / 10.03.04

It's feasible but not likely, particularly with US forces getting stretched thinner all the time. Osama can hang around in the Pakistani border area for a looooong time. If it does happen, Bush would definitely catch a windfall in the election, but I'm not sure if it would be enough to save him by that stage.

In terms of cracks, bin Laden's capture would probably lead to a sharp deterioration in the situation in the south and east of Afghanistan, various outposts of the al quaeda network deciding that now would be a good time to make their presence felt, and a temporary feeling of victory on the part of the US that would make them quite vulnerable for a limited time.

I think the decider in the election will not be the al quaeda issue, but the continually rising death toll in Iraq. If the US can't bring that situation satisfactorily under control, Bush will lost the election. He can try to sell himself as the 9/11 president all he wants, but the whole image of being commander-in-chief, a strong hand at the helm, etc, only works as long as body bags aren't arriving a dozen by the day.

For the first time in my life, I'm actually vaguely interested in the outcome of an american presidential election. They just go on for so bloody long....

17:15 / 10.03.04

If bin Laden were cornered he'd most likely try to take as many with him as he could, I kind of doubt he'd allow himself to be taken alive. (Plus he supposedly has a fanatical hardcore cadre that act as his bodyguards who probably possess similar dispositions.)

It'd be a hell of a firefight though...

The Pakistanis have allegedly bribed/coerced/threatened the Waziri tribes into helping them track him down though (No doubt because they don't relish the thought of US special forces doing it themselves). If he is in Pakistan's tribal area, he probably doesn't have much time left. Maybe its what he wants, to make one last grand show of force before his demise?

17:20 / 10.03.04

It seems odd that he actually would still be in Pakistan at this point... two, three years after they first said that's where he is?

Harold Washington died for you

07:17 / 11.03.04

I think it would be best if Usama is dead now...kidney failure, fatal testicle kick, etc., natural causes. The Iraq war was so built up on Saddam that after Saddam was captured the coverage dropped off a cliff. A good third of America will think Al-Qaeda is vanquished when we see Usama's respectfully prepared corpse on TV.

What will that mean? Hell if I know. Maybe the 200+ billion dollars of commercials for President Bush will make sense of it for me.

11:25 / 11.03.04

You just wait, Bushh will capture that Bin Laden Bastard AND get re-elected. The man's a fucking genius... Just you damn hippy-liberals wait.

11:35 / 11.03.04

Could someone fill me in - what are Bush's current poll ratings? How's it looking for him?

Also, bit off-topic but how will the likely legal action coming from the freed British Guatumato suspects play over there? I've just had a look through today's Standard and the editoral is screaming blue murder about the injustice. Pity it's took them till now, but better late than never, eh? I know it's unlikely it'll have any effect but I though it might be worth mentioning.

13:13 / 11.03.04

Poll numbers indicate anywhere from a large Kerry lead over Bush to a tie between the two, depending on the poll.