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Big Rock Causes Concern for 2014

We're The Great Old Ones Now

08:17 / 02.09.03

Asteroid spotted doing what asteroids do. My money's on Phoenix, Arizona.

Sax

08:44 / 02.09.03

Yeah, was listening to this on Radio 4 this morning. Isn't it odd how we always treat such news as a jolly jape to be gently poked fun at. One of these days we'll be laughing on the other side of our hemisphere.

sleazenation

08:45 / 02.09.03

i heard this on the news this morning with quoted odds of a million to one against impact. To which it was opined that it was more likely that you would be hit by this meteor than you were to win the national lottery (with odds of 14 million to one against). Which just struck my as poor reporting. Even I with my oh so tenious grip on maths can see the problems with that comparison...

Sax

08:45 / 02.09.03

And if you'd like to monitor the Near Earth Object Information Service yourself to keep updated on rocks in space, log on to this site.

We're The Great Old Ones Now

09:33 / 02.09.03

They have seven days' information and they can't predict the thing accurately yet. The vast likelihood is that it won't come anywhere near us - so I assume this is the NEOIS just making us aware that they're earning their keep. And a good thing, too. Eleven years' warning might almost be enough to do something about it if the thing was on a collision course.

Sax

09:54 / 02.09.03

God, I'll be 44 if it hits, and I really don't think I will be arsed to try to survive in a lawless post-apocalyptic landscape. I don't even have a cellar. Or a gun.

Ariadne

10:59 / 02.09.03

This could be the perfect answer to my lack of a pension fund. I never wanted to get old anyway.

sleazenation

11:19 / 02.09.03

its great to think 11 years warning would be enough, but i have my doubts - most western leaders in power at the time of the announcement would no longer be around closer to the time - and a massive spend in order to avert diasater would be very unpopular - i can see the western leaders embracing any scientific opinion that ridicules the idea of that particular asteroid hitting until it is too late rather than spend money. - sort of like the action that most western leaders are taking currently with regards to the problems of global warming...

Tryphena Absent

11:34 / 02.09.03

Hmm... of course Bush might see this as a great reason to make a giant weapon that can blow rocks out of space. The solution to global warming isn't destructive but this could be!

Lurid Archive

11:58 / 02.09.03

i can see the western leaders embracing any scientific opinion that ridicules the idea of that particular asteroid hitting until it is too late rather than spend money. - sleaze

As I understand it, which isn't that well, there is actually a good deal of debate about whether deflecting asteroids is possible. For a start, you need to know that you'll actually deflect it so that it won't hit the earth - lots of tricky calculations on an irregular shaped and constituted body. I mean, it might be soft and just absorb any nukes you throw at it, or it might split into lots of pieces etc etc. Its a tricky business. Luckily, really large scale disaster is very unlikely.

invisible_al

14:50 / 02.09.03

I remember seeing a not very good documentary on Asterioid Doom on BBC2 recently, current thinking seems to be land something on the asteroid after you've determined is composition. Big and metal is good if you're using nukes, loose and rocky is bad as you get a shotgun type effect, not good. And for a while there the nuclear weapons techs were leading the running until an inconvient loosely packed rocky asteroid exploded over Canada.

The Near spacecraft managed to do a landing even when it wasn't designed to land on an asterioid, which is pretty impressive. If you got there early enough an Ion engine might be good enough, if you had enough time.

It's probably a good thing that we might have a few nations other than America which have the expertise to mount this sort of thing in the next 5-10 years, they could run multiple missions. Heh perhaps India and Brazil could save the world this time.

Mourne Kransky

16:17 / 02.09.03

quoted odds of a million to one against impact

You know, sleazewillsaveusall, I remember Richard Burton telling me the chances of anything coming from Mars were a million to one... And look how far off the mark he was.

I'll be 58 by then and will have enjoyed a full and filth-filled life by then. Sorry youngsters! [Nelson]Haha[/Munce]

Perfect Tommy

19:39 / 02.09.03

...quoted odds of a million to one against impact. To which it was opined that it was more likely that you would be hit by this meteor than you were to win the national lottery (with odds of 14 million to one against). Which just struck my as poor reporting.

A million to one is lots more probable than 14 million to one, innit?

One interesting thing about this sort of probability is how the devastation of a meteor hit skews the numbers in a weird way. F'rinstance, say there's a 1 in a million chance of the meteor hitting us... but, it's expected to kill off half the planet. So suddenly, getting killed by a meteor adds up as 'more likely' than a number of more prosaic deaths.

Mystery Gypt

23:17 / 02.09.03

the report i read said it would hit with the force of "20 million hiroshimas" -- so i guess that means if it hits, we ALL go.

therefore, if i never step foot in the jungle, my chances of being killed by metor collision are *infinitely* higher than being eaten by any large jungle cat.

8===>Q: alyn

11:36 / 11.10.03

"Infinitely"? Isn't there a zoo in your town? They just found a real, live tiger living in some guy's house in the Bronx. Also a caiman, though that seems to have disappeared.

We're The Great Old Ones Now

17:40 / 12.10.03

Latest for anyone who was seriously concerned...

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